Russia recovering from the collapse and in the WW1 peace negotiations?

I was browsing through the pages of this forum, and in one of them I noticed some small discussion about the unexplored AH possibility that Russia could have recovered from the Soviet coup attempt and taken part in the peace treaty of Versailles.

So, I have a few questions regarding this possibility:

1. Is it completely ASB?

2. If it is possible, then at what point would the Whites regain power?

3. If the above is more unlikely, then what could have prevented the revolution? Lenin gets killed is one thing, anything else?

4. What impact would a recovering Russia bring to the peace negotiations? I would think that the creation of Poland, as USA and other Allies wanted, will be impossible. What else?

5. My uses for this idea include a strong Russia at the peace table, but it later (early 1920s?) collapses due to a second revolution attempt (and Poland eventually gets free, but very small). How likely is this?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
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1. yes, it's almost completely ASB
2. The Czech legion might have been able to do something, but then again they were more interested in finding a way home.
3. Kornilov's coup successful
4. Certainly very different view on nationalism and new nations, since Russia would want to remain a great Power and won't recognize Finland, Poland and the Baltic States. Also Russia would want Constantinople and Galizia
5. Russe under a military regime somehow stumble on their own feet is very likely, but also preventable. Let's say it's 65% chance they fail and 35% chance they somehow manage to survive.
 
1. yes, it's almost completely ASB

As I thought. I'll wait for more responses, though.
What I'd like to see, if anyone has the time, is a simple list of things why Russia's collapse in 1917 was inevitable. Remember, even it delaying by a few years might be enough to bring them to the peace negotiations strong.
 
Not completely ASB IMHO, but required an earlier POD (like the 1905 rebellion not happening, or a much, much stronger recovery period 1905-1914).

I'm certain it would have had quite an impact on the Versailles Treaty, be that militarily (Germany cannot shift as many troops West in 1917 and is weaker on both fronts), or politically (carving up Germany to create Poland is bound to be less popular among allies now that a strong Russia is here).

A funny ATL might have the Cold War start in the 1920s, with a drift growing between the Russians and the Western Allies - replace Communism with Pan-Slavism and keep the classic "realpolitik" elements of the conflicts, and you more or less have it all.
 
A funny ATL might have the Cold War start in the 1920s, with a drift growing between the Russians and the Western Allies - replace Communism with Pan-Slavism and keep the classic "realpolitik" elements of the conflicts, and you more or less have it all.

Meh, too AH for my plans.

So, if everything goes like OTL until the outbreak of Great War, there's no way things could get better for Russia?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Meh, too AH for my plans.

So, if everything goes like OTL until the outbreak of Great War, there's no way things could get better for Russia?

Sure there are. I know a certain person will arrive a this thread any minute shouting STOLYPIN with capital letters. But the truth is having Stolypin survive still won't be enough. Nicky II would just fire him as soon as he find it convenient, so having Nicky die in a little accident, and have his weak sick son on the throne, unable to prevent Stolypin from reforming the monarchy. However this of course demand some PoDs and development pre 1914.

After 1914, well I don't see Russia being able to prevent the Bolshevik revolution if Kornilov's coup fail. The Whites can still win the Civil War if they're seriously wanked (you need to change quite a few factors), but a Russia that have suffered from a civil war have no place in Versailles. A Russia under Kornilov that have kept fighting would have a place, and it would be interesting to see what kind of chaos Russia can create at the peace table. With no Bretsk- Litovsk Russia would be in a good situation, but the Junta in power would be far from secure. They could probably fall any day, and the West would be aware of that.
 
Meh, too AH for my plans.

So, if everything goes like OTL until the outbreak of Great War, there's no way things could get better for Russia?

I think it could, but would require some solid argument to answer these questions (especially with a 1914+ POD) :

- why are the Soviets less able to bring down Kerensky's government?
- why is Russia able to battle both the Central Powers and the Soviet forces?
- what makes Russian society more able to resist revolution, or alternatively, what makes Russia able to be in a better military situation?
 
To partly answer the both of you, the fact that a nation suffering from a civil war wouldn't have much to say at Versailles, I was looking for a solution that the entire revolution doesn't happen. Or well, it CAN happen, but not in 1917.

Without having to fight the Soviets and therefore possibly without Brest-Litovsk, they could have continued fighting the Germans, whose war effort was already wearing down.
 
(Not letting this thread die away just yet.)

So, if the Russians were a bit more successful - say, the Brusilov offensive went better, couldn't the revolution attempt occur later?
 
(Not letting this thread die away just yet.)

So, if the Russians were a bit more successful - say, the Brusilov offensive went better, couldn't the revolution attempt occur later?

Hard to tell - it might lead to Germany using Lenin's Soviets earlier, come to think of it.

I don't know enough of Russian history to tell if the success of the Soviet revolution was mostly due to military failures or to more structural weaknesses that turned deadly with the hardships of the war. Even nations which were winning (or appeared to be) had to face war weariness, the fabric of society unraveling, etc.

I tend to think that successful campaigns alone will not save Imperial Russia, but maybe the combination of military success plus Kerensky's foiling Lenin's plans to impose the Soviets by force in St Petersburg could have maintained Russia in the race.
 
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