Russia in a CP Victory

[NoMommsen]

Russia is hardly invincible, it's just anything but a pushover. Russia has everything it needs to be a superpower. Russia's growing population and industrialization means Russia will become only more militarily strong over time.

... which 'Russia' are you talking about?
The several 'White's? ... in northern Russia or north of the Caucasus? ... or within the Caucasus) ... or somewhere on the way towards Siberia) ... or at least 'calling themself 'republican' factions at similar locations? ... or the Moscow region? ... or perhaps still some bolshevic factions also at similar locations?
What about the several caucasian 'republics' or regimes popping up?

Much more likely after a CP victory - however its outcome might look ITTL the OP hasn't stated (yet) - with the Baltikum states, Poland and Ukraine in one-way or another wihtin 'CP-Orbit' as well as - with the ottoman part as a means of and with and through which eventual german power can be projected into the region - the mentioned caucasian hotchpotch of new states also Russia main migth be kept divided for a loong time being a field of 'divide-et-impera-play between the several factions keeping the without a doubt existing possibilties (even through cold war and up today rather ... improvabal than well-managed exploited) of Russia and Siberia ITTL unexploited.

For the arguement of trading what 'Russia' yet can't produce by itself ... well ... forgot to mention the severeal popping up 'independant' factions in the far east possibly also under some japanese 'friendly support' quite limiting any accssess to world markets on this route.
... by the way ... what should/could such a diminished Russian or rather Russias trade with? ... and with what money ?

Russia kind of lost WW1 as is, ...

... kind of ... understatement of the month?

 

[holycookie]

Russia is hardly invincible, it's just anything but a pushover. Russia has everything it needs to be a superpower.

and today russia is a local power, having the advantages to be a superpower does not make it one, if that were the reason brazil would be one of the greatest powers in the world. The only country that so far had every chance of being a superpower and achieved the feat was the USA. All other countries that had this potential failed for various reasons, corruption, incompetence, useless elites, etc.

Russia's growing population and industrialization means Russia will become only more militarily strong over time.

The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk prevents russia from becoming something more than a great power (and that with everything working out)

Russia kind of lost WW1 as is, I don't think a proper central power victory would change things drastically.

yes it would change a lot, the ussr only became the monster with the territories that were recovered. without them the most important cities are extremely vulnerable and most resources are in the hands of others.

Russia in the first half of the twentieth century is a rapidly rising power, with a large and growing population and rapid industrialization.

Russia lost 34% of its population, 54% of its industrial land, 89% of its coalfields, and 26% of its railways.

I also stand by my point on Germany's lack of allies in a central powers victory.

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Belarus, Ukraine,(they are puppet states but under the russian command they were also, so their performance will be the same)
real allies Romania, Bulgaria, Finland, Ottoman and Austria-Hungary.

The Dual Monarchy is unstable and on the brink of collapse by the end of WW1.

If the Austro-Hungarian Empire survives ww1, the country will become the United States of Greater Austria in 10 or 20 years

The Ottoman Empire is also going to have issues, though they will now have lots of oil. I think the Ottoman Empire will likely have their hands full with internal issues and reforms. The Middle East is not necessarily going to be more stable under the Ottomans.

With the Ottomans the Russians would have another front and the Germans all the oil they want. The Ottomans in the long run are going to be very rich

 

[Lurker01]

What kind of impact does the newly formed Baltics, Belaus and Ukraine(, possibly Caucasia) have on world trade? Does Germany close off these markets?

 

[Aghasverov]

What kind of impact does the newly formed Baltics, Belaus and Ukraine(, possibly Caucasia) have on world trade? Does Germany close off these markets?

Close them off completely? No... Monopolize the grain and oil exports until a postwar recover occurs, probably... after that, the export potential would simply be too great to maintain a completely closed market....

 

[Catsmate]

Hello everyone! I'm working on a timeline of a Central Powers Victory, although the pod is at Verdun, the war would end in 1918. I won't touch on the details of the war for now though. I would like to know what your expectations of Russia are in this type of scenario. Bolsheviks win? Do whites win? How long will Russia resurface?

My take:
1. A peace in 1918 would almost certainly be a peace of exhaustion.
2. Did the Russian Revolutions happen as historically? Where are Lenin and Trotsky?I
3. Assuming there has been a revolution of some sort in Russia (almost certain) has it established peace with Germany? In what terms?
4. What about Poland, Finland, Georgia, Ukraine, the Baltics and Caucasia? Are they independently, puppetised, straps or occupied?

