I agree with you on almost everything apart for the SU-35. It makes no sense to produce it because the SU-47 is already an upgraded version of the SU-27. Also, I think that would have been better for the Imperial Russian Navy to refit all four Kirov-class battlecruisers instead of bulding another two new ships. Then build the Leader-class destroyers starting in the mid-2010s(they pratcally are already heavy cruisers even if they are called destroyers)
Russia Resurgent - A TL
- Thread starter Sarthak
- Start date
I don't think a forward swept wing was a very practical idea for an operational aircraft. So Berkut should be out. I'd be putting my additional development money on Yak-43 actually and the single engine Yak stealth follow on.
So, @Sārthākā, any reason why Letov is an actual NazBol ITTL instead of just flirting with the ideology for a while? It kinda doesn't make sense why he'd randomly become a NazBol ITTL.
character profiles will be coming. Don't worry. They will be coming one by one slowly and steadily nough
Good to know. Hope you come up with a reasonable explanation for it.
I left the SU-47 in order to change the least possible amount of things from TTL. If I had to choose a plan to modernise the airforce I would have kept updating the old Su-27 while putting into service the Sukhoi Su-37 "Flanker-F" around 2002 and start the PAK-FA project around 1999-2000. Thanks to more funding and a combined effort by both Sukhoi and MiG (from this the proposed name SM-57 instead of Su-57) the first prototype would be ready around 2006 and the aircraft could become operational as early as 2010, even if I think that 2012 is a more reasonable date.
Then I would focus on building a stealthy and supersonic successor to the Su-25 and MiG-27 ground-attack aircraft to enter service in the 2020-2022 period; something like the fictional Yakolev Yak-49: a single-seat, twin-engine, all-weather stealth attack aircraft, designed to perform ground attack, aerial reconnaissance, and, to a limited degree, air defence missions. https://www.deviantart.com/sport16ing/art/Yak-49M-Buturlinovka-Air-Base-early-2016-795043124.
In the end, develop the PAK-DA and the MiG-41 and have them enter service in the late-2020s/early-2030s while upgrading the Tu-160 and Tu-22M fleets and slowly retiring the Tu-95s.
The Russians don't really need VTOL aircraft if they don't have helicopter carriers. Yes, they have two nuclear carriers but they will use only Su-33 and MiG-29K(simply to give a lifeline to MiG too, not to mention helping with exports) together with Ka-27 and several Ka-31 AEW helicopters.
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Chapter 45: The Economic Crisis
Chapter 45: The Economic Crisis
***
[This chapter will cover the developments of the entire effects of the 2007-2009 Global Recession in Russia, there may be some holes in the topic, mainly because I can’t give up some of the spoilers.]
***
www.wikipedia.com.
The Great Recession in the Czardom of Russia.
The Great Recession in Russia was a crisis during 2008–2009 in the Russian financial markets as well as an economic recession that was compounded by the plummeting price of Urals heavy crude oil, which lost more than 70% of its value due to loss in oil prices in the international and global economy. According to the World Bank, Russia's strong short-term and long term macroeconomic fundamentals as well as powerful regulations made it better prepared than many emerging economies to deal with the crisis, however stated that the Great Recession put an end to the massive growth rates the Russian nation had boasted, and instead made the Russian economy settle down to a mediocre economic growth rate.
In late 2007 during the onset of the crisis, Russian markets plummeted and more than $0.7 trillion had been wiped off the value of Russia's shares although Russian stocks rebounded in mid-2008 becoming the world's best performers, with the MICEX Index having more than doubled in value and regaining half its 2007-08 losses.
As the crisis progressed, Reuters and the Financial Times speculated that the crisis would be used to increase the Kremlin's control over key strategic assets in a reverse of the "loans for shares" sales of the 1990s, when the state sold off major assets to the oligarchs in return for loans In contrast to this earlier speculation, mainly in order to bring an end to the remainder of the oligarchs in Russia. Whilst oligarchs were becoming a rarity in Russia ever since Grigory Yavlinsky took power, some still persisted in rural areas of Russia. In September 2007 the Russian government announced plans to sell state energy and transport holdings in order to help plug the budget deficiency created by the crisis and to help improve the nation's rural aging infrastructure. The state earmarked about 5,500 enterprises for divestment and plans to sell shares in companies that are already publicly traded, including Rosneft, the country's biggest oil producer.
