Russia Wins Russo-Japanese War - Effects on future wars?

Japan's latest "victory" on land, Mukden, had cost Japan more dead and wounded than Russia and was "won" when the Russians withdrew largely intact to new defenses a few days march north.

The Japanese "won" a "victory" at Mukden? I'm not sure why you feel the quotes are needed...

The Russians had 330,000 men and 800 artillery pieces laid out in a purely defensive arrangement. The Japanese had only 270,000 men and 500 cannon, and they still won. To be sure, some of this was Russian ineptitude instead of Japanese brilliance. Kuropatin expected the attack to come on the mountainous right (Western) flank. It came on the left, and Kuropatin's shifting of troops to that side was executed badly enough to leave much of that flank in chaos. It's also true that the victory was not what the Japanese leadership so badly wanted. Oyama wanted to encircle and destroy the Russians, and they never did that. In fact, when the stretched supply lines couldn't keep up, they had difficulty pursuing the rapidly-retreating Russians. Finally, as you correctly noted, the Japanese forced suffered higher total deaths than did the Russians, with their already smaller forces. But despite all this, it was very much a Japanese victory.

The Japanese never did manage to encircle the Russian forces, but they did manage to totally encircle the western flank, and seperate it from the rest of Russians. The men in that third of the front began to retreat, but Japanese forces under General Nozu managed to get into their rear. The Russian retreat became a disorganized rout. Russian wounded and weapons were left behind in the confusion. The Japanese captured 58 cannons and 22,000 prisoners. It was hardly the orderly retreat to prepared positions you laid out in your post. It's true that the Russians retreated 10 day's march to another Russian stronghold at t Hspingkai, but they didn't stay there and prepare a new defense. Under Kuropatkin's orders, they keep going towards the Russian-Chinese border.

It's absolutely true that it wasn't the decisive victory that the Japanese wanted. The Russian forces were largely intact, if, like the Japanese, too exhausted to fight. But a smaller Japanese force took on a larger Russian force, with more cannon, that was set up in a purely defensive manner. The outcome was that the Russians were forced to retreat from fear of encirclement. The Russians chose to retreat not back to prepared lines, but out of Manchuria and towards Russia. And if the Japanese were too exhausted from the fight for another battle, well, so were the Russians.

It was a Japanese victory. No quotation marks are needed.
 

katchen

Banned
There is one way for the Russians to win the Battle of Tsushima Straits. And that is by not passing through the Tsushima Straits but by coming around Japan to the East and reaching Vladivostok via one of the Kuril Island Straits and the Soya Strait with Sakhalin before What was the Russian battle plan after the Black Sea Fleet reached Vladivostok safely, anyway?
Assuming that the Russians do win the war with Japan, the effects on Russia may be interesting to say the least. Let's not forget that the war was about Korea. And if the other European Powers and the US permitted Japan to take over Korea they would likely have no objection if Russia takes over Korea. Especially if Russia gives up trying to take over Manchuria in return for getting warm water Pacific ports in Korea.
If Russia annexes Korea, the settlement of the Russian Far East and probably the rest of Siberia just got a shot in the arm. Unlike Russians, Koreans know very well how to cultivate land in the Amur and Ussuri Basins and will be quick to expand into those areas. Perhaps the Lena and upper Yensei valleys too, as soon as the infrastructure will permit them to.
And even in the 15 years up to 1920, expect Koreans to respond well to Eastern Orthodox missionaries as they do to Catholic and Protestant missionaries IOTL. On the other hand, not all Koreans will become Christians, so expect Buddhism to become a bigger part of the Russian religious scene if Korea is part of the Russian EmpirEmpire. Look for Tibetan Vajrayana Buddhism to spread amongst Korean Buddhists too. And yes, there will be Koreatowns in every Russian city.
That railroad that Union Pacific wanted to build across British Columbia and Alaska into Russia and got money from investors to start building was supposedly stopped as a secret compromise with Japan. It might go ahead ITTL. Though the Panic of 1907 is coming and could pose problems for it.
And as for Japan, Japan will now appear less threatening and more of a junior partner to Great Britain. The United States will see Japan as less threatening too. The UK will now have an interest in building Japan up as a counterweight to Russia. Humiliating for Japan but not necessarily a bad place to be under the circumstances.
In fact Great Britain might well offer to sell Japan some Pacific Islands like the Solomons that are a drain on Britain's Colonial Office and a pain in Britain's butt because of the illegal trafficking in slave labor to Queensland that is going on from them. The Solomons, as it turns out, are rich in mineral resources including lead, zinc, nickel and gold. And the Gilbert and Ellice Islands (now Kiribati and Tuvalu OTTL) and maybe even some or all of the New Hebrides, which turn out to have copper as well as gold deposits. And the Solomon Islands and New Hebrides at least have potential for Japanese agricultural settlement, easing population pressures somewhat and maybe even opening up the possibility of (wink wink nod nod) Japanese guest workers for Australian sugar and banana plantattions.
And Japn is not completely closed out of a sphere of influence in China either. Japan can still pursue a sphere of influence in Fujian Province, adjoining Japanese owned Taiwan, and if railroads are built that far, Zhiangzhii and perhaps Hunan Provinces. And Wenzhou in Southern Zhaezhiang Province. All this while keeping a lower profile.
 

Flubber

Banned
The Japanese "won" a "victory" at Mukden? I'm not sure why you feel the quotes are needed...


