Russia in the Central Powers

What about a change of sides in the middle of the war. Had Gallipoli worked, there is no plausible way that the RN would give up its new basing opportunity which means that there is no way an Entente Russia will (ever) get the straits......
 
What about a change of sides in the middle of the war. Had Gallipoli worked, there is no plausible way that the RN would give up its new basing opportunity which means that there is no way an Entente Russia will (ever) get the straits......

I mean in terms of propaganda I can't see that working honestly, would the Russian people go for it given that millions of their sons and brothers have died fighting the Germans? Would the Germans and Austrians even go for it, most of the territory they want is Russian. Even then, the war started as an Austria vs Russia/Serbia dispute, I just can't see them abandoning the Serbs and the Serbs definitely aren't changing sides. I think there's just far too much getting in the way for this, in general its very hard to swap sides in a major war without a government change.
 
The problem is that there isn't likely to be a war if a German-Russian-Austrian alliance remains stable. Why would France throw herself into a suicidal conflict?

And there is no way for Russia to change sides mid-war.
 
I mean in terms of propaganda I can't see that working honestly, would the Russian people go for it given that millions of their sons and brothers have died fighting the Germans? Would the Germans and Austrians even go for it, most of the territory they want is Russian. Even then, the war started as an Austria vs Russia/Serbia dispute, I just can't see them abandoning the Serbs and the Serbs definitely aren't changing sides. I think there's just far too much getting in the way for this, in general its very hard to swap sides in a major war without a government change.
Serbia is a means to an end for the Russians. If they feel betrayed by their British allies, then perhaps they drop out of the war rather than changing sides. Germany did not have clear war aims before the war, and the alliance structures are going to blunt relatively pointless Russian gains in the West. Remember, Russia wavered at the outset on going to war for the sake of Austria, which does not have territorial ambitions itself so much as it does desire for a broad sphere of influence in the Balkans.
 
Serbia is a means to an end for the Russians. If they feel betrayed by their British allies, then perhaps they drop out of the war rather than changing sides. Germany did not have clear war aims before the war, and the alliance structures are going to blunt relatively pointless Russian gains in the West. Remember, Russia wavered at the outset on going to war for the sake of Austria, which does not have territorial ambitions itself so much as it does desire for a broad sphere of influence in the Balkans.

I can certainly imagine them dropping out, I mean they basically did OTL but there's a big gap between that and switching sides. Also swapping sides leaves them open to a Japanese attack in the pacific. I think the biggest issue is probably the Central Powers not going for it, can St Petersberg really persuade the Turks, Germans and Austrians to suddenly stop killing them and fight alongside them? Can the CP convinced their own people? Can Russia?
 
I can certainly imagine them dropping out, I mean they basically did OTL but there's a big gap between that and switching sides. Also swapping sides leaves them open to a Japanese attack in the pacific. I think the biggest issue is probably the Central Powers not going for it, can St Petersberg really persuade the Turks, Germans and Austrians to suddenly stop killing them and fight alongside them? Can the CP convinced their own people? Can Russia?
Racism makes Japanese attack untenable. 1905 proved that.
 
Racism makes Japanese attack untenable. 1905 proved that.
Surely all 1905 does is teach the Russians a lesson, they now know that the Japanese can attack and that they can do damage. Britain is also probably in a better position to attack Russia via India than vice-versa.
 
I can certainly imagine them dropping out, I mean they basically did OTL but there's a big gap between that and switching sides. Also swapping sides leaves them open to a Japanese attack in the pacific. I think the biggest issue is probably the Central Powers not going for it, can St Petersberg really persuade the Turks, Germans and Austrians to suddenly stop killing them and fight alongside them? Can the CP convinced their own people? Can Russia?

I can see one possability... kind of. It's a bit unlikely, but hear me out.

