Well, the OP is talking about from Peter The Great onwards, so I think projecting consequences into the later 19th century is a little too much of a reach. If Russia cannot defeat Sweden, then everything is going to change, even if Sweden's uber-gains are reversed. Without being able to defeat Sweden, its unlikely Poland is going to get partitioned, and Russia is going to be focused far more on the South - there it can defeat the hetmanate, and the Tatars, and challenge the Ottomans, but its going to have difficulty projecting its power without a fleet.
If we assume that events go somewhat similarly in the rest of the world (that Russia, Sweden, Poland etc don't have knock-on consequences for the Seven Years War and various other conflicts), then some analogue of the French Revolution breaking out, but with Poland still in existence, and Sweden still a power to be reckoned with is going to change the dynamics of the revolutionary wars. Maybe revolution will spread to Poland? Potentially Russia is in a far worse position to intervene - maybe no Suvaroff, and almost certainly no Anglo-Russian landing in Holland, because Russia has no fleet.
Best Regards
Grey Wolf