Russia in the Central Powers

You have to have some kind of solution in the Balkans between Russia and Austria. Perhaps Austria is less expansionist due to internal problems and both sides are willing to negotiate in a conference mediated by the Germans. Clear spheres of influence are set, Turkey is left out. This drives the Turks to the British side, who now have renewed Russophobia. However, this is still not enough for WW1 to actually happen, as France is not suicidal. You have to have some kind of crisis, and have at least the Italians firmly in the Entente for them to even consider war. Maybe after the said conference, the British start meddling in the Balkans, trying to create a counterweight, such as Greece and Romania. This is a big enough alliance that could give the Entente some confidence, should any crisis arise. Maybe include Persia as well. Perhaps even Sweden.
 
Problem is that the Germans wanted a lot of Russian territory, if they settle for Brest Litovisk style peace (the only way I can see the Germans allowing Russia to change sides) the Russian people probably aren't going to be supporting another war against the Entente, the Tsar would be lucky to survive... Probably need to change the sides before the war.
The Germans entered the war with no clear aims, and even in as late as 1916, nothing in the East could justify a B-L style peace. If borders change at all, Poland will become a German client kingdom, but even status quo ante in the East is a win for the Germans, provided it means that they are left a free hand to crush France.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Easy. Russia adheres to Bjorko. Easier to do with an avoid or Russia wins the Manchurian War scenario
That might be problematic due to the loss of French investment, though; indeed, once Russia has already began sucking the French teat, it might be extremely hesitant to stop.

What about a change of sides in the middle of the war. Had Gallipoli worked, there is no plausible way that the RN would give up its new basing opportunity which means that there is no way an Entente Russia will (ever) get the straits......
The Russian people and Russian Parliament would have never agreed to that, though; indeed, doing this would certainly be political suicide for the Russian Tsar!

That would be a strange reversal of the Russian political situation. It was the ultra-conservatives (Krasnov included) who had some Germanophile tendencies and who could maybe be inclined to support a separate deal with Germany. Not the Duma and the Russian liberals, who were distinctly pro-Entente and nationalist in a more modern sense.

Any attempt at a separate peace would, at this point, probably be received with anger and hostility. Except maybe if it's a status quo ante bellum, but the CP are extremely unlikely to offer that. So even if Rasputin somehow successfully persuades the Imperial household, Nicholas and Alexandra would be pretty much alone. There would be no major split in the political and military elites (and what little support Nicky and Alix get would be coming from the ultra-conservative fringes - if, indeed, they get any support at all).

At that point, one might expect anti-Rasputin sentiment and the "Stupidity or Treason" dynamic to explode into a minor revolution/palace coup. Nicky is forced to abdicate and replaced by a liberal-ish regency and cabinet. The new "Provisional Government" continues the war, possibly with better management. There would be no alternative regime or civil war, at least not for the time being.
For what it's worth, I actually think that Germany might be willing to offer a status quo ante bellum peace to Russia in 1915; after all, if Germany defeats France, it could always turn on Russia later and thus get whatever it wants in the East.
 
The Russian people and Russian Parliament would have never agreed to that, though; indeed, doing this would certainly be political suicide for the Russian Tsar!
The Russian parliament is a joke, and those of the Russian people who consent to their governance know that Turkey, and not Germany, is Russia's real obstacle. If Britain holds the straits, then it, rather than Turkey, is the main foe, and the masses can be ginned up to support a fight against the treachery of perfidious Albion.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The Russian parliament is a joke, and those of the Russian people who consent to their governance know that Turkey, and not Germany, is Russia's real obstacle. If Britain holds the straits, then it, rather than Turkey, is the main foe, and the masses can be ginned up to support a fight against the treachery of perfidious Albion.
Why the heck would Britain be stupid enough to keep the Straits, though? After all, it needs Russia's help to fight Germany!
 
It's even less in Britain's interests to have a Germany which dominates Europe, though.
They're not dominating Europe if Russia is left unmolested, and trading German colonies for parts of the Continent is doable, given the example of the Napoleonic Wars.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
They're not dominating Europe if Russia is left unmolested, and trading German colonies for parts of the Continent is doable, given the example of the Napoleonic Wars.
If France is defeated, though, Germany can always turn on Russia later.
 
