Russia stays in WW1 but America doesn't enter it

Russia stays in the war continuing to tie down the same number of enemy troops.

However isolationist America does not enter it at all.

Can British strength win through and enable an allied victory?

Cheers

Garth
 

ninebucks

Banned
Do you mean that Russia never falls into revolution; or that the post-revolutionary government decides to continue the war?
 
Well basically that she remains in (whatever the reason) such that she continues to tie down the same number of enemy troops. So I wasn't quite so concerned as to how this was achieved just that it was achieved.

America's entry and Russia's defeat are sometimes seen as counterbalancing aspects to the conclusion of WW1.

Cheers

Garth
 
Simply put, yes.

So long as both fronts hold the line the British economic blockade will eventually force the Germans to the peace table. With the Russians still in the game the threat of the Western Front collapsing becomes much smaller as the Germans won't have the manpower freed up from Brest-Litovsk. It's not clear whether a simple peace by exhaustion will stop the fighting or the Entente will be victorious, but barring some catastrophic disaster for the Allies the Germans have minimal chances of winning.
 
Well, the German front line collapsed in 1918 before the bulk of the US forces were available so...
 
Surely the main difference would be the peace settlements - Russia may hope to gain Germany's Polish regions, and would definietely try to gain control of Constantinople from Turkey and support the creation of Yugoslavia. Any other thoughts? America staying away would mean no 14 points at Versailles - no League of Nations!
 
I don't see why Germany can't still win this - Caporetto and the French Mutiny both happened in 1917 before either Russia dropped out and the USA entered.

There is far too much talk about the inevitability of German defeat in these types of discussions.

By 1917 the Russian armies, even in the best scenario, were capable of only limited offensives. The best scenario for Russia remaining in the war would be for Michael to accept the crown, which would bolster the reformists against the revolutionaries in the provisional government. He was acclaimed with quite a mixture of belief and optimism by soldiers at the front when news came down that Nicholas II had abdicated in his favour, and if he could have built upon that to stabilise his reign. The Allies were still sending material in, but without the USA this would not actually reach OTL levels (ie no massive stores in Vladivostock).

For the Central Powers, the war is a balancing act between the fronts, but in such operations as the conquest of Serbia, or of Rumania, they have proven quite efficient at shuffling the pack and striking with efficiency where required, before ramping down the commitment once again

And don't forget, that without the prospect of the US entry into the war, morale on the Allied side is going to continue to decline. There are no more reinforcements for the Western front other than yet more call-ups of the young men from Britain and France, with the prospect of yet more fruitless offensives and deeply regrets telegrames

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

trajen777

Banned
The entry of the US in the war was really a moral booster that

  • Forced the Germans to a quick offence on the Western Front – this built expectations of a quick victory
  • Allowed a constant stream of millions of fresh troops to the allies
  • Allowed a more direct influx of badly needed supplies

The Russians were a spent force in total collapse after the Bruslov offence. The Germans could have reduced there forces dramatically in the East and still kept on the offence. The real question was how much food stuff could be gotten in the East to support the German population. The French mutinies were base don the failed offences of 1917 just like the German collapse were based upon the failed offences of 1918.

Best guess is Germany gets land in the East – Poland and some Baltic states – Loses Alsace – Lorraine in the West
 
Post the initial March rebellion its difficult but not impossible to keep Russia in the conflict. Probably would require a markedly better leadership and decision that they would not lunch attacks for at least a year while they rebuilt the forces, especially their moral and equipment levels. With political and economic changes to boost public support then Germany might be able to win a few victories but this would be a lot more difficult, would extend their logistics and provide a rallying point for the regime, 'Mother Russia in peril'. As such I could see the Russians staying in the conflict for at least another couple of years unless the Germans pressed them very hard, which I doubt if they would have the resources to do given the crisis in the west and at home.

True the French army was weakened but that was predominantly a rebellion against futile offensives. [Coupled with some errors the French high command had made, like not allowing leave for a lot of the troops]. With Petain's reforms the French would still have had a lot of fight if the Germans had pushed them hard, as 1918 showed. Also Germany was not only in a worsening state but the position of its allies was pretty dire at this point. Could have been very interesting if negotiations had resulted in Emperor Karl obtaining a separate peace. Would also have been useful if Haig had avoided his excesses at Passendale. Could have inflicted markedly more German casualties and suffered a lot less himself if he had been less greedy.

Under those circumstances the Germans might have been forced into some sort of desperate offensive in the west even without any impending US entry and it would have almost certainly had the historical result, especially with more forces committed in the east.

However in one way this is irrelevant as without another and fairly drastic POD the US will already be in the war by the time Russia fell OTL. As such, unless you have something like convoys being organised earlier meaning far less shipping losses meaning the US doesn't enter the conflict.

By far the easiest way is to have the allies win earlier, by avoiding some of the mistakes they made. Even if the war is still on-going by say spring 1917 if their better organised and Germany clearly on its last legs then the likelihood of Russia dropping out and the US entering is probably reduced.

Steve
 
They can, but it would depend much on what you mean by America doesn't enter at all. If you mean merely that the US did what it did, but stopped short of the war, then American supplies might have tipped the scale, but it would depend on what Germany did on the Western front. Most likely outcome here would be a negotiated settlement that sees Alsace-Lorraine returned to France and Germany deprived of its gains in the East. Whether Russia stops or not, vast swaths of Eastern Europe would probably be in German hands by the time the blockade would become lethal, and thus the East would provide the lifeline in terms of food for Germany.

Now, if you mean that the US was truly neutral and isolationist, rather than neutral in name only, then both sides would be so exhausted that it would probably mean return to status ante quo, unless German Uboats knock out Britain (remember, this presupposes no American assistance at all). Then I can see a clear, though not a total German victory.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Perhaps the front remain stable, but the brittish blockade destroy the german economy. Both the entente powers and the Central Powers grow near collapse. Finally they agree to sign a peace according to the lines drawn up by the American president Woodrow Wilson. Germany lost Alsace- Lorraine and some polish territory. A polish state was created from german, austrian and russian territory. Italy gained south Tirol. Germany did not lose her colonies, Bulgaria lost some territory. A Arab Kingdom was created in Iraq, but the Ottoman Empire did not lose additional territory, but was forced to accept a federalized contitution, giving anatolina greeks, kurds, arabs, armenians and smaller minorities authonomy. Ireland gained independence and Belgium was resored. Serbia gained Vojvodina and united with Montenegro. Austria- Hungary federalized into The Habsburg Confederacy consisting of states drawn up on ethnic lines. Russia got the privilege to choose a king for Poland (A Romanov grand duke was chosen, after he converted to catholicism). Germany became a republic. Ethnic groups in Russia became more violent after the war, and communism became a serous threat all over in Europe. Bolsheviks and mensheviks confused the situation in Russia, while the real threat were in stes like Germany, France and Italy, where the communists became a dominant group in the parliaments.
 
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