Russia Gets Finland in the Great Northern War

[Kurd Gossemer]

From what I've read about the Great Northern War, Sweden's defeat was as hard as it got without the capital being conquered and explains their massive losses and death of their empire but also that Peter I of Russia was quite the vacillating and shy thing when it came to attacking and such and that he was quite sluggish when Finland proper was invaded, refusing to annex it after the war ended.

Question is, how would things go if Peter decided he wanted not only the Baltic provinces but also Finland and also got it? How would Russia and Finland develop and how that affects Europe and the Empire as a whole in the long run?

 

[raharris1973]

great question!

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

great question!

Such a insightful answer! Many thanks!!

 

[alexmilman]

From what I've read about the Great Northern War, Sweden's defeat was as hard as it got without the capital being conquered and explains their massive losses and death of their empire but also that Peter I of Russia was quite the vacillating and shy thing when it came to attacking and such and that he was quite sluggish when Finland proper was invaded, refusing to annex it after the war ended.

So did his daughter. It seems that the attempt to establish peaceful relations with Sweden had higher priority than perspective of obtaining the territory of a questionable value even if it was securing the new capital. Only A1 finally “gave up” and even then probably because he had to improve his reputation damaged by Tilsit and, formally, he did not “annex” it but created an union. The later attempts to achieve some degree of the integration produced little but trouble.

Question is, how would things go if Peter decided he wanted not only the Baltic provinces but also Finland and also got it?

If Sweden agrees to make peace on such a condition then he gets it but this may require a longer war with all related expenses.

How would Russia and Finland develop and how that affects Europe and the Empire as a whole in the long run?

Most probably, this would be annexation and not the union. OTOH, if the Baltic provinces can be used as an example, very little would change in Finland until well into the XIX century.

For Russia this may mean avoidance of few minor wars but that’s pretty much it. The local nobility was not numerous enough to play the same role as the Baltic one and economically Finland was important mostly as a major producer of tar.
For Europe in general it would mean close to nothing and for potential impact on Sweden you can ask @von Adler. Perhaps Sweden may avoid the OTL XVIII wars with Russia but maybe not.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

So did his daughter. It seems that the attempt to establish peaceful relations with Sweden had higher priority than perspective of obtaining the territory of a questionable value even if it was securing the new capital. Only A1 finally “gave up” and even then probably because he had to improve his reputation damaged by Tilsit and, formally, he did not “annex” it but created an union. The later attempts to achieve some degree of the integration produced little but trouble.



If Sweden agrees to make peace on such a condition then he gets it but this may require a longer war with all related expenses.

Most probably, this would be annexation and not the union. OTOH, if the Baltic provinces can be used as an example, very little would change in Finland until well into the XIX century.

For Russia this may mean avoidance of few minor wars but that’s pretty much it. The local nobility was not numerous enough to play the same role as the Baltic one and economically Finland was important mostly as a major producer of tar.
For Europe in general it would mean close to nothing and for potential impact on Sweden you can ask @von Adler. Perhaps Sweden may avoid the OTL XVIII wars with Russia but maybe not.

How would it change in the 19th century then? Russification? Especially given that Finland ITTL would be annexed and treated like any other province instead of having a certain amount of autonomy like OTL.

Also I think we see Sweden essentially being thrown into a dumpster and never manage to crawl out given they wouldn't be compensated with Norway like OTL, they would essentially become a neutered country at the mercy of Russia and Denmark-Norway and most likely turn inwards earlier while the Danes and Russians monopolize the Baltic earlier.

 

[drakeVL]

if finland is annexed and treated as a province of russia
wouldnt that risk making the province majority russian by 1918 since its a pretty low population close to the capitol of russia ?
ergo no independend finland during ww1/revolution = no winter war = no public showcase of howbad russia was doing pre barbarossa
wouldnt that have affected some peoples mind like hitler etc to ?

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

if finland is annexed and treated as a province of russia
wouldnt that risk making the province majority russian by 1918 since its a pretty low population close to the capitol of russia ?
ergo no independend finland during ww1/revolution = no winter war = no public showcase of howbad russia was doing pre barbarossa
wouldnt that have affected some peoples mind like hitler etc to ?

