Russian America- A different 'Bering Island'

SunDeep

Banned
So building upon a TL POD I proposed, WI Vitus Bering's ship makes it further south in the 2nd Kamchatka Expedition, with the shipwreck of the Sv. Petr taking place on Vancouver Island instead of Bering Island in 1741 (with OTL's Vancouver Island essentially becoming TTL's Bering Island, and OTL's Bering Island receiving a different name). Stranded on the island for a short while as IOTL, they manage to make their way back to Russia after rebuilding their boat from the wreckage far more quickly and with fewer losses than they did IOTL due to the aid of the Native Kwakwaka'wakw or Nuu-chah-nulth, bringing far greater rewards back with them after trading with the locals, and sparking greater Russian interest in settling the Pacific Northwest. As a result, early Russian settlement of the Americas ITTL primarily takes place in OTL's British Columbia instead of the Aleutian Islands, getting underway with considerable momentum from the 1750's onwards.

What happens next? With far greater returns, how much more does the Russian Empire invest in its American colonies ITTL? How much further can they push on into North America ITTL; how vast can the territory under the dominion of Russian America ultimately become? And expanding outwards from a considerably more hospitable region, how many more immigrants can Russian America attract ITTL than it did IOTL? By the time of the Alaska Purchase IOTL, how large can Russian America's population be? Comparable to that of OTL's Florida at this stage? California? Texas? Louisiana? Or even larger, with a population of over a million people, rivalling or exceeding that of OTL's contemporary Quebec? Can the Alaska Purchase ever happen ITTL? Will Russian America be conquered instead ITTL, or can it endure either as part of Russia or as its own independent nation to the present day? And how are things altered on the world stage, particularly in the Pacific region?
 
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Was the repaired boat capable of getting far to to sea? If he has to follow the coast he will have to get past the Hieltsuk, and the Haida, and they were not terribly friendly. OTL Mackenzie didn't want to go near them for fear of being attacked.What would be cool is if he "disappeared", with the remnants not discovered for 100 years.
 

SunDeep

Banned
Was the repaired boat capable of getting far to to sea? If he has to follow the coast he will have to get past the Hieltsuk, and the Haida, and they were not terribly friendly. OTL Mackenzie didn't want to go near them for fear of being attacked. What would be cool is if he "disappeared", with the remnants not discovered for 100 years.

Well, ITTL the repaired boat did manage to make it all the way back to Russia. If they could make it across the Bering Strait, they shouldn't find it too difficult to keep clear of the coast if they do encounter hostiles along the way. And the Heiltsuk weren't really that unfriendly, they just gained a reputation for dealing a hard bargain with the European traders later on. ITTL, you could easily see the Russian conquest of the region being vaguely similar to the Spanish conquest of Mexico, with the Heiltsuk filling in for the Mexica and the Haida instead of the Aztecs.
 
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SunDeep

Banned
So, ITTL, how much bigger and more populous can Russian America become? And how does it affect things elsewhere in the world? How much smaller and less populous will the USA and Canada be ITTL? Does Russian America eventually integrate/ get conquered by either of them, or persist to eventually become an independent nation? And what happens elsewhere in the Pacific? Do the Russians go a-conquering in the Far East earlier than they did IOTL, perhaps even taking control of the Korean peninsula before the Japanese can even get there? Do Mongolia, and Manchuria in its entirety, become part of the Russian Empire ITTL, leading to the premature fall of the Qing dynasty in China? Do the Russian Navy, instead of the US Navy, open up Japan and trigger the Meiji Restoration fifty years or more ahead of schedule ITTL? And if they do, how many more regions might be open for the Japanese themselves to colonise when they get around to forging their own empire earlier ITTL? Might they take Hawaii? East Borneo? New Guinea? New Caledonia and Fiji? Maybe even part of New Zealand, given that the Musket Wars would still be ongoing and the Treaty of Waitangi still unsigned? Or might the Japanese potentially have the opportunity to establish their own foothold on the American Pacific Coast themselves?
 
I'm interested in where this idea is going. I've seen many timelines and maps with Russian America but none with a similar idea...
 
So, ITTL, how much bigger and more populous can Russian America become? And how does it affect things elsewhere in the world? How much smaller and less populous will the USA and Canada be ITTL? Does Russian America eventually integrate/ get conquered by either of them, or persist to eventually become an independent nation? And what happens elsewhere in the Pacific? Do the Russians go a-conquering in the Far East earlier than they did IOTL, perhaps even taking control of the Korean peninsula before the Japanese can even get there? Do Mongolia, and Manchuria in its entirety, become part of the Russian Empire ITTL, leading to the premature fall of the Qing dynasty in China? Do the Russian Navy, instead of the US Navy, open up Japan and trigger the Meiji Restoration fifty years or more ahead of schedule ITTL? And if they do, how many more regions might be open for the Japanese themselves to colonise when they get around to forging their own empire earlier ITTL? Might they take Hawaii? East Borneo? New Guinea? New Caledonia and Fiji? Maybe even part of New Zealand, given that the Musket Wars would still be ongoing and the Treaty of Waitangi still unsigned? Or might the Japanese potentially have the opportunity to establish their own foothold on the American Pacific Coast themselves?

