Russian Ethiopia, Eritreia, Somalia?

[Grumpy young Man]

How possible realistic could have been this scenario? IRL Italians made their first attempts pretty late in 19.cent so the window of opportunity for other countries exists as well.

I find the main obstacle for that the vicinity of russian ports to their potentional colonization efforts as their main problem. Maybe if they exert their influence hard enough on Persia so they get a lease on some of their coastal cities in the Gulf.

I find this "what if" relationship certainly more cozy than that of Ethiopia with Italians. Broader orthodox/eastern churches unity and all that.

And how would British react in the end? They wouldn't feel all that warm and fuzzy since their shipping through Suez and naval base in Aden,Yemen would be more exposed.

 

[Fiver]

How possible realistic could have been this scenario? IRL Italians made their first attempts pretty late in 19.cent so the window of opportunity for other countries exists as well.

I find the main obstacle for that the vicinity of russian ports to their potentional colonization efforts as their main problem. Maybe if they exert their influence hard enough on Persia so they get a lease on some of their coastal cities in the Gulf.

Russian interests probably won't extend that far south. Unless they win the Crimean War and win it handily, they won't have any chance of extending power to the south. And Britain would treat Russia's attempt to acquire these colonies as a threat to vital British supply lines.

 

[Max Sinister]

I had this in the old version of the Chaos TL, but it was admittedly a big Russiawank, and also had a 1200 POD.

 

[Sumeragi]

Wouldn't the Russians be too busy with the Great Game and the Ottomans to have much thoughts on Africa?

 

[kasumigenx]

I had this in the old version of the Chaos TL, but it was admittedly a big Russiawank, and also had a 1200 POD.

Kievian Rus is Ruthenia not the Russia established by Muscovy, the OTL expansion of Muscovy was a consequence of the Mongols attacking and pillaging Eastern Europe, I think there is less pressure for Ruthenia/Kievian Rus to expand.

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

Wouldn't the Russians be too busy with the Great Game and the Ottomans to have much thoughts on Africa?

Pretty much, I mean theoretically their motivation would be a warm water port, but they either have or can have these from existing areas (Port Arthur, Constantinople, etc.), Russia has to be a much stronger power and accomplish many more of her goals before she can be a player in Africa, of any sort.

In any case Russia needs to be ready as Britain will see it as a Russian attempt to challenge Britain's hold over the Persian Gulf, along with a threat to British holdings in the Sudan and by extension, Egypt.

 

[RamscoopRaider]

How's this

Maybe say country X owns this territory and gets in a war with country Y

Country X has little money so takes a loan from Russia to pay for this war, and secures it with this territory as collateral

Country X loses but not too badly and cannot repay the loan, Russia gets this territory by default

Yes it is unlikely, any blatant impossibilities?

 

[Sumeragi]

Country X has little money so takes a loan from Russia to pay for this war, and secures it with this territory as collateral

If I remember correctly, Russia was a debtor country, not a creditor.

 

[Enigmajones]

Once had a TL with a Russian Libya, and a Napoleonic France. Which i should update....

 

[Strategos' Risk]

If I remember rightly, Russia had a good relationship with Ethiopia.

 

[Shnurre]

In fact a group of Cossacks founded in 1889 a settlement near modern Djibouti by an adventurer called Ashinov. They were quickly moved out from there by French.
Maybe if the expedition had been backed by Czar the settlement would have succeeded (if it could have been somehow arranged with French ). Or if the expedition had been 5-10 years earlier( before the France claimed that area).
And given Russian Djibouti, Rodina’s influence on orthodox Ethiopia( and Eritrea as part of it in late 19th century) would certainly be massive. Maybe massive enough to enforce vassalage.


Here are prooflinks in Russian.
Here’s an article http://www.ruskazak.ru/43/73/.
Here’s a book on topic http://militera.lib.ru/bio/lunochkin_av_ashinov/index.html
And here’s a name of a French book on topic: Jean Robert Constantin. L’Archimandrite Paisi et l’ataman Achinoff. Paris, 1891.

 

[von Adler]

The Russians did send a military mission to Ethiopia in the 1880s and sold mountain artillery to the Ethiopians (it outranged the Italian counterpart at Adua 1896 and was a big part of the Ethiopian victory). If you combine the settlement in Djibouti with this, you may get something.

Perhaps an Ottoman-Russian understanding instead of continued conflict after the Crimean War? The French screw the Ottomans somehow, Russian prisoners having been extremely well treated by the Ottomans, thawing of relations and eventually an alliance against an alliance of Italy-Austria-France that are acting aggressive in the Balkans and North Africa.

