Is this TL a good start?

  • Yes

    Votes: 8 66.7%
  • No

    Votes: 1 8.3%
  • Maybe

    Votes: 3 25.0%
  • Perhaps?

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    12
  • Poll closed .
Chapter 39: Pyrrhus of Israel.
Chapter 39: Pyrrhus of Israel.

***

www.bbc.com

ISRAEL ANNOUNCES MARTIAL LAW AS SYRIANS PUSH IN GOLAN HEIGHTS and RUSSIA ISSUES ULTIMATUM

May 22nd, 2007

For the first time in a good amount of time, the Israeli government has announced martial law in response to the recent Golan Heights Offensive. The Syrian forces in Damascus had been grouped, and spearheaded by Syrian general Ali Abdullah Ayyoub, the Syrians have manage to break the Israeli forward positions and have pushed the Israelis back in the Golan heights. The massive use of combined arms by the Syrians in coordination with artillery exchanges, aerial warfare, tanks, shock damage and infantry attacks have managed to disgruntle the Israeli defenders.

Nonetheless, the Great Powers till now have refused to aid Israel on the grounds that the Golan Heights is ‘disputed territory’ and not formally Israeli. Another fact also remains is that the Golan Heights in majority recognized as Syrian territory occupied by the Israelis for the past thirty or so years. The Israeli provocation which led to this war, has also not endeared Israel to the United Nations who are seeing this new between Israel and the coalition of Syria, Lebanon and Palestine as an aftereffect of the ongoing Egyptian Civil War.


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The Golan Heights.

According to our sources on the ground, the Syrians face casualties of around 700 killed in their recent offensive and an unknown number dead. Whilst on the other hand the Israelis have lost smaller amounts of troops, some 380 killed, and 500 wounded, the Israelis have been pushed back in the Golan Heights as the Syrians liberate multiple villages and town in the Heights being welcomed by the Syrian and Circassian population whilst being shunned by the Jewish population.

The Russian government has announced that they shall send observers to Lebanon and Syria to insure that no hate crimes and war crimes will be conducted by the soldiers of both nations, as somewhat understandably, both countries have a lot of grief to pour onto Israel, which could take a dark turn if the mind wanders. The Russian government has also however sent an ultimatum to Israel, with tacit support from China in the Security Council demanding the following:-

  • State freely on the fact whether or not Israel has nuclear weapons.
  • If Israel does have nuclear weapons, what is the doctrine of the military on the nuclear weapons?
  • If Israel does have nuclear weapons, sign the Treaty of Non-Proliferation.
The United States has condemned this ultimatum, however the Russian government has stated that this ultimatum will expire on the 31st of May, and until when if Israel does not answer, then the Russian government, and the entirety of CSTO and the Eurasian Union will be embargoing Israel. This is an unprecedented move from the Russians and the members of the CSTO, however the Russian government, aided by the CSTO and the Eurasian Union has resolutely stated that these measures are necessary.

We are still in the dark. The Levant and the Middle East have been sparks for multiple conflicts in the past seventy years, and with another crisis unfolding before our eyes, we must take precaution. One mistake, and the entire region can go up in nuclear hellfire, and that is something we cannot, as a whole society afford. If Israel has nuclear weapons, then she must come to terms with the responsibilities of having nuclear weapons, or else she doesn’t deserve them. Her keeping it a secret makes the lives of 120 million in the region hazardous, and the economic, political, diplomatic, military and geopolitical fallout of something going off in the region would be absolutely enormous, and something the world will never recover from.” – Chancellor Grigory Yavlinsky on the issue.

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Yavlinsky announcing the ultimatum.

Many countries from around the globe have shown some similarities in their statements as well. The Swedish government in particular has called for calm in the region, and has asked the Israeli government to submit to the Russian ultimatum, and has stated that the ambiguity regarding nuclear weapons would be the worst ambiguity in history. The Chinese government has supported the Russian position, and the Pakistani government has also backed the Russians. The Indian government has declared itself neutral on the issue, however has called for a ceasefire and calm in the region. The Japanese government, surprisingly has supported the Russian ultimatum, stating that the lives of millions were at stake due to this war and the Israeli policy of nuclear ambiguity.