There is a way for Russia to obtain such supremacy in the Far East, and that is for the Qing to never come to power. Without the Qing, China would have a weaker dynasty that might not want to expand northwards, leaving Russia with a much bigger room to maneuver.

Realistically, Russian America (Alyeska) could only get as big as it can since it's a vast place but the main trouble with Alyeska will be to have a huge settlement there.

In one of my TLs, I actually have a Russian colony in OTL Philippines, and controlling the Philippines is a definite must if Russia could aim for supremacy in the Pacific, which will also help Russian America significantly.
 
So, ITTL, how much bigger and more populous can Russian America become?

Much larger than OTL Alaska, and much more meaningful, though not so much like, for example, Britain's Thirteen Colonies. If the Russians expand into OTL Washington, there could be some sort of "New St. Petersburg" or "New Livonia" established.

How much smaller and less populous will the USA and Canada be ITTL?

Perhaps this would be smaller only by a margin, except in Canada, ITTL whose lack of a coastline is detrimental to the west. Assuming an independent US still gains chunks of land in the west, I'd say it wouldn't be too different save for the lack of most of Washington, parts of Oregon, or (maybe?) far Northern California.

Does Russian America eventually integrate/ get conquered by either of them, or persist to eventually become an independent nation?

The British would certainly see the territory as something to seize in the inevitable Anglo-Russian conflict, perhaps it could be a new "front" in the Great Game?

Do the Russians go a-conquering in the Far East earlier than they did IOTL, perhaps even taking control of the Korean peninsula before the Japanese can even get there?Do Mongolia, and Manchuria in its entirety, become part of the Russian Empire ITTL, leading to the premature fall of the Qing dynasty in China?

Not much too different than OTL in Central Asia may occur, maybe a bigger rivalry with Britain in the next century. In the East they could definitely have more interest in their Pacific holdings.

Do the Russian Navy, instead of the US Navy, open up Japan and trigger the Meiji Restoration fifty years or more ahead of schedule ITTL?

If anything they try to establish protection in Hokkaido.

And if they do, how many more regions might be open for the Japanese themselves to colonise when they get around to forging their own empire earlier ITTL? Might they take Hawaii? East Borneo? New Guinea? New Caledonia and Fiji? Maybe even part of New Zealand, given that the Musket Wars would still be ongoing and the Treaty of Waitangi still unsigned? Or might the Japanese potentially have the opportunity to establish their own foothold on the American Pacific Coast themselves?

I don't know if anyone else agrees with me, but wouldn't Japan suffer at the hands of a more potent Russian presence in the Pacific and/or a Russian ally?
 

SunDeep

Banned
Much larger than OTL Alaska, and much more meaningful, though not so much like, for example, Britain's Thirteen Colonies. If the Russians expand into OTL Washington, there could be some sort of "New St. Petersburg" or "New Livonia" established.

Perhaps this would be smaller only by a margin, except in Canada, ITTL whose lack of a coastline is detrimental to the west. Assuming an independent US still gains chunks of land in the west, I'd say it wouldn't be too different save for the lack of most of Washington, parts of Oregon, or (maybe?) far Northern California.

The British would certainly see the territory as something to seize in the inevitable Anglo-Russian conflict, perhaps it could be a new "front" in the Great Game?

Not much too different than OTL in Central Asia may occur, maybe a bigger rivalry with Britain in the next century. In the East they could definitely have more interest in their Pacific holdings.

If anything they try to establish protection in Hokkaido.

I don't know if anyone else agrees with me, but wouldn't Japan suffer at the hands of a more potent Russian presence in the Pacific and/or a Russian ally?

Thanks for the feedback! A larger and more populous Russian America would probably be divided into more than a single state, and New Livonia'd be a good name. If a major town or city does develop in the region, incorporated at around the same time as Chicago IOTL to become the effective capital of Russian America ITTL, our 'New St. Petersburg', where would it be best placed to blossom? On the site of OTL's Vancouver or Seattle? Or somewhere further north, perhaps growing to exploit an earlier Klondike Gold Rush? And yes, you would expect to see Imperial Japan suffer at the hands of a more potent Russian presence in the Pacific, with Sakhalin, Hokkaido and perhaps even the entirety of Korea going to the Russians instead, at least initially.

