How do you imagine the demographic transition will be in this ATL Ethiopia compared with OTL Ethiopia? Also how will different groups differ in the demographic transition and in general in Demographic trends? Groups like rich and poor, urban and rural, educated and uneducated, differing ethnicities and religious groups?

Will Ethiopia see immigration? From where will immigrants come? Africa, Middle East, Europe or somewhere else? What will be the motivation of immigrants to Ethiopia? Refuge, emplyment, studies, family reunion? What position in society will immigrants have? What will be Ethiopias position on immigration?

Will Ethiopia experience emigration? Who will emigrate from Ethiopia and why will some emigrate?

How will Ethiopias demographis look like?
View attachment 385501
It depends on how many Russians flee to Ethiopia because of World War 1 and/or the Russian Civil War - I made a guess of an initial 500,000 refugees that grows to roughly 1-2 million by the late 30s-40s which is around the beginning of the Second World War. I'd assume that Ethiopia's population will be around 14-15 million by 1918 so the Russians may make up roughly 1-2% of Ethiopia's population by the time of its joining in World War 2 - by the time the early 2000s rolls around, Ethiopia's total European-descended populace might make up around 9-12% of the entire population but again, I'm not the best with estimating numbers and statistics. You'll probably see a sizable amount nobles and ministers flee to Ethiopia with the Romanovs as well as members of the intelligentsia that settle in the developed urban centers as Ethiopia accepts those fleeing the RCW. Try asking Incanian, they'll probably know more.

Ethiopia is most likely going to see immigration but it depends on the time period - Ethiopia could see a second wave of Russian immigration from the Soviet Union, peasants and intellectuals that are disillusioned with Lenin's Bolshevik government but the White Russo-Ethiopian government may not accept them. Immigrants from Europe is plausible in the 30s and going to be a given in WW2, especially Orthodox Christian Eastern Europeans (i.e. Greeks and Yugoslavs) which may or may not permanently settle in Ethiopia - there's also going to be the fact that the Italian population of Ethiopia is going to increase when Ethiopia has annexed Eritrea (and possibly Italian Somaliland). By the time of the 90s, there could be another wave of Russian migrants immigrating from the former Soviet Union but again, they might not be excepted. As for migrants from Africa, that could happen as Africans might not want to live in the newly independent but underdeveloped African countries and opt to immigrate to the much more developed Ethiopia and I can see white South Africans/Rhodesians/Portuguese/etc. fleeing to Ethiopia in the 90s. I doubt there are going to be many migrants from the Middle East, considering how Orthodox Christians are going to dominate Ethiopia where the Muslim populace is dwindling as the White Russians take power in 1917 and consolidate their grip. The reasons that you mention about motivation are quite enough, although I'm not sure about the position of immigrants in White Russian Ethiopia - depending on pre-war ties and whatnot, they could be quite high or low. Some Ethiopians may not like the amount of European immigrants flowing in but you could see the majority of ethnic Ethiopians supporting immigration but once again, it depends on the time period.

As for emigration, it could be White Russians who don't want to stay in a still-developing Ethiopia when they can instead opt for western Europe or the United States - same might go for other expatriates during the period of World War 2.
 
I think that if we are going to continue this thread be should get some concepts for understanding this ATL. I have listed some suggestions below, the suggestion is italicised while the descriptition is not.

Old Russians
Russian immigrants to Ethiopia before the Russian Revolution

White Russians
Russian immigrants to Ethiopia after the Russian revolution

Ethiopians of Russian descent
Ethnic Russian citizens of Ethiopia

Ethiopian Russian/Ethiop Russian
Person of mixed ethnic Russian and native Ethiopian descent

Do anyone have some additional concepts that would be usefull for elaborating on this topic?


We should ask about the old russian immigrants. Who were they? Why did they move to Ethiopia? What was their gender balance? How were their relationships in Ethiopia with other Russians aswell as native Ethiopians? If i were to guess i would say that most of the old russians would be govorment functionaries aswell as male.

When we ask about the white russian immigrants similar question should be asked. But if i were to guess or give a statement based on my opinion i would say. That the gender balance would be more evenly split or perhaps even a majority of women over men(among adults, the gender proportion among youth i think will be even). These immigrants would likely be anti communist, monarchist and religious. They would also be well educated.