I think it's a bit too far to speculate but I do agree that Finland would at least get a Russian minority in it and depending on how it goes, maybe even a majority

 

[alexmilman]

How would it change in the 19th century then? Russification? Especially given that Finland ITTL would be annexed and treated like any other province instead of having a certain amount of autonomy like OTL.

IMO, there is no reason to expect that the model would be different from one for the Baltic provinces which became a part of Russia but retained most of the existing system with an addition of a military administration on the top level and the Russian import/export tariffs in the port cities. The Derpt University remained exclusively German well into the XIX when some limited education in Russian had been added as an option. In Riga the Russians could not have their own businesses at least until the Napoleonic times, the nobility and guilds retained their rights, etc. In OTL A1 introduced education in the Finnish but I doubt that Peter would bother with opening university in Finland when he had problems with creating one in Russia.

Russification was mostly phenomena of the second half of the XIX.

Also I think we see Sweden essentially being thrown into a dumpster and never manage to crawl out given they wouldn't be compensated with Norway like OTL, they would essentially become a neutered country at the mercy of Russia and Denmark-Norway

When Denmark tried to attack Sweden while it was at its lowest point, the results were not very good. Russia, between the GNW and the Finnish War did not, IIRC, attack Sweden because there was no reason for doing so and the neutral status of Sweden would be the best case scenario for the RE of XVIII - XIX centuries.

and most likely turn inwards earlier while the Danes and Russians monopolize the Baltic earlier.

I disagree with this assessment. Sweden was not in a dumpster after the GNW, except for the efforts of its own ruling classes and it remained an important exporter of iron (OK, the tar will be gone). If anything, absence of the pointless wars with Russia could be better for its economy. It did not become a Great Power after union with Norway and being neutral is not a bad position for a reasonably small country.
“Monopolizing” the Baltic was a task for which none of the countries you mentioned was well-suited.

Peter tried that by the dynastic marriages and failed. After this it was rather difficult to monopolize the Baltic when you have no overwhelmingly strong navy and no merchant fleet to talk about.
Denmark had a reasonably strong navy (for a while) but, even with Norway, was not a big trading entity so it is hardly could monopolize the trade. Especially against the British interests.

The “dominant” power remained Britain: with the Netherlands being on a decline, an overwhelming majority of a cargo going in and out of the Baltic was carried by the British ships and the RN, when the need arise, was operating in the Baltic quite freely.

 

[alexmilman]

if finland is annexed and treated as a province of russia
wouldnt that risk making the province majority russian by 1918 since its a pretty low population close to the capitol of russia ?

What type of a “province”? The Baltic provinces retained a great degree of autonomy and the national majorities even if, as far as security of St.Petersburg was involved, Latvia and Estonia were much more important than Finland. 1918 is hardly relevant date because the Russian Empire already fall apart.

ergo no independend finland during ww1/revolution = no winter war = no public showcase of howbad russia was doing pre barbarossa
wouldnt that have affected some peoples mind like hitler etc to ?

With the initial premise being questionable, projections of that type are purely speculative.

 

[drakeVL]

What type of a “province”? The Baltic provinces retained a great degree of autonomy and the national majorities even if, as far as security of St.Petersburg was involved, Latvia and Estonia were much more important than Finland. 1918 is hardly relevant date because the Russian Empire already fall apart.

With the initial premise being questionable, projections of that type are purely speculative.

Isnt the whole thread purely speculatieve ?

Also i chekked and the population of Finland at the end of the great Northern war was only 330 000 Total, i dont think its that far fetched to think it wil end up as a Russian majority of big minority by 1914

And with province i meaned part of the Russian empire not a Union/duchy with autonomy

 

[alexmilman]

Isnt the whole thread purely speculatieve ?

Also i chekked and the population of Finland at the end of the great Northern war was only 330 000 Total, i dont think its that far fetched to think it wil end up as a Russian majority of big minority by 1914

Population of the whole Russian Empire was around 12-13 millions so 330,000 is not too little. Then, when exactly this population shift would going to happen? Hardly prior to the 1860s because of a shortage of the agricultural land and serfdom system and after that it is still unlikely because of the shortage of the agricultural land and an absence of a major industrial employment. Of course, nothing is definite but it is unlikely.

And with province i meaned part of the Russian empire not a Union/duchy with autonomy

The Baltic provinces had been administratively different from the Russian ones and the Russian population did not became a majority in them. As in Finland, the good agricultural lands had been pretty much used and most of the rest were the lakes, swamps, rocks and the forests.

