Russian Monarchy Overthrown in 1905

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
  • Start date

Deleted member 1487

What if the Russian Revolution of 1905 had succeeded and toppling the monarchy? Would there have been a WW1 or a Communist Revolution?
 
Assuming a democratic government and bearing in mind that Russia was the fastest growing economy in Europe then I doubt there would have been a communist government. Whether the Great War could have been avoided as a consequence I doubt.
 

Deleted member 1487

Assuming a democratic government and bearing in mind that Russia was the fastest growing economy in Europe then I doubt there would have been a communist government. Whether the Great War could have been avoided as a consequence I doubt.

I meant whether the Communist Revolution in 1917 could have been avoided without the monarchy.
 
I meant whether the Communist Revolution in 1917 could have been avoided without the monarchy.

If the post-revolutionary government gets caught up in the Great War then something like 1917 is very likely. One of the factors in the monarchy's downfall was the bursting of the illusion that the Tsar was above it all. In pre-revolutionary Russia part of what kept the Tsars on top in spite of the massive abuses of the political system was the image that the Tsars were simply unaware of the actions of their underlings.

If you have a successful 1905 revolution and that government gets involved in the Great War it won't have that illusion to fall back on. If the war goes anything remotely like it did OTL then the stresses of war and invasion will bring any new government to its knees. Even in Germany, a state that wasn't exactly on death's door like Nicholas' Russia, there was a revolution following defeat in the Great War and things got pretty hot in Italy, France, Britain, and the United States. I seriously doubt any government that emerges out of the 1905 revolution would be able to retain any legitimacy if it got into the war and performed anything like the Russians did OTL; if the first war they fight is a spectacular failure leading to the deaths of millions and large-scale devastation they won't last.

If, however, the revolutionary government is smart enough to hunker down, focus on rebuilding Russia, and backs off from Nicholas' pan-Slavicism they could stand a chance. They just have to stay very far away from the Great War. That said I have no idea what the odds are of the 1905 Revolution actually toppling the Tsar; setting up something along the lines of a British-style constitutional monarchy strikes me as more likely than a republic but as many brilliant writers have said truth has a way of being much stranger than fiction.
 
If the monarchy is overthrown, then I don't see Poland and Finland sticking around. Central Asia and/or the Caucasus might get messy too.
 
If you have a successful 1905 revolution and that government gets involved in the Great War it won't have that illusion to fall back on

I think we all are making a massive gap in forgetting the circumstances a successful 1905 revolution would bring ... or stepping back ... even an overthrow of the Czar and a real (ala whites and revo forces) or purely political civil war. The entire balance of power is based at this point on the French republic's alliance with the Czarist regime. If that regime is suddenly overthrown ... what do the French do? Should the government continue to support the Czar or his forces? Or would public opinion and support for the revolutionary/republican forces force the French to woo or open their arms to the opposing government? If the French simply step back and watch, would either victor in the revolution truly respect such an alliance afterwards? Direct French intervention is practically impossible, so it would have to make choices that would greatly affect the role and side whatever Russian came out of the revolution might choose ... especially a new government.
Germany can throw dozens of wrenches into these decisions as well. The same questions might be playing out in Germany as well . They can play off the opposite side the France might choose, or unlike France could directly influence the forces involved with their borders with Russia. At this stage the Russians have no navy to speak of except one in mutiny bottled up in the Black sea so the entire Baltic coast nation states within the empire would be easy to incite to revolt. Likewise the Kaiser might choose to back the Czar (family ties and royalty pay back for 1848) if the French seem to either be letting him fall or make public their attempt to woo a potential republican (or revolutionary) government. All of this adds up to create a scenario where I don't think you can assume hardly much at all that follows OTL. Throw into that what this would all do to the Balkan wars that are coming and the reaction of the Turks and British to these developments and you have to make hard predictions here to project or offer any opinions at all on the years afterwards.
 
If the post-revolutionary government gets caught up in the Great War then something like 1917 is very likely. One of the factors in the monarchy's downfall was the bursting of the illusion that the Tsar was above it all. In pre-revolutionary Russia part of what kept the Tsars on top in spite of the massive abuses of the political system was the image that the Tsars were simply unaware of the actions of their underlings.

If a 1905 revolution leads to democracy, then a disastrous WWI could lead to the re-instatement of the monarchy. Possibly as a figure head for a right wing nationalist regime.
 
Top