Would the Russian migrants intermarry with the people they encounter? I assume that if the early migrants are disproportionally male then they will take native wifes, perhaps multiple each. The class and social standing of migrants will also determine if they intermarry. In the end i think that most would intermarry but a minority would be endogamous.

Another thing that should be elaborated on is the nature of Russian Ethiopia. What does "Russian" in front of Ethiopia signify? Does it imply Ethiopia being part of the russian cultural orbit? Does it imply Ethiopia getting Russian immigration, maybe in a large scale? Does it it imply linguistic russification?
Additional concepts . . . I don't know, it seems you've explained pretty well. Do you have any other ideas regarding this concept?

The old Russian immigrants might have been the more adventurous Russians like the OTL Cossacks that accompany Nikolai to Africa or those whom the Russian government want to get rid in a political exile. The old Russian immigrants might be predominantly male as a result of their being soldiers, administrators, ministers and whatnot in the Russian Somaliland colony. There might be an increase of Russian women but I'm not sure how many would be brought to Sagallo, their numbers will most likely increase from the chaos of World War 1 and/or the Russian Civil War. You might see the rise of the intelligentsia which includes mixed-race Russian-Ethiopians that may become government functionaries but they may also become ministers, diplomats, generals, etc. as apart of the Russo-Ethiopia intelligentsia. I doubt they'd be treated any differently in Russia but the same might not go for western Europe or the United States. A right-wing/monarchist and anti-communist intelligentsia is going to be quite influential throughout Ethiopia as their numbers continue to increase.

Eh, "Russian Ethiopia" would most likely mean to other European powers that Ethiopia is a Russian possession in Africa - similar to French Algeria or British East Africa. It may imply that Ethiopia is apart of their Empire, in union with the House of Romanov and it is obviously going to see large-scale Russian immigration during WW1 and the RCW but immigration prior to these events may be limited. I can see some part of the Tigrean and Amharic languages becoming Russified with loan words and whatnot - it'd be interesting to see Russification of the northern Ethiopian people whom expand into the Horn of Africa with support from the Russian government.
 
Additional concepts . . . I don't know, it seems you've explained pretty well. Do you have any other ideas regarding this concept?
Some suggestions for concepts.
- Something to describe the settlers from the orthodox highlands in traditional non-orthodox areas
- Something to describe russian immigrants coming to Ethiopia after Stalin. Perhaps "new russians" could do?
- Different political parties
- Different court factions
The old Russian immigrants might have been the more adventurous Russians like the OTL Cossacks that accompany Nikolai to Africa or those whom the Russian government want to get rid in a political exile. The old Russian immigrants might be predominantly male as a result of their being soldiers, administrators, ministers and whatnot in the Russian Somaliland colony. There might be an increase of Russian women but I'm not sure how many would be brought to Sagallo, their numbers will most likely increase from the chaos of World War 1 and/or the Russian Civil War. You might see the rise of the intelligentsia which includes mixed-race Russian-Ethiopians that may become government functionaries but they may also become ministers, diplomats, generals, etc. as apart of the Russo-Ethiopia intelligentsia. I doubt they'd be treated any differently in Russia but the same might not go for western Europe or the United States. A right-wing/monarchist and anti-communist intelligentsia is going to be quite influential throughout Ethiopia as their numbers continue to increase.

Eh, "Russian Ethiopia" would most likely mean to other European powers that Ethiopia is a Russian possession in Africa - similar to French Algeria or British East Africa. It may imply that Ethiopia is apart of their Empire, in union with the House of Romanov and it is obviously going to see large-scale Russian immigration during WW1 and the RCW but immigration prior to these events may be limited. I can see some part of the Tigrean and Amharic languages becoming Russified with loan words and whatnot - it'd be interesting to see Russification of the northern Ethiopian people whom expand into the Horn of Africa with support from the Russian government.
If industrialisation is spearheaded by speakers of Russian, then some words that don't yet have a Amharic equivalent will likely adopt these Russian words. Similar to how today English words for new inventions are quickly adopted by other languages, this is becouse English has become the language of science and businees.
 