From July 2008 – January 2009, Russia's foreign exchange reserves (FXR) fell by $110 billion from their peak to $986 billion as the central bank adopted a policy of gradual but strong devaluation to combat the slow devaluation of the ruble. The ruble weakened 11% against the dollar from the onset of the crisis in August 2007 to January 2009. As the ruble stabilized in January the reserves began to steadily grow again throughout 2009, reaching a year-long high of $752 billion by year's-end.
Russia's economy emerged from recession in the third quarter of 2009 after two quarters of record positive growth GDP contracted by 4.9% for the whole of 2009, slightly less than the economic ministry's prediction of 5.7%. Experts expect Russia's economy will grow modestly in 2010, with estimates ranging from 3.1% by the Russian economic ministry to 2.5%, 3.6% and 4.9% by the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) respectively.
Background.
Russia is a major exporter of commodities such as oil and metals and civilian goods, so its economy had been hit hard, at least by Russian standards by the decline in the price of many commodities. The Russian stock market declined significantly. Foreign investors had pulled billions of dollars out of Russia on concerns over escalating geopolitical tensions with the West following the military conflict between Syria and Israel, and the Russian stake in said conflict. By September 2008, the RTS stock index plunged almost 24%. Russian involvement in the US subprime mortgage crisis contributed to the volatility in Russia's financial system, as Russian private investors in America, were forced to be bailed out by the Russian government, making the impact of the crisis in Russia deepen even further. The Russian Central Bank owned US$100 Billion of mortgage-backed securities of the two American mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that were taken over by the US government. This investment appeared to be bound for write-off.
According to the Wall Street Journal and Gazeta.ru, as the Russian market declined in September, a conspiracy theory circulated within Russian leadership that the U.S. government had incited American investors to withdraw their capital from Russia, in punishment for the intervention in Israel and Syria. Though the Russian government themselves put an end to this conspiracy theory later on.
Stock Markets
On 24 July 2008, Mechel 's stock plunged by almost 38 percent after Russia's Prime Minister criticized its CEO Igor Zyuzin, and accused the company of selling resources to Russia at higher prices than those charged to foreign countries. This was partially true as a subsequent private inquiry made by private authorities as well as the IMF later discerned that the Mechel was involved in selling resources at higher prices to the Russian government due to the Russian government’s economic boom. On the following day, Mechel issued a contrite statement promising full cooperation with federal authorities while share values rebounded by nearly 15 percent. On July presidential aide Arkady Dvorkovich then sought to restore calm, declaring that all parties would "act in a civilized way," and confirming that Mechel was cooperating with antitrust authorities. Later on, the Eurasian Stock Market was given a stimulus package of $150 million by the Russian government which most probably, according to analysts, saved the economies of the Eurasian Union from a contracting depression, rather than a stagnating depression that they now faced.
On 16 September Russia's most liquid stock exchange MICEX and the dollar-denominated RTS were suspended trade for one hour after the worst one-day fall in 10 years as the Finance Minister accepted that the Russian government was facing a depression. Next day, trading was suspended for the second day in succession on Russia's two main stock exchanges (MICEX and RTS) after shares fell dramatically, forcing the Federal Financial Markets Service to intervene.
The crisis continued on 18 September, as trading was suspended for the third day in succession on Russia's two main stock exchanges amidst fear of financial degradation. Deputy Finance Minister Pyotr Kazakevich asserted that "Russia is facing its worst stock market decline in a decade, we have lost our economic miracle, even though the economy is not contracting.".
On 6 October the MICEX and RTS crashed by 6.6% and 8.1% respectively. The losses forced the Federal Financial Markets Service to suspend the stocks 1 time. Trading on both exchanges was suspended on the next day; Russian companies have augmented in price at London LSE. On 8 October the MICEX and RTS plunged 3.4% and 4.3% respectively, trading on the markets was halted until 10 October, respectively. However, on 9 October MICEX trading resumed ahead of schedule, and the stock market rose 14.7%.