 

[Sturm1820]

My take:
1. A peace in 1918 would almost certainly be a peace of exhaustion.
2. Did the Russian Revolutions happen as historically? Where are Lenin and Trotsky?I
3. Assuming there has been a revolution of some sort in Russia (almost certain) has it established peace with Germany? In what terms?
4. What about Poland, Finland, Georgia, Ukraine, the Baltics and Caucasia? Are they independently, puppetised, straps or occupied?

The revolution happen like OTL and Brest-Livostk is signed. Poland, Ukraine, The Baltics and Caucasia are puppets of the CP.

 

[SuperSniperSipperSlippers]

real allies Romania, Bulgaria, Finland, Ottoman and Austria-Hungary.

That's kind of my point.

If the Austro-Hungarian Empire survives ww1, the country will become the United States of Greater Austria in 10 or 20 years

Austria-Hungary is not likely to establish a federation. The idea was just that, an idea, and there was a lot of resistance to that proposal. The Austro-Hungargian Empire even in a victory scenario, on really thin ice. It was comparable to Russia before the revolution. It is not going to be a stable country. At a fundamental level, the various nations want independence. Vienna is also unwilling to actually let them leave without a fight.

With the Ottomans the Russians would have another front and the Germans all the oil they want. The Ottomans in the long run are going to be very rich

Depends, they would have a lot of oil, but there are countries today that are quite poor despite their large oil reserves. We should not just imagine that the Ottomans would be better able to handle the political issues of the region than OTL elites. Not to mention the various genocides the Ottomans had implemented in WW1. Let's not sugarcoat just how bad of a regime they were. Not many traditional monarchies in the Middle East survived the 20th century, there is little reason to imagine the Ottomans would either.

 

[Catsmate]

The revolution happen like OTL and Brest-Livostk is signed. Poland, Ukraine, The Baltics and Caucasia are puppets of the CP.

OK, so Lenin and Trotsky are in place, that will have a significant impact.
If the Baltics (Grand Duchy?) and Caucasia are puppets then I assume Finland, Poland and Ukraine are nominally independent but German influenced.
There will be, obviously, no Polish-Soviet War, no repudiation of BL no Polish–Ukrainian War and probably Piłsudski (and the other Polish revanchists) aren't in office. This probably helps the Reds significantly. However needing to purchase oil and grain from Ukraine, rather than loot won't.
The German attitude towards the factions is a major point; I assume they'll support some elements of the "Whites", though the degree is questionable (Germans are as weary of war as everyone else) and may tolerate Entente intervention (not that that achieved much).
Will the Romanovs escape? Their chances are probably better.
Will the Reds win? Almost certainly. The Whites are divided and poorly led. However large elements may decamp to the "independent" countries surrounding the new 'Soviet Union'.
The USSR will be smaller and less self-sufficient and be hemmed in by German aligned states, so there will be longer term differences in policy and actions.

 

[Fehérvári]

Well, first of all, if the Bolsheviks have no faith in the Entente ultimately triumphing, then they would not attempt to pull the same "neither war, nor peace" scheme like they did IOTL. As such, they are likely to accept the initial German peace offers. The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk would rob Russia of Poland, Lithuania and Courland. Further loss of territory would be the eventual secession of Finland, but that's about it.

Without the OTL loss of territory, the Transcaucasian Commissariat wouldn't secede from Russia, Ukrainians would be defeated and Livonia would remain under Russian control as well. As a result, the Bolsheviks would be in a much stronger position and they would have an easier time dealing with the Whites ITTL. This coupled by the lack of Entente intervention would mean that the Russian Civil War ends significantly earlier and brings less destruction.

So contrary to the previous ideas in this thread, I actually believe that Russia would end up in a better position post-war compared to OTL.

 

[Catsmate]

Well, first of all, if the Bolsheviks have no faith in the Entente ultimately triumphing, then they would not attempt to pull the same "neither war, nor peace" scheme like they did IOTL. As such, they are likely to accept the initial German peace offers. The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk would rob Russia of Poland, Lithuania and Courland. Further loss of territory would be the eventual secession of Finland, but that's about it.

Without the OTL loss of territory, the Transcaucasian Commissariat wouldn't secede from Russia, Ukrainians would be defeated and Livonia would remain under Russian control as well. As a result, the Bolsheviks would be in a much stronger position and they would have an easier time dealing with the Whites ITTL. This coupled by the lack of Entente intervention would mean that the Russian Civil War ends significantly earlier and brings less destruction.

