Russian German Armistice July 10th 1944

We had a recent thread about a Russian German Armistice in the Fall of 1944.

What if this was offered before Operation Bagration. Lets say after the Day Day invasion is ashore and unlikely to be driven back (lets say June 20th).

Hitler decides to make peace. In his mind on that day he decides all he needs to do is survive long enough for all the new "wonder" weapons to be produced. With Russia out he thinks he can hold off Britain and the USA long enough to do that.

He is willing to give Russia her May 1941 boundries back plus Poland all the way to the 1914 boundries of Germany (giving Russia Krakow, Warsaw, etc...), Hitler also throws in the Ruthenia.

German troops remain in Finland and Rommania (back to May 1941 boundries again) allowing the Germany to keep her Oil and Nickel supplies.

The Japanese Ambassador in Istanbul is more than happy to make all the necessary arrangments with the help of the German and Soviet Ambassadors there.

Stalin buys into this. Russia is bigger than it ever was and is very close to central Europe and he gets it for free. Germany will be very busy with the war for a long time. And if Germany is about to lose he can move into Rommania, Hungary and Czheckloslovakia just the same.

Germany will withdraw in one month behind the new line without interference from the Red Army or Partisans. Germany is not to carry out any demolitions or round up any civilians to be deported to Germany. Exchange of prisoners will be worked out after a year of peace.

Peace happens and the German pull back begins July 10th.
 
Not going to happen.

1) Hitler is never going to hand back territory which was actually part of Germany until Versailles. Not to mention what having Silesia in Soviet artillery range would mean to Germany the instant fighting resumed.

2) Stalin is settling for far less in Europe than OTL with no guarantees he will get more.

3) The precedent set is obviously disastrous for Stalin. If the next attempt on Hitler's life succeeds and the Ango-Americans accept a peace offer he does very poorly.

4) Likewise if Japan sues for peace then Stalin gains nothing in the Pacific.

5) In months the loss of Lend Lease aid will put the USSR in a deteriorating position and the only (partial) response will be to demobilize part of the Red Army's manpower.
 
Not going to happen.

1) Hitler is never going to hand back territory which was actually part of Germany until Versailles. Not to mention what having Silesia in Soviet artillery range would mean to Germany the instant fighting resumed.

2) Stalin is settling for far less in Europe than OTL with no guarantees he will get more.

3) The precedent set is obviously disastrous for Stalin. If the next attempt on Hitler's life succeeds and the Ango-Americans accept a peace offer he does very poorly.

4) Likewise if Japan sues for peace then Stalin gains nothing in the Pacific.

5) In months the loss of Lend Lease aid will put the USSR in a deteriorating position and the only (partial) response will be to demobilize part of the Red Army's manpower.

Your probably right. But since Hitler and Stalin are the only guys that can make decisions like this without anybody asking questions. Maybe one of them just makes a bad decision. I will throw out some counter arguments for fun.

on #1) Hitler could just think he could get back the lost territories someday.

on #2) Operation Bagration's big victory has not occured. The fighting was hard until then. Maybe Stalin gets worried that the German will not really resist the American and British but still resist him so he uses this opportunity lock in large gains and makes sure the Germans are still fighting the Americans and British.

on #3) If Russia was still in the war and if on July 20th Hilter is knocked off and Germany makes peace or is in chaos. All those countires still under German occupation may be able to set up their own governments. i.e. the Polish home army might rise up without much opposition.

on #4) What is south Sakhalin really worth anyway. He can still support the Communist Chinese just the same.

on #5) Even without any fighting or attritional losses going on as in OTL ????? Plus the evacuated areas are a lot better off infastructure wise than OTL.
 
You would need earlier pod's for the russians to consider this... perhaps kursk offensive being cancelled and manstein roughly handling forces on the southern front, which in turn limits stalin's reserves and leaves more first class german divisions in tact

bargration despite the build up, was something to be nervous about for the soviets... operation mars attacked on a lot of the same sectors and model and kluge slaughtered zhukov and inflicted casualties at around 10 to 1... if army group south doesn't get chopped up so bad and kursk doesn't burn out all the good panzer divisions, stalin might not want to go after army group center again and risk repeating mars
 
1) Nothing is going to convince Hitler to place his last unthreatened industrial region, the Ruhr already under air bombardment, in easy range of Soviet artillery. And after giving up all that ground and any defenses built in that area how many divisions will Hitler dare move away from the new border?

2) Stalin can see for himself the fighting going on in Normandy.

3) Your point doesn't appear to have anything to do with what I said. If the Western Allies use this arrangement as a precedent for a second treaty then the fate of any territories under German control will be decided by them, not the local inhabitants. In this case, however, Stalin won't be at the table. And Poland is already given to Stalin in your scenario.:confused:

4) Plus the Kuriles, Manchuria, North Korea...