 

[TrickyApe]

The local nobility was not numerous enough to play the same role as the Baltic one and economically Finland was important mostly as a major producer of tar.

It does sound silly but it was very high quality tar. The British tried to replace it early in the 18th century with tar from North Carolina but their colonists just couldn't produce a suitable high grade tar. Tar was important as a naval store, for sealing up ships, so the Brits were very interested in it.

In a longer term perspective, if the borders of Finland were shifted a little westward - as Alexander negotiated for in 1809 but didn't hold out for - it would include some of the big Swedish Arctic iron ore deposits developed in the late 19th century, though not any deposits being exploited in the 18th or even in 1809. That part of Sweden - Finland was pretty empty and could have gone to either country when split.

 

[Ajobek]

Difference between Finland and Baltic is ethnicity of their nobility, most of Baltic nobles were Germans and Russia did not fear about their allegiance, while in Finland they may fear that Swedish nobility will be unloyal and will try to suppress them and as result they it may cause rebellion and prove Russian fear. It all may led to replacing them with Russian nobility and overall higher Russian population in Finland.

 

[Lalli]

How would it change in the 19th century then? Russification? Especially given that Finland ITTL would be annexed and treated like any other province instead of having a certain amount of autonomy like OTL.

Finland might face some russification process but not very markable. Severe russification policy occured only just during last half of 19th century. Autonomy is indeed basically big no. Not even that level what Baltic provinces had since Swedish noble might are pretty unloyals and Sweden would be pretty vegneful.

Also I think we see Sweden essentially being thrown into a dumpster and never manage to crawl out given they wouldn't be compensated with Norway like OTL, they would essentially become a neutered country at the mercy of Russia and Denmark-Norway and most likely turn inwards earlier while the Danes and Russians monopolize the Baltic earlier.

Sweden indeed is now on weaker position. That owuld change greatly Swedish domestic politics.

if finland is annexed and treated as a province of russia
wouldnt that risk making the province majority russian by 1918 since its a pretty low population close to the capitol of russia ?

Possible but not certain. Check Baltic provinces which managed to maintain their Estonian/Latvian/Lithuanian populations.

ergo no independend finland during ww1/revolution = no winter war = no public showcase of howbad russia was doing pre barbarossa
wouldnt that have affected some peoples mind like hitler etc to ?

We speak about POD in early 18th century. That would change 20th century greatly. Even if there is some WW1 level global conflict it would be completely different from OTL.

Difference between Finland and Baltic is ethnicity of their nobility, most of Baltic nobles were Germans and Russia did not fear about their allegiance, while in Finland they may fear that Swedish nobility will be unloyal and will try to suppress them and as result they it may cause rebellion and prove Russian fear. It all may led to replacing them with Russian nobility and overall higher Russian population in Finland.

Very true. Russians might are pretty paranoid towards Swedish population.

 

[alexmilman]

Difference between Finland and Baltic is ethnicity of their nobility, most of Baltic nobles were Germans and Russia did not fear about their allegiance, while in Finland they may fear that Swedish nobility will be unloyal and will try to suppress them and as result they it may cause rebellion and prove Russian fear.

This is a valid point, at least in theory. But, AFAIK, in OTL this nobility remained quite loyal to the Russian Empire.

It all may led to replacing them with Russian nobility and overall higher Russian population in Finland.

Unlikely. This did not happen on a major scale even on the quite “disloyal” Polish territories and the region was not too attractive for the Russian nobles to look for the estate grants there. Then, again, you are talking not just about the land grants but the grants with resettlement of the serfs, which would be complicated and not profitable for the new owners. Just think about it: usual estate grant meant land with the serfs but you are talking about the schema involving (a) removal of the existing population (to where?) and (b) moving the owner’s serfs from the existing estate to a new place where the agricultural conditions are worse than in most of the European Russia. What kind of a “gift” would it be?

 

[alexmilman]

Finland might face some russification process but not very markable. Severe russification policy occured only just during last half of 19th century. Autonomy is indeed basically big no. Not even that level what Baltic provinces had since Swedish noble might are pretty unloyals and Sweden would be pretty vegneful.

Why would they be? Nobility of Finland was Swedish and they did not create any problems to the new regime in OTL. Actually, they behaved quite nicely even before the union officially happened.