I think an underated part of chinas success is that other countries were relativly lax when dealing with them, im not sure russia would be given the same benefit especialy with the cold war mentaltiy still being so prelevant in the political class of both america and russia
Russia Resurgent - A TL
- Thread starter Sarthak
- Start date
I wonder how Turkmenbashi dealt with the oligarchs who moved to Russia?
Slightly yes. Of course Russia won't achieve China level of economic success, however the economic situation will be a whole lot better.
Turkmenistan is an ethnic state. Russians or any other nationals have no rights there, including property rights.
They reportedly had business and shady links in Turkemenistan until the mid 2005s. It's the most logical place to go when you're on the run in Russia; as it is the closest and safest place. Turkmenistan had it's own oligarchic problems during these times.
Nobody ever fled to Turkmenistan. It's like fleeing to North Korea.
Well, yes, in the context of "we'll continue using the systems designed for a centrally planned economy because those worked so well for us".
Uh, when you have riches there; you flee there. Many Russian Oligarchs like Garankin and Khramov did flee there OTL as well.
First you invent some utter stupidity, then have "Russians" say it, and then, "see, those Asiatic Untermensche are incapable of self-governing without Civilized White Man's whip".
Igor Garankin is not an olygarch, and he didn't flee anywhere. He's a well-to-do businessman with interests in Turkmenistan (living in Russia). Viktor Khramov serves as an assistant to Turkmenistan President, he was born in Turkmenistan and resides there.
Garakin is considered to be an Oligarch of Russia with reports in the CAATSA, and Khramov allegedly has monetary oligarchic frauds with the Davos Pact. The closest festering land for Oligarchs in Eurasia for the Davos Pact was Turkmenistan.
Based on personal experience of Russia in the 1990s.
Simply because senior Russian decision makers have had a lifetime of operating in a centrally planned economy and near zero experience of market economies. The Soviet system assumed that people would follow the rules, with harsh prison terms for those who broke the rules. For example the currency exchange market worked by sending a paper transfer request for $ to one department of the central bank, while at the same time sending a transfer payment of roubles to another department of the central bank, which would be matched up later (after the $ had been paid out). Guess what happened in practice?
Western systems assumed that people would game the system and put in checks to ensure they didn't.
1998
Chapter 3: 1998
***
1998
***
The year 1998 began with slight fanfare as the Russian GDP showed a growth rate of 7.1% last year, which was directly attributed to the success of the half completed 720 Days Program. It was estimated that without the Asian Financial Crisis, the growth rate would have hit 10%, but however that remains speculation, however the growth rate of 7% remained reality.
Yavlinsky predicted that the debt of the Soviet Union was possible to be cleared by the year of 2000. As such, speaking about economics, the buyback scheme and merger scheme in Russia ended and it was implemented in Belarus. Belarusian economics came under the control of the State Economy.
The new inclusion of Belarus into the Russian state also meant that the Kalingrad corridor between Russia was now severely shortened and the Foreign Ministry was currently trying to reach a deal with Lithuania over a free movement deal in one highway to and fro from the exclave, however with the Lithuanian government not recognizing the incorporation of Belarus into the Russian State, it was never going to be negotiated as the Lithuanian government flat out refused, and this put a severe dent into the Russo-Lithuanian relations. In retaliation, the Lithuanian, and Latvian governments announced that in 2000, their nations would be joining NATO.
This was extremely hurtful to the Russian geopolitics and the security of the Russian borders. Russia unilaterally cut off diplomatic ties between Lithuania and Latvia and stated that an embargo on Lithuanian and Latvian goods would be conducted in Russia. Considering the Lithuanian and Latvian contributions to the Russian economy was so negligent that basically no one even knew about it, however the Russian contribution to the Baltic economy was huge and in some cases in Latvia where a quarter of the Estonian imports came from. This led to severe economic problems and stress in the Baltic states with inflation rapidly growing. Interest rates in the Baltic states grew to levels higher than 12-15% and the country’s hit a roadblock to their economic recovery. America condemned this action and stated that Russia had no right to conduct itself in such a manner. Russia retaliated by stating that America had no business expanding their military alliance to Russia’s own backyard bringing up an analogy of Mexico joining the Warsaw Pact during the Cold War which made the American government suspiciously quiet. Russia did publicly announce in January 25th that Russia would remove the economic embargo and sanctions by the end of the year, however if Lithuania and Latvia did not back down on their stance of joining NATO, Russia would seize all of their assets in Russia and then drop the sanctions. This was a huge conundrum for the Baltic states.
Russia reiterated that Latvia and Lithuania withdraw their intention to join NATO on January 31st, however no response was given. The situation was slowly escalating as tensions rose and the entire fiasco was called the ‘Baltic Crisis’. Yavlinsky publicly spoke on February 1st in the Kremlin looked on by thousands of Moscow citizens.
“The situation in the Baltic is one of emergency. We cannot allow any sort of military alliance try to envelope the Russian nation. We cannot allow that to happen under any circumstance. This government pleads with the Lithuanian, and Latvian governments to be pragmatic and to allow a peaceful matter to come through between all parties involved in this crisis.”