Israel itself has a lot to lose should the CSTO and the Eurasian Union embargo Israel. Israel depends on the CSTO for around 41% of their imports, and 37% of their export markets, and losing access to all of these lucrative markets would spell a massive recession in Israel, and that is something that many in Israel itself are not willing to endure as the tensions rise.

Meanwhile in the north, the Lebanese have not made any such gains as their Syrian counterparts, however the Lebanese armed forces have managed to tie down several thousands of Israeli troops, and the small Lebanese navy is managing to use gunboats to conduct hit and run tactics on Israeli naval assets in the region in tandem with the Syrian naval assets in the region.

In the east, the Iranian government has announced that ‘volunteer regiments’ will be sent to Syria to fight against Israel. This has been condemned by Saudi Arabia, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and multiple smaller Arab states, however for the time being, no one is really challenging the decision. Even though sending volunteer troops to a conflict is an outdated move, it isn’t exactly illegal, and something that at least on paper, can be done.

***

www.africantimes.com

Somalia Announces New Offensive alongside Britain and Russia

May 26th, 2007

As tensions continue to rocket in the middle east, with Israel fighting against the Syrians and Lebanese, the Somali government has announced that their forces will now concentrate on the north, which is still in majority held by warlords and jihadists. The British and Russians armed forces present in the area will aid the Somalis in a massive offensive into the north which will include around 40,000 Somalian troops, some 2000 Russian troops, and some 2,000 British troops as well. This offensive which has been named, the May Offensive, has already started, and has been touted to be the offensive which will end the war in Somalia once and for all. The British government and Russian government have both announced that they will be aiding the Somalian government in the offensive, and will be conducting special operations in the area.

The Royal Navy and the Imperial Russian Navy in the area have both announced that they will be conducting massive anti-piracy activities in the region to take care of the pirates that have emerged of the coast of Somalia as a result of the Somalian war.

The British government, and Prime Minister Tony Blair have stated that a second series of negotiations with Russia and Somalia will take place this time in Naples with the third party being Italy in the proceedings to decide the fate of Somalia in the future after the war.

The British position is firmly backing the independence of Somaliland after the war, which is something that Russia has until recently been unwilling to consider. However with all sides in Somalia and the Horn of Africa being war weary and tired of the bloodshed, the Russian government has changed its tunes. The Somalian government, and the Ethiopian government have agreed to the Addis Ababa Accords signed last week between the international recognized federal government of Somalia, and Ethiopia which states the following points:-

  • A referendum to be held in the region regarding independence.
  • Should the referendum pass on the notion of independence, then the two statelets to form a ‘two nations, single bloc’ style of governance in which there will be a free border between the nations, and a shared market between the two.
  • The Somalian government will not object to any Somaliland attempt to join the Commonwealth of Nations if Somaliland votes to become independent.
These accords have been widely acknowledged as a lasting solution in the region, and the Somalian government has backed this accord. The Russian and British governments will be discussing the final issues regarding the accords in Naples next week, in particular, one topic that has come up is Somaliland’s perspective future in the newly active Commonwealth of Nations.

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A Royal Navy Frigate active in the Red Sea attacking Somali pirates.

***

www.spacenews.com

Russia Announces New Class of Space Launch Vehicles in Development.

May 30th, 2007

Whilst the world keeps its eyes glued on the now almost expired Russian ultimatum to Israel, we have our eyes glued to one news that has been issued by the Russian Ministry of Aerospace.

The Russian government, and the Russian Space Agency alongside the Eurasian Space Agency (ESA) has announced that they are working on a new type of space launch vehicles, partly because of the fact that most of their equipment are old soviet equipment, and also partially because of the newly budding rivalry between Russia and the NASA. This new type of space launch vehicle is being called the Angara Rocket Family.

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Design of the Angara Rocket Family.

