Russia defeated, D-Day goes ahead

Hello!☺

What would the Allies/German preparations be for D-Day if Soviet Union had been defeated in let's say 1943, obtained their resources etc.

Would it be significantly more difficult for the Allies to land in Europe now seeing as Germany will be able to focus entirely on it? What forces could they pull from the Eastern Front?

Or will it just have the same outcome as it did in 1944?.
 

Wendigo

Banned
Not familiar with the term.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/the-anglo-american-nazi-war.211950/

Also the OP was discussed thoroughly in this thread:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...de-peace-if-stalin-dropped-out-of-ww2.399353/

CalBear sums it up pretty well:

The problem with any landing in a Reich controlled Europe (although this is somewhat dependent on the sort of peace that exists in the East) is that the Heer can create a defensive belt that is close to unbreakable, assuming Hitler can be kept amused elsewhere and not divert materials for the latest Maus/Ratte/Dora Charlie Foxtrot.

At best the Allies can throw 10-12 divisions at the Continent (IOTL Overlord managed 5 divisions, the U.S. also put 3 divisions onto Saipan ten days later, so the lift could be found, especially if it happens after the end of the Pacific War) while maintaining anything close to coordinated command and control, sufficient air cover, and follow on logistics. That would be, by far, the largest landing operation ever attempted, marginally larger than the plans for Olympic, and would, with the proviso above, thrown at the most comprehensive defensive belt ever seen.

Twelve divisions sounds like a LOT of firepower, until you realize that the Heer could, without serious strain, put 50 divisions of troops into the defensive lines. Using slave labor, which is certain to be available in abundance, and the resources of the European Peninsula you can readily see just how deep a defensive belt could be, This assumes the conditions in the East are such that 35-40 divisions are sufficient to maintain whatever line the peace established with the Soviets. Moreover, a good number of the divisions manning the fixed defenses could be from Reich allies. Unlike the disaster along the Volga IOTL, the overall equipment levels of the Italians, Romanians, Czech, orHiwi units wouldn't much matter since they will mainly need small arms and 37mm & 50mm anti-tank/landing boat guns. Heavier artillery, along with mobile formations could be mainly Heer.

An additional question is just how long it would take Bomber Command and the 8th AF to obtain air supremacy if the Soviets are no longer in the war. Not only will the Reich be able to shift noteworthy, if not huge amounts of DP weaponry to the defense of Inner Germany and the Western area of Occupation but the construction of single engine fighters should be able to increase thanks to a reduction in the need for ground attack aircraft in the East (again the conditions under which the Soviets surrendered make a major difference here). Total air supremacy will be an absolute requirement, both so fighter bombers can concentrate on the "Jabo" role and to allow the safe passage of 9-10,000 ships and craft of the landing armada and uninterrupted supply of the massive force that will need to follow on the assault divisions in the following 21 days.

IMO, the ONLY way to breach the Atlantic Wall, under the condition under discussion, would be with serious use of nuclear weapons in