I wanted to highlight the pyrrhic nature of Japan's victories in the war's land campaign. Japan won those battles but did so at a much higher relative cost than they inflicted on the Russians.
 

elkarlo

Banned
at the same time Japan goes broke Petrograd burns in revolutionary flames. The Russian could keep fighting a while longer but soon they will have massive uprisings. I think they need a decisive battle in Manchuria or Korea. Succeeding to route the army in Manchuria and then encircle the siege of port Arthur for example.

I think not having a revolution was part of my WI.

Yeah a major defeat would put any reasonable chance for japan off the table
 
The Japanese "won" a "victory" at Mukden? I'm not sure why you feel the quotes are needed...

The Russians had 330,000 men and 800 artillery pieces laid out in a purely defensive arrangement. The Japanese had only 270,000 men and 500 cannon, and they still won. To be sure, some of this was Russian ineptitude instead of Japanese brilliance. Kuropatin expected the attack to come on the mountainous right (Western) flank. It came on the left, and Kuropatin's shifting of troops to that side was executed badly enough to leave much of that flank in chaos. It's also true that the victory was not what the Japanese leadership so badly wanted. Oyama wanted to encircle and destroy the Russians, and they never did that. In fact, when the stretched supply lines couldn't keep up, they had difficulty pursuing the rapidly-retreating Russians. Finally, as you correctly noted, the Japanese forced suffered higher total deaths than did the Russians, with their already smaller forces. But despite all this, it was very much a Japanese victory.

The Japanese never did manage to encircle the Russian forces, but they did manage to totally encircle the western flank, and seperate it from the rest of Russians. The men in that third of the front began to retreat, but Japanese forces under General Nozu managed to get into their rear. The Russian retreat became a disorganized rout. Russian wounded and weapons were left behind in the confusion. The Japanese captured 58 cannons and 22,000 prisoners. It was hardly the orderly retreat to prepared positions you laid out in your post. It's true that the Russians retreated 10 day's march to another Russian stronghold at t Hspingkai, but they didn't stay there and prepare a new defense. Under Kuropatkin's orders, they keep going towards the Russian-Chinese border.

It's absolutely true that it wasn't the decisive victory that the Japanese wanted. The Russian forces were largely intact, if, like the Japanese, too exhausted to fight. But a smaller Japanese force took on a larger Russian force, with more cannon, that was set up in a purely defensive manner. The outcome was that the Russians were forced to retreat from fear of encirclement. The Russians chose to retreat not back to prepared lines, but out of Manchuria and towards Russia. And if the Japanese were too exhausted from the fight for another battle, well, so were the Russians.

It was a Japanese victory. No quotation marks are needed.

Kouropatkin great humanist was suffered when the soldiers were killed, and ordered the troops withdraw. For general psychology amazing. Of course I am not saying that the General should be Zhukov, there is important middle ground.
 
If WW1 happens like IOTL Japan might join the Central Powers to reclaim lost Russian territory.

Nah.

Japan's participation in the war was universally beneficial for them IOTL, the Germans were weak in the Far East and the prize of Tsingtao was an extremely low-hanging fruit. IMHO, it's nearly impossible for Japan not to join in on a WWI scenario resembling OTL's for that.
 
So why isn't anybody running the scenario of Russia winning in 1905 and seeing where it goes?

I think it's because how they win is absolutely crucial to any following scenario. For example, Russia will behave very differently after the war if they win by attrition than if they win a quick victory. That's my take on it anyway.
 
Not to mention that several factors have to be taken into account of how Russia will remotely win on land and at sea. In fact, any earlier PoD may even butterfly the Russo-Japanese conflict.

One other thing: could the Russians have appealed to the Koreans who are weary of Japanese intentions to fight alongside them? Korea could also help the Russians win against Japan though, since Myeongseong advocated a closer relationship between Joseon Korea and Russia. That was before Russia's defeat IOTL. Perhaps ITTL you may need to have the Korean Queen survive the Japanese assassination attempt.
 
So why isn't anybody running the scenario of Russia winning in 1905 and seeing where it goes?

Russian victory was possible because the Japanese always teetered on the edge, while at the Russian had huge reserves. Admiral Rozhdestvensky offered the king to stop the advance of his squadron and do not go to Vladivostok, and based on the French colonies and threaten Japan. In this case, without losing the fleet, Russia could continue the war and raising an army against the Japanese twice to knock them from the mainland.
But in my opinion, such a victory would be a Pyrrhic victory for Russia. Without Russia's defeat would not have to carry out urgent reforms, both social and in the army and navy. Would not it be grand industrial boom, before the First World War, the Russian army and navy would not have received the necessary training that would result in a disaster of the first encounters with the Germans.
 
Possible...

I can't speak to the consequences, since that depends so much on how the war ends. However, it's not oout of the question for Russia to win the first round of naval battles--or at least, end with near mutual anhiliation. Better or worse luck with mines could change the balance of power--and Japan has no second batch of warships; Russia does. The Baltic Fleet was not batle-worthy when it got to Tsushima--but if both Pacific fleets had been wrecked, then it could have steamed to Vladivostok, refit, and controllled the seas.

That threat, if both fleets were gone, likely would have got Japan to talking...
 
A Russia that wins the war of 1905 legitimately and not through pure luck is probably better prepared to face the future anyway. These aren't unrelated concepts.
 
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