Russia topples Qing in the 1790s/1800s

[oca2073]

Let's say in 1793, Catherine the Great is convinced by her lover to make an attempt to conquer China. Russia mobilizes 40,000-50,000 men and storms Outer Manchuria. Qing totally underestimates the Russians and only send a small army and it is wiped out. By then Qing's military was in severe decline due to the Banner system becoming decadent, widespread corruption, and loss of military morale. Not to mention Heshen was strangling the state with his mass endemic corruption and the state had become inefficient, unresponsive and in the hands of incompetents.

Qing send two large armies of "elite banner troops" to Manchuria, both of which are defeated. Rebellions then break out all over China due to Qing losing their aura of military superiority. Large parts of the country slip out of their control. Due to the turmoil and political risks, Qianlong doesn't abdicate in 1796. When he dies in 1799, Heshen launches a coup and takes out the heir Jiaqing, promoting a favourite to rule as puppet emperor.

Meanwhile Russians begin to colonize Manchuria (which is largely empty before large scale Han immigration), attracting local recruits into their army due to their superior military weapons and the promise of victory and spoils. Russians begin manufacturing cannon and muskets in Manchuria. In 1802, they march on Beijing. The Great Wall fortifications by this time are a joke both due to corruption and China not expecting a northern threat since the Manchus themselves invaded. The Russians capture Beijing and loot it. Heshen and the Qing emperor flee to Nanjing. China is now split between warlords, the Russians, and the southern Qing dynasty.

Working with Confucian officials, the Russians declare a new dynasty and place a Romanov on the throne. They build a Han army equipped with European weapons and manage to defeat the other dynastic contenders and win over the local Han populations whereas before Russian troops were too prone to looting and atrocities. Once they take Nanjing, they execute Heshen and all his lackies thus earning the respect of the Confucian officials. They do not attempt to impose their Orthodox religion and decide to rule China largely on Confucian lines and customs under a new Mandate of Heaven, though introducing new European technology, science, education, ect. Manchuria is annexed by Russia, while Qing territories in Central Asia, Mongolia, Tibet go independent as vassal states of both China and Russia.

Is this realistic? Militarily feasible? Can 50,000 Russians defeat 200,000 Qing army in the 1790s?

 

[Hvalrossen]

Is this realistic? Militarily feasible? Can 50,000 Russians defeat 200,000 Qing army in the 1790s?

I think it is possible, but also unlikely. In any case, even if the Russians succeed they may lose most of their gains in the medium to long-term.

If Russia managed to conquer China, there will likely be large numbers of translations of Chinese texts. How would these impact Russia, and the wider world?

The rulers of Russian China may also get very powerfull, which may lead to them ignoring central authority or out right declaring independance. The relative isolation of China from Russia does lend itself to such a scenario. The Russians of China may over time sinicize or else just wish for more autonomy from the 'mainland'.

The Russian controll over China will also be weak untill Russia dominates Central Asia, due to transport routes. Siberia is sparsely populated and difficult to traverse. Central Asia on the otherhand lends itself more towards easy movement.[/QUOTE]

 

[oca2073]

I think it is possible, but also unlikely. In any case, even if the Russians succeed they may lose most of their gains in the medium to long-term.

If Russia managed to conquer China, there will likely be large numbers of translations of Chinese texts. How would these impact Russia, and the wider world?

The rulers of Russian China may also get very powerfull, which may lead to them ignoring central authority or out right declaring independance. The relative isolation of China from Russia does lend itself to such a scenario. The Russians of China may over time sinicize or else just wish for more autonomy from the 'mainland'.

The Russian controll over China will also be weak untill Russia dominates Central Asia, due to transport routes. Siberia is sparsely populated and difficult to traverse. Central Asia on the otherhand lends itself more towards easy movement.

I don't think Russia would aim to "control" China in this scenario but merely to place a member of their dynasty on the throne of China and then the two countries cooperating as much as possible. It will be two sovereign nations, both ruled by Romanovs working closely together, a relationship between equals in the long run.

 

[Hvalrossen]

I don't think Russia would aim to "control" China in this scenario but merely to place a member of their dynasty on the throne of China and then the two countries cooperating as much as possible. It will be two sovereign nations, both ruled by Romanovs working closely together, a relationship between equals in the long run.

Could a Romanov monarch of China gain popular support? Is it possible for the Romanov monorch of China to become secure in his position, and independant from outside help inorder to hold his/her position.

Would there be Russians moving into China for jobs in the Chinese Romanov regime?