Grigory Yavlinsky imploring the Baltic States
However just in case the next day, general partial mobilization was ordered through the military of the Russian Federation. FSB director Vladimir Putin privately told Yavlinsky that the situation of the FSB was ‘poor in comparison to the KGB’. This was of course detrimental news to the Russian government, however Yavlinsky was adamant on his point. Through diplomatic channels in Poland, the government started to enter negotiations with the Baltic states who after a month being hit with the blockade and having faced severe economic problems and as well as the Belarusian and Russian populace of their countries becoming rebellious, started to third party negotiations with the Russian Federation.
Russia demanded that Latvia and Lithuania join the Non-Aligned Movement. Lithuania flatly refused this in the first series of the negotiations. Russia’s position was that it would allow the Baltic states if it wanted to join the EU and the NATO freewill and peacekeeping exercises etc, however would not allow NATO to allow Latvia and Lithuania to join. In Yavlinsky’s own words ‘Russia doesn’t want American troops to be based in the Baltic like a dagger poised at our jugulars.’
Latvia, which had a huge Russian minority, around 20% of the entire nations, was becoming increasingly restless, and with the economic downturn, severe inflation, and severe economic de-control, and with a slightly rebellious population, Latvia caved in, and the government signed the Tallinn Accords with Russia.
It officially stated that Latvia would adopt military neutrality in any kind of military alliance or entangle between its neighbors. Lithuania caved in the last respectively in February 25th. The Baltic Crisis was the first crisis after the Cold War in the area, and it had been a Russian success. In the Tallinn Accords, the two countries had recognized Russian annexation of Belarus as well, and Russia lifted the blockade on February 26th and unfroze their assets. On the next day the Baltic heads stated that they would create a Baltic Assembly for creating an economic cooperative union between the three Baltic States and Russia supported this action on the part of the three. During February 27th Latvia and Lithuania withdrew their membership from NATO much to America’s chagrin. The entire crisis was largely not a good thing for Russia on the international stage, at least in Europe, as the Russian ‘Russophobia’ was starting to regain traction, however on a smaller level. However, Russia had been adamant on this point, and despite the fact that Latvia and Lithuania had signed the Tallinn Accords, secret agreements between the Americans and the Latvians and Lithuanians were drawn up; like the agreements between Sweden and NATO during the Cold War. Estonia, had remained neutral in the crisis, knowing rightly that a response would come, especially after the annexation of Belarus, and was largely ‘minding it’s own business’. Whilst the Western media liked to liken the economic crisis in the Baltic to be the same hunger situation of the Soviet Union, that was pretty wrong, and the situation and the crisis was largely limited to the government and the ‘restlessness’ of the Russian minority in each states. Because of this, geopolitically, little changed, in the long run and short run. Both. However the first wedge between Russo-Western relations had been made.
However that took a side seat to the upcoming crisis. The Kosovo War began on February 28th, 1998. Increased repression from the Yugoslav government against the ethnic Albanians of the Kosovo Region had led to the formation of the Kosovo Liberation Army or the KLA, which had used terror attacks against the Yugoslav army to attack them. As such the KLA openly stated that they would now look for independence and/or merger with Albania and started to openly attack the Yugoslav army, with a massacre in Likoshane happening. Russia, historically Yugoslavia and Serbia’s ally was not going to get involved in any particular war, especially since, Russia’s own economy was still under growth and heal and the new Military Reforms bill proposed by FSB head Vladimir Putin, were still just that, bills and weren’t being implemented at all.
The KLA in one guerilla camp.
However, needing to show some solidarity with a historic ally, Yavlinsky on March 4th said that individual volunteer military officials would be transferred to Serbia under their own free will, if they wished to. 1 Motor Rifle Division and 1 Armored Division volunteered to go to Yugoslavia under the Yugoslav administration and Yugoslav military. On March 10th they were seated into planes to go to Belgrade. This move was highly criticized by NATO, however considering these were volunteer regiments and divisions, an outdated yet completely valid tactic, there was little standing in the war between the Russian troops and armor successfully landing in Belgrade and unloading their full capability onto the field by the end of the month.
Russian Volunteer troops in Yugoslavia and the Kosovo War.
Yavlisnky despite having sent troops, however did give a speech stating that “A peaceful resolution between all powers involved will allow the Yugoslavs and the Albanians would allow for less bloodshed, which is highly necessary.”
Internal politics in Russia at the time were also brewing. FSB leader Vladimir Putin was raising voice over the military ineptitude showed by the Russian Army in Chechnya and the fumbled partial mobilization during the Baltic Crisis. Vladimir Putin was calling for a study of the Federal Army and Armed Forces and to necessitate more reforms which would have better results for the Russian Armed Forces as a whole. Alexander Lebed and Sergey Shoyu supported the position of Vladimir Putin and in March 15th Alexander Lebed, Sergey Shoyu and Vladimir Putin co-authored a bill named the ‘Russian Armed Reforms Proposal’. The Proposal was extensive and was proposed before the State Duma.
Vladimir Putin, the Leader of the FSB; the successor to the KGB.
The State Duma voted on the proposal and the bill passed with 289-161 votes in the Duma.
The Proposal’s reforms were the following:-
The Russian Command of Armies were also divided into the following.