The Angara Rocket Family is a family of space launch vehicles being developed by the Moscow based Khrunichev Royal State Research and Production Space Center. The rockets are to put between 3,800 and 24,500 KG into the low Earth Orbit, and are intended along with the Soyuz-2 variants, to replace several existing launch vehicles. The estimated cost of this family of rockets will be between $90 million to $105 million in cost.

The specifics of this new type or space launch vehicles are:-

  • Height: 42.7 meters to 64 meters (depends on variant)
  • Width: 2.9 meters to 8.86 meters (depends on variant)
  • Mass: 171,500 kg to 790,000 kg (depends on variant)
  • Stages: 2-3
  • Capacity Payload to LEO mass: 3,800 kg to 24,500 kg
  • Capacity Payload to GTO mass: 5,400 kg to 7,500 kg
  • Associated Rockets: Naro-1
  • Boosters (A5) – URM 1
    • No. of Boosters: 4
    • Engines: 1 RD-191
    • Thrust: 1,920 kN at sea level
    • Total Thrust: 7,680 kN at sea level
    • Specific Impulse: 310.7 seconds at sea level
    • Burn time: 214 seconds
    • Fuel: RP-1/LOX
  • First Stage – URM 1
    • Engines: 1 RD-191
    • Thrust: 1,920 kN at sea level
    • Specific Impulse: 310.7 seconds at sea level
    • Burn Time: 214 seconds to 325 seconds
    • Fuel: RP-1/LOX
  • Second Stage: URM-2
    • Engines: 1 RD-0124A
    • Thrust: 294.3 kN at sea level
    • Specific Impulse: 359 seconds at sea level
    • Burn Time: 424 seconds
    • Fuel: RP-1/LOX
  • Third Stage (A5) – Briz M
    • Engines: 1 S5.98M
    • Thrust: 19.6 kN at sea level
    • Specific Impulse: 325 seconds at sea level
    • Burn time: 3000 seconds
    • Fuel: N2O4/UDMH
  • Third Stage (A5) – KVTK
    • Engines: 1 RD-0146D
    • Thrust: 68.6 kN at sea level
    • Specific Impulse: 463 seconds at sea level
    • Burn time: 1,350 seconds
    • Fuel: LH2/LOX
The testing and production of the Universal Rocket Modules and the Briz-M upper stages will take place at the Krunichev subsidiary, Production Corporation Polyot in Omsk. The government has reportedly already funneled $1 billion in Angara Production lines. Design and testing of the RD-191 engine was done by NPO Energomash while its mass production will take place at the company Proton-PM in Perm.

***

www.bbc.com

Israel Accedes! Announces Ceasefire in the region!

June 1st, 2007

As the Syrians manage to liberate the Golan Heights, and using Lebanese soil, Hezbollah continues to attack Israeli civilian targets, the Israeli government has announced that they have accepted the Russian ultimatum, and has reached a ceasefire agreement with Syria and Lebanon.

With majority of the Golan Heights under Syrian control having been liberated by the Syrians ending their 40 years long occupation on part of Israel, the government of Israel has finally sent a memorandum to the international community called the ‘Papers of Haifa’.

The Papers of Haifa have acceded to the Russian ultimatum, and Israel has stated that they do infact have nuclear weapons, with 140 warheads in total with 85 being in active service. The mode of transportation of these nuclear warheads are via land based ICBMs, submarine launched ballistic missiles, and airplane bomber missiles. The Israeli government has finally dropped its nuclear ambiguity policy in the face of the ultimatum and international condemnation, as well as Syrian advances.

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An Israeli Nuclear weapon.

The United Nations has announced that they shall send observers from the United Nation’s subsidiary agencies to comprehensively list and tabulate the Israeli military capability in regards with nuclear weapons. The Israeli government has also reluctantly agreed to sign the Treaty of Non-Proliferation.

In recent days, the Israeli government has come under much attack from many in the international community for keeping their nuclear power under wraps, and some, mostly from the Arabs and the Muslims, have even compared it to the North Korean Nuclear Program, stoking massive anti-Muslim riots in Tel Aliv itself. However what is for the first time, the Israeli military has been defeated in battle.