5) The evacuated areas aren't worth much industrially and there will be attrition of vehicles, spare parts, etc regardless of whether fighting continues.
 
1) Nothing is going to convince Hitler to place his last unthreatened industrial region, the Ruhr already under air bombardment, in easy range of Soviet artillery. And after giving up all that ground and any defenses built in that area how many divisions will Hitler dare move away from the new border?

2) Stalin can see for himself the fighting going on in Normandy.

3) Your point doesn't appear to have anything to do with what I said. If the Western Allies use this arrangement as a precedent for a second treaty then the fate of any territories under German control will be decided by them, not the local inhabitants. In this case, however, Stalin won't be at the table. And Poland is already given to Stalin in your scenario.:confused:

4) Plus the Kuriles, Manchuria, North Korea...

5) The evacuated areas aren't worth much industrially and there will be attrition of vehicles, spare parts, etc regardless of whether fighting continues.

on #1) Most reasonable people around at the time (on June 20th 1944)would think Germany is gonna lose. The how and the when were unknown. But whenever it was, it was gonna be bad for the Nazi leadership. So if Hitler realizes this too, he figures he has to take some big risks to try and survive.

on #3) I guess what I am trying to say. It seems like in OTL the Allies really screwed up letting the Soviets put the Iron Curtain right across central Europe. i.e. the Soviets did a lot better than they should have.
A bunch of stuff could have messed that up. A sucessfull home army uprising, Rosevelt living, Churchill getting relected. Patton's army reaching Prauge. Maybe Htiler gets knocked off and the Germans offer to surrender the US/Britian only and maybe the British/American think thats a great idea. So mabye at the time Stalin thinks that the treaty offered is the best he can do.

on #4) Maybe the red Chinese can take some of that stuff for you (Manchuria) after a Japanese collapse. Maybe Stalin thinks in June 44 he isn't gonna get that stuff anyway.

on #5) You are probably right and it may be the clincher on this subject. The Soviets did seem to like all that stuff we gave them a bunch, especially the trucks. When did lend-lease end historically?????
 
1) Risk is not the correct term for massive territorial concessions right up to the border between Poland and the German industrial region in Silesia. And he never considered such risks OTL.

3) How much do you know about WWII? In fact the Soviets withdrew from some areas including Norway, Austria, Yugoslavia...literally the only question was precisely where the border would be in dividing Germany. So this idea that the British(Churchill!) and Americans were too generous is false.

A successful rising by the Polish Home Army is ASB territory, likewise Patton reaching Prague would have no significance as he would be ordered to pull back a bit further.

4) No, there isn't the slightest chance of Mao beating Japan as he was unable OTL without the Red Army to do it for him. Now you would have Stalin accepting less in Europe and nothing in Asia? Where to begin...

5) Not sure as to the exact date.
 

Eurofed

Banned
It could work if if the PoD is advanced some months. There was an OTL Soviet peace offer in February 1944 for the 1914 border. The PoD would be that Hitler, for whatever reason, decides to accept it.
 
As the other poster indicated the Russians were willing to deal. Although in February 1944 Hitler was not ready to deal. But with the Allies on the ground in Normandy, P51s over Berlin and your oil industry under bombardment (starting May 12th), Hitler might have changed his mind. Would Stalin be still willing to deal???? Probably not, The Soviet army did like those lend lease packaged rations a bunch. But maybe.

I can't believe Churchill and Roosevelt when they agreed to the various spheres of influence figured the iron curtain would go down as it did with complete Soviet domination and repression of eastern Europe for over 40 years.

If there was some other factors to change the politics like in Yougoslavia where the Soviets were not able to dominate so much.

If lets say Hitler was actually killed on July 20th 1944 and Germany descends into civil war chaos, maybe the various factions like the Slovak army, the Hungarian and Romanian armies, the Polish Home Army are able to establish themselves without any German reaction before the Soviets can arrive.

Maybe Stalin worries that something like that will happen.
 
In the event Hitler's death plunges Germany into chaos Stalin will simply crush whatever Home Army stands in the Red Army's path. In the unlikely event that the Germans on the spot don't do it first.

The Slovak, Romanian and Hungarian armies, of course, were easily crushed by the Soviets even with powerful German support so without that support the odds of Stalin worrying for a moment are vanishingly small.

I'm confident Churchill knew what Stalin was and FDR was learning slowly but since neither could start WWIII the Yalta terms held. Unfortunately for Eastern Europe.