 

[SenatorChickpea]

Completely implausible. The Russians winning a war against the Qing in the far west of China? Sure.
Even conquering Mongolia? Possible, though it would probably be a puppet state at this point rather than directly annexed.
But actually conquering China would be beyond Russia in 1900, let alone 1800. The Qing might very well fall- but provincial elites would raise their own armies rather than submit. In 1800, those armies would be very close to the Russians in technology.
The idea that the Russians would rule as Confucians is fantasy. The Romanovs are closely tied to the fortunes of the Orthodox Church and vice versa; they would alienate both their own base and fail to convince the Chinese they had any understanding of Confucianism.
The war itself will require huge amounts of resources that simply cannot be supplied from European Russia in this period, given that the Tsars were still in the process of conquering Central Asia. The supply lines crossing Kashgaria, Khiva and all the rest will be raided and pillaged by local nations who will become stronger at the expense of the Russians. That will require a response. Russia's own eastern territories are lightly populated and will have to be reinforced lest they slip out of control themselves.
While this is going on, Russia itself suffers from fighting a hugely expensive war at the other end of the world from where its strategic interests are actually being threatened: the hundreds of thousands of soldiers a conquest of China would require are soldier that Suvorov cannot use against the Ottomans and especially the French.
Also, at the exact moment that the Tsardom is trying to shore up its Orthodox credentials in the face of the terrifying specter that is atheist French republicanism they are now ignoring the King-killers of Paris so that a Romanov can preside over a Pagan kingdom in the east.

I will grant you one thing: this is the most novel scenario I've ever seen for a French Revolutionary hegemony in Europe, and it may very well reinvigorate the Ottomans in the process.

Far more likely is that whatever idiot Tsar commits to the affair commits suicide by strangling garroting themselves to death. Russia enters the nineteenth century a poorer, weaker nation, with the prestige of the Tsars hugely damaged.

 

[alexmilman]

Let's say in 1793, Catherine the Great is convinced by her lover to make an attempt to conquer China. Russia mobilizes 40,000-50,000 men and storms Outer Manchuria. Qing totally underestimates the Russians and only send a small army and it is wiped out. By then Qing's military was in severe decline due to the Banner system becoming decadent, widespread corruption, and loss of military morale. Not to mention Heshen was strangling the state with his mass endemic corruption and the state had become inefficient, unresponsive and in the hands of incompetents.

Qing send two large armies of "elite banner troops" to Manchuria, both of which are defeated. Rebellions then break out all over China due to Qing losing their aura of military superiority. Large parts of the country slip out of their control. Due to the turmoil and political risks, Qianlong doesn't abdicate in 1796. When he dies in 1799, Heshen launches a coup and takes out the heir Jiaqing, promoting a favourite to rule as puppet emperor.

.........

Is this realistic? Militarily feasible? Can 50,000 Russians defeat 200,000 Qing army in the 1790s?

The problem would not be as much to win with these odds but to get 50k Russian troops all the way to Manchuria and to keep them supplied and reinforced for a needed period of time. We are talking the late XVIII and it takes up to 2 years to get to the area from European Russia. Not sure if 50k would be adequate for the task: there is a need to capture and garrison a huge area with a lot of a population.

Of course, I am not even considering a conquest of a big part of China proper, just a piece of Manchuria: conquest of China did not make sense on too many accounts to even start talking about its practicality.

 

[RGB]

There's no need for Khiva etc: the advance would be either through Kazakh lands or through Siberia/Buryatia as usual. But what the others said applies: 50K soldiers is a stupendous effort and would likely be impossible to supply at that distance. And what happens when they get there? They'd have to live off the land in China. Which doesn't produce very much of what they need. It's a very extreme scenario.

You can accomplish part of what you want by having the Qing do the bleeding. For that, you'd need the banners to lose to much smaller Russian armies, which is maybe possible if everything is set up just right and goes just right. After that, the cascade of legitimacy losses etc. follows. But you can't, IMO, accomplish everything in the scenario.

 

[SenatorChickpea]

It's not just the 50 000 soldiers that are sent with the initial force. If the Russians embark upon this mad scheme to try and conquer China, 50 000 soldiers is grossly inadequate.
Even if we handwave another 100 000 men raised in local forces from some type of elite who are on board- which I find unlikely, given that the Manchurians are obviously not going to cooperate and the Han gentry are far more likely to make a bid for control themselves, even leaving aside the required numbers of Russians who speak local languages and can act as adequate administrators and so forth.... even with all that, that's simply not enough men. Even if the Chinese never kill a single Russian, disease and marching thousands of miles overland through Asia is going to take a hell of a toll.

Let's assume that the Russians persevere in this insanity for a decade; that's a decade of thousands of troops constantly marching through Asia, thousands of whom will die on the way as a simply logistical reality.