Money Markets
The crisis in money markets was imminent since spring, when Central Bank of Russia warned the public of a gradual reduction in bank lending due to unfolding world liquidity crisis. However, the regulator preferred to combat inflation, raising the refinancing rate and bank reserve contributions. On September hike in reserve rate alone withdrew nearly 56 billion rubles from the money market.. The raise coincided with a seasonal peak in tax payments and left the banking system in a worse state of liquidity than ever seen before in Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union. A subsequent drop in ruble-to-dollar exchange rate and dollar-denominated prices of Russian corporate securities forced investors to crowd out, before the Russian government was able to use foreign reserve funds to inject a stimulus that made the exchange rate stable again, making investments in the nation stable again.
Money market crunch passed its first lowest mark 15–17 September. 17 September the government lent the country's three biggest banks, Sberbank, VTB Bank and Gazprombank, 500 billion rubles for at least three months to boost liquidity, the Central Bank lowered the reserve requirement. This was followed 24 September by Central Bank loans to keep the current accounts afloat and prevent a bank run. The regulators also raised the cap for deposit insurance from 400 to 700 thousand roubles (equivalent to 25 thousand dollars). These actions served their short-term purpose and the Russian government then passed legislations that made the regulations of the economy stricter, but maintain proper investment standards, which allowed the economy to become slowly revitalized.
17 November MosPrime interbank interest rate on rouble loans reached a record high of 12.67%, indicating another semi-shortage of liquid funds as the bank clients transferred funds overseas or paid taxes due. However soon enough the interest rate managed to retreat back to safe numbers after the aforementioned regulations came into effect within the Russian economy.
Conclusion
The effect of the great depression in Russia was of course massive. In 1997, the country showed an economic growth rate of 11%, 10.6% in 1998, 12.1% in 1999, 11% in 2000, 11.3% in 2001, 11.8% in 2002, 11.2% in 2003, 12.4% in 2004, 12.2% in 2005, 12% last year, maintaining one of the highest rates of economic growth, if not the highest rate of economic growth, only matched by China, and to some extents, Ukraine and Kazakhstan behind them. This dropped to mediocre levels. The Russian economy would not contract, as the Russian regulations and stimulus made that impossible, however the growth rate levels of the Russian economy fell. In 2010, the Russian economy grew by 4.9%, 5.7% in 2011, 5.2% in 2012, 5.9% in 2013, 6.1% in 2014, 7.2% in 2015, 6.4% in 2016, 6.7% in 2017 and 7% last year in 2018. All medium rates of economic growth and sometimes slightly above average.
Inflation reached around 13% at their highest and unemployment reached 9.7% at its height during the crisis. After that they calmed down to around 6% inflation in 2010, and 3.1% unemployment in 2009. The Russian economy recovered, however it would not be able to maintain its extremely impressive rate of growth than previous to the crisis.
***
***
[This chapter will cover the developments of the entire effects of the 2007-2009 Global Recession in Russia, there may be some holes in the topic, mainly because I can’t give up some of the spoilers.]
***
www.wikipedia.com.
The Great Recession in the Czardom of Russia.
The Great Recession in Russia was a crisis during 2008–2009 in the Russian financial markets as well as an economic recession that was compounded by the plummeting price of Urals heavy crude oil, which lost more than 70% of its value due to loss in oil prices in the international and global economy. According to the World Bank, Russia's strong short-term and long term macroeconomic fundamentals as well as powerful regulations made it better prepared than many emerging economies to deal with the crisis, however stated that the Great Recession put an end to the massive growth rates the Russian nation had boasted, and instead made the Russian economy settle down to a mediocre economic growth rate.
In late 2007 during the onset of the crisis, Russian markets plummeted and more than $0.7 trillion had been wiped off the value of Russia's shares although Russian stocks rebounded in mid-2008 becoming the world's best performers, with the MICEX Index having more than doubled in value and regaining half its 2007-08 losses.