The Russians get to Djibouti, extend massive influence in Ethiopia, sailing through the straits with Ottoman blessing.

 

[couldawouldashoulda]

maybe for some reason the russians manage to acquire it through the berlin conference?

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

If I remember correctly, Russia was a debtor country, not a creditor.

The time by which Russia was entering anything equivalent to an age of colonialism (and Central Asia was basically Russia's colonial empire... so what more do they need...) was indeed a time when Russia was an industrializing power, so a lot of capital needed, not a lot to spare.

 

[Sumeragi]

In fact a group of Cossacks founded in 1889 a settlement near modern Djibouti by an adventurer called Ashinov. They were quickly moved out from there by French.
Maybe if the expedition had been backed by Czar the settlement would have succeeded (if it could have been somehow arranged with French ). Or if the expedition had been 5-10 years earlier( before the France claimed that area).
And given Russian Djibouti, Rodina’s influence on orthodox Ethiopia( and Eritrea as part of it in late 19th century) would certainly be massive. Maybe massive enough to enforce vassalage.


Here are prooflinks in Russian.
Here’s an article http://www.ruskazak.ru/43/73/.
Here’s a book on topic http://militera.lib.ru/bio/lunochkin_av_ashinov/index.html
And here’s a name of a French book on topic: Jean Robert Constantin. L’Archimandrite Paisi et l’ataman Achinoff. Paris, 1891.

The Russians did send a military mission to Ethiopia in the 1880s and sold mountain artillery to the Ethiopians (it outranged the Italian counterpart at Adua 1896 and was a big part of the Ethiopian victory). If you combine the settlement in Djibouti with this, you may get something.

The Russians get to Djibouti, extend massive influence in Ethiopia, sailing through the straits with Ottoman blessing.

Hmmm.... Yes, Djibouti is probably the maximum extent of actual annexation, with Ethiopia being a sphere.

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

maybe for some reason the russians manage to acquire it through the berlin conference?

At the Berlin Conference they didn't have a reason to be in on it, again, Russia's imperial interests are:

1. China

2. Central Asia

3. The Balkans and Eastern Europe.

Ultimately for Russia it's all about getting a warm water port that doesn't freeze in the winter like Vladivostok or St. Petersburg, they got Port Arthur in China and that did well for them until they lost it, but why they wouldn't go for Mediterranean or Aegean ports they can get from the Turks, or more Chinese possessions doesn't make sense. Africa is so far away, and with the Ottoman Middle East between it on land, and the British Navy between it on sea, a Russian African colony would be a very tempting prize for an enterprising colonial power.

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

Hmmm.... Yes, Djibouti is probably the maximum extent of actual annexation, with Ethiopia being a sphere.

They can take a good deal more... they just can't hold it, even tiny little Djibouti is an appetizing prize for the British or the French, especially the former what with the British emphasis on protecting its trade route to India.

 

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

If I remember correctly, Russia was a debtor country, not a creditor.

It did not prevent the Imperial Russian Minister of Finance Witte from acting via the Russo-Chinese Bank as creditor in China.

Here are prooflinks in Russian.
Here’s an article http://www.ruskazak.ru/43/73/.
Here’s a book on topic http://militera.lib.ru/bio/lunochkin_av_ashinov/index.html
And here’s a name of a French book on topic: Jean Robert Constantin. L’Archimandrite Paisi et l’ataman Achinoff. Paris, 1891.

In English: Imperial Russia in Africa

And some topic-related AH.com threads:
AH-Russian Africa
AH-Russian Colonies
AH-Sagallo, Russia's African Colony

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

In fact a group of Cossacks founded in 1889 a settlement near modern Djibouti by an adventurer called Ashinov. They were quickly moved out from there by French.
Maybe if the expedition had been backed by Czar the settlement would have succeeded (if it could have been somehow arranged with French ). Or if the expedition had been 5-10 years earlier( before the France claimed that area).
And given Russian Djibouti, Rodina’s influence on orthodox Ethiopia( and Eritrea as part of it in late 19th century) would certainly be massive. Maybe massive enough to enforce vassalage.


Here are prooflinks in Russian.
Here’s an article http://www.ruskazak.ru/43/73/.
Here’s a book on topic http://militera.lib.ru/bio/lunochkin_av_ashinov/index.html
And here’s a name of a French book on topic: Jean Robert Constantin. L’Archimandrite Paisi et l’ataman Achinoff. Paris, 1891.

I once made a comment on how the Russian Orthodox Church can learn about its Ethiopian counterpart, and another author told me that it was a wrong sort of Orthodoxy. Ethiopian Orthodox Church is actually a Miaphysite kind of church.