This is why I think Khiva and so forth will come into play. The OP blithely talks about letting the Qing territories in Central Asia go independent, but that is going to very much strengthen the nations in Central Asia who now threaten the ridiculously over strained supply route. I would think that in any case, a Russia who is looking to China is probably also going to be engaged in some vaster project to secure its southern flank as a matter of course.

But I may be overthinking this, since this entire scenario is so ridiculous.

 

[oca2073]

Could a Romanov monarch of China gain popular support? Is it possible for the Romanov monorch of China to become secure in his position, and independant from outside help inorder to hold his/her position.

Would there be Russians moving into China for jobs in the Chinese Romanov regime?

The Romanov will have to be politically very adept and adaptable, basically learn rudimentary Confucianism and Chinese very quickly. He will have maybe several years in Manchuria to prepare before the main invasion. He also needs to totally respect the Chinese and rule through them. He will only have limited help from Russia once he is established in China. Basically he needs to found a new Chinese dynasty and rule relatively convincingly with the support of only the initial 50,000 Russians no more. All the rest will be Han troops, officials, ect.

Russians will be barred from most administrative posts though they will hold extensive military posts helping to modernize the military. The Romanov will consult for experts, technicians, engineers, scientists from Europe but these recruits will mostly be teaching Confucian officials rather than holding any posts or power themselves.

 

[oca2073]

But actually conquering China would be beyond Russia in 1900, let alone 1800. The Qing might very well fall- but provincial elites would raise their own armies rather than submit. In 1800, those armies would be very close to the Russians in technology.

Yes they would, but by the time the Russians have conquered Beijing and declared a new dynasty, they will start raising tens of thousands of Han troops themselves and equipping them with European weaponry manufactured in Manchuria, training them in latest European tactics which were superior to what China had in 1800. This should give them the decisive edge over their rivals to reunite China.

The idea that the Russians would rule as Confucians is fantasy. The Romanovs are closely tied to the fortunes of the Orthodox Church and vice versa; they would alienate both their own base and fail to convince the Chinese they had any understanding of Confucianism.

In Russia yes. But in faraway China the Orthodox Church will have no automatic power and will let the Romanov do whatever they want, indeed they will probably be convinced that slow conversion would be better if they want to save as much souls as possible. Yes this will require a very smart Romanov who learns rudimentary Confucianism very quickly. I'm thinking this guy who was unconventional enough to defy Romanov authority will do. "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Duke_Konstantin_Pavlovich_of_Russia"

The war itself will require huge amounts of resources that simply cannot be supplied from European Russia in this period, given that the Tsars were still in the process of conquering Central Asia. The supply lines crossing Kashgaria, Khiva and all the rest will be raided and pillaged by local nations who will become stronger at the expense of the Russians. That will require a response. Russia's own eastern territories are lightly populated and will have to be reinforced lest they slip out of control themselves.

I don't think supplies will be a long term problem. Once Russia conquers large tracts of Manchuria they can live off the land there. They will also bring specialists who know how to manufacture cannon, muskets to Manchuria as well.

While this is going on, Russia itself suffers from fighting a hugely expensive war at the other end of the world from where its strategic interests are actually being threatened: the hundreds of thousands of soldiers a conquest of China would require are soldier that Suvorov cannot use against the Ottomans and especially the French.

No more than 50,000 fighting men/adventurers will head east. Also this will take place before the Napoleonic Wars, the Russians weren't heavily involved until quite late. After conquering Manchuria and Beijing, the rest of the fighting will largely be done by Han troops equipped with European weaponry fighting on behalf of a new conquest dynasty that has claimed the Mandate of Heaven.

Also, at the exact moment that the Tsardom is trying to shore up its Orthodox credentials in the face of the terrifying specter that is atheist French republicanism they are now ignoring the King-killers of Paris so that a Romanov can preside over a Pagan kingdom in the east.

They can brand it as a long term mission to convert the Chinese and save souls.

 

[SenatorChickpea]

Which Romanov meets that description, exactly? Catherine was a talented lady, but of the various princelings running around St Petersburg, which of them is going to be prepared to spend several years in Manchuria- far removed from all the joys of court and the levers of power- to prepare for the suicidal invasion south?

 

[oca2073]

The problem would not be as much to win with these odds but to get 50k Russian troops all the way to Manchuria and to keep them supplied and reinforced for a needed period of time. We are talking the late XVIII and it takes up to 2 years to get to the area from European Russia. Not sure if 50k would be adequate for the task: there is a need to capture and garrison a huge area with a lot of a population.

Of course, I am not even considering a conquest of a big part of China proper, just a piece of Manchuria: conquest of China did not make sense on too many accounts to even start talking about its practicality.

