Probably oil production country would be more rich with the rise of oil price because of this war, definitely curious if cuba will participate in this war and btw is the communist insurgents in Colombia going to have a part to play in this war
Russia Resurgent - A TL
- Thread starter Sarthak
- Start date
Russia will benefit and other countries like Iran will too. Maybe the recession will end in these countries as a result.
It’s a possibility but I don’t really familiar with economic, so I don’t really know if the recession will end faster or not, but i could see a possibility of Russia selling military equipment to Venezuela and Equador maybe directly maybe not directly like by using a proxy like Cuba, but this is still only my assumption
You need to consider that in TTL prior to the war in South America oil prices were already significantly higher than in OTL thanks to the Syria-Israel war, the Egyptian Civil War and the terrorist attacks in Saudia Arabia and Iran.
The recession will be worse in general (especially in the USA and in China) and a little better in the major Oil exporting countries like the Gulf States, Russia, Lybia, Iran, Iraq, Canada, Nigeria, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Turkmenistan and Ukraine also have a good amount of oil deposits that could be exploited to help their economy recover faster.
The airline industry will be the most penalized by higher oil prices while the Petroleum industry will make an incredible amount of money.
In the long run, things won't change that much because apart for some major war in the Middle East the 2010s oil glut will still happen like in OTL and bring the world price of oil below $40.
Some positive consequences will be more widespread use of electric cars and more funds allocated to Green and Nuclear Energy.
Also, I found a good guy to replace Letov with as one of Dugin's co-leaders in his NazBol gang:
en.wikipedia.org
Alexander Prokhanov - Wikipedia
Chapter 51: War.
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***
Latin Times of America:
April 25th, 2008
Colombia Reels From Heavy Defeats At the Hands of Venezuela and Ecuador.
***
Times of Arabia:
April 27th, 2008
UN Security Council Resolution Calls for the Immediate Cessation of Hostilities.
Chavez and Ecuador Refuse.
Both Ecuador and Venezuela have refused a resolution passed in the UN security council to stop the war. Ecuadorian president Correa has released a press statement stating that "For far too long, Colombia has used the excuse of FARC and its paramilitaries to invade and break Ecuadorian Sovereignty. I am afraid this is the last straw. Ecuador will fight, for it knows it is right." Meanwhile in Venezuela, President Chavez has refused to talk with any 'western' media, which in hindsight probably means everyone.
Ecuadorian President Correa has also stated that due to the overall economic disparity between Colombia and Ecuador, a simple state of conflict being declared would not be able to control the current situation in Ecuador and Colombia and that 'drastic measures' may be needed to convey the full weight of the crisis unfolding in the region.
The regional presidents of the area like that of Brazil and Peru have condemned the refusal of the countries to abide by the resolution passed in the Security Council.
***April 27th, 2008
UN Security Council Resolution Calls for the Immediate Cessation of Hostilities.
Chavez and Ecuador Refuse.
Both Ecuador and Venezuela have refused a resolution passed in the UN security council to stop the war. Ecuadorian president Correa has released a press statement stating that "For far too long, Colombia has used the excuse of FARC and its paramilitaries to invade and break Ecuadorian Sovereignty. I am afraid this is the last straw. Ecuador will fight, for it knows it is right." Meanwhile in Venezuela, President Chavez has refused to talk with any 'western' media, which in hindsight probably means everyone.
Ecuadorian President Correa has also stated that due to the overall economic disparity between Colombia and Ecuador, a simple state of conflict being declared would not be able to control the current situation in Ecuador and Colombia and that 'drastic measures' may be needed to convey the full weight of the crisis unfolding in the region.
The regional presidents of the area like that of Brazil and Peru have condemned the refusal of the countries to abide by the resolution passed in the Security Council.
The Daily Times:
April 28th, 2008
UK Prime Minister Tony Blair States that Any Spillover of the Andean War into Guyana would mean 'War with the UK'.
"Guyana is a country that is a part of the Commonwealth. Should Venezuela extend the war into Guyana, then it will be the duty of this United Kingdom to defend a sovereign Commonwealth nation." - Prime Minister Tony Blair, (Lab).
***April 28th, 2008
UK Prime Minister Tony Blair States that Any Spillover of the Andean War into Guyana would mean 'War with the UK'.
"Guyana is a country that is a part of the Commonwealth. Should Venezuela extend the war into Guyana, then it will be the duty of this United Kingdom to defend a sovereign Commonwealth nation." - Prime Minister Tony Blair, (Lab).
Times of Italy:
April 30th, 2008
End of the Post-WW2 Order? Ecuador Declares War on Colombia.
**April 30th, 2008
End of the Post-WW2 Order? Ecuador Declares War on Colombia.
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oil is of course going to play a big part in this war and recession
damn it wikibox template you have betrayed me............
Glad that you remembered to mention Guyana, since If Venezuela win the war it could be cocky Enough to try to annex Guyana or as you mentioned expand the war toward it, since Venezuela claimed that it is a part of their country, so really glad that Britain already put their foot down about protecting Guyana from invasion, definitely interested in seeing how different the Uk armed forces in this Tl,
At least for the moment, Colombia is on the back foot. IMAO I think that what will happen is that after some more advance by Ecuador and Venezuela the Colombians will manage to mobilize effectively and stabilize the frontlines thanks to their air superiority and their larger available manpower. However, the skies will be contested thanks to Ecuadorian and Venezuelan Su-30s and especially thanks to Venezuelan SAMs. Sooner or later Venezuela and Colombia will start some sort of "Tanker war"(especially in the vicinity of Lake Maracaibo). In the end, the US will send an ultimatum to Venezuela and Ecuador to end all hostilities with Colombia threatening sanctions, more support to Colombia or even airstrikes or a direct US military intervention in the conflict. Russia and China, in the end, will also support the motion since one does not want to lose a client state and the other wants oil prices down. The war will most likely end in Status quo antebellum with both sides paying reparations to the other. After the end of the war, Colombia will stick even closer to the US and expand significantly their armed forces, while Venezuela will do the same with Russia and maybe even allow a Russian military base on their territory.
thanks!
the UK has a far better military than otl. I will be doing a chapter in the future detailing the militaries of NATO, China, Japan, India and Australia.
slightly yes.
a good prediction.
true enough. Colombia has the numbers in the air but their air fleet is outdated.
granted a good possibility.
we'll see no spoilers!
Well...South America is turning into a shitshow potentially. Wonder if we'll see any border changes from this and will we see any developments in Central America soon? *cough*Federal Republic of Central America reunification?*cough*.
Not exactly crazy considering how freaked they would be of how close the conflict is to their borders, especially Panama.
Central America update will be nice though all the same.
Not exactly crazy considering how freaked they would be of how close the conflict is to their borders, especially Panama.
Central America update will be nice though all the same.
HM yes Central America and Latin America as. Whole will be interesting.