As the crisis progressed, Reuters and the Financial Times speculated that the crisis would be used to increase the Kremlin's control over key strategic assets in a reverse of the "loans for shares" sales of the 1990s, when the state sold off major assets to the oligarchs in return for loans In contrast to this earlier speculation, mainly in order to bring an end to the remainder of the oligarchs in Russia. Whilst oligarchs were becoming a rarity in Russia ever since Grigory Yavlinsky took power, some still persisted in rural areas of Russia. In September 2007 the Russian government announced plans to sell state energy and transport holdings in order to help plug the budget deficiency created by the crisis and to help improve the nation's rural aging infrastructure. The state earmarked about 5,500 enterprises for divestment and plans to sell shares in companies that are already publicly traded, including Rosneft, the country's biggest oil producer.
From July 2008 – January 2009, Russia's foreign exchange reserves (FXR) fell by $110 billion from their peak to $986 billion as the central bank adopted a policy of gradual but strong devaluation to combat the slow devaluation of the ruble. The ruble weakened 11% against the dollar from the onset of the crisis in August 2007 to January 2009. As the ruble stabilized in January the reserves began to steadily grow again throughout 2009, reaching a year-long high of $752 billion by year's-end.
Russia's economy emerged from recession in the third quarter of 2009 after two quarters of record positive growth GDP contracted by 4.9% for the whole of 2009, slightly less than the economic ministry's prediction of 5.7%. Experts expect Russia's economy will grow modestly in 2010, with estimates ranging from 3.1% by the Russian economic ministry to 2.5%, 3.6% and 4.9% by the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) respectively.
Background.
Russia is a major exporter of commodities such as oil and metals and civilian goods, so its economy had been hit hard, at least by Russian standards by the decline in the price of many commodities. The Russian stock market declined significantly. Foreign investors had pulled billions of dollars out of Russia on concerns over escalating geopolitical tensions with the West following the military conflict between Syria and Israel, and the Russian stake in said conflict. By September 2008, the RTS stock index plunged almost 24%. Russian involvement in the US subprime mortgage crisis contributed to the volatility in Russia's financial system, as Russian private investors in America, were forced to be bailed out by the Russian government, making the impact of the crisis in Russia deepen even further. The Russian Central Bank owned US$100 Billion of mortgage-backed securities of the two American mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that were taken over by the US government. This investment appeared to be bound for write-off.
According to the Wall Street Journal and Gazeta.ru, as the Russian market declined in September, a conspiracy theory circulated within Russian leadership that the U.S. government had incited American investors to withdraw their capital from Russia, in punishment for the intervention in Israel and Syria. Though the Russian government themselves put an end to this conspiracy theory later on.
Stock Markets
On 24 July 2008, Mechel 's stock plunged by almost 38 percent after Russia's Prime Minister criticized its CEO Igor Zyuzin, and accused the company of selling resources to Russia at higher prices than those charged to foreign countries. This was partially true as a subsequent private inquiry made by private authorities as well as the IMF later discerned that the Mechel was involved in selling resources at higher prices to the Russian government due to the Russian government’s economic boom. On the following day, Mechel issued a contrite statement promising full cooperation with federal authorities while share values rebounded by nearly 15 percent. On July presidential aide Arkady Dvorkovich then sought to restore calm, declaring that all parties would "act in a civilized way," and confirming that Mechel was cooperating with antitrust authorities. Later on, the Eurasian Stock Market was given a stimulus package of $150 million by the Russian government which most probably, according to analysts, saved the economies of the Eurasian Union from a contracting depression, rather than a stagnating depression that they now faced.
On 16 September Russia's most liquid stock exchange MICEX and the dollar-denominated RTS were suspended trade for one hour after the worst one-day fall in 10 years as the Finance Minister accepted that the Russian government was facing a depression. Next day, trading was suspended for the second day in succession on Russia's two main stock exchanges (MICEX and RTS) after shares fell dramatically, forcing the Federal Financial Markets Service to intervene.