Last edited:
Some suggestions for concepts.
- Something to describe the settlers from the orthodox highlands in traditional non-orthodox areas
- Something to describe russian immigrants coming to Ethiopia after Stalin. Perhaps "new russians" could do?
- Different political parties
- Different court factions

If industrialisation is spearheaded by speakers of Russian, then some words that don't yet have a Amharic equivalent will likely adopt these Russian words. Similar to how today English words for new inventions are quickly adopted by other languages, this is becouse English has become the language of science and businees.
OTL, Tigrean and Amharic Orthodox Christians expanding into the southern lands did have an Amharic designation but I can't remember it right now - something like administrator or governor, I'll need to look into it. Russian immigrants fleeing Stalin may be referred to as "New Russians" along with the White Russians fleeing the RCW and Lenin's Bolshevik government but they could be an entirely different generation of Russians. Different political parties could include say, these:
  • Ethiopian Monarchist Party
  • National Ethiopian Democratic Party
  • Ethiopian Social Democratic Party
  • Russo-Ethiopian/Habesha Nationalist Party
  • Ethiopian Fascist Party
  • Ethiopian Constitutional Democratic-Liberal Party (could be OTL Russian Kadet Party fleeing to Ethiopia)
  • (Underground) Communist Party of Ethiopia
Court factions are likely to be split between OTL lines and some others - reactionaries and conservatives vs. reformists and intellectuals as IOTL but there might also be a more fundamentalist Orthodox Christian faction against the secularists or Christians vs. Muslims and perhaps Jews.

I agree that Russian might become one of Ethiopia's principal foreign languages (like French or English) and I can see certain Russian words being utilized for the purpose you stated.
 
OTL, Tigrean and Amharic Orthodox Christians expanding into the southern lands did have an Amharic designation but I can't remember it right now - something like administrator or governor, I'll need to look into it.
Will be interesting. Something like "administrator or governor" seems like the Amharic an Tigrean christians were regarded as the ruling group or an elite group.
Russian immigrants fleeing Stalin may be referred to as "New Russians" along with the White Russians fleeing the RCW and Lenin's Bolshevik government but they could be an entirely different generation of Russians.
OTL after Stalin died his succesor stopped the excesses fo Stalinism. Therefore since persecution declined after Stalin died and de-stalinisation was implemented, Russia now had a new politial environemnt. This means different push factors, factors that drive emigration. And since immigrants coming to Ethiopia from Russia after Stalin's death, do so from a different Russia, they should be regarded as a different era or wave of immigration.
Different political parties could include say, these:
  • Ethiopian Monarchist Party
  • National Ethiopian Democratic Party
  • Ethiopian Social Democratic Party
  • Russo-Ethiopian/Habesha Nationalist Party
  • Ethiopian Fascist Party
  • Ethiopian Constitutional Democratic-Liberal Party (could be OTL Russian Kadet Party fleeing to Ethiopia)
  • (Underground) Communist Party of Ethiopia
Court factions are likely to be split between OTL lines and some others - reactionaries and conservatives vs. reformists and intellectuals as IOTL but there might also be a more fundamentalist Orthodox Christian faction against the secularists or Christians vs. Muslims and perhaps Jews.
Might there be a Christian Orthodox political party?
I agree that Russian might become one of Ethiopia's principal foreign languages (like French or English) and I can see certain Russian words being utilized for the purpose you stated.
Assuming that the rest of history goes as OTL, then i assume Russian might be a principal foreign language up to the 90s, after which English will come to dominate.
 
Will be interesting. Something like "administrator or governor" seems like the Amharic an Tigrean christians were regarded as the ruling group or an elite group.

OTL after Stalin died his succesor stopped the excesses fo Stalinism. Therefore since persecution declined after Stalin died and de-stalinisation was implemented, Russia now had a new politial environemnt. This means different push factors, factors that drive emigration. And since immigrants coming to Ethiopia from Russia after Stalin's death, do so from a different Russia, they should be regarded as a different era or wave of immigration.

Might there be a Christian Orthodox political party?

Assuming that the rest of history goes as OTL, then i assume Russian might be a principal foreign language up to the 90s, after which English will come to dominate.
They were often regarded as the elites but there were a handful of elite Oromos and Somalis in the eastern and southern provinces.

