Russia intervenes during the Meiji Restoration, what can happen?

Who would win the Boshin War

  • Defeat of the Imperial faction

    Votes: 2 14.3%
  • Defeat of the Shogunate, similar to OTL

    Votes: 4 28.6%
  • Shogunate holds on to Northern Japan

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Shogunate survives in Hokkaido a la Ezo Republic?

    Votes: 7 50.0%
  • Imperial court achieves total victory; Sakhalin is seized etc.

    Votes: 1 7.1%

  • Total voters
    14
As per the title, we’re assuming for whatever reason Russia decides to intervene on the side of the Shogunate, say Russia had a lot more invested in the Japanese Shogunate government and decided that military intervention in some form would be necessary. What next? Would the conflict escalate between neighboring Great Powers?
 
A Japan ultimately divided between a military dictator in the north and a god-emperor in the south would certainly be interesting. As for escalating great power tensions by the time the Meiji Restoration starts the Civil War is over. Because the US opened Japan there could be strong feelings about a European government flagrantly meddling in an attempt to modernise that would make Japan more open to US influences. Would Russia still sell Alaska to get the cash for such a venture, and would they still try to sell to the US or just go to Britain?
 
When does it happen? After Toba-Fushimi Yoshinobu simply gave up and the "war" became more of a chase of the New Government's forces attacking the disorganized Tokugawa remnants until the superior Tokugawa navy stalled them at Ezo. I also don't know how much power projection Russia could deploy into Japan in 1868, nor the British reaction if they did.
 
If Russia can just pressure Choshu, it might give the Shogunate the advantage considering they were the hardliners of the conflict. As for changes, it might be the emperor is restored, but the Tokugawa retain power as first suggested.
 
But what could happen if the Russian pacific fleet stopped the Japanese from advancing against Hokkaido? Would the Japanese try to attack anyway, I know the Imperial Fleet was pretty advanced, even in possession of an ironclad, but could it breach a Russian attempt at holding the Japanese out of Hokkaido? Then what of the surviving Ezo Republic? Does it try to retake Japan or does it become no more than a Russian protectorate?
 
But what could happen if the Russian pacific fleet stopped the Japanese from advancing against Hokkaido? Would the Japanese try to attack anyway, I know the Imperial Fleet was pretty advanced, even in possession of an ironclad, but could it breach a Russian attempt at holding the Japanese out of Hokkaido? Then what of the surviving Ezo Republic? Does it try to retake Japan or does it become no more than a Russian protectorate?
I don't know enough about Japanese naval history but if Russia could buy time for the Shogun and supporters to flee en masse to Ezo it could become entrenched enough to survive under the Russian aegis, although it will likely remain a sore point in international relations not unlike Taiwan's relationship with mainland China.
 
As per the title, we’re assuming for whatever reason Russia decides to intervene on the side of the Shogunate, say Russia had a lot more invested in the Japanese Shogunate government and decided that military intervention in some form would be necessary. What next? Would the conflict escalate between neighboring Great Powers?

Just curious, how exactly could Russia interfere in any meaningful way? Below is a photo of the flagship (and the biggest ship) of the Siberian flotilla in 1850 - 70s, corvette “America”

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And here is almost the whole Pacific fleet (Siberian flotilla) in the late 1870. On the right 2 armored frigates and 3 clippers, in the center “America”and 2 tugboats, on the back armed merchant steamships of the Voluntary Fleet. Strengthening of the fleet started only after 1880.
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Taking into an account that port of Vladivostok was founded only in 1880 and Trans Siberian Railroad was not completed even in 1904, and that Witte conducted his financial reform only in 1896, it is easy to figure out that by the time of Meiji Restoration Russia did not have meaningful navy or troops on the Far East for any military intervention and did not have money for serious investment into Japan.
 
I don't know enough about Japanese naval history but if Russia could buy time for the Shogun and supporters to flee en masse to Ezo it could become entrenched enough to survive under the Russian aegis, although it will likely remain a sore point in international relations not unlike Taiwan's relationship with mainland China.
There was no shogun anymore by the time of the Boshin War, that may sound pedantic, but that shows that the conflict wasn't the Emperor vs Shogunate, but Satcho alliance vs Tokugawa faction, the Shogun you're probably talking about (Tokugawa Yoshinobu) didn't flee to Ezo, but remained at Edo and surrendered the castle and the city to the New Government's forces.
 
There was no shogun anymore by the time of the Boshin War, that may sound pedantic, but that shows that the conflict wasn't the Emperor vs Shogunate, but Satcho alliance vs Tokugawa faction, the Shogun you're probably talking about (Tokugawa Yoshinobu) didn't flee to Ezo, but remained at Edo and surrendered the castle and the city to the New Government's forces.
Fair enough, could Shogun as a title survive in Ezo though?
 
IMO Russia would probably not be able to get there in significant enough forces (whether boots on the grounds, ships in the seas or brains and technology) to achieve more than pissing off the winners, so probably somewhat similar to OTL, if anything it would be a poisoned chalice for the Shogunate since French assistance would dry out faster since they weren't exactly fans of Russia either (Crimean war was only a decade earlier).
 
the last thing russia should do is meddling...that will fucking galvanize japan and the meiji faction would be so emboldened and furious with russia, expect a more brutal ruso-japanese war later on
 
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