Also, don't be so quick to accept as valid Eurofed's claim of a peace offer never before mentioned on so many available threads and without any evidence presented to support the claim.
 
The Yalta conference wouldn't have happened yet here.

but I guess I was kinda hoping that this would lead to some interesting discussion on what might have been an interesting summer and fall in France with a reinforced German army.

Oh well.
 
We had a recent thread about a Russian German Armistice in the Fall of 1944.

What if this was offered before Operation Bagration. Lets say after the Day Day invasion is ashore and unlikely to be driven back (lets say June 20th).

Hitler decides to make peace. In his mind on that day he decides all he needs to do is survive long enough for all the new "wonder" weapons to be produced. With Russia out he thinks he can hold off Britain and the USA long enough to do that.

He is willing to give Russia her May 1941 boundries back plus Poland all the way to the 1914 boundries of Germany (giving Russia Krakow, Warsaw, etc...), Hitler also throws in the Ruthenia.

German troops remain in Finland and Rommania (back to May 1941 boundries again) allowing the Germany to keep her Oil and Nickel supplies.

The Japanese Ambassador in Istanbul is more than happy to make all the necessary arrangments with the help of the German and Soviet Ambassadors there.

Stalin buys into this. Russia is bigger than it ever was and is very close to central Europe and he gets it for free. Germany will be very busy with the war for a long time. And if Germany is about to lose he can move into Rommania, Hungary and Czheckloslovakia just the same.

Germany will withdraw in one month behind the new line without interference from the Red Army or Partisans. Germany is not to carry out any demolitions or round up any civilians to be deported to Germany. Exchange of prisoners will be worked out after a year of peace.

Peace happens and the German pull back begins July 10th.

My thread? :) (https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=146352)

If this ever goes ahead, which is very unlikely. It will become a bitter bloodbath on the western front only only for the Soviets to step in at the end. Things could very well explode into WW3 if the two sides meet up.
 
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Also, don't be so quick to accept as valid Eurofed's claim of a peace offer never before mentioned on so many available threads and without any evidence presented to support the claim.

I've seen this claim made numerous times before by different posters.
 
The Soviets did send out peace feelers at times during the war. None were serious and at best tactical probes, after the 194 backstab there is no chance in hell of the U.S.S.R sticking to any deal with Germany even if Hitler did offer the Soviets the 1914 borders of Tsarist Russia and pull backing & handing over prisoners and slave labourers who had been shipped to Germany etc. Stalin would simply use this as breathing space to build up his forces and start rebuilding the ravaged infrastructure of the western U.S.S.R.

After the Germans and Allies have bled each other white and Stalin feels that the times is right the Red Army will march from Poland right into eastern Germany and likely Romania too to cut off German oil supplies. Lets face it after 1941 there is no way in hell the U.S.S.R’s leadership and population in general would tolerate the existence of Nazi Germany no co-existence could ever be possible In the long term. Thus a ‘’real’’ peace armistice/ceasefire would be signed without ASB.The Soviets would break such an agreement at their lesuire and would be right to do so.

Also as for gains in Asia well theres nothing the US can really do if the Soviets make a grab for Manchuria & Korea short of sending in troops themselves risking an ugly ‘’incident’’ with the Red Army.

As for the effect on the other fronts allied morale will take a hit, after all much of the German armies in the east will be freed up for other fronts. That will make thing very hard for the Allies in Italy, as the German forces on that front were already able to fight the Allies on near even terms due to Albert Kesselring’s skilful leadership. A few hundred thousand German troops freed up from the east, make things much grimmer for the Allied forces there possibly stalling their advance until the end of the war. Fighting in France will be much more bitter and Allied progress will slow to a craw at several points. The Germans will eventully be pushed back the Rhine but at much higher cost than OTL.
 
In the unlikely event this happens. this does make it tough on the Western Front particularly Italy, as has been said before. I think this only delays German defeat but it does make the Allied victory much more expensive.
 
The Germans are both relived in the short term that the appalling pressure on the east front has eased but terrified as to what will happen if the war drags on in the west and the Red Army now much closer to the Reich remains mobilized along the border. They all know what happened in the east, and damn well know they can expeact scant mercy if the Russians ever reach them. (Or the French for that matter the French troops were brutal towards the Germans and for much the sane reasons as the Soviets)

The Soviets are happy that their country has been liberated without additional cost in blood to solders and civilians living in occupied areas. the men remaining in the areas that had been occupied by the Nazi’s may be keep at work on the farms or begin re-construction work. Still lets face it the mood will be that this is a temporary ceasefire not a long term peace deal and Stalin would present it as such even if you’d need to read between the l’’ines of Pravda’’ as Soviet citizens had learned to do.
 
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