Russia joins the 1859 Austro-Italian War

[Aphrodite]

Suppose the Russians decide to take vengence on the Austrians for their lack of support during the Crimea and invade Galicia while the Austrians are fighting the French and italians?

How much can the get and what would be the attitude of the other powers- particularly the Ottomans, British and the minor German states. Would anyone be willing and able to intervene in time?

 

[dcontreras]

Suppose the Russians decide to take vengence on the Austrians for their lack of support during the Crimea and invade Galicia while the Austrians are fighting the French and italians?

How much can the get and what would be the attitude of the other powers- particularly the Ottomans, British and the minor German states. Would anyone be willing and able to intervene in time?

Why wouldn't they consider siding with the Austrians because the Italians (at the time Sardinia) fought with the British and French against them in the Crimean War?

 

[vortiger]

is Russia even in a condition to wage war on Austria?

 

[TimTurner]

Why wouldn't they consider siding with the Austrians because the Italians (at the time Sardinia) fought with the British and French against them in the Crimean War?

not to mention Austria stayed out of the Crimean War despite geopolitical alignments of the time making that, all other things being equal, something that would on balance be unlikely...

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Why wouldn't they consider siding with the Austrians because the Italians (at the time Sardinia) fought with the British and French against them in the Crimean War?

Because Sardegna Piedmont is far away and Austria is near by and really... betrayed them, as far as the Russians were concerned.

I personally find a Russian War unlikely.

 

[The Gunslinger]

Everyone is going to wonder why Russia forcibly put down the Hungarians for the Austrians a decade earlier

 

[Max Sinister]

Everyone is going to wonder why Russia forcibly put down the Hungarians for the Austrians a decade earlier

That's why tsar Nikolai said "Me and Jan Sobieski are the most stupid kings of Poland - we both saved Austria, and they were ungrateful!"

Was Russia ready for a war, with the Crimean war that short a time ago, and Alexander doing reforms?

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Before France jumped in, it would be a disasterious affair as Austria is cleaning Sardinia's clock and the Russian army is disorganized mess with a half empty war chest and everything in transition. Post-French Entry, it would be an unacceptable violation of the Vienna System power balance to cut more that Lombardy off Austria and all the other powers are already wary of her ambitions following Crimes,so she loses the peace since she won't be allowed to extract anything from the defeated.

 

[dcontreras]

Because Sardegna Piedmont is far away and Austria is near by and really... betrayed them, as far as the Russians were concerned.

I personally find a Russian War unlikely.

What about Prussia? The Concert of Europe was an agreement to maintain the balance of power. Austria did not come to the aid of Russia, but then again, neither did the Prussians.

 

[LordKalvan]

Before France jumped in, it would be a disasterious affair as Austria is cleaning Sardinia's clock and the Russian army is disorganized mess with a half empty war chest and everything in transition. Post-French Entry, it would be an unacceptable violation of the Vienna System power balance to cut more that Lombardy off Austria and all the other powers are already wary of her ambitions following Crimes,so she loses the peace since she won't be allowed to extract anything from the defeated.

There were just two weeks (27 April to 10 May) between the Austrian war declaration and the arrival of the French troops and the Austrian CiC, Gyulai, could not be accused of being a decisive general. He dithered until 7 May before moving forward, and by then it was too late.
It was in many ways a situation that will be repeated in 1870: the side which declares war is not ready to immediately move

It is interesting that on 18 March Russia had proposed a conference of the Powers in Paris, which was supported by the British and by the Prussians. Napoleon III, under the influence of his Foreign Minister, Walewski, accepted the conference even if Cavour had traveled to Paris to convince him to keep faith the the pact of Plombieres. Cavour had to accept the conference too,on 18 April, and the demobilization of the Piedmontese army (also France and Austria should demobilize their forces), subject to a participation of Piedmont-Sardinia to the Congress. Austria refused to countenance a Piedmontese participation and on 23 April delivered an ultimatum to Piedmont asking for immediate demobilization. Bad move, overall, which isolated Austria on the diplomatic side.

 

[Max Sinister]

Austria's policy during the Crimean war was stupid: They mobilized against Russia but didn't really do anything, so they were perceived as hostile by Russia and still not helpful by the Allies. Prussia did jack, which didn't anger the Allies, but of all the other powers, they were most friendly to Russia, which the latter saw.

 

[alexmilman]

is Russia even in a condition to wage war on Austria?

