Russia under siege 1992

Monk78

WI right after the dissolution of the USSR the traditional enemies of the russian empire start scrambling for power and influence in the newly liberated ex soviet republics

Turkey signing defence deals with azerbaijan , on the condition of totally blocking all russian interests
Iran trying to woo armenia into its camp and making aggressive claims into caspian oil fields
Pakistan , Egypt and Saudi Arabia aggressively spreading a puratinical sunni islam and funding arming islamists groups in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan Kazakhstan and Tajikistan
Japan pushing russia hard on the Kurils issue

All these countries realize this is a once in a century chance of a major weakness in russia and are trying to maximize their areas on influence , soviet military is in disarry , nuclear weapons cannot be used as a threat as there is no direct conventional war

How will Russia react to this ?
 

Deleted member 116192

Monk78 said:
WI right after the dissolution of the USSR the traditional enemies of the russian empire start scrambling for power and influence in the newly liberated ex soviet republics

Turkey signing defence deals with azerbaijan , on the condition of totally blocking all russian interests
Iran trying to woo armenia into its camp and making aggressive claims into caspian oil fields
Pakistan , Egypt and Saudi Arabia aggressively spreading a puratinical sunni islam and funding arming islamists groups in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan Kazakhstan and Tajikistan
Japan pushing russia hard on the Kurils issue

All these countries realize this is a once in a century chance of a major weakness in russia and are trying to maximize their areas on influence , soviet military is in disarry , nuclear weapons cannot be used as a threat as there is no direct conventional war

How will Russia react to this ?
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Not possible, most of the elites in these country are still left over from the USSR, they'd have some problem with Russia but I don't think they were at that point in time anti Russian.
Even if it did happen Russia has sufficient screws to tighten and loose depending upon it's requirements
 

Monk78

Freedom2018 said:
Not possible, most of the elites in these country are still left over from the USSR, they'd have some problem with Russia but I don't think they were at that point in time anti Russian.
Even if it did happen Russia has sufficient screws to tighten and loose depending upon it's requirements
Click to expand...
PLease elaborate what options do russia have ? the armed forces are under control of local presidents
 
Osman Aga

Osman Aga

Banned
Monk78 said:
WI right after the dissolution of the USSR the traditional enemies of the russian empire start scrambling for power and influence in the newly liberated ex soviet republics

Turkey signing defence deals with azerbaijan , on the condition of totally blocking all russian interests
Iran trying to woo armenia into its camp and making aggressive claims into caspian oil fields
Pakistan , Egypt and Saudi Arabia aggressively spreading a puratinical sunni islam and funding arming islamists groups in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan Kazakhstan and Tajikistan
Japan pushing russia hard on the Kurils issue

All these countries realize this is a once in a century chance of a major weakness in russia and are trying to maximize their areas on influence , soviet military is in disarry , nuclear weapons cannot be used as a threat as there is no direct conventional war

How will Russia react to this ?
Click to expand...

1. Turkey tried this in 1992-1993 but Demirel chickened out when Yeltsin signed a defensive pact with Armenia. If Russia is in really big trouble there is little that stops Turkey from intervening in favor of Azerbaijan, probably reversing the situation where Azerbaijan occupies Zangezur to "return the ethnic Azerbaijani refugees from there and protect them".

2. Iran could try it, Elcibey was hinting to unite Iranian Azerbaijan in the future with the Republic of Azerbaijan. Not something Tehran can tolerate. But whether Iran can do much about a Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance in 1992-1993... I doubt that. Especially with Azerbaijan occupying Zangezur, cutting the border with Iran.

3. Could be, though the ex-communist leaders in those countries will suppress any kind of those movements. It would be interesting if Ahmad Shah Massoud will retreat to Tajikistan and the Taliban moving the war there. Egypt however will not spread "puratinical Sunni Islam" because Mobarak is not such a man to do so. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia do look like such countries. Turkey however will enter the scene in the absence of any Russia that is in good enough state.

4. If Russia ends up in Civil War in 1993 then there is a possibility Japan occupies those Islands again in an opportunistic move though I don't think the Japanese Military post-WW2 would be doing so. Only with US consent probably.

Some nations will only act if Russia is in a weaker situation, close to Civil War. If Russia is like OTL they won't move that would trigger Russian response.
 

jhenderson 20

Osman Aga said:
4. If Russia ends up in Civil War in 1993 then there is a possibility Japan occupies those Islands again in an opportunistic move though I don't think the Japanese Military post-WW2 would be doing so. Only with US consent probably.
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Japan will not touch the Kurile Islands. Those islands are full of Russians with no ethnic Japanese to liberate. Japan is pacifist now and even more so in 1992/93. The military capability isn't there either... and no one in Washington will give that a green light.
 