Hmm, perhaps this causes a socialist movement to rise among a few members of the young Russo-Ethiopian intelligentsia? Perhaps not but political liberalization in Ethiopia might be taking place around the 60s.

It's fair to say there's going to be some western European-esque Ethiopian Christian Democrat Party.

As for English, it might become one of the more important languages as Ethiopia becomes increasingly aligned with the United States but I think Russian would remain prominent as a national language alongside the Amharic language.
 
Last edited:
Ever heard of Libertatia?

Libertalia was purported to be a pirate republic founded in 17th century Madagascar. Peter the Great and Catherine the Great in their naval craze questioned ambassadors about the existence of Libertatia, they even briefly toyed with supporting the pirate republic (though it is likely never existed in the first place). Say that the Tsars in their naval craze does send a good part of his fleet to Madagascar and sets up a colony.

The colony flourishes for several years staffed with Russian emigres - how best to get rid of Russian political enemies, Poles, Jews, or Gypsies other than send them to outer-Siberia (parts of which included the fur-colony in Alaska)?

The colony in Madagascar flourishes, gets overpopulated, and starts to expand - Ethiopia would be a good place to expand.

There were in fact pirate chieftains and a confederation of Pirate/Merchant descendants (Ratsimilaho son of Thomas Tew being the most famous; but also the Arab, Indian and European descendants of traders and pirates all along the Northwest and throughout the East Coast) fought against one another and later European settlers and potential colonists.

Better yet understanding the critical position of Madagascar in trans-oceanic trade, Russians could align themselves with East Coast populations to conquer the forming proto-Merina people inland and consolidate most of the island.
 
Ever heard of Libertatia?

Libertalia was purported to be a pirate republic founded in 17th century Madagascar. Peter the Great and Catherine the Great in their naval craze questioned ambassadors about the existence of Libertatia, they even briefly toyed with supporting the pirate republic (though it is likely never existed in the first place). Say that the Tsars in their naval craze does send a good part of his fleet to Madagascar and sets up a colony.

Hate to rain on your parade but you'd need a LOT of changes in a history of Russia. :)

Peter's naval craze had been limited to the Baltic Sea, Sea of Azov and Caspian Sea and the less is said about quality of his ships, the better. Not to mention that most of his reign he had been a little bit busy fighting Sweden (for which purpose he needed all his Baltic navy) or the Ottomans (as a result of this adventure there was no Russian fleet on the Black sea until the reign of Catherine II and even then only after he 1st Ottoman War).

As far as Catherine II is concerned, travel of the Baltic squadron to the Mediterranean was a prolonged affair with not even all ships being able to make it out of the Baltic, some of them falling apart by the time they reached friendly Britain and most of the rest in need for the serious repairs. Regarding her being able to send a good part of her fleet to Madagascar, she simply could not afford such a luxury even if she was crazy enough to entertain the idea: whatever she had had been only marginally adequate for the wars with Sweden and Ottoman Empire. Not that she was a realistic candidate to entertain such an idea: there was not enough people in Russia to settle the territories she acquired from the Ottoman Empire (hence invitation of the Germans, Greeks, Serbs, Albanians, etc.).

The rest of the Russian monarchs hardly suffered from a naval craze (most of the XVIII century Russian Baltic fleet had been happily rotting in Kronstadt) and hardly were into sending any significant naval force (as opposite to the individual ships) beyond Mediterranean.

The colony flourishes for several years staffed with Russian emigres
There was a Polish-Hungarian adventurer and pirate, Mauricy Beniowsky, exiled to Kamchatka for participation in Bar Confederation. He fled to Europe via Macau and Mauritius, arriving in France. In 1773, Beniowsky reached agreement with the French government to establish a trading post on Madagascar. By 1774 180 of the original 237 had been dead and his main "achievement" was disruption of the French trade on Mauritius. He boasted that the natives declared him their emperor but the inspectors visiting colony in 1776 found that his reports had been almost complete BS (including relations with the natives). Colony was abandoned.