In 1859 it was not. It spent 800M rubles and had to start printing the unsecured paper money with a resulting devaluation of a ruble (approximately 50%). Non-deficit budget was restored only in 1870. The law triggering creation of the railroads had been signed only in 1857. Russian army needed fundamental reforms both in organization and equipment and Russia still had to abolish a serfdom to start moving forward. Hardly a good situation to be involved in a major European War (in OTL Russia remained neutral even during Austro-Prussian War).

 

[alexmilman]

That's why tsar Nikolai said "Me and Jan Sobieski are the most stupid kings of Poland - we both saved Austria, and they were ungrateful!"

Was Russia ready for a war, with the Crimean war that short a time ago, and Alexander doing reforms?

No, it was not and Alexander's reforms were at the very beginning (emancipation of the serfs did not start yet, construction of the railroads only started, military reforms will start only in 1861) and state's finances would not allow a new major war.

 

[LordKalvan]

No, it was not and Alexander's reforms were at the very beginning (emancipation of the serfs did not start yet, construction of the railroads only started, military reforms will start only in 1861) and state's finances would not allow a new major war.

For all that matters, Austrian finance too were not in good shape, and certainly couldn't support a war beyond a few weeks

 

[Vanity 6]

Wonder what the Congress in Paris would have accomplished? Perhaps a French financed buyout of Lombardy and the creattion of the French sought Papal led Confederacy?

 

[FillyofDelphi]

For all that matters, Austrian finance too were not in good shape, and certainly couldn't support a war beyond a few weeks

They didn't really have a choice not to mobalize the army (and all the expenses associated with it) if Sardinia was insistent on continuing to march up and down the border, and if Turin could thanks to her connections to the Paris stock market afford to keep a standoff going longer than Austria. Russia is actively jumping in when staying out would be not just be as viable but more so.

 

[LordKalvan]

They didn't really have a choice not to mobalize the army (and all the expenses associated with it) if Sardinia was insistent on continuing to march up and down the border, and if Turin could thanks to her connections to the Paris stock market afford to keep a standoff going longer than Austria. Russia is actively jumping in when staying out would be not just be as viable but more so.

Austria might accept the Congress in Paris with the participation of Piedmont. Refusing it, and issuing an ultimatum was very arrogant and didn't take into account their own weak financial position

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Austria might accept the Congress in Paris with the participation of Piedmont. Refusing it, and issuing an ultimatum was very arrogant and didn't take into account their own weak financial position

True. However, I was drawing the distinction between the budgetary issues you brought up in Russia and Austria, since the politics behind instigating war on both ends were different. There is also the question of if Vienna,in a Congress where Piedmont was a member in equal standing (a move that would in essence elevate her into the Great Power Club who's interests would have to be balanced and fit into the Vienna System... which would only come at Austria's expense) they woud have a chance of emerging will anything short of enforced capitulation with the threat of a joint powers intervention backing the demand to hand over Lombardy. A quick blow that smashes Turin's military position and would keep her from being considered as an equal in the negotiations about the new Status Quo in Italy,on the other hand, would mean Austria would be negotiating from a position of strength and arguing against the more modest French interests, thus allowing her to extract compensation and better terms for her concessions

 

[alexmilman]

Everyone is going to wonder why Russia forcibly put down the Hungarians for the Austrians a decade earlier

Because Nicholas I was a man of principle with principle being substitute for the brains.

 

[LordKalvan]

True. However, I was drawing the distinction between the budgetary issues you brought up in Russia and Austria, since the politics behind instigating war on both ends were different. There is also the question of if Vienna,in a Congress where Piedmont was a member in equal standing (a move that would in essence elevate her into the Great Power Club who's interests would have to be balanced and fit into the Vienna System... which would only come at Austria's expense) they woud have a chance of emerging will anything short of enforced capitulation with the threat of a joint powers intervention backing the demand to hand over Lombardy. A quick blow that smashes Turin's military position and would keep her from being considered as an equal in the negotiations about the new Status Quo in Italy,on the other hand, would mean Austria would be negotiating from a position of strength and arguing against the more modest French interests, thus allowing her to extract compensation and better terms for her concessions

In principle, you might have a point. In practice, Austria was isolated diplomatically after their indecisive behaviour in the war of Crimea where they had managed to discontent both sides (and Prussia was still smarting from the humiliation of the Punctuation of Olmutz). France had also officially notified Austria that crossing the Ticino would be considered a casus belli. In this situation handing over an ultimatum to Piedmont was pure arrogance and declaring war was even worse. In many ways, it was a prequel of Austrian behaviour in June 1914, and probably with even less justification