Meanwhile the Russian Economy started foreign investment drives as the government also managed to invest into a road project in Estonia linking Tallinn and Narva motorway. This was accepted by the Estonian government very reluctantly however, Estonian President Lennart Mari gave a short speech regarding it. “Russian investment into our development shows that Russia is slowly growing out of its economic stagnation era. We must also follow in the footsteps of Russia and make our economy strong again. Estonian and Russian relations have always been shaky, however with these new investment plans, and plans for extension of Estonian assets in Russia, this government hopes that Estonia and Russia can have cordial relations once again and leave the stigma of the past where it belongs; in the past.”
Estonian President Lennart Mari.
Estonia, was largely now going on the road for rapprochement.
This however was met with negative response from Latvia and Lithuania as further Russian investment into their economies and development were curtailed. However despite this, Yavlinsky continued the growth of the Russian Economy. China’s economy which was growing to be a behemoth was quickly starting to overtake the Japanese economy. Yavlinsky, the economist that he was, saw the advantages of investing into the Chinese economy and the rising Red Dragon of Asia. On March 29th, the government of Russia announced that Russia was buying a portion of the Chinese industries in Manchuria (around 1/10) which were undergoing privatization under Xiaoping’s reforms in China.
On April 3rd the Chinese government approved of these developments and the Russian government officially bought portions of these industries the next week.
Meanwhile as India started to test Nuclear Weapons in Pokhran, bringing in worldwide condemnation, Russia was found in a quandary. They could either support or deny the Indians. However considering India was an enemy of China, Yavlinsky was hesitant to do much, and opted for a neutral position instead. Quietly though, Yavlinsky stated that “India is provoking Pakistan and China, incessantly raising tensions. If I had to choose between China and India, I would choose China.”
Indian Nuclear Test in Pokhran.
Yavlisnky had gone forward with a rapprochement program with China and this was clearly affecting India, as Indian ambassadors and diplomats were protesting against the move by Russia. The infamous Indian media known for their exaggeration spoke about how ‘Russia had betrayed India’ however, Yavlisnky saw more economic and military profiting for the Russians in China.
Meanwhile throughout the later stages of the month of April, Russia began to privatize the merged corporations and industries it had bought back in a weathered and organized manner. Some of the financial institutions would remain under partial state ownership, however most would be fully privatized later on.
Prompted by economic growth, and as the extension of the Trans-Siberian rail in its mid stages, Yavlinsky proposed another infrastructure in the country of Russia. Russia still held assets in Central Asia and the government of Russia wished to capitalize on the fact that Russia still controlled a good portion of Central Asia’s economy. Increased assets in Central Asia would do a world of good to the Russian economy beyond the Ural mountains.
Yavlinsky proposed a medium scale railway line between the Russian cities of Volgagrad, Omsk and the Central Asian Capitals to bolster trade relations between the nations and to increase economic productivity in all countries involved.
Kazakhstan who was facing a recession due to a slump in oil prices, agreed readily and so did the other Central Asian states, which all had fallen into a small scale recession.
Meanwhile the railway line to Yakutsk opened up as the final construction ended. As such the final ground works for the railway line to Anadyr were being finalized and slowly implemented as well. On May 28th in response to the Indian nuclear testing, Pakistan detonated their own nuclear device as well, which led to the USA, and other countries to raise sanctions on Pakistan. Russia, who was in no condition to block out a major regional power, declined to do so, however did raise warnings to the Pakistani ambassador and raised a few embargoes on Pakistan.
As the month of May ended, Yugoslavia and Russia led talks over the Kosovo War going on in Yugoslavia at the moment. Russia managed to arrange talks between Albania and Yugoslavia regarding Kosovo. However talks only erupted into more tense relations as the leaders and diplomats of Albania and Yugoslavia stooped to an arguing shouting match with each other rather than actually speaking with each other regarding the crisis in a well manner. It didn’t help that the Americans passed photos of showing solidarity with the KLA which made the KLA and the ethnic Albanians in Kosovo even more emboldened now that the World Superpower was backing them.
Yavlinsky later sent stated in a press meeting that “The situation in Kosovo is a very delicate situation. Both sides need to understand that without dialogue, the only way this ends is through needless bloodshed which had enveloped the Balkan Peninsula. Both sides must be open for talks for a peaceful resolution.”
However talks were fading and a return to violence was erupting in the Balkan Peninsula. Romania and Bulgaria both were very tense regarding the crisis and Russia was actively trying to barter talks, however to no avail.
World Tensions erupted further when the Guinea Bissau Civil War. However despite this, despite the dirty manner of the deal, Russia began to export weapons in the crisis and conflict. The World’s weapons exporters were clearly doing so, and to fall behind would have been economic fallacy. Meanwhile a major military decision was also made. The T-72 fleet of the Russian Military was to be sent to storage, whilst the entire Russian armored fleet would be made of T-80 and T-90 tanks. Russia currently had around 7000 T-72 tanks in service, and the Russian plan was to mass-produce the T-90 Tanks to supplement them. The T-90 tank had received international acclaim, and the tank was among the best in the world, and Russia wished to have a strong armored background, and having outdated weaponry didn’t seem to be a part of that. The Russian Ministry of Defense predicted that by 2005, the fleet of T-72’s could completely be stored and replaced by the T-90 tank fleet.
The T-90 Main Battle Tank.