Veiovis

Osman Aga said:
Some nations will only act if Russia is in a weaker situation, close to Civil War. If Russia is like OTL they won't move that would trigger Russian response.
Click to expand...

The more unstable russia gets, the less other nations would try to enchroach on it. Getting a very distracted, but in control, russian government to accept a fait accompli in some unimportant border region is one thing (though still very much both unwise, and more born out of map-painting computer players fantasies then actual policy), but sticking your dick in a messy, nuclear civil war situation is just lunacy.
 

jsb

Monk78 said:
Turkey .....
Iran .....
Pakistan , Egypt and Saudi Arabia .......
Japan.....

All these countries realize this is a once in a century chance of a major weakness in russia and are trying to maximize their areas on influence , soviet military is in disarry , nuclear weapons cannot be used as a threat as there is no direct conventional war
Click to expand...
No matter how weak the Russians have fallen by 92 none of the above can win against them unless they have US support and the US will make it clear they are not willing to support them.....

It would also start issues with other nations, ie Japan pushing for anything will make S/N Korea and PRC/ROC all worried so it not worth it, as will Turkey doing anything will make trouble with Europe.
 

Byzantion

Monk78 said:
WI right after the dissolution of the USSR the traditional enemies of the russian empire start scrambling for power and influence in the newly liberated ex soviet republics

Turkey signing defence deals with azerbaijan , on the condition of totally blocking all russian interests
Iran trying to woo armenia into its camp and making aggressive claims into caspian oil fields
Pakistan , Egypt and Saudi Arabia aggressively spreading a puratinical sunni islam and funding arming islamists groups in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan Kazakhstan and Tajikistan
Japan pushing russia hard on the Kurils issue

All these countries realize this is a once in a century chance of a major weakness in russia and are trying to maximize their areas on influence , soviet military is in disarry , nuclear weapons cannot be used as a threat as there is no direct conventional war

How will Russia react to this ?
Click to expand...
What about a new Amur issue ?
 

mial42

Gone Fishin'
Doing your best to destabilize or carve territory off of an already unstable state with acute conventional weakness but tens of thousands of nuclear weapons is a very bad idea.
 

Monk78

mial42 said:
Doing your best to destabilize or carve territory off of an already unstable state with acute conventional weakness but tens of thousands of nuclear weapons is a very bad idea.
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Russia is not going to use nukes unless some major population center is in immediate danger, otherwise they incur the wrath of NATO

Its like UK nuking Argentina because Falklands were invaded
 

mial42

Gone Fishin'
Monk78 said:
Russia is not going to use nukes unless some major population center is in immediate danger, otherwise they incur the wrath of NATO

Its like UK nuking Argentina because Falklands were invaded
Click to expand...
If there are multiple countries outright invading Russia (Iran and Japan) and Russia can't respond conventionally, Russia will use nukes. Even if they don't, if these countries succeed in destabilizing Russia, then there won't be a central authority controlling the nukes.
 

Monk78

jhenderson 20 said:
Japan will not touch the Kurile Islands. Those islands are full of Russians with no ethnic Japanese to liberate. Japan is pacifist now and even more so in 1992/93. The military capability isn't there either... and no one in Washington will give that a green light.
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Japan does have the capability even against USSR[by late 80s] let alone Russia in disarray

but i agree no one in NATO will back this

and you are right this is not "liberation" at all infact occupation of russians
 
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Monk78

mial42 said:
If there are multiple countries outright invading Russia (Iran and Japan) and Russia can't respond conventionally, Russia will use nukes. Even if they don't, if these countries succeed in destabilizing Russia, then there won't be a central authority controlling the nukes.
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They cannot destabilize russia , but are just gnawing away at the peripheries

yes a rogue local commander can possibly use nukes but that is again much less likely than a conventional military response directed from Moscow
 
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Monk78

Osman Aga said:
Egypt however will not spread "puratinical Sunni Islam" because Mobarak is not such a man to do so.
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he is clearly not but probably more than happy to send their fanatics , armed with chinese copy weapons funded by saudis to die fighting "infidels" in a foreign land.They did supply the mujahideen in OTL
Will they do so without US approval is less clear
 
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