Russia keeps fighting: Post-war Europe

This should probably go into the ASB section, but I'll keep it here for now.

What would Europe look like if the Revolution was some how prevented and Tsarist Russia had kept up the fight against Germany. I imagine the POD to butterfly the revolution would be pretty big, so let's just say that there were some decent political and military reforms that kept Russia in the war and putting up a pretty good show agaisnt the CPs.

So how will Europe look after this? Will the ethnic minorities of European Russia demand self-determination as was being implemented in Austria-Hungary? Would Russia annex any territory off Germany or demand an occupation zone? What would they also take off AH for that matter? Or the Ottomans?
 
If Kerensky doesn't order an offensive, but simply tells his troops that they will defend if attacked, but they will not attack themselves, it's possible that the Kerensky government is able to survive. Russians will still want an end to the war, but given that Germany will ask for enormous concessions, Kerensky can probably argue that Russia cannot accept. Lenin only accepted the Treaty of Brest Litovsk because the Bolsheviks were already dealing with a civil war and couldn't fight the Germans too.
Of Kerensky can hold on, then when the war is won in the West, he is able to be one of the victors.

The big issue is what happens to all the land that the Central Powers currently occupy. Since much of it is populated with non-Russians, they might be able to get independence anyway. At the very least, an independent Poland was one of Wilson's 14 Points, and this could be achievable especially if Germany - in the face of Kerensky not making peace - built up the Regency Kingdom of Poland (still likely to become a Republic and add German territories to it under the upcoming peace treaty with Germany).

Russia may still degenerate into Civil War since the Kerensky government will be weak. What states become independent really depends on the specifics to follow. But the Caucasus and Finland have a decent chance based on their geography. I doubt Russia will be able to expand in the scenario I laid out.

As to changes where Russia has a greatly improved military performance, how much it could grab really depends on the specific details. Neither Britain, France, or the US would want an expansive Russia. Russia might have some kind of protector role to play to any slav states created out of a broken up Austria-Hungary, but I don't see much else in Europe. Russia might be more successful in arguing for Armenian state in Turkey it could also play a protector role, or to absorb that into Russia as autonomous part of the empire, much like Finland was.

The political climate in Europe was changing too much for multi-ethnic empires to keep expanding.
 
The Russians might be able to grab Galicia from Austria-Hungary if they can stick it out until the Central Powers collapse.

Of course, if Russia is too bled white, they might not be able to reassert their power over areas the Central Powers evacuate, if the population doesn't want it.

Plus there's Wilson and the Fourteen Points to consider...
 
Little known fact, but Brest-Litovsk peace talks broke down and only then did the Germans and Austrians sieze pretty much the OTL terms land.

Initally they were only asking for Poland and the Baltic States. Trotsky said no so hostilities resumed until OTL's terms were hammered out.

The Central Powers wanted out of the Eastern Front almost as much as the Russians. If terms like that were offered to the czar, he may well accept them, especially if there's Red rebellion festering throughout Russia still.

Germany shifting a large body of troops to the west a few months ahead of OTLs schedule could have all kinds of interesting consequences.
 
The OP is asking about no FIRST Russian revolution, rather than no SECOND. On that basis, it is not so difficult to achieve, since it was a catalogue of refusals which led to the original revolution. If a competent first minister had been appointed, and if Rasputin's assassins/comspirators thereof had not been punished with dishonour then you could get something out of this. Regarding the latter point, sending Dmitri into exile lost the Tsar the active support of Paul and of his clique, thereby effectively opening the door to his own removal because some of the strongest potential supporters no longer cared for him

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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