In 1785 he sailed to America and made a deal with two Baltimore traders: monetary investment in return for a regular supply of slaves. The natives were not cooperating and he was captured to re-emerge in 1786 but the French (who had been unhappy with interruption of their trade) sent a small military force over to Madagascar to deal with Beniowsky. On 24 May 1786, Beniowsky was ambushed and killed by these troops, and was buried on the site of his encampment.

So the chances for a flourishing colony in the late 1770s had been quite low (unlike French, the Russians would not even have any territories anywhere close to Madagascar, which makes regular supplies impossible).


- how best to get rid of Russian political enemies, Poles, Jews, or Gypsies other than send them to outer-Siberia (parts of which included the fur-colony in Alaska)?

The Poles could end up in Siberia only if they were implicated in an uprising but neither Jews nor Gypsies had been sent to Siberia (or anywhere else) just based upon ethnic principle (did you hear about the Pale?). Needless to say that Alaska is not a part of Siberia and was not used as a penal colony. BTW, why bother with sending <whoever> to Madagascar when there was plenty of the suitable places within Russian Empire: Caucasus (until it was completely conquered), Siberia, Sakhalin.

Not sure what "outer-Siberia" means? Perhaps Siberia + Russian Far East?
 
Probably. Would the Second Italo-Abyssinian war still happen in a Russian Ethiopia timeline?
I've rethought my answer to this question and came up with a new answer.

The Italians might be spiteful regarding the Russian annexation of Ethiopia in an area where they wished to have influence, although it won't be at the OTL level at Adwa and I can see border disputes happening between Russo-Ethiopian forces and Italian forces at border towns such as Badme in Eritrea. The Italians could attempt to build their fort at Wal-Wal as IOTL and if they're successful, then there's another pretext to an Italo-Ethiopian War if Russo-Ethiopian and Italian forces clash at Wal-Wal as IOTL which sees hundreds of deaths on both sides. If the Italians launch their attack as IOTL, it could see more deaths on Italy's turf in Somalia as Russo-Ethiopian forces guarding the Ethiopian border are going to be more well-trained and better equipped than their OTL Ethiopian counterparts.

If the Italians decide to invade as OTL, they could become bogged down in Tigray where the Ethiopians adopt a more offensive role in the north and a defensive on in the south - if extensive defenses are erected in the northern Tigrean province as a result of the Russo-Ethiopian government and/or Emperor being more paranoid from a European invasion. Same is going to go for the Ogaden where the African Hindenburg Line was established OTL but it may be more stationed closer to the Somali border. The Russo-Ethiopian Army is going to be able to mobilize larger numbers of men - maybe around 500,000 - as compared to the Italians' 125,000 northern forces. If the Christmas Offensive is launched as OTL, then the Italians might be pushed back to Italian Eritrea whereas an "Ogaden Offensive" in unison with the Christmas Offensive is the same except it might even push into Italian Somaliland and potentially force the Italians to the negotiating table.

If the Italians manage to somehow occupy a White Russian Ethiopia (which probably won't happen), then there could be the rise of an Ethiopian Patriot movement as well but it sees local Europeans taking part in the resistance as the Italians don't discriminate between the Ethiopians and Europeans in reprisals which earns the ire of the European powers and sees them supplying the Russo-Ethiopian resistance with arms and whatnot.
 
@Incanian, how many prominent White Russian generals flee to Ethiopia during and/or after the RCW? How much influence do they have on the battle doctrine and tactics of the Imperial Russo-Ethiopian Army?
 
@Incanian, how many prominent White Russian generals flee to Ethiopia during and/or after the RCW? How much influence do they have on the battle doctrine and tactics of the Imperial Russo-Ethiopian Army?

I'm not sure, however I believe some would leave to Ethiopia, and I think they would infuse predominately Russian tactics in the military.
 
I'm not sure, however I believe some would leave to Ethiopia, and I think they would infuse predominately Russian tactics in the military.
I can see Wrangel and maybe even Brusilov fleeing to Ethiopia. Perhaps in Ethiopia, Russian military doctrine is reformed. Perhaps Kornilov and Denikin are sent to Ethiopia if the Kornilov Affair goes as IOTL, alongside with the Romanovs if the October Revolution doesn't kill them off.
 
Last edited:
Top