The Germans entered the war with no clear aims, and even in as late as 1916, nothing in the East could justify a B-L style peace. If borders change at all, Poland will become a German client kingdom, but even status quo ante in the East is a win for the Germans, provided it means that they are left a free hand to crush France.

Actually the whole plan was predicated on taking Russia down, France was to be swiftly knocked out so they could concentrate on Russia. The Germans were nervous about Russia, it was starting to industrialize and was being bank rolled by France. Allying with Russia wasn't in the cards, it needed to be before the war. I don't see the point in why would Russia swap either, the Tsar wasn't keen on the idea of surrendering let alone changing sides. I doubt the providional government would be keen either.
 
That might be problematic due to the loss of French investment, though; indeed, once Russia has already began sucking the French teat, it might be extremely hesitant to stop.

Not really. Except for the brief period of 1905-7 Russian finances were pretty solid. There's a major loan in 1906 of about 600 million nominal (500 net) that comes from French and British banks. Austrian banks also provided 120 million for it. The Germans could have raised that much to brea the entente. NOt getting into an arms race with Germany would save far more.

Russia's military position is a bit strained and the Entente helps with Japan but the main reason Russia rejects Bjorko is the need to maintain a counterweight to Germany.




It's not in Britain's interest for Russia to have them, as centuries of British policy dictated.

the straits only become an issue between Russia and Britain really after the Napoleonic Wars. By the 1890's British interest in the straits had shrunk considerably. The consensus in the government was that they weren't really t hat important
 
Actually the whole plan was predicated on taking Russia down, France was to be swiftly knocked out so they could concentrate on Russia. The Germans were nervous about Russia, it was starting to industrialize and was being bank rolled by France. Allying with Russia wasn't in the cards, it needed to be before the war. I don't see the point in why would Russia swap either, the Tsar wasn't keen on the idea of surrendering let alone changing sides. I doubt the providional government would be keen either.
You said it yourself. France was bankrolling the Russian effort. France had to be put away. Russia was a nuisance, but before and after the war, Russia was the logical partner for Germany.
 
@Aphrodite The Great Game was still on, as Afghanistan proves, and as British policy in the Balkans demonstrates.

That may be but the Straits had long since been given up on. The British had basically withdrawn from the Mediterranean in 1914 and Russian railways were a real threat to India not the idiotic lunacy that the straits were. Britain understood that if she wanted to avoid a huge expense, which would make India unprofitable, the choice was accomodation
 
That may be but the Straits had long since been given up on. The British had basically withdrawn from the Mediterranean in 1914 and Russian railways were a real threat to India not the idiotic lunacy that the straits were. Britain understood that if she wanted to avoid a huge expense, which would make India unprofitable, the choice was accomodation
It Britain had given up on the Med, why did it seek Palestine after the war?
 
You said it yourself. France was bankrolling the Russian effort. France had to be put away. Russia was a nuisance, but before and after the war, Russia was the logical partner for Germany.

Russia was the existential threat, allying with them wasn't the plan, knocking them out was. Again I'm not saying an alliance isnt possible, having the Russians decide to ally with Germany after both sides have invaded each other is remote, those cold egos of the early 1900s were locked in, Russia was determined to not look like a pussy and Germany was keen to ensure its hegemony at the expense of France and Russia. You'd need to split the entente earlier, having Russia against Britain is a logical alt alliance.
 
Russia was the existential threat, allying with them wasn't the plan, knocking them out was. Again I'm not saying an alliance isnt possible, having the Russians decide to ally with Germany after both sides have invaded each other is remote, those cold egos of the early 1900s were locked in, Russia was determined to not look like a pussy and Germany was keen to ensure its hegemony at the expense of France and Russia. You'd need to split the entente earlier, having Russia against Britain is a logical alt alliance.
Dreikaiserbund. I've explained why Russia and Britain would be at odds.
 
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