Russian expansionism after losing Great Northern War

If Russia loses the Great Northern War or a war analogous to it around the year 1700 and fails to get Ingria (the piece of land St. Petersburg stands on), where will Peter the Great turn? The dude had an obsession with ships. Try again for Baltic, but with a more southern approach? Black Sea? Far East? Indian Ocean?

Additional challenges ITTL:
-Baltic Sea is mostly a Swedish lake, as they took Denmark and now control both sides of the straits. Baltic Sea thus only gives access to Prussia, Poland-Lithuania, and Sweden.
-Ottomans are still going strong and taking Istanbul isn't an option. Ottomans also control Crimea, though that can be taken. Black Sea only gives access to Ottomans and Poland-Lithuania, and later on Romania
-Chinese are less of a failure and are either able to hold the Russian part of Manchuria, so no Vladivostok or the other cities in the area. Any Russian settlements there must be a bit further north.
-Poland-Lithuania and Sweden are a bit wanked ITTL, so taking much of the Baltic isn't easy. Something like Lithuania could be done, though.
-Russia still needs to be able to have some colonies, even just Alaska is enough
 
When looking to gain access to the sea, Russia will probably look to expand towards the Black and Mediterranean Seas, almost certainly at Ottoman expense.

An alliance with Austria would easily give both powers the support they need to wage a successful offensive war against the Ottomans.

TTL's St. Petersburg* may be either Constantinople or a city established in Crimea.
 
-Chinese are less of a failure and are either able to hold the Russian part of Manchuria, so no Vladivostok or the other cities in the area. Any Russian settlements there must be a bit further north.
If Russia goes on to lose the Great Northern War, it probably wouldn't ever be powerful enough to challenge the Qing later when Russia expands into Siberia. As demonstrated IOTL, the Qing can hold their own against an ascendant Russian Empire. With a weakened Russia, the Qing or even any Chinese successor state butterflied into existence could defeat the Russians, technological disadvantage or not.
 
I'd say it wouldn't be a colossal setback for Russia even with no St Petersburg, the Russian aimed for the Baltics already once before. By 1700 the Crimean Khanate still existed as well.
 
Bump. Also, while the Treaty of Nerchinsk did happen, Amur was 160 years later, and it is the most populated part of Russian Far East
 
A Russia that loses the Great Northern War will be weakened in so many ways its hard to asses whether they would even survive as masters of the entire Russian speaking territories. First of all, Tsar Peter the Great's modernization attempts would had been rewarded with a slap to face, so we could perfectly see him losing power and Russia going back to its old inward looking and isolated self. But if we decide to be kind and assume he brushes off any backlash, you need to consider that they would not only be losing any chace to expand west, they would also have to recognnice Ukranian "independence" as a Swedish puppet state, making expantion to Moldavia and the Balkand an impossibility. This only leaves them with the Caucassus route, but the Ottoman Empire is an ally of Sweden, so you have now run out of any means for expantion except Siberia, and maybe Central Asia if they get that far. Finally, you should also take into account that the uber-Sweden that will emerge from the war is not going to be a friendly neighbour: her vassal Poland-Lithuania will want its old Belorussian terrietories back, and they themselves may put their eyes upon northern cities like Archangelsk. So, in short, Russia's only shot at staying relevant after a defeat in the GNW is forming a new coalition with countries scared of Sweden's newfound power (even more than before the war) and whoever Carl Gustav manages to piss of next (bets are on everybody), whether they manage to do this is entirely dependant on what the outlook of European politics is after the end of the ALT-War of Spanish Succesion, in which Sweden is likely to get embroiled somehow. By the way, Sweden can't just "take Denmark", thats a diplomatic impossibility at the time (and probably also at about any other time). If for some reason the Swedes are to demand more from Denmark then they would take the whole of Norway, but the thing is, Norway cannot be governed and controlled through its land connection with Sweden, but only through its southern and western coasts, were its population centers are. For this they need to achieve control of both sides of the straits BEFORE they try to claim it. Interestingly, this might decide which side of the war to support: If they want hegemony in that part of the Baltic they need Britain's and Holland's blessing, which they may obtain by helping them against the French. That said, I would not take Carl Gustav acting that rationally to be a given by any stretch.
 
Why couldn't Denmark be de facto annexed? That's what Danes did to Norway and Sweden. Sweden already took half of Denmark proper, too, IOTL. Kingdoms weren't very solid things back then, and while balance of power was a thing that other monarchs considered, it's not like every annexation had major backlash. Poland was cut up and West Europe was like lol k.
 
Top