On June 17th Yavlinsky announced that construction of the Central Asian Railway Line had begun between all states involved. On June 20th the government of Yavlinsky announced that unemployment had slumped in Russia by a huge margin, and the report was backed up by statements from the World Bank and IMF both of which stated the new economic period of Russia as the ‘Russian Economic Miracle’.
Currently Russia was also in the process of upgrading and making better commodity industries. The quality of commodities in Russia, which once had been so abysmal, with the arrival of proper privatization and proper marketing and competition started to grow and become of global standards and the Russian Commodity industry went through a huge boom in population during this time.
Russia was also as off this time trying to get in within the Industry 3.0 to 4.0 intermediate level with increased investments into robotics and digital industries.
On July 17th the government of Russia signed the bill creating the International Criminal Court. Yavlinsky was also starting to finally get rid of the vestiges of the Oligarchy as lesser oligarchs started to leave the nation to other nations and their assets were systematically seized by the government. The increased assets revenue meant that the Russian reserves grew as well. Increased production and exports also meant that the Russian foreign currency reserves were also increasing by a huge margin.
As the month of August came around the 720 Days Program were entering their final phases. The 720 Days program had been an astounding success on part of the Russians and the government was eagerly drawing up new plans as well for after the end of the program. The draft and proposal for a 4-Year Plan between 1998 and 2002 were being drafted as well.
The 4-year plan was focused on three portions of the Russian economy:-
The 3-Year Plan bills were put to vote in the Duma on August 15th, and received the support of 306 of the votes. It was agreed to start implementation in November 1st 1998 to end on November 1st, 2001. The second 3-Year Plan was to start on 1st January 2002 and end in 1st January 2005.
Meanwhile throughout September, the last vestiges and parts of the 720 Days Program were implemented as the last portions of the industries were privatized. Throughout the entire fiasco of the previous administration, the Russian economy had grown steadfast and the country’s economy was booming. Russian investment and Russian FDI were growing as well and the 720 Days Program ended on 1st October 1998 with economic experts lauding the program to be one of the 20th centuries most successful economic directives and plans. Majority of the praise for the plan was kept at the feet of Yavlisnky and partially Zyuganov as well.
Meanwhile the final parts in the military restructuring were implemented in the Russian military as the few volunteer regiments fighting in Kosovo provided Russia with much needed military intelligence and military capability tests. Meanwhile Russian aerospace industries, in one of the very first return of the famed Russian Military Complex announced that MiG and Sukhoi were working together for a counter for the American Lockheed Martin F-22 stealth tactical bomber. The project was named SM Boggrom with the SM standing for Sukhoi and MiG. Boggrom in Russian meant God Thunder. Components of this aircraft and tests were already going on. This project announcement was met with a lot of mixed results. Economists praised it as a testament to how far the Russian economy was progressing enough to focus on their defense industry as well, however NATO countries and most specifically, America was upset that Russia was developing a counter to the vaunted F-22.
An animated depiction of the SM Boggrom.
However problems for competitors in the Russian Aerospace competition compounded when on October 28th Mig and Sukhoi announced that the two industries were going to merge to form the SM Aerospace Industries. The merger had been prompted by the Russian government and they owned around 10% of the total shares of the new SM industry. MiG and Sukhoi both held an equal share over the new industry, making it one of the most balanced mergers out there.
However, the competition was not without challenge. Tupolev announced that they were independently looking into making a new bomber that could do heavy damage into enemy lands. Experts suggested that this new project of Tupolev, named still not disclosed, would not be able to reach the levels of the B-22 bomber, however would be near to the level, as experts looked on at the amount of investment the share holders of Tupolev invested into this new project.
Meanwhile the Russian ministries finally showed some good news on the demographic front as reports stated that the rate of population decline was declining and stagnating a lot. The reports predicted that within half a decade, the population of Russia, if more effective policies like the ones put in place were implemented further, the Russian population could enter a period of slow growth again. Yavlinsky and Zyuganov passed the Second Demographic Act endorsing it and alcohol tariffs were raised to around 1.2% from the previous 0.5% percent to curtail alcoholism. The price for abortion were also raised slowly and gradually which made abortion slightly more expensive and less attractive to Russian couples.
On November 20th, the Zarya module, the first module of the International Space Station was launched by the Russian Cosmodrone in Kazakhstan beginning the construction of the International Space Station.
Launching of the Zarya Module into Space.
Meanwhile the first portion of the 3-Year Plan was beginning in its implementation as feasibility surveys were conducted, and Russian machines were beginning to invest into the Volga delta into creating an agricultural zone.
The Volga River tract in Russia.
The government of Russia was also increasingly coming to be concerned by the Kosovo War, as NATO involvement became increasingly likely. Meanwhile the Iraqi Disarmament Crisis was also starting to heat up and the Russian government was increasingly becoming agitated.
In good news for Russia at the end of the year, the Russian economy grew by 6.7%, a huge growth for the national economy.
***
AN: One flashpoint already there now. One Russia 'won'. Spoiler alert: Russia doesn't 'win' the following 'flashpoints'.
***
***
1998
***
The year 1998 began with slight fanfare as the Russian GDP showed a growth rate of 7.1% last year, which was directly attributed to the success of the half completed 720 Days Program. It was estimated that without the Asian Financial Crisis, the growth rate would have hit 10%, but however that remains speculation, however the growth rate of 7% remained reality.