But if they're opened up earlier, they have less ground to catch up on before they're in a position to project their own power, and more opportunities elsewhere, particularly in the Southern Pacific region, which is still for the most part still open to any colonial claims. There'd be even more pressure on them to develop a stronger military and navy ITTL than there was IOTL, and less expense involved in Japan industrialising to make up the lost ground on the Europeans. With a stronger Russia in America and East Asia, and an intercontinental Great Game, the Anglo-Japanese Alliance will be far more important for both the British and the Japanese, with plenty of benefits and mutual interests to increase the likelihood of an US-Japanese alliance forming ITTL as well, both of which could be consolidated far earlier ITTL.

Fifty years ahead of the curve of OTL's Japan, and considerably more advanced as a result, might Japan even be able to progress far enough to emulate its share of the World Economy IOTL's 1970's by the time we reach the 1920's ITTL? And if it does, TTL's Japan could well end up becoming recognised as one of the world's Great Powers at the same sort of time as the USA did IOTL. And if the Russians take Mongolia and Manchuria early, overthrowing the Qing dynasty and triggering TTL's Warlord Era ahead of schedule, the more advanced, even more militarist Imperial Japan of TTL will be far better placed to bring vast swathes of China under their control than the Japan of OTL, perhaps even managing to keep hold of several regions in China ITTL.

Greater adversity, at an earlier stage, can be a boon to development as well as a hindrance- especially in the case of isolationalist Japan, which was only being held back by itself, and its subsequent lack of easy opportunities and resources which could have been theirs for the taking if they'd gone after them 30>40 years earlier. Can the extra motivation, the earlier industrialisation and the easier opportunities for expansion boost Japan ITTL more than the increased strength of Russia in the Pacific will hinder it? Maybe...
 
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SunDeep

Banned
So by the time we reach the Present Day ITTL, which nations are the biggest winners in relation to their standing on the world stage IOTL, and who are the biggest losers? Could the ramifications even butterfly away WW1, the Soviet Revolution and any conflicts that took place afterwards IOTL? What could TTL's 'Great War' look like, and how much would the lineup of nations in the two military alliances be altered from OTL's WW1?
 
So by the time we reach the Present Day ITTL, which nations are the biggest winners in relation to their standing on the world stage IOTL, and who are the biggest losers? Could the ramifications even butterfly away WW1, the Soviet Revolution and any conflicts that took place afterwards IOTL? What could TTL's 'Great War' look like, and how much would the lineup of nations in the two military alliances be altered from OTL's WW1?

Impossible to say because we don't know what has happened in between. I will say this, if Russia can expand into Alaska and down the coast to say present day Washington and Russia can hold on to those gains the into the 19th century then Russia is a Pacific power and a North American power and that is very significant IMWO.
 
Well, ITTL the repaired boat did manage to make it all the way back to Russia. If they could make it across the Bering Strait, they shouldn't find it too difficult to keep clear of the coast if they do encounter hostiles along the way. And the Heiltsuk weren't really that unfriendly, they just gained a reputation for dealing a hard bargain with the European traders later on. ITTL, you could easily see the Russian conquest of the region being vaguely similar to the Spanish conquest of Mexico, with the Heiltsuk filling in for the Mexica and the Haida instead of the Aztecs.
Note that otl's Bering Island is the westernmost of the Kommandorski islands, and is quite near Kamchatka Peninsula. Vancouver Island is all the way across the Pacific. I doubt a jury-rigged boat would make it back, although stranger things have happened.
 

SunDeep

Banned
Note that otl's Bering Island is the westernmost of the Kommandorski islands, and is quite near Kamchatka Peninsula. Vancouver Island is all the way across the Pacific. I doubt a jury-rigged boat would make it back, although stranger things have happened.

ITTL, it wouldn't have to be a jury-rigged boat- there were no trees on OTL's Bering Island, so all they could do was to rebuild the boat with what they had, something which took them nine months to do and led to the deaths of 1/3rd of the original crew members, including Bering himself. On Vancouver Island, they'd have abundant timber to work with, turning the complete cannibalization of the ship and building of a new vessel that they had to carry out IOTL into a mere patch job to repair the damage, something they'd be able to do in a matter of weeks, or even days ITTL. And with resident natives to trade with/ pillage from, it'd be easy to replenish their supplies and keep virtually all of their crew members alive- maybe even having space to take a few captured natives back to Russia with them, Pocahontas-style.