Not quite so straightforward as that, however it is reality.

The Syrian armed forces have been undergoing ten years of modernization dating back to 1996 when the Syrians bought several Russian weapons, and accepted Russian supervision in the modernization process. The Lebanese armed forces themselves are already pretty modern and advanced, however small in numerical amounts, thus not being able to push their advantage. Lebanon was defeated in this war by the Israelis during the Battle of Adamit and the Battle of Shlomit, destroying the Lebanese capability of offensive actions. However in comparison to the Syrian theatre of war, the Syrians defeated the Israelis during the Battle of Odem and the Battle of Eliad. However as the Syrians tried to enter Israel proper itself, the Israelis handed a gross defeat to the Syrians at the Battle of Dafna, which saw the Syrians retreat back into the Golan Heights.

Nonetheless, the Golan heights have been liberated by the Syrians, with only a small strip of land, in Had Nes, and Beit Tsaida Zachi remaining under Israeli occupation. The recent ceasefire has stopped all fighting, however both sides of the frontlines look at each other warily.

The final agreements regarding peace in the region will be taking place in Benghazi, where the Libyan government has welcomed all sides for negotiations, which somewhat promise to be humiliating for the Israelis.

***

www.bbc.com

Peace of Benghazi signed!

June 6th, 2007

After five days of massive amounts of protests, negotiations, and compromises, the Israeli government, and the Syrian government alongside the Lebanese government have signed a peace in their recent short war. This short war saw the Israelis defeated in the Golan Heights, however managing to come out on top in Israeli proper. The war has been costly for all sides, with the Israeli nation loosing 2761 killed, and over 8000 wounded, and the Syrian nation has lost some 4523 killed, and some 10,000 wounded. The Lebanese nation has lost some 3000 killed and 6000 wounded in the fighting. Numbers from Hezbollah and Palestine are not available. The material losses of this war has also been massive. The Israeli government has lost some $3 billion in investments and local economies, and the Syrian government has had to partially default on its loans. The Lebanese nation has come out in the best condition economically from this war.

The peace of Benghazi outlines the following:-

  • The Syrian government to retake control over the majority of the Golan Heights.
  • The Israeli government to keep the part of the Golan Heights that are still under occupation by Israeli armed forces.
  • The Lebanese government to receive $500 million from the Israeli government as reparations.
  • All sides to agree to a population transfer of displaced peoples from the war.
  • All sides to loan and fund displaced economic investments.
This peace was mostly brokered by Libya, France and the UK, with both Russia and America eying each other in distrust throughout the entire ordeal. Many have called Syria and Lebanon Russian proxies during this fight and the Israelis have been called American proxies in this fight. Many call this a new proxy war, and the war, now dubbed the ‘May War’ is being labelled as a proxy war. Both America and Russia have disputed this label however.

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Golan Heights left from the red line have been ceded back to Syria.

As the short two week war comes to an end, in a partial and pyrrhic victory for the Arabs, the outreaches of this ordeal will be far reaching, and only the future will tell us, what waits in the future as a consequence of this.

***

Vignette #2: Alexander Smirnov.

Alexander Smirnov wasn’t exactly the most stellar spy or member of the FSB. He was a Belarusian and had joined the FSB in 2003 after years of training, yet his capabilities, which were just barely passable enough to join the FSB weren’t looked at comfortably by the higher ups in the government. His fighting was average, stealth was fine, and well average in all other areas. He didn’t really stand out much.

However, as Alexander deflected a kick from the amierykanski he groaned in slight pain and flipped over behind and skid across the marble floor in this small outpost in Anchorage. The small deck of papers inside Alexander’s coat hung heavily on him as Alexander looked around him to see anyway to get out and kill the American agent in front of him.

Thank god, only that single agent had seen him steal the data, or else Alexander would have been in deep trouble, and he knew it, he would have to take recourse training after he returned to Russia.