Yavlinsky predicted that the debt of the Soviet Union was possible to be cleared by the year of 2000. As such, speaking about economics, the buyback scheme and merger scheme in Russia ended and it was implemented in Belarus. Belarusian economics came under the control of the State Economy.
The new inclusion of Belarus into the Russian state also meant that the Kalingrad corridor between Russia was now severely shortened and the Foreign Ministry was currently trying to reach a deal with Lithuania over a free movement deal in one highway to and fro from the exclave, however with the Lithuanian government not recognizing the incorporation of Belarus into the Russian State, it was never going to be negotiated as the Lithuanian government flat out refused, and this put a severe dent into the Russo-Lithuanian relations. In retaliation, the Lithuanian, and Latvian governments announced that in 2000, their nations would be joining NATO.
This was extremely hurtful to the Russian geopolitics and the security of the Russian borders. Russia unilaterally cut off diplomatic ties between Lithuania and Latvia and stated that an embargo on Lithuanian and Latvian goods would be conducted in Russia. Considering the Lithuanian and Latvian contributions to the Russian economy was so negligent that basically no one even knew about it, however the Russian contribution to the Baltic economy was huge and in some cases in Latvia where a quarter of the Estonian imports came from. This led to severe economic problems and stress in the Baltic states with inflation rapidly growing. Interest rates in the Baltic states grew to levels higher than 12-15% and the country’s hit a roadblock to their economic recovery. America condemned this action and stated that Russia had no right to conduct itself in such a manner. Russia retaliated by stating that America had no business expanding their military alliance to Russia’s own backyard bringing up an analogy of Mexico joining the Warsaw Pact during the Cold War which made the American government suspiciously quiet. Russia did publicly announce in January 25th that Russia would remove the economic embargo and sanctions by the end of the year, however if Lithuania and Latvia did not back down on their stance of joining NATO, Russia would seize all of their assets in Russia and then drop the sanctions. This was a huge conundrum for the Baltic states.
Russia reiterated that Latvia and Lithuania withdraw their intention to join NATO on January 31st, however no response was given. The situation was slowly escalating as tensions rose and the entire fiasco was called the ‘Baltic Crisis’. Yavlinsky publicly spoke on February 1st in the Kremlin looked on by thousands of Moscow citizens.
“The situation in the Baltic is one of emergency. We cannot allow any sort of military alliance try to envelope the Russian nation. We cannot allow that to happen under any circumstance. This government pleads with the Lithuanian, and Latvian governments to be pragmatic and to allow a peaceful matter to come through between all parties involved in this crisis.”
Grigory Yavlinsky imploring the Baltic States
However just in case the next day, general partial mobilization was ordered through the military of the Russian Federation. FSB director Vladimir Putin privately told Yavlinsky that the situation of the FSB was ‘poor in comparison to the KGB’. This was of course detrimental news to the Russian government, however Yavlinsky was adamant on his point. Through diplomatic channels in Poland, the government started to enter negotiations with the Baltic states who after a month being hit with the blockade and having faced severe economic problems and as well as the Belarusian and Russian populace of their countries becoming rebellious, started to third party negotiations with the Russian Federation.
Russia demanded that Latvia and Lithuania join the Non-Aligned Movement. Lithuania flatly refused this in the first series of the negotiations. Russia’s position was that it would allow the Baltic states if it wanted to join the EU and the NATO freewill and peacekeeping exercises etc, however would not allow NATO to allow Latvia and Lithuania to join. In Yavlinsky’s own words ‘Russia doesn’t want American troops to be based in the Baltic like a dagger poised at our jugulars.’
Latvia, which had a huge Russian minority, around 20% of the entire nations, was becoming increasingly restless, and with the economic downturn, severe inflation, and severe economic de-control, and with a slightly rebellious population, Latvia caved in, and the government signed the Tallinn Accords with Russia.
It officially stated that Latvia would adopt military neutrality in any kind of military alliance or entangle between its neighbors. Lithuania caved in the last respectively in February 25th. The Baltic Crisis was the first crisis after the Cold War in the area, and it had been a Russian success. In the Tallinn Accords, the two countries had recognized Russian annexation of Belarus as well, and Russia lifted the blockade on February 26th and unfroze their assets. On the next day the Baltic heads stated that they would create a Baltic Assembly for creating an economic cooperative union between the three Baltic States and Russia supported this action on the part of the three. During February 27th Latvia and Lithuania withdrew their membership from NATO much to America’s chagrin. The entire crisis was largely not a good thing for Russia on the international stage, at least in Europe, as the Russian ‘Russophobia’ was starting to regain traction, however on a smaller level. However, Russia had been adamant on this point, and despite the fact that Latvia and Lithuania had signed the Tallinn Accords, secret agreements between the Americans and the Latvians and Lithuanians were drawn up; like the agreements between Sweden and NATO during the Cold War. Estonia, had remained neutral in the crisis, knowing rightly that a response would come, especially after the annexation of Belarus, and was largely ‘minding it’s own business’. Whilst the Western media liked to liken the economic crisis in the Baltic to be the same hunger situation of the Soviet Union, that was pretty wrong, and the situation and the crisis was largely limited to the government and the ‘restlessness’ of the Russian minority in each states. Because of this, geopolitically, little changed, in the long run and short run. Both. However the first wedge between Russo-Western relations had been made.
