Russia Wins the Russo-Japanese War and then Invades Japan

What if after the Russo-Japanese War on a Russian victory, Russia invaded Japan in order to destroy the second-rate Asian power so that it isn't a threat again?
 

Cueg

Banned
They can't invade the main islands. The logistics needed for such an undertaking didn't exist in the far east. ASB
 
They can't invade the main islands. The logistics needed for such an undertaking didn't exist in the far east. ASB
They'll invade from newly-won Korea and Sakhalin. With the Japanese navy at the bottom of the ocean, the Home Islands are helpless.
 

They'll invade from newly-won Korea and Sakhalin. With the Japanese navy at the bottom of the ocean, the Home Islands are helpless.

Even if they could get to the home islands (no easy feat), Russia would be extremely hard pressed to resupply them. But it's a moot point, Japan would have sought terms long before any invasion seemed possible.
 

Cueg

Banned
Again, the logistical capacity didn't even exist. Recall that the Japanese islands are densely populated, meaning that any attempted invasion must be large enough to subdue the aforementioned population. Even the USA, at the unimaginable heights it reached towards the end of the second world war, a time that was much more technogically advanced, understood how difficult an endeavor it was. It is literally impossibe in the early 20th century for Russia to achieve what you are proposing. Everything could go right and it would still be physically impossible
 

nbcman

Donor

They'll invade from newly-won Korea and Sakhalin. With the Japanese navy at the bottom of the ocean, the Home Islands are helpless.

If the Russians threatened to do so, I could see the British either applying serious pressure (via financial markets) or becoming actively involved. But the Russians were not that foolhardy to try to invade Japan over a regional war of dominance over Manchuria / Korea.
 

They'll invade from newly-won Korea and Sakhalin. With the Japanese navy at the bottom of the ocean, the Home Islands are helpless.
There is no naval port big enough in Korea or Sakhalin island other than the beaches to handle the transports and moving supplies and logistical stuff..

In fact, the Trans-Siberian Railway is probably only two tracks.... right??

They will have to ship another Russian Invasion Fleet or build one and then ship it across the same path and by that time...

Maybe Great Britain will get annoy or Japan can purchase some more warships from Britain or France or maybe even America...

Hey... Maybe T. Roosevelt can send the Great White Fleet on a Tour around the Islands of Japan and 'protect' a new Ally in Asia..... :p
 

They'll invade from newly-won Korea and Sakhalin. With the Japanese navy at the bottom of the ocean, the Home Islands are helpless.

They don't have the logistical ability to invade. They'd have to ship the invasion force from european waters, and we all know how well that went the last time.
 
Well first Russia would have to actually win, and do it in a way that Japan has lost most of it's army and navy.

Which is a helluva problem to start with.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Again, the logistical capacity didn't even exist. Recall that the Japanese islands are densely populated, meaning that any attempted invasion must be large enough to subdue the aforementioned population. Even the USA, at the unimaginable heights it reached towards the end of the second world war, a time that was much more technogically advanced, understood how difficult an endeavor it was. It is literally impossibe in the early 20th century for Russia to achieve what you are proposing. Everything could go right and it would still be physically impossible

Japan would also have no where near the defensive capabilities that they had in WWII. A landing on one of the more rural areas with a policy of burning and destruction like Sherman marching through the South would be quite possible- one aimed at occupation of the Japanese islands would not
 
What if after the Russo-Japanese War on a Russian victory, Russia invaded Japan in order to destroy the second-rate Asian power so that it isn't a threat again?

Uh...how? The Russian presence in the far east was on shaky legs at best, getting them to even beat the Japanese (a draw might be possible) is already a tall order, getting them to invade and occupy Japan is beyond Sealion levels of implausible.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
With what, the "Third" Russian Pacific Fleet?

What if after the Russo-Japanese War on a Russian victory, Russia invaded Japan in order to destroy the second-rate Asian power so that it isn't a threat again?

With what, the "Third" Russian Pacific Fleet?

What's Russian for Sealion?;)

Best,
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Well first Russia would have to actually win, and do it in a way that Japan has lost most of it's army and navy.

Which is a helluva problem to start with.

Not really- a few minor tweaks to naval policy would easily do the trick.

Some examples- purchasing telescopic lenses and range finders coupled with increased gunnery practice could easily triple the number of hits the Russians achieve on Japanese vessels

Earlier starts or faster construction of the fleet and concentrating it before the war would be a great help. The Borodino class was scheduled for completion by December 1903. And in the Osliaba, the Navarin and the Sovetsky Soyuz would give a force of 15 reasonably modern ships versus the 6 Japanese Battleships

Purchasing the 2 Argentine Armored cruisers instead of allowing Japan to get them would have dramatically changed the balance of power in that class. If the Russians are quick and sly, they might even be able to buy the Constitution and Libertad from Chile. That would totally change the cruiser balance

Even in the fighting, a few minor incidents could change the fortunes of war dramatically. If Makarov's ship misses the mine, it would add a battleship and a dramatic leader. The Kasuga and the Asahai both hit mines and barely limp home- the loss of both would be a crushing blow to Japanese fortunes

This list isn't exhaustive by any means. Its actually not that hard to get a crushing Russian victory at sea which assures a victory at land
 