Let's say the Czar's government sends out peace feelers alot earlier: say, Rasputin has a drug-induced "holy vision" and convinces the Czar and Czarinna that they WILL lose their thrones if they don't get out of the war by, say, year's end (Or some other ominious date: let's just say its the end of 1915 for the sake of having just the right balance of CP power, remaining Imperial prestige, and internal Russian stability). While this gets support from certain elements of Russian society, others oppose it: key among them the military leaders who believe they still have a chance. Word leaks to the Entente that the secret talks are taking place, and in response they cut off Russia's credit supply and smuggle in supplies/give the green light for an attempted military coup (Say, led by Krasnov for the sake of simplicity/historical parallels). As a result, there's a split in the country: while the Duma and some of the more moderate liberals don't trust the Czar fully, they want to save their own necks and get a decent peace deal (Plus, having the Czar in their debt and the ultra-conservatives in chains would do wonders for getting their reforms passed), and so back Nicholas, while elements of the military and Pro-Entente ministers (For example, those who make their personal wealth off contracts with French or British firms) continue to fight the CP and wrestle control of Petrograd, Moscow, and other key regions from Imperial Loyalists.

For the sake of making the deal slightly more palatable/realistic, the winter-spring of 1915-1916 sees the Treaty of Belgrade; signed by Germany, A-H, Bulgaria, and The Ottoman Empire on one side and Serbia (Who agree to a negotiated peace following the historical trouncing of their armies) and Imperial Russia on the other, establishing peace on the Eastern Front (Save Salonika). Russian loses are relatively modest; the CP's position not being as strong as it was during B-L, likely limited to Poland, the Baltics, and modest border adjustments in the Caucuses, while Serbia loses Macedonia to Bulgaria, recognizes a pro-Austrian or pro-Ottoman regime in Albania which has rights to Kosovo once they get their civil war under control, and accept a "War Guilt" clause. Krasnov and the military Junta, of course, rejects these terms and tries to set up a competing government. For the sake of arguement, let's say they march into Petrograd while Czar Nicholas is off at the front to welcome the men home from a long war: something that sounds good in the papers and in word of mouth. The Duma is captured and executed or imprisoned; becoming martyers before they can really collect their debt from the Czar, and Krasnov is recognized by the Entente as the legitimate leader of Russia (Or maybe he places a puppet Czar on the throne). Abandoned by their former allies, the Imperial Loyalists sign onto an alliance with Germany: promising to export much-needed grain to A-H and Germany in exchange for arms and military support against the rebellious officers.

Thoughts on this? I imagine the Imperials would be able their Civil War in such a scenario, though "Blue" Russian forces might keep fighting in exile (Say, on the Western Front) even afterwards, in the vein of the Czech Legion
 
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Surely all 1905 does is teach the Russians a lesson, they now know that the Japanese can attack and that they can do damage. Britain is also probably in a better position to attack Russia via India than vice-versa.

Not at all. Russia learns that :

1) Japan can't do any real damage to Russia. Despite a year of effort the Japanese never seriously threatens Russia's own territory and that after the completion and double tracking of the Siberian railroad, the Japanese will be in a much worse position. In any event the far East is of secondary importance

Japan also learns that the Americans and British are fickle allies and that cooperation with Russia offers far more advantages

2) India is always more vulnerable to Russia than the reverse. The lack of a British army being a prime consideration. With the completion of the Orenburg-Tashkent railway in 1906, the Russians can move 200,000 men to Afghanistan in weeks
 
Let's say the Czar's government sends out peace feelers alot earlier: say, Rasputin has a drug-induced "holy vision" and convinces the Czar and Czarinna that they WILL lose their thrones if they don't get out of the war by, say, year's end (Or some other ominious date: let's just say its the end of 1915 for the sake of having just the right balance of CP power, remaining Imperial prestige, and internal Russian stability). While this gets support from certain elements of Russian society, others oppose it: key among them the military leaders who believe they still have a chance. Word leaks to the Entente that the secret talks are taking place, and in response they cut off Russia's credit supply and smuggle in supplies/give the green light for an attempted military coup (Say, led by Krasnov for the sake of simplicity/historical parallels). As a result, there's a split in the country: while the Duma and some of the more moderate liberals don't trust the Czar fully, they want to save their own necks and get a decent peace deal (Plus, having the Czar in their debt and the ultra-conservatives in chains would do wonders for getting their reforms passed), and so back Nicholas, while elements of the military and Pro-Entente ministers (For example, those who make their personal wealth off contracts with French or British firms) continue to fight the CP and wrestle control of Petrograd, Moscow, and other key regions from Imperial Loyalists.