However that took a side seat to the upcoming crisis. The Kosovo War began on February 28th, 1998. Increased repression from the Yugoslav government against the ethnic Albanians of the Kosovo Region had led to the formation of the Kosovo Liberation Army or the KLA, which had used terror attacks against the Yugoslav army to attack them. As such the KLA openly stated that they would now look for independence and/or merger with Albania and started to openly attack the Yugoslav army, with a massacre in Likoshane happening. Russia, historically Yugoslavia and Serbia’s ally was not going to get involved in any particular war, especially since, Russia’s own economy was still under growth and heal and the new Military Reforms bill proposed by FSB head Vladimir Putin, were still just that, bills and weren’t being implemented at all.
The KLA in one guerilla camp.
However, needing to show some solidarity with a historic ally, Yavlinsky on March 4th said that individual volunteer military officials would be transferred to Serbia under their own free will, if they wished to. 1 Motor Rifle Division and 1 Armored Division volunteered to go to Yugoslavia under the Yugoslav administration and Yugoslav military. On March 10th they were seated into planes to go to Belgrade. This move was highly criticized by NATO, however considering these were volunteer regiments and divisions, an outdated yet completely valid tactic, there was little standing in the war between the Russian troops and armor successfully landing in Belgrade and unloading their full capability onto the field by the end of the month.
Russian Volunteer troops in Yugoslavia and the Kosovo War.
Yavlisnky despite having sent troops, however did give a speech stating that “A peaceful resolution between all powers involved will allow the Yugoslavs and the Albanians would allow for less bloodshed, which is highly necessary.”
Internal politics in Russia at the time were also brewing. FSB leader Vladimir Putin was raising voice over the military ineptitude showed by the Russian Army in Chechnya and the fumbled partial mobilization during the Baltic Crisis. Vladimir Putin was calling for a study of the Federal Army and Armed Forces and to necessitate more reforms which would have better results for the Russian Armed Forces as a whole. Alexander Lebed and Sergey Shoyu supported the position of Vladimir Putin and in March 15th Alexander Lebed, Sergey Shoyu and Vladimir Putin co-authored a bill named the ‘Russian Armed Reforms Proposal’. The Proposal was extensive and was proposed before the State Duma.
Vladimir Putin, the Leader of the FSB; the successor to the KGB.
The State Duma voted on the proposal and the bill passed with 289-161 votes in the Duma.
The Proposal’s reforms were the following:-
- The closing of Military Towns, which were largely obsolete and converting them to industrial centers, which would aid the ongoing economic progress of Russia.
- Reducing the Active Personnel of the Russian Army to 1.2 Million men, with 850,000 in the West and 350,000 in the East.
- Slowly increasing training standards to make the 1.2 million army a fully professional armed military force.
- Reducing the imbalance between troops and officer numbers.
- Creating a professional NCO corps in the army.
- Reducing the size and complexity of the Central Command Structure.
- Introducing more Civilian and Aux Logistics in the army.
- Elimination of Cadre Formations.
- Reorganization of troops into firm Division system; the old division between the Division and Brigade System had made a huge confusions within the military ranks.
- The Reduction of the Military Districts into Western Military District, Southern Military District, Central Military District, Eastern Military District.
- The Division of the Army into 5 types of Divisions; Armored Divisions, Motor Rifle Division, Mechanized Divisions, Artillery Divisions and Mechanized Infantry Divisions.
- Dividing the Air Commands into 1st Air Command, 2nd Air Command, 3rd Air Command and 4th Air Command along with their corresponding Military Districts.
- A total inspection of the Russian Navy. Upto 2/3 of the obsolete ships to be scrapped and to be sent to civilian reconstruction of maritime ships or for future naval building or for target practice. The rest of the Navy to be brought upto full maritime war strength to bolster the loss in numbers. Primary Responsibility of the Navy to be given to naval protection, and secondary responsibility to be power projection, and not the mix mash of both that it had before.
The Russian Command of Armies were also divided into the following.
- Army (2 Corps) (80K men)
- Corps (2 Divisions) (40k men)
- Divisions (4 Regiments) (20K men)
- Regiments (4 Battalions) (5K men)
- Battalion (5 Companies) (1000 men)
- Company (4 Platoons) (200 men)
- Platoon (5 Squads) (50 Men)
- Squads (10 Men)
Meanwhile the Russian Economy started foreign investment drives as the government also managed to invest into a road project in Estonia linking Tallinn and Narva motorway. This was accepted by the Estonian government very reluctantly however, Estonian President Lennart Mari gave a short speech regarding it. “Russian investment into our development shows that Russia is slowly growing out of its economic stagnation era. We must also follow in the footsteps of Russia and make our economy strong again. Estonian and Russian relations have always been shaky, however with these new investment plans, and plans for extension of Estonian assets in Russia, this government hopes that Estonia and Russia can have cordial relations once again and leave the stigma of the past where it belongs; in the past.”
Estonian President Lennart Mari.
Estonia, was largely now going on the road for rapprochement.
