Impact would be huge. Petr had a huge impact in starting the modernization of Russia, turning its focus Westward, and strengthening the monarchy. Without him, Russia likely wouldn't undertake a serious effort for strong naval power in the Baltic, there may not be a Great Northern War and Sweden would retain more power in Finland and the Baltic states. Instead, Russia might have come into conflict with the Persian Safavid Empire sooner and been able to retain their gains there.
In general, without Peter, Russia's progress is slowed or delayed by a few decades and they have less power in the West, but slightly more to the south. So, in general they're likely more backward during the 1700s and there's more Polish/Swedish/Lithuanian power between them and Prussia. If that's the case, Russia may not get drawn very far into the Napoleanic Wars. Thereafter, they wouldn't be viewed so much as part of the European Family of Kings.
I think their size would eventually push their power to the West, but they'd be weaker than IOTL in the Napoleanic era and toward WWI. They might potentially be less inclined/able to act as the "Protector of the Slavs."
None of these events would happen. Let's be merciful towards out butterflies
Without his 40 odd year reign none of this happens then. Could end up with Russia developing at the same pace and with the same issues as Poland and the ottomans.
I personally think Sophia remaining in place could lay the foundation for a different kind of reform: a more liberal theology favoured by the church, a move towards a paid standing army, and a gradual easing rather than strengthening of serfdom. All she has to do is get rid of Peter and keep Golitsyn (who was the driving force behind the Polonophile reform) from embarrassing himself in the Crimean wars.
Would she do it? I don't know. But a non-reforming Russia sans Peter is frankly a strange notion. Peter initially came to power backed by conservative forces, as the conservative candidate.
Have you read my TL? There I kept Feodor III alive and killed off Peter's mom (leader of conservative party) earlier. Without 1682 Golitsyn/Golitzine in Wiki translit used for TL/ stays "just" a Chancellor and does not try commanding the army himself (which sucked). Though a lot is taken straight from A.Bogdanov book, what is sorta a cliche on fai.org.ru is a new thing on AH.com.
Western technology adoption started under Alexis I. It was NECESSARY - any sane Tsar will build plants on the Urals etc. Just not abuse micromanagement the way Peter did - some of the stuff was just pants-on-the-head stupid and led to very-very unflexible structure.You still can see clashes with both Sweden and Poland-Lithuania, Russia under Ivan the Terrible still tried to invade Livonia for control over the Baltic, and Lithuania and Russia had been long time enemies, with Poland joining the mix. You also had the nastiness of the Time of Troubles and Polish Lithuanian as well Swedish intervention as more recent examples of conflict.
Polonophile Russia, given the above I would find it to be odd? Then again, I never saw Russia needing to adopt western customs, but western technology.
Polonophile Russia, given the above I would find it to be odd? Then again, I never saw Russia needing to adopt western customs, but western technology.