I could have chosen another island as TTL's Bering Island, and considered Kodiak Island as a easier, less contentious alternative- but after they have their shipwreck, they won't be doing any more exploring, they'll be turning around and heading for home. And unless Bering made it further than Aleksei Chirikov did on the same expedition IOTL (the Alexander Archipelago, where the Russian-American company would run their operations IOTL from the town of Novo-Archangelsk/Sitka), it wouldn't really have changed anything.
 
The idea of another front of the Great Game playing out across the Rockies between the Russians and agents of the HBC is extremely interesting. You should write a full TL.

If the Russians managed to get significant numbers of settlers into what is now Southern British Columbia and Washington - there would be no Alaska purchase. They wouldn't sell at all. I think the most likely time for a breakaway would be after the revolution - when the USA and Britain could not live with the idea of a communist state in North America. The allies sent troops to fight the reds in both Siberia and NW Russia in 1918-1919 in OTL, so the idea of a White Alaska surviving under a Tsar in the 1920's could be a lot of fun.

The cold war could play across the Northern Pacific a generation earlier as Soviet agents try to destabilize Alaska and the Tsars agents do the same in Mother Russia.
 
The idea of another front of the Great Game playing out across the Rockies between the Russians and agents of the HBC is extremely interesting. You should write a full TL.

If the Russians managed to get significant numbers of settlers into what is now Southern British Columbia and Washington - there would be no Alaska purchase. They wouldn't sell at all. I think the most likely time for a breakaway would be after the revolution - when the USA and Britain could not live with the idea of a communist state in North America. The allies sent troops to fight the reds in both Siberia and NW Russia in 1918-1919 in OTL, so the idea of a White Alaska surviving under a Tsar in the 1920's could be a lot of fun.

The cold war could play across the Northern Pacific a generation earlier as Soviet agents try to destabilize Alaska and the Tsars agents do the same in Mother Russia.

But would there be a Bolshevik Revolution if there is a surviving Russian Alaska though?
 
ITTL, it wouldn't have to be a jury-rigged boat- there were no trees on OTL's Bering Island, so all they could do was to rebuild the boat with what they had, something which took them nine months to do and led to the deaths of 1/3rd of the original crew members, including Bering himself. On Vancouver Island, they'd have abundant timber to work with, turning the complete cannibalization of the ship and building of a new vessel that they had to carry out IOTL into a mere patch job to repair the damage, something they'd be able to do in a matter of weeks, or even days ITTL. And with resident natives to trade with/ pillage from, it'd be easy to replenish their supplies and keep virtually all of their crew members alive- maybe even having space to take a few captured natives back to Russia with them, Pocahontas-style.

I could have chosen another island as TTL's Bering Island, and considered Kodiak Island as a easier, less contentious alternative- but after they have their shipwreck, they won't be doing any more exploring, they'll be turning around and heading for home. And unless Bering made it further than Aleksei Chirikov did on the same expedition IOTL (the Alexander Archipelago, where the Russian-American company would run their operations IOTL from the town of Novo-Archangelsk/Sitka), it wouldn't really have changed anything.

Why does the ship have to shipwreck? Why can't it just be a successful exploration of Vancouver Island and Puget Sound?
 
Didn't the Russians have a post in Hawaii also? Imagine what a Russian Hawaii would look like... At least on Oahu anyway, I don't know if they could logistically support a huge presence there.
 

SunDeep

Banned
Why does the ship have to shipwreck? Why can't it just be a successful exploration of Vancouver Island and Puget Sound?

Because the shipwreck helped to convince people that it was a viable place to settle, in the long run (even though 1/3rd of the crew died, and the survivors brought back reports of a barren, desolate icy rock with nothing worth returning there for other than sea otter pelts). If it hadn't been for the shipwreck, they'd have discovered more islands, but they wouldn't have come back with the sea otter furs from the expedition, and the Maritime Fur trade which drove early Russian settlement of Alyeska IOTL would have taken longer to get off the ground. ITTL, in which contact with the locals would be almost certainly made either through trade or plunder, they wouldn't just bring more furs back with them, they'd bring reports of plentiful forests to entice loggers, even more productive fisheries to get more fishermen to make their residence there, arable land with a climate mild enough to grow grapes, and resources like copper and coal in abundance.

Instead of just the small associations of fur traders that decided to establish settlements there IOTL, you'd have immigrants from a varied range of industries, as well as several Russian peasants and serfs looking for farming land of their own- comparable to the first wave of Russian immigration to the USA IOTL after the establishment of the Homestead Act, but a hundred years earlier- which would give it an even larger population size than OTL's French Louisiana at the time of the Louisiana Purchase, from ethnic Russian immigrants alone. And if they integrate some of the native tribes in a manner akin to the Mexica in Mexico, as the Russian equivalent of Mestizos, the population of Russian America ITTL could well even exceed that of British Canada after the confederation of the USA.
 
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