This however was met with negative response from Latvia and Lithuania as further Russian investment into their economies and development were curtailed. However despite this, Yavlinsky continued the growth of the Russian Economy. China’s economy which was growing to be a behemoth was quickly starting to overtake the Japanese economy. Yavlinsky, the economist that he was, saw the advantages of investing into the Chinese economy and the rising Red Dragon of Asia. On March 29th, the government of Russia announced that Russia was buying a portion of the Chinese industries in Manchuria (around 1/10) which were undergoing privatization under Xiaoping’s reforms in China.
On April 3rd the Chinese government approved of these developments and the Russian government officially bought portions of these industries the next week.
Meanwhile as India started to test Nuclear Weapons in Pokhran, bringing in worldwide condemnation, Russia was found in a quandary. They could either support or deny the Indians. However considering India was an enemy of China, Yavlinsky was hesitant to do much, and opted for a neutral position instead. Quietly though, Yavlinsky stated that “India is provoking Pakistan and China, incessantly raising tensions. If I had to choose between China and India, I would choose China.”
Indian Nuclear Test in Pokhran.
Yavlisnky had gone forward with a rapprochement program with China and this was clearly affecting India, as Indian ambassadors and diplomats were protesting against the move by Russia. The infamous Indian media known for their exaggeration spoke about how ‘Russia had betrayed India’ however, Yavlisnky saw more economic and military profiting for the Russians in China.
Meanwhile throughout the later stages of the month of April, Russia began to privatize the merged corporations and industries it had bought back in a weathered and organized manner. Some of the financial institutions would remain under partial state ownership, however most would be fully privatized later on.
Prompted by economic growth, and as the extension of the Trans-Siberian rail in its mid stages, Yavlinsky proposed another infrastructure in the country of Russia. Russia still held assets in Central Asia and the government of Russia wished to capitalize on the fact that Russia still controlled a good portion of Central Asia’s economy. Increased assets in Central Asia would do a world of good to the Russian economy beyond the Ural mountains.
Yavlinsky proposed a medium scale railway line between the Russian cities of Volgagrad, Omsk and the Central Asian Capitals to bolster trade relations between the nations and to increase economic productivity in all countries involved.
Kazakhstan who was facing a recession due to a slump in oil prices, agreed readily and so did the other Central Asian states, which all had fallen into a small scale recession.
Meanwhile the railway line to Yakutsk opened up as the final construction ended. As such the final ground works for the railway line to Anadyr were being finalized and slowly implemented as well. On May 28th in response to the Indian nuclear testing, Pakistan detonated their own nuclear device as well, which led to the USA, and other countries to raise sanctions on Pakistan. Russia, who was in no condition to block out a major regional power, declined to do so, however did raise warnings to the Pakistani ambassador and raised a few embargoes on Pakistan.
As the month of May ended, Yugoslavia and Russia led talks over the Kosovo War going on in Yugoslavia at the moment. Russia managed to arrange talks between Albania and Yugoslavia regarding Kosovo. However talks only erupted into more tense relations as the leaders and diplomats of Albania and Yugoslavia stooped to an arguing shouting match with each other rather than actually speaking with each other regarding the crisis in a well manner. It didn’t help that the Americans passed photos of showing solidarity with the KLA which made the KLA and the ethnic Albanians in Kosovo even more emboldened now that the World Superpower was backing them.
Yavlinsky later sent stated in a press meeting that “The situation in Kosovo is a very delicate situation. Both sides need to understand that without dialogue, the only way this ends is through needless bloodshed which had enveloped the Balkan Peninsula. Both sides must be open for talks for a peaceful resolution.”
However talks were fading and a return to violence was erupting in the Balkan Peninsula. Romania and Bulgaria both were very tense regarding the crisis and Russia was actively trying to barter talks, however to no avail.
World Tensions erupted further when the Guinea Bissau Civil War. However despite this, despite the dirty manner of the deal, Russia began to export weapons in the crisis and conflict. The World’s weapons exporters were clearly doing so, and to fall behind would have been economic fallacy. Meanwhile a major military decision was also made. The T-72 fleet of the Russian Military was to be sent to storage, whilst the entire Russian armored fleet would be made of T-80 and T-90 tanks. Russia currently had around 7000 T-72 tanks in service, and the Russian plan was to mass-produce the T-90 Tanks to supplement them. The T-90 tank had received international acclaim, and the tank was among the best in the world, and Russia wished to have a strong armored background, and having outdated weaponry didn’t seem to be a part of that. The Russian Ministry of Defense predicted that by 2005, the fleet of T-72’s could completely be stored and replaced by the T-90 tank fleet.
The T-90 Main Battle Tank.
On June 17th Yavlinsky announced that construction of the Central Asian Railway Line had begun between all states involved. On June 20th the government of Yavlinsky announced that unemployment had slumped in Russia by a huge margin, and the report was backed up by statements from the World Bank and IMF both of which stated the new economic period of Russia as the ‘Russian Economic Miracle’.
Currently Russia was also in the process of upgrading and making better commodity industries. The quality of commodities in Russia, which once had been so abysmal, with the arrival of proper privatization and proper marketing and competition started to grow and become of global standards and the Russian Commodity industry went through a huge boom in population during this time.
Russia was also as off this time trying to get in within the Industry 3.0 to 4.0 intermediate level with increased investments into robotics and digital industries.