The crisis continued on 18 September, as trading was suspended for the third day in succession on Russia's two main stock exchanges amidst fear of financial degradation. Deputy Finance Minister Pyotr Kazakevich asserted that "Russia is facing its worst stock market decline in a decade, we have lost our economic miracle, even though the economy is not contracting.".
On 6 October the MICEX and RTS crashed by 6.6% and 8.1% respectively. The losses forced the Federal Financial Markets Service to suspend the stocks 1 time. Trading on both exchanges was suspended on the next day; Russian companies have augmented in price at London LSE. On 8 October the MICEX and RTS plunged 3.4% and 4.3% respectively, trading on the markets was halted until 10 October, respectively. However, on 9 October MICEX trading resumed ahead of schedule, and the stock market rose 14.7%.
Money Markets
The crisis in money markets was imminent since spring, when Central Bank of Russia warned the public of a gradual reduction in bank lending due to unfolding world liquidity crisis. However, the regulator preferred to combat inflation, raising the refinancing rate and bank reserve contributions. On September hike in reserve rate alone withdrew nearly 56 billion rubles from the money market.. The raise coincided with a seasonal peak in tax payments and left the banking system in a worse state of liquidity than ever seen before in Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union. A subsequent drop in ruble-to-dollar exchange rate and dollar-denominated prices of Russian corporate securities forced investors to crowd out, before the Russian government was able to use foreign reserve funds to inject a stimulus that made the exchange rate stable again, making investments in the nation stable again.
Money market crunch passed its first lowest mark 15–17 September. 17 September the government lent the country's three biggest banks, Sberbank, VTB Bank and Gazprombank, 500 billion rubles for at least three months to boost liquidity, the Central Bank lowered the reserve requirement. This was followed 24 September by Central Bank loans to keep the current accounts afloat and prevent a bank run. The regulators also raised the cap for deposit insurance from 400 to 700 thousand roubles (equivalent to 25 thousand dollars). These actions served their short-term purpose and the Russian government then passed legislations that made the regulations of the economy stricter, but maintain proper investment standards, which allowed the economy to become slowly revitalized.
17 November MosPrime interbank interest rate on rouble loans reached a record high of 12.67%, indicating another semi-shortage of liquid funds as the bank clients transferred funds overseas or paid taxes due. However soon enough the interest rate managed to retreat back to safe numbers after the aforementioned regulations came into effect within the Russian economy.
Conclusion
The effect of the great depression in Russia was of course massive. In 1997, the country showed an economic growth rate of 11%, 10.6% in 1998, 12.1% in 1999, 11% in 2000, 11.3% in 2001, 11.8% in 2002, 11.2% in 2003, 12.4% in 2004, 12.2% in 2005, 12% last year, maintaining one of the highest rates of economic growth, if not the highest rate of economic growth, only matched by China, and to some extents, Ukraine and Kazakhstan behind them. This dropped to mediocre levels. The Russian economy would not contract, as the Russian regulations and stimulus made that impossible, however the growth rate levels of the Russian economy fell. In 2010, the Russian economy grew by 4.9%, 5.7% in 2011, 5.2% in 2012, 5.9% in 2013, 6.1% in 2014, 7.2% in 2015, 6.4% in 2016, 6.7% in 2017 and 7% last year in 2018. All medium rates of economic growth and sometimes slightly above average.
Inflation reached around 13% at their highest and unemployment reached 9.7% at its height during the crisis. After that they calmed down to around 6% inflation in 2010, and 3.1% unemployment in 2009. The Russian economy recovered, however it would not be able to maintain its extremely impressive rate of growth than previous to the crisis.
***
What about Greece, th EU and the rest of the world?
We will see them in next updates, right?
We will see them in next updates, right?
Say, how this recession in Russia compared to OTL?
I predict political ramifications as of result of recessions, and OTL is no different.
I predict political ramifications as of result of recessions, and OTL is no different.
Technically speaking it wasn't the Great Recession that really hurt the Russian economy in OTL, but the 2010s oil glut and the restriction of trade between Russia and the West after the Russian takeover of Crimea in 2014.
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Yeah, but otl the Russian economy contracted. Ittl the Russian economy continues to grow even though it has stagnated somewhat.