Russian belarus

How can belarus after the fall of the soviet union be part of the russian federation?

Could we have a Russia allied to the west and part of NATO and the European Union?

What would be the relationship with eastern Europe, especially Poland and the Baltic countries?

How can a Russian Belarus affect the relationship with Europe and the Western world?
 
With the exception of some nationalists, Belarus had the weakest independence inclinations following the collapse of the USSR. So, keeping it affiliated with the Russian Federation should be easy. Maybe a referendum calling for a union treaty led by a Charismatic socio / political figure? Even without Russia "suggesting" an outcome, such a referendum probably had a good chance of passing either by popular desire or simply by apathy.

But... it is important to remember that the Russian Federation is different than the Federal State that was envisioned by Putin as a strategic thinker following the break up of the USSR. Putin's plan called for the Russian Federation, Belarus, Ukraine and the then 50% Slavic / Germanic Kazakhstan to enter into a "Federal State". The member states would be self governing autonomous states, retain their own national flags, their own armed forces in the form of National Guards. They would then coordinate macro defense, economic and foreign policies and also contribute towards the Federal Armed Forces.

So, as for the impact, it might be based on whether Belarus is a dyed in the wool member of the Russian Federation, or is it an autonomous part of a Federal State as envisioned by Putin? If it is autonomous, then would Russian led units of the Federal Army be stationed there? If so, would they be token, or have real strength?

There could also well be enough apathy in Belarus to leave a Federal State with Russia if there was no clear cut economic or political advantages in remaining. Though Belarus has no where near the east west cultural and social divide that Ukraine has, things could still get nasty if Belarus say, joined a Federal State, but then wanted out.
 
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Well, if Lukashenko becomes unstable and Belarus is in chaos, then Russia could step in and annex it. Keep in mind, the international community has far less respect for Belarus than for Ukraine, so Russia annexing Belarus would have less consequences than Russia annexing Crimea alone.
 
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The best way would be for there never to have been a Belorussian SSR at all. To quote an old soc.history.what-if post of mine:

In 1917 there were few peoples in the Russian Empire with so little national consciousness as the Belorussians. In the Constituent Assembly elections, the only Belorussian nationalist party--the Belorussian Socialist Hromada--got 0.3 percent of the vote in the Minsk district, compared to 63.1% for the Bolsheviks, 19.8% for the SRs and 1.7% for the Mensheviks and Bundists. (In the city of Minsk the Hromada polled only 161 votes out of 35,651 cast. All these figures are from Richard Pipes, *The Creation of the Soviet Union*.) Contrast this with Ukraine, where the Ukrainian Socialist Revolutionary and Ukrainian Social Democratic parties got the great majority of Ukrainian, especially rural Ukrainian, votes in the election. To be sure, the Ukrainian SRs and SDs did not at this point advocate outright independence (neither did the Hromada) but they were unmistakably nationalist as well as socialist parties. No such party could attract mass support in Belorussia at that time.

Despite the evident weakness of nationalism in Belorussia. the Hromada convened in Minsk in December 1917 a Belorussian National Congress which proclaimed the independence of Belorussia. (The Congress contained a great many Russian anti-Bolsheviks who were no doubt motivated not by Belorussian nationalism but by a desire to separate themselves from the Bolshevik regime.) However, this new "republic" was very short-lived; by the end of 1917 the Bolsheviks had taken over Minsk and other major cities, and by late February the Bolsheviks gave way to the Germans. The German-sponsored Belorussian National Republic (BNR) could do little but issue proclamations, the German army having the real power. In any event, in December 1918, when the Red Army reoccupied Belorussia (after the Germans evacuated their troops, and the officials of the BNR departed with them), the Bolsheviks decided to create a Belorussian Soviet Republic. This was by no means an uncontroversial decision; some members of the Bolshevik party's Northwestern Regional Committee argued that the Belorussians were not a nation, and that it was wrong to artificially foster nationalism. But they were overruled, and the Committee was ordered to change its name to the Communist Party (Bolshevik) of Belorussia. In February 1919 the Belorussian Soviet Republic gave way to the stillborn Lithuanian-Belorussian Soviet Republic--Litbel--which was soon occupied by Polish troops...Ultimately Belorussia was divided between Soviet Russia--which re-established the Belorussian Soviet Republic which was to become one of the founding republics of the USSR--and Poland.