On July 17th the government of Russia signed the bill creating the International Criminal Court. Yavlinsky was also starting to finally get rid of the vestiges of the Oligarchy as lesser oligarchs started to leave the nation to other nations and their assets were systematically seized by the government. The increased assets revenue meant that the Russian reserves grew as well. Increased production and exports also meant that the Russian foreign currency reserves were also increasing by a huge margin.
As the month of August came around the 720 Days Program were entering their final phases. The 720 Days program had been an astounding success on part of the Russians and the government was eagerly drawing up new plans as well for after the end of the program. The draft and proposal for a 4-Year Plan between 1998 and 2002 were being drafted as well.
The 4-year plan was focused on three portions of the Russian economy:-
- Infrastructure: This portion advocated for the increase in Russian infrastructural development and to make the Russian infrastructure better again.
- Commodity and Consumer goods: This portion of the plan included plans to make Russian consumer goods of extremely high quality and to make the Russian consumer good, one of the greatest industries of the nation.
- Diversification: Russia’s economy was heavily dependent on Oil and Gas. This portion planned to diversify the Russian economy by delving into the potential for Russia’s hydroelectricity, timber, tourism, agricultural, minerals, electronic, weaponry, medicinal, herbal, etc and other fields to diversify the Russian economy and increase production and exports.
- Agriculture: This portion of the Russian plan was to make Russia fully agriculturally independent by investments, upkeeps, and other methods such as mechanization, and proper agricultural incentives.
The 3-Year Plan bills were put to vote in the Duma on August 15th, and received the support of 306 of the votes. It was agreed to start implementation in November 1st 1998 to end on November 1st, 2001. The second 3-Year Plan was to start on 1st January 2002 and end in 1st January 2005.
Meanwhile throughout September, the last vestiges and parts of the 720 Days Program were implemented as the last portions of the industries were privatized. Throughout the entire fiasco of the previous administration, the Russian economy had grown steadfast and the country’s economy was booming. Russian investment and Russian FDI were growing as well and the 720 Days Program ended on 1st October 1998 with economic experts lauding the program to be one of the 20th centuries most successful economic directives and plans. Majority of the praise for the plan was kept at the feet of Yavlisnky and partially Zyuganov as well.
Meanwhile the final parts in the military restructuring were implemented in the Russian military as the few volunteer regiments fighting in Kosovo provided Russia with much needed military intelligence and military capability tests. Meanwhile Russian aerospace industries, in one of the very first return of the famed Russian Military Complex announced that MiG and Sukhoi were working together for a counter for the American Lockheed Martin F-22 stealth tactical bomber. The project was named SM Boggrom with the SM standing for Sukhoi and MiG. Boggrom in Russian meant God Thunder. Components of this aircraft and tests were already going on. This project announcement was met with a lot of mixed results. Economists praised it as a testament to how far the Russian economy was progressing enough to focus on their defense industry as well, however NATO countries and most specifically, America was upset that Russia was developing a counter to the vaunted F-22.
An animated depiction of the SM Boggrom.
However problems for competitors in the Russian Aerospace competition compounded when on October 28th Mig and Sukhoi announced that the two industries were going to merge to form the SM Aerospace Industries. The merger had been prompted by the Russian government and they owned around 10% of the total shares of the new SM industry. MiG and Sukhoi both held an equal share over the new industry, making it one of the most balanced mergers out there.
However, the competition was not without challenge. Tupolev announced that they were independently looking into making a new bomber that could do heavy damage into enemy lands. Experts suggested that this new project of Tupolev, named still not disclosed, would not be able to reach the levels of the B-22 bomber, however would be near to the level, as experts looked on at the amount of investment the share holders of Tupolev invested into this new project.
Meanwhile the Russian ministries finally showed some good news on the demographic front as reports stated that the rate of population decline was declining and stagnating a lot. The reports predicted that within half a decade, the population of Russia, if more effective policies like the ones put in place were implemented further, the Russian population could enter a period of slow growth again. Yavlinsky and Zyuganov passed the Second Demographic Act endorsing it and alcohol tariffs were raised to around 1.2% from the previous 0.5% percent to curtail alcoholism. The price for abortion were also raised slowly and gradually which made abortion slightly more expensive and less attractive to Russian couples.
On November 20th, the Zarya module, the first module of the International Space Station was launched by the Russian Cosmodrone in Kazakhstan beginning the construction of the International Space Station.
Launching of the Zarya Module into Space.
Meanwhile the first portion of the 3-Year Plan was beginning in its implementation as feasibility surveys were conducted, and Russian machines were beginning to invest into the Volga delta into creating an agricultural zone.
The Volga River tract in Russia.
The government of Russia was also increasingly coming to be concerned by the Kosovo War, as NATO involvement became increasingly likely. Meanwhile the Iraqi Disarmament Crisis was also starting to heat up and the Russian government was increasingly becoming agitated.
In good news for Russia at the end of the year, the Russian economy grew by 6.7%, a huge growth for the national economy.
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AN: One flashpoint already there now. One Russia 'won'. Spoiler alert: Russia doesn't 'win' the following 'flashpoints'.
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great timeline wanted to ask with the russian economy doing better did russia completed the construction of the Varyag
Economics I agree. Geopolitics....well let's just say it will be interesting.