So contrary to the previous ideas in this thread, I actually believe that Russia would end up in a better position post-war compared to OTL.

You are probably right, if the earlier proposal was accepted.

 

[AustrianFanboy]

That's kind of my point.

Austria-Hungary is not likely to establish a federation. The idea was just that, an idea, and there was a lot of resistance to that proposal. The Austro-Hungargian Empire even in a victory scenario, on really thin ice. It was comparable to Russia before the revolution. It is not going to be a stable country. At a fundamental level, the various nations want independence. Vienna is also unwilling to actually let them leave without a fight.

Depends, they would have a lot of oil, but there are countries today that are quite poor despite their large oil reserves. We should not just imagine that the Ottomans would be better able to handle the political issues of the region than OTL elites. Not to mention the various genocides the Ottomans had implemented in WW1. Let's not sugarcoat just how bad of a regime they were. Not many traditional monarchies in the Middle East survived the 20th century, there is little reason to imagine the Ottomans would either.

You fundamentally ignore the basics of AH internal politcs.
That said you state that it is not a given that the Ottoman Empire is going to become "rich" because of the oil, but you state that Russia is "due" to become a "superpower" anyway, despite losing one third of their population, most of their strategic resources , industrial facilities, agricultural lands and their most prosper provinces...very coherent.
Also you say that France would "somehow" pull some trick out of the hat and curbstomp Germany the way they DIDN'T do OTL after winning WW1. You then proceed to state that french and British resolve would be massively augmented by the defeat, after the french have already lost several generations in a useless crusade to bring Germany down, and that they would do all the previous without resources and with a devastated industrial base.
You further assume that Germany would be isolated, despite enjoying several buffer states, that while they may be wary of German dominance, would be surely more wary of folding back into the soviet flock, while so many people would, apparently be enthusiastic to run to the aid of the soviets.
Now, I mean no offense but, considering all the previous combined, I wonder if there is at least some pro-russian bias in your previous posts. Now, since with the war in Ukraine going on, I welcome pro-russian bias as well as a stomach ulcer the day of your wedding banquet, I will refrain from further commenting, so as to not lose my temper.

 

[AustrianFanboy]

OK, so Lenin and Trotsky are in place, that will have a significant impact.
If the Baltics (Grand Duchy?) and Caucasia are puppets then I assume Finland, Poland and Ukraine are nominally independent but German influenced.
There will be, obviously, no Polish-Soviet War, no repudiation of BL no Polish–Ukrainian War and probably Piłsudski (and the other Polish revanchists) aren't in office. This probably helps the Reds significantly. However needing to purchase oil and grain from Ukraine, rather than loot won't.
The German attitude towards the factions is a major point; I assume they'll support some elements of the "Whites", though the degree is questionable (Germans are as weary of war as everyone else) and may tolerate Entente intervention (not that that achieved much).
Will the Romanovs escape? Their chances are probably better.
Will the Reds win? Almost certainly. The Whites are divided and poorly led. However large elements may decamp to the "independent" countries surrounding the new 'Soviet Union'.
The USSR will be smaller and less self-sufficient and be hemmed in by German aligned states, so there will be longer term differences in policy and actions.

Well the Germans May support some among the White factions: the Don cossacks may generate a uselful allied state, linking southern caucasus with Ukraine, eliminating the Need for seaborne supplies in and out of the region, and depriving Russia of their last fertile lands.
Everything considered, if you want to keep Russia down you Need to balkanize them, which likely enough for the Germans is feasible

 

[marathag]

Vienna is also unwilling to actually let them leave without a fight

Yet did not offer any resistance in 1918.

 

[Catsmate]

Well the Germans May support some among the White factions: the Don cossacks may generate a uselful allied state, linking southern caucasus with Ukraine, eliminating the Need for seaborne supplies in and out of the region, and depriving Russia of their last fertile lands.
Everything considered, if you want to keep Russia down you Need to balkanize them, which likely enough for the Germans is feasible

True, and of course stirring up trouble keeps 'Russia' weak and the German puppets safer and more dependent on Germany for security.
Take Ukraine and Caucasia away and 'Russia' has food and fuel problems.

 

[AustrianFanboy]

True, and of course stirring up trouble keeps 'Russia' weak and the German puppets safer and more dependent on Germany for security.
Take Ukraine and Caucasia away and 'Russia' has food and fuel problems.

