Russia Does Not Send the Fleet to the Pacific

First, is there a logical mechanism by which this could happen? Was there sufficient doubt in the minds of the leaders that wold overcome the internal political imperatives?

Second, what are the consequences?

As far as ending the Russo Japanese war it seems to provide the Russians with less embarassment, but does not change much on the ground in the far east.
 
Well the Incident at Dogger Bank, could have caused a full-blown conflict between the Russians and United Kingdom. That would have terminated their plans pretty quickly.

From what I remember, the Russians had an extremely difficult time arranging for coal purchases and refueling along the route. If they had been unable to arrange for coal purchases before the 2nd Pacific Squadron departed European Russia the whole operation may have never got off the ground.
 
I think the problem here is Russian Imperial pride is on the line not just before hand but from early on in the actual fighting. It doesn't help that Japan starts by defeating the Russian Navy at Port Arthur. So Russian Imperial navy honor specifically has also been impugned.

In the end I don't think Nicolas II is going to relent once it starts off, so I think it's either remove or mitigate the reason for the war in it OTL form or have the Russians doing better in it


1). Russia get's a warm water port somewhere else, this maybe takes the edge off Russian ambition and thus Japanese/Russian confrontation enough to allow a more mutual treaty between Russia and Japan in terms of chopping up that part of the world (this POD itself is going to have big changes as there's only so many candidates for such a port)

2). Russia beat Japan by land enough to assuage hurt pride and force a vindicating peace (and access to a warm water port). I think that maybe completing the trans Siberian railway earlier, but to do so by what 10 years is I think going to take POD with Alexander III

3). maybe the Russians get a bit lucky in the earlier Naval battles, Yellow Sea looks possible?


(although I think either 2 or 3 need the other one in place, Russia beating the Japanese on land doesn't help them win and run a warm water port if the Japanese navy is still supreme in the area).



Interesting though, a win (or less of an obvious and internationally embarrassing loss) for Nicky2 might well have effects in the next decade that could be big
 
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Driftless

Donor
I believe the competent naval leadership was generally against the plan of sending portions of the Baltic and Black Seas fleets to the Pacific, but were overruled. The logistical problems alone should have been sufficient, plus the idea that the fleet would arrive on scene long overdue for comprehensive maintenance, while still expected to face a very competent foe in their backyard. The Japanese had the definite "home field" advantage. I don't know how you shift the Tsar and company off the idea of sending the fleet.

Another point to consider is how does saving the Russian European fleets impact the Russian Navy between 1905 and 1917? Wikipedia on the historic interwar period
Reconstruction prior to World War I[edit]
At the end of the Russo-Japanese War in 1905, Russia fell from being the third greatest naval power to sixth place. The focus of Russian naval activities shifted back from the Far East to the Baltic. The task of the Baltic Fleet was to defend the Baltic Sea and Saint Petersburg from the Germans.

Tsar Nicholas II created a Naval General Staff in 1906. At first, attention was directed to creation of mine-laying and a submarine fleet. An ambitious expansion program was put before the Duma in 1907-1908 but was voted down. The Bosnian Crisisof 1909 forced a strategic reconsideration, and new Gangut-class battleships, cruisers, and destroyers were ordered for the Baltic Fleet. A worsening of relations with Turkey meant that new ships including the Imperatritsa Mariya-class battleships were also ordered for the Black Sea Fleet. The total Russian naval expenditure from 1906-1913 was $519 million, in fifth place behind Britain, Germany,the United States and France.

The re-armament program included a significant element of foreign participation with several ships (including the cruiser Rurik) and machinery ordered from foreign firms. After the outbreak of World War I, ships and equipment being built in Germany were confiscated. Equipment from Britain was slow in reaching Russia or was diverted to the Western Allies' own war effort.

IF the Baltic fleet doesn't make the journey, do the Russians largely bypass updating the fleet prior to WW1?
 
First, is there a logical mechanism by which this could happen? Was there sufficient doubt in the minds of the leaders that wold overcome the internal political imperatives?

Second, what are the consequences?

As far as ending the Russo Japanese war it seems to provide the Russians with less embarassment, but does not change much on the ground in the far east.

IIRC, even before it sailed, there were strong feelings that expedition is doomed so it was quite easy not to send it. Order from Nicholas, or rather it’s absense, would suffice.


Consequences:
1. Thousands of people are not being killed.
2. Unnecessary embarrassment is avoided.
3. Russia is in a better position at Portsmouth (a possibility of sending fleet to the Pacific when Japan is running out of money and Russian reinforcements are arriving to Manchuria is a good bargaining chip).
4. Army reforms are still going to happen
5. Modernization. of the Russian navy will happen: it can’t be left lagging behind. But the older ships still could be useful for something.
 
I think the problem here is Russian Imperial pride is on the line not just before hand but from early on in the actual fighting. It doesn't help that Japan starts by defeating the Russian Navy at Port Arthur. So Russian Imperial navy honor specifically has also been impugned.

....

2). Russia beat Japan by land enough to assuage hurt pride and force a vindicating peace (and access to a warm water port). I think that maybe completing the trans Siberian railway earlier, but to do so by what 10 years is I think going to take POD with Alexander III

...

This I see as the first possibility. A bit better preparation for the war, or a bit better luck or local commanders. The Japanese land campaign ends up much less damaging to the Russian military position, & leaves the Japanese in a even more draining situation than OTL.
 
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