So suppose the Soviet regime had listened to the opponents of a Belorussian Soviet Republic, decided that the Belorussians were not a nation and that Belorussian was a dialect of Russian and simply incorporated Belorussia into the RSFSR? (At the same time I am assuming that they do *not* do the same thing with Ukraine, due to the greater influence of nationalism there. It may be inconsistent to say that Ukrainian is a language and the Ukrainians a nation whereas Belorussian isn't a language and the Belorussians aren't a nation, but the Bolsheviks were capable of worse inconsistencies.)

One problem is that, as I noted, the Soviets did not control all of Belorussia: from 1921 to 1939 western Belorussia belonged to Poland. However, I doubt that the Poles could successfully make Belorussian nationalism a successful anti-Soviet propaganda weapon (despite Pilsudski's advocacy of federalism in the early post-World War I period) in view of their treatment of their own Belorussians. (Of course I'm not saying that the Poles killed Belorussians on anything remotely like the scale the Soviets would in the 1930s; but neither did they show much sympathy for the Belorussians' national aspirations, whereas the Soviets did at least pay lip service to such aspirations, and did in fact--at least in the 1920s--encourage the use of the Belorussian language.) Conversely, the Soviets could not make the appeals to Belorussian nationalism they did to the Belorussians of Poland in OTL between the world wars; but I am not sure that appeals to pro-*Russian* feelings among this group, combined with reminders of their economic grievances against the Poles, would be much less effective. In 1939 the USSR would "liberate" the western Ukrainians and the "west Russians" from the "yoke of the Polish landowners and capitalists." In 1941 "west Russia" would fall to the Germans, to be liberated a few years later. Obviously, there would be no UN seat for west Russia.

More recently, of course, the independence of Belarus (up to now I have called it Belorussia in this post, because that is what it was to most of the world until 1991) would not have been proclaimed in 1991, and the issue of its "union" with Russia would never have come about. Lukashenko, assuming he is not butterflied out of existence, would at most be an obscure local politician in western Russia... https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/cVLy054UpwM/PbSz_XukAp0J

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To this I would only add that the problem with incorporating Belarus into Russia after 1991 is this: the politicians in Belarus who were most contemptuous of Belarussian nationalism were also not altogether happy with the politics of the Russian Federation (especially under Yeltsin); and in any event, their idea of "Russia" was not limited to the Russian Federation. Besides, like most politicians they wanted to preserve their own power--even vis-à-vis a nation they considered to be of the same nationality ("Russian" in a broad sense) as their own.
 
Well, if Lukashenko becomes unstable and Belarus is in chaos, then Russia could step in and annex it. Keep in mind, the international community has far less respect for Belarus than for Ukraine, so Russia annexing Belarus would have less consequences than Russia annexing Crimea alone.
Unless the annexation did not end the chaos and it spread to Poland and the Baltics. Even with a weak level of nationalism, there would still be Belarusan resistance in the western parts of the nation to a forced annexation.
 
Simple: Have a EuropMaidan stype protest movement in Belarus topple Lukenshenko and then have the Russians intervene to "protect Belarussian democracy." Afterwards, the newly installed pro-Moscow state immediately "requests" annexation (a la Crimea), which Putin of course accepts.
 
Additionally, there have already been steps taken toward annexation into a federated state
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State
Lukenshenko has gotten very good at teasing Putin. For example, he promised a joint air defense zone if Russia provided modern SAMs. He then insisted that the actual launch crews be all Belarusan. Russians can only man the radar stations.

Likewise, promises of a Russian airbase in Belarus were reduced to allowing a permanent Russian squadron at a Belarusan airbase. This was further reduced to allowing Russian planes to temporarily operate from Belarusan bases where they must be serviced / armed by Belarusan ground crews.
 
Also, doesn't Armenia have close relations with Russia? Would Armenia like to join the Union of Russia, Ukraine, Belorussia, and Kazakhstan?
 
Also, doesn't Armenia have close relations with Russia? Would Armenia like to join the Union of Russia, Ukraine, Belorussia, and Kazakhstan?
Historically, Armenia has had very close relations with Russia.

It was the closest to Russia of the non Slavic imperial provinces and later Soviet republics. Following the break up of the USSR, friendly Russian ordinance and supply officers "forgot" a lot of military equipment in Armenia and this gave them an edge over Azerbaijan in the war that followed the break up. Despite this, Armenia was not included in Putin's recommended list of Federal State members. It might be that Armenia has a small population, little industry and no natural resources.

Recently, Armenia has allowed Russia to establish a large base on Armenian territory. It might be willing to join a Federal state, especially if Russia could deliver some concrete economic advantages for doing so.
 
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