alternatehistory.com

Among others in the Russian Empire's high command, Peter Bagration suggested an aggressive stance against the French and their allies. In March 1812, Bagration asked the Tsar to intentionally issue an ultimatum that Napoleon would never accept--the withdrawal of French influence to the Oder River--so that Russian forces in Bialystok could occupy Warsaw and create a Prussian and Austrian rebellion to overthrow French rule. This proposal was declined, and Napoleon invaded Russia from July to December 1812.

But what if the Tsar had accepted Bagration's plan? How would the Russian invasion of Poland have proceeded, and the rebellion of Prussia and Austria against France?

I expect that it would probably end well for Napoleon. Fighting on "home turf" rather than a dangerous expedition, he would win once again. Giving him another excuse to weaken Prussia and Austria, perhaps even dismantling almost the entirety of both. Napoleon could probably carve out Lithuania, which may or may not be attached to Poland.

What do you think?
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