The conquest of China will be done by Han troops fighting on behalf of a new dynasty that has superior weapons that will more likely guarantee victory/spoils. Manchuria in my opinion can be conquered with 50,000 Russians because it's very lightly populated in this period.

The Russian troops will be supplied initially, but once they reach Manchuria they can live off the land plus they will bring manufacturing specialists with them to resupply in weapons and ammunition. I believe Manchuria has the resources to pull this off.

 

[oca2073]

Which Romanov meets that description, exactly? Catherine was a talented lady, but of the various princelings running around St Petersburg, which of them is going to be prepared to spend several years in Manchuria- far removed from all the joys of court and the levers of power- to prepare for the suicidal invasion south?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Duke_Konstantin_Pavlovich_of_Russia
He will be placed on the Dragon Throne. We need a very unorthodox Romanov to pull this off. Of course before this in the 1790s another capable general (non-Romanov) will be fighting in Manchuria on their behalf.

 

[SenatorChickpea]

Russia is fighting France from 1798! They just finished fighting the Ottomans in 1792! They cannot possibly spend huge quantities of blood and treasure fighting a power that grossly outnumbers them and is marginally behind in technology on the other side of the world, especially since doing so exposes them in their immediate strategic heartlands.

 

[oca2073]

Russia is fighting France from 1798! They just finished fighting the Ottomans in 1792! They cannot possibly spend huge quantities of blood and treasure fighting a power that grossly outnumbers them and is marginally behind in technology on the other side of the world, especially since doing so exposes them in their immediate strategic heartlands.

How many troops did they commit in 1798? Catherine started several wars after 1792, TTL she will redirect all those resources to this expedition. Also obviously in 1793 they have no way knowing that the Revolution in France was going to be this hard to defeat. And once the troops are in Manchuria, they won't be easy to call back...

 

[alexmilman]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Duke_Konstantin_Pavlovich_of_Russia
He will be placed on the Dragon Throne. Of course before this in the 1790s another capable general (non-Romanov) will be fighting in Manchuria on their behalf.

Well, the picture of Constantine dressing the Chinese into European uniforms and enforcing a parade ground drill definitely made my day.

 

[GauchoBadger]

None of this would ever have a chance in hell of success without some very discontent Chinese nobility (that is also somehow indoctrinated into believing that replacing the Manchu barbarians with a people from even further away is a better idea than just declaring a new Han dynasty), a much larger Russian army, and, lest we forget, proper logistics. I can't stress how stupid such a conquest plan would be in an age where trains, rail, and the Trans-Siberian Railway, haven't even been invented yet.

 

[oca2073]

Well, the picture of Constantine dressing the Chinese into European uniforms and enforcing a parade ground drill definitely made my day.

Haha he's not going to dress them into European uniforms rather he will have to be very sensitive about their culture. But yes new tactics, new weapons, new organization, everything.

 

[oca2073]

None of this would ever have a chance in hell of success without some very discontent Chinese nobility (that is also somehow indoctrinated into believing that replacing the Manchu barbarians with a people from even further away is a better idea than just declaring a new Han dynasty), a much larger Russian army, and, lest we forget, proper logistics. I can't stress how stupid such a conquest plan would be in an age where trains, rail, and the Trans-Siberian Railway, haven't even been invented yet.

The logistics problem will be solved thus: The Russians (30,000 men) will bring specialists with them to set up weapons manufacturing in Outer Manchuria. Once Qing fails to dislodge them there they will move into the rest of Manchuria and rely on it for food. This will allow a larger army to be brought to Manchuria (50,000 troops). After China collapses into turmoil due to rebellion they will capture Beijing, declare a new dynasty and gradually win Han support as China collapses into infighting. Then it will be mostly Han troops that reunite China for the Romanovs, trained in new weaponry, tactics, organization.

The Rebellions against the Qing after Russian military success will not be taking place on behalf of the Russians, but merely to overthrow the Qing in favour of a native dynasty. Also it will be a peasant rebellion mostly, not led by elites. But it will serve to weaken and divide China sufficiently for the Romanovs to grab a power base in Manchuria and Beijing and start training Han armies.

Don't get me wrong the battle to reunite China will be very bloody and difficult. Native dynasty contenders will emerge. But the Romanovs will be mostly using Chinese to fight Chinese, and the enthroned Romanov from Beijing will learn rudimentary Confucianism and Chinese very quickly. With the help of superior weapons manufacturing, plus superior training/tactics/organization that they drill into their Han armies, they will have the military edge. The Native Han dynasties start falling and eventually everyone just ends up surrendering to the Romanovs after a long war.

 

[kernals12]

It would be difficult, but I think Britain's control of India shows that it's possible.