That would be a strange reversal of the Russian political situation. It was the ultra-conservatives (Krasnov included) who had some Germanophile tendencies and who could maybe be inclined to support a separate deal with Germany. Not the Duma and the Russian liberals, who were distinctly pro-Entente and nationalist in a more modern sense.

Any attempt at a separate peace would, at this point, probably be received with anger and hostility. Except maybe if it's a status quo ante bellum, but the CP are extremely unlikely to offer that. So even if Rasputin somehow successfully persuades the Imperial household, Nicholas and Alexandra would be pretty much alone. There would be no major split in the political and military elites (and what little support Nicky and Alix get would be coming from the ultra-conservative fringes - if, indeed, they get any support at all).

At that point, one might expect anti-Rasputin sentiment and the "Stupidity or Treason" dynamic to explode into a minor revolution/palace coup. Nicky is forced to abdicate and replaced by a liberal-ish regency and cabinet. The new "Provisional Government" continues the war, possibly with better management. There would be no alternative regime or civil war, at least not for the time being.
 
I can Imagine Russo-German alliance-Russia and Germany did not have direct conflict of interests. But Russo-German-Austrian-Ottoman alliance?
 
I can Imagine Russo-German alliance-Russia and Germany did not have direct conflict of interests. But Russo-German-Austrian-Ottoman alliance?
The Ottomans don't have to be part of it.The On the eve of the First World War, the Ottoman Empire was in ruinous shape. As a result of successive wars fought in this period, territories were lost, the economy was in shambles and people were demoralized.They wouldn't be able to move to British colonies,but Russia was stronger and is the better choice for an alliamce.
 
Surely all 1905 does is teach the Russians a lesson, they now know that the Japanese can attack and that they can do damage. Britain is also probably in a better position to attack Russia via India than vice-versa.
Err, no, an attack from India is not viable, especially with more German forces available for the Western Front. As for the Japanese, they were only in the war for easy land grabs, and pursuing Russia would be a waste given 1905.
 
What about a change of sides in the middle of the war. Had Gallipoli worked, there is no plausible way that the RN would give up its new basing opportunity which means that there is no way an Entente Russia will (ever) get the straits......

Problem is that the Germans wanted a lot of Russian territory, if they settle for Brest Litovisk style peace (the only way I can see the Germans allowing Russia to change sides) the Russian people probably aren't going to be supporting another war against the Entente, the Tsar would be lucky to survive... Probably need to change the sides before the war.
 
Problem is that the Germans wanted a lot of Russian territory, if they settle for Brest Litovisk style peace (the only way I can see the Germans allowing Russia to change sides) the Russian people probably aren't going to be supporting another war against the Entente, the Tsar would be lucky to survive... Probably need to change the sides before the war.

You could get a Russo-German peace at the expense of France and Austria
I can Imagine Russo-German alliance-Russia and Germany did not have direct conflict of interests. But Russo-German-Austrian-Ottoman alliance?

A Russian Ottoman alliance is quite feasible. There is a defacto alliance between Sultan Abdul Hamid and the Russians from about 1881 until his overthrow. the Sultan distrusted the British more than the Russians and if Russia and Britain are in different camps, a Russo-Ottoman alliance is easy
 
You could get a Russo-German peace at the expense of France and Austria

I mean if the war has started as it did in OTL, that's probably not a thing. They joined to help Austria Hungary, they aren't turning on their allies just like that. As David T said you need a POD before the war, Russia/Germany alliance ain't impossible, but by the time the war has started, the sides are probably locked in.
 
If Russia aligns with Germany, then Russian policies in the Balkans might mean both Austria and the Ottomans align with the United Kingdom and France. Italy in this situation would also probably align with the Etente because they're surrounded on both sides by them (or might just stay neutral). Germany and Russia being arrayed against Austria-Hungry probably spells doom for them and AH may well fall first and sign a variant of Brest-Livotsk. If that happens, then Italy might jump in late in the war for a chance for Istria and start shit with France.

If the Ottomans do align with this new German-Russian alliance, then Bulgaria and Romania might side with them as well and help tear up Austria-Hungry.

What I'd be curious about is if Russia participates in any meaningful way on the Western Front after the fall of Austria-Hungary, given that that there'd be a lot of nations (America, Belgium, Britain, France and Italy) would be arrayed against lonesome Germany.
 
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