Yep, exactly

 

[holycookie]

That's kind of my point.

the first war was a dispute over who led the world, the uk (then the us) or germany. With germany winning it will be the center of the world replacing uk over time. it's going to be a multipolar world instead of a duo. maybe even the imperial federation (uk + domains). It's a very different world, more socially conservative. But russia unfortunately won't be a giant like in otl it will be more a country that like spain had its glory days. A more fierce and dangerous Spain. But in the long run it would be seen as a country as unimportant in the world as France (ttl of course)

Austria-Hungary is not likely to establish a federation. The idea was just that, an idea, and there was a lot of resistance to that proposal. The Austro-Hungargian Empire even in a victory scenario, on really thin ice. It was comparable to Russia before the revolution. It is not going to be a stable country. At a fundamental level, the various nations want independence. Vienna is also unwilling to actually let them leave without a fight.

if a civil war happens, which is difficult, there will be a German intervention and the reform will be immediate and not gradual.

Depends, they would have a lot of oil, but there are countries today that are quite poor despite their large oil reserves. We should not just imagine that the Ottomans would be better able to handle the political issues of the region than OTL elites.

they have some advantages, ataturk is one of them, being victorious in war is another and obviously german support
the young Turks were an extremely modernist group and even if not all reforms occur like the end of the caliph and the replacement of the arabic language by a more western version (these two are the most unlikely to pass) the country in the long run will have a great future.
maintain the pre-war size (through reconquests or simply through wars against insurrections) they will be the Islamic power of the world. Being allied with the greatest power in the world the Germans. The Turks, Germans and Austrians will basically be linked at the waist. The Ottomans will be invited sooner or later to the German economic bloc

Not to mention the various genocides the Ottomans had implemented in WW1. Let's not sugarcoat just how bad of a regime they were.

The crimes were horrible, the ones who did deserve to burn forever.
But they on this timeline thay would continue and if Germany didn't try to stop it (which I doubt) the Arminians and other groups would basically go extinct with only the diasporas surviving. The Arabs (from the peninsula) if they resist the Ottoman government may suffer genocides especially after the Ottomans realize the level of oil there is in the region

Not many traditional monarchies in the Middle East survived the 20th century, there is little reason to imagine the Ottomans would either.

It won't be traditional, it's very likely that after Ataturk finishes the reforms, the monarch won't even be able to sign a paper without congressional authorization. It will be more symbolic than the British one . Basically it would maintain due to the great ancestors more than for its own merit (apart from the caliph's religious power)

 

[James123456]

I honestly cant see Germany intervening in the Russian Civil War as they already lost millions of soldiers. I have a hard time seeing them intervene even if the reds recapture the Ukraine, and the other territories they lost to Germany, especially with a hostile France on their border. Russia might do better ITL even if Germany defeats Russia again simply because Germany is not under the control of a genocidal maniac who wants to kill tens of millions of Russians because of … reasons. Germany would also have colonies ITL, colonies that would require a large amount of soldiers to maintain and occupy.

 

[holycookie]

I honestly cant see Germany intervening in the Russian Civil War as they already lost millions of soldiers.

I agree it's very likely that communists win like otl

I have a hard time seeing them intervene even if the reds recapture the Ukraine, and the other territories they lost to Germany, especially with a hostile France on their border.

if franca loses ww1 she will no longer be a threat. Ukraine will be the most protected country I think considering the lack of food due to the English blockade. for the reds to recapture these territories they would have to go to war with germany, they would be states of the german economic/military bloc. Considering that the Reds lost from the Poland that had just been recreated I doubt they would succeed even if the Germans get stupid and decide not to defend these countries which I highly doubt

Russia might do better ITL even if Germany defeats Russia again simply because Germany is not under the control of a genocidal maniac who wants to kill tens of millions of Russians because of … reasons. Germany would also have colonies ITL, colonies that would require a large amount of soldiers to maintain and occupy.

it's the opposite if germany is led by normal people they would be very successful. At the beginning of the invasion they had immense support from various groups such as Ukrainians. But due to Nazi insanity these groups preferred the Communists over the Nazis.

I doubt the colonies need so many men, if the colonies are controlled by Paul Emil von Lettow-Vorbeck or someone with his vision the colonies will have a "middle class" of African veterans to suppress the groups they can revolt. Unlike in America where the various groups that descend from Africans see themselves as a single group, in Africa this is a very weak concept even today. In the long run this class will be a mixture of veteran Africans and children of Germans with Africans. it is possible that the Afrikaners immigrate to this colony as well, giving more strength to the colony.