Russia Lasting to the End of WW1?

[anotherlurker]

having someone in russia remind the important people that the rail way system need to be maintained and repaired would be a very good start.

 

[BlondieBC]

having someone in russia remind the important people that the rail way system need to be maintained and repaired would be a very good start.

My impression is they lacked the capacity to do it and that they imported the majority of their rail stock. It is a fixable issue with an early enough POD with a Stalinish industrialization program. But once into the war, the Ottomans doomed them. And even with the Ottomans neutral, I am not sure how much they could have really imported due to financial limitations and world wide production limits. Steel prices jumped up to 6:1 at the start of the war, and the straights are a perfect location for U-boats to hunt.

Just as the German war plan had some fundamental flaws that are very hard to fix, so did Russia. In fact, this was true of most of the countries involved except Japan which had the right forces on Day 1. Russia attacking hard to save France in many ways had to be done if Germany turned west first. The choice of a more leisurely attack with much fewer forces (at least 1/3 fewer men) would have been a CP win in most ATL. But doing this necessary action leads to severe food issues. Yes, there are things that could have been done better with rationing or pricing, but you the 12 million men or so men removed along with horse off the farm crippled food production since the Russians used labor intensive methods. All this compounded by very high usage of RR assets.

And these RR problems are not unique to Russia, but the other people could endure better. I have read accounts of what the British rail service looked like, and it was horrible. They had run the trains skipping maintenance cycles for years, so they railstock was largely "needed to be scrapped" category. It is just the UK is a much smaller country with more industry, so they managed better. No nation was ready for 4 years of industrial warfare, it is just Russia was least prepared. France was following Russia economic collapse with about a 12-18 month delay, so they likely fall apart in the winter of 1918/19 without the USA entering the war. And if not then, then the next winter. AH fell apart in late 1918.

 

[Bee]

The Russians did attack the Germans in the North, and had gains. You can have fewer troops sent to reinforce Brusilov, and instead stay North to attack. It gives the Russians extra gains, but it does not save Russia. The harvest of 1916 is already planted, and you are either increasing or keeping the same the level of Germans loss. The Tsar still falls, but you might change who takes power in the end.

Wasn't simultaneous. The northern commander (Evert) delayed as long as he could, then botched the offensive when he finally launched it. The opportunity was wasted. You might be correct that the Czar still falls eventually, but a successful campaign in 1916 gives Russia better chances.

 

[BlondieBC]

Wasn't simultaneous. The northern commander (Evert) delayed as long as he could, then botched the offensive when he finally launched it. The opportunity was wasted. You might be correct that the Czar still falls eventually, but a successful campaign in 1916 gives Russia better chances.

I am sure the Tsar fails still. By about June 1916, it is unavoidable. It is about food, and unless you demobilize soldiers and animals to grow food over the winter of 1915/16, the Tsar is doomed. And the Germans did not make the mistakes the AH did. Brusilov worked because they only had one line occupied. It will not bust the German 3 trench system. Gains sure. General advance, no.

 

[ModernKiwi]

The food issues were caused by government set grain prices that were lower than what it cost to grow. Farmers switched to self sufficiency mode and stopped producing a surplus. Remove that and you remove a big chunk of the food issue.

 

[B_Munro]

The food issues were caused by government set grain prices that were lower than what it cost to grow. Farmers switched to self sufficiency mode and stopped producing a surplus. Remove that and you remove a big chunk of the food issue.

Bu would the urban masses be able to _afford_ the grain at the prices farmers needed to turn a profit?

Bruce

 

[Daztur]

Maybe have a better initial invasion of Germany at the start of the war and have their two armies actually cooperate a bit? It wouldn't succeed in getting Berlin or anything but have it be less of a cluster fuck has got to help.

 

[Perkeo]

Maby all you need is the German OR the Russian leadership having a leap if insight and do a realistic calculation of the gains and losses of the continuation of the war vs. a negotiated peace.

Wilson showed the road to victory: First you make a reasonable peace offer, then you prove on the battlefield that your readyness to negotiate is not to be misinterpreted as weakness.

 

[Deckhand]

Hi, what would it take for the Russians to last to the end of WW1 with a POD of 1900? By lasting i mean staying in the war with the Germans, Austro-Hungarians and Ottomans until they all surrender or a truce happens, with all Entente members lasting as well.

Also, how far can the Russian army advance against the Central Powers? Or how can they prevent the advance of Central Powers army if they can't advance?

Also, what can Russia get from the war? I assume it would get a fair bit due to its role in the war?

1900?, easy. Have one of the dozen polish assassination attempts on Georgi Skalon work, leaving Brusilov in charge of the NW front, turning East Prussia into a Russian operational victory. The germans are pushed to the Vistula by end of september, and the late mobilizing Russian follow on armies, i think they were 9th and 11th, instead of having to shore up the mess, take undefended Silesia.

The germans panic, and send more than OTL from the west, just in time for the marne, where they are routed worse than OTL, and bundled back into Belgium with heavy casualties. Antwerp is relieved, and with half their industry in Russian hands, and lack of nitrates, Germany has real resupply issues going into winter, and the Ottomans think better of the whole thing and never come in.

In Spring, the Russian crack the Carpathians, and the Austrians collapse when the Italians come in. The Germans are unable to do anything about it due to the previous years losses, and the war is over by summer 1915 in a negotiated peace.

Kaiser's Bill and Franz are kept on their respective thrones as Nicky has no interest in Republics or self determination, and Austria loses Galicia, bits of Bosnia and Italy, and Germany loses Alsace-Lorraine, some but not all of their colonies, and whatever Polish speaking bits they may have. Generally a nicer to the CP peace than Versailles. Lots of domestic flaws in Russia are papered over with victory, and the Imperial systems in AH and Russia totter on, to maybe or maybe not survive the next crisis, which will probably involve Hungary

 

[Bee]

I am sure the Tsar fails still. By about June 1916, it is unavoidable. It is about food, and unless you demobilize soldiers and animals to grow food over the winter of 1915/16, the Tsar is doomed. And the Germans did not make the mistakes the AH did. Brusilov worked because they only had one line occupied. It will not bust the German 3 trench system. Gains sure. General advance, no.

A Northern Brusilov on the Riga Front can tie up the German army and stop Germany from rescuing Austria. It was what Ludendorff and Hindeberg feared the most.

I agree with you that the food shortage is the critical issue. There is some more to say about it.

The 1915 grain harvest was actually exceptionally good, and there was enough food in Russia to feed everyone in 1916. POWs were being used on farm labor, which alleviated some of the manpower problems. However, the government was trying to keep grain prices low which meant paying the peasants less. Also, the country's manufacturing facilities were all devoted to turning out war materiel so there were less manufactured goods useful for farming available, and few people could afford them. As a result, instead of selling grain, the peasants were hoarding it (or turning it into alcohol) so there were severe food shortages in the cities, exactly as you pointed out.

Maybe the food problem is still insoluble, but there's the issue, and we're allowed 20/20 hindsight here if anyone wants to give it a try.

 

[ModernKiwi]

Bu would the urban masses be able to _afford_ the grain at the prices farmers needed to turn a profit?

Bruce

Russia was suffering from massive inflation. Wages paid to factory workers had climbed significantly - supply on the other hand had not.

So yes they'd have been able to pay, if there was grain to purchase.