The American snarled at him pushing his blonde hair back and raised his fist and attacked. Alexander caught the fist with his left hand and twisted it, making the man groan in pain, as Alexander kicked the man in the stomach with his right knee, landing a direct blow. The American tumbled back and moaned in pain slowly getting back up.

Well, about that Alexander wasn’t going to give up this moment of opportunity. He slowly aided his leg and smacked the American’s face with a kick sending him tumbling back. As the American groaned out in greater pain, Alexander took out his knife, and sat atop the American.

“Look man.” Alexander stated in English accompanied with a thick Russian accent. “This isn’t personal. But what can you do when your countries are rivals?”

And his knife slashed down and cut the man’s throat. The man slumped immediately dead. Alexander breathed a sigh of relief and looked to the sides. Thank god they were next to the forest. It would be easy to drag the man into the foliage and let him rot there with the bears coming to him to have breakfast or lunch, or dinner, or whatever.

And besides, Alexander needed to hurry. He had American military secrets on which he had got his hands on to pass on to the Russian government. Vladivostok, here did Alexander come!

***
 
Interesting update. In my opinion, the Syrian Civil War will more than likely be butterflied away thanks to the rally around the flag effect. Benjamin Netanyahu would also be likely to win the 2009 Israeli elections and be more militaristic than in OTL.
Just one more question: in this TL Egypt is a "Libia" or "Syrian" situation from OTL?
 
This will bolster Syria's position in the Middle East- I wonder if Russia will insist on democratic reforms? Or is that asking too much ITTL?

Israel admitting it has nukes does both help and hurt, as they still have the intimidation factor, but with the number known it is obvious they cannot glass the whole M/E.

Wonder how losing the Golen Heights helps/hinders the Palestinians?

Also can Syria dick with Israel's water supply?
 
A Pyrrhic victory! Thoughts?
I expect the Israeli government will be destabilized and the IDF will begin reforming and reviewing its performance. Heads may roll in the various intelligence and military communities. The Iraqis, Saudis and other states may also upgrade their intelligence and military following the success of the Syrians/Lebanese.
 
Interesting update. In my opinion, the Syrian Civil War will more than likely be butterflied away thanks to the rally around the flag effect. Benjamin Netanyahu would also be likely to win the 2009 Israeli elections and be more militaristic than in OTL.
Just one more question: in this TL Egypt is a "Libia" or "Syrian" situation from OTL?
Like a Syria like situation really.
 
This will bolster Syria's position in the Middle East- I wonder if Russia will insist on democratic reforms? Or is that asking too much ITTL?

Israel admitting it has nukes does both help and hurt, as they still have the intimidation factor, but with the number known it is obvious they cannot glass the whole M/E.

Wonder how losing the Golen Heights helps/hinders the Palestinians?

Also can Syria dick with Israel's water supply?
Syria in the end will be interesting for the future. It's going to become more like an Authoritarian democracy bit as a totalitarian authoritarian like too though.
 
I expect the Israeli government will be destabilized and the IDF will begin reforming and reviewing its performance. Heads may roll in the various intelligence and military communities. The Iraqis, Saudis and other states may also upgrade their intelligence and military following the success of the Syrians/Lebanese.
Indeed. Good prediction.
 
Wonder if Iraq still ends up in a more screwed up state here, wonder if Syria, with Russian will try and use the chance to bring back the proposal to unify the two countries that almost happened in 1979 before Saddam put the breaks on that when he rose into power. Don't know if it'll bring order back to the Middle East for removing the borders left by the Allied Powers after the WWI might win the Russians much goodwill from the people in the area. Then again that's my own thoughts...
 
Wonder if Iraq still ends up in a more screwed up state here, wonder if Syria, with Russian will try and use the chance to bring back the proposal to unify the two countries that almost happened in 1979 before Saddam put the breaks on that when he rose into power. Don't know if it'll bring order back to the Middle East for removing the borders left by the Allied Powers after the WWI might win the Russians much goodwill from the people in the area. Then again that's my own thoughts...
Middle East will be interesting indeed!
 
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