TFSmith121

Banned
That's more than "a few" ... and the reality is that

Not really- a few minor tweaks to naval policy would easily do the trick. Some examples- purchasing telescopic lenses and range finders coupled with increased gunnery practice could easily triple the number of hits the Russians achieve on Japanese vessels. Earlier starts or faster construction of the fleet and concentrating it before the war would be a great help. The Borodino class was scheduled for completion by December 1903. And in the Osliaba, the Navarin and the Sovetsky Soyuz would give a force of 15 reasonably modern ships versus the 6 Japanese Battleships. Purchasing the 2 Argentine Armored cruisers instead of allowing Japan to get them would have dramatically changed the balance of power in that class. If the Russians are quick and sly, they might even be able to buy the Constitution and Libertad from Chile. That would totally change the cruiser balance. Even in the fighting, a few minor incidents could change the fortunes of war dramatically. If Makarov's ship misses the mine, it would add a battleship and a dramatic leader. The Kasuga and the Asahai both hit mines and barely limp home- the loss of both would be a crushing blow to Japanese fortunes. This list isn't exhaustive by any means. Its actually not that hard to get a crushing Russian victory at sea which assures a victory at land.

That's more than "a few" ... and the reality is that if it wasn't "that hard" than the Russians would have done better than they did; losing two fleets in a row didn't just happen.

The other issue, of course, is the Japanese have the initiative; if they do NOT start the war, the Russians do NOT get to somehow overturn the (historical) odds... and the issue is the Russian Navy was always second to the army; having the Germans and the Austrians to the west, and the Turks to the south, meant the Russians had to spend most of what they had on the army - the Russian navy was (and remains) something of a luxury. By definition, Russia is a continental power; Japan is a maritime power.

Basically, if the Russians have spent enough resources to turn their fleets into something worth the name, the Japanese are unlikely to attack - unless, of course, they can get their friends the British to join in...

Best,
 
  1. Where do they get the ships to do so?
  2. How are they supposed to stockpile that much supplies that far east and get them in Japan without them sinking or burnt by Japanese raiding parties?
  3. How do they keep the Royal Navy from simply blocking their way and telling them to fuck off?

In short, a much earlier POD is required to prevent Japan from modernizing enough to pose a threat, which would very likely retcon the war as a whole anyway and hand Russia a blank cheque to do what they please in Manchuria and Korea.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
That's more than "a few" ... and the reality is that if it wasn't "that hard" than the Russians would have done better than they did; losing two fleets in a row didn't just happen.

The other issue, of course, is the Japanese have the initiative; if they do NOT start the war, the Russians do NOT get to somehow overturn the (historical) odds... and the issue is the Russian Navy was always second to the army; having the Germans and the Austrians to the west, and the Turks to the south, meant the Russians had to spend most of what they had on the army - the Russian navy was (and remains) something of a luxury. By definition, Russia is a continental power; Japan is a maritime power.

Basically, if the Russians have spent enough resources to turn their fleets into something worth the name, the Japanese are unlikely to attack - unless, of course, they can get their friends the British to join in...

Best,


I didn't say that all those had to be done. Actually each on its own is easily enough to turn the war. Do four or five of them and a Russian victory is almost assured

Russian Naval Spending actually far exceeds Japan's at the time- the Russians are faced with the problem of maintaining three fleets while Japan has the luxury of only one

Japan is also pursuing a desperate go for broke strategy. Most of the Japanese Fleet being paid for out of the Chinese indemnity. Its a one time funding source that is exhausted so long term Japan's prospects are dim both at sea (completion of the Borodinoes) and on land (completion of the Trans-Siberian). There is about a three year gap (between January 1902 and the signing of the alliance with Britain) and 1905 (completion of the Borodino class and the railway) when Japan has any hope of winning

The situation in Europe is very bright for the Russians in 1900-04- France effectively neutralizes Germany, Austria is incapable of any unilateral action, Turkey is friendly and Italy is drawing near France.

Heavy land spending isn't needed (in 1898 Nicholas slashes 400 million rubles from the army's budget over five years- he seems almost totally unconcerned about the situation in Europe)
 

Cueg

Banned
Japan would also have no where near the defensive capabilities that they had in WWII. A landing on one of the more rural areas with a policy of burning and destruction like Sherman marching through the South would be quite possible- one aimed at occupation of the Japanese islands would not

I never suggested otherwise. However, the OP explicitly asked for the destruction of Japan so as to prevent its rise in the future. Doing so entails an occupation, an occupation that would, as you yourself omitted, be impossible. Furthermore, these "raids" would undoubtedly cost the Russians more then the Japanese.

To do to Japan what Sherman did to the ante-bellum south is also impossible. Sherman was up against a relatively minuscule number of confederates, which allowed him to frequently divide his army in order to acquire supplies. Against the Japanese however, the Russians would not be able to employ this strategy. This isn't a repeat of the Opium wars, with a pre-industrial army getting slaughtered by a comparatively small industrial one. Rather, this is two modernized, industrial nations going up against one another. This era was defined and won by the number of men on the field. The Japanese, fighting on the home islands themselves, would be able to deploy as many men as they had guns. Thus, the Russians would be unable to break through and replicate Sherman's success at total war because they would be unable to periodically divide whatever army they manage to get onto the islands with a large Japanese presence looming over them.

To elaborate further, they cannot land chucks of the invasion force throughout numerous sections of the islands. They would simply get annihilated, one by one, by a larger combined Japanese force. So, that means they have to perform one massive landing and establish a beach-head. Knowing that they lacked the logistical capacity for such an undertaking, this scenario that you purpose is already rendered impossible. However, lets wave a magic wand and assume they get the bulk of the Russian army in the Far East onto one of the four islands. From there, they would then have to break out of the beachhead, which would entail defeating whatever combined army the Japanese manage to muster. After said army is defeated, only then can they pursue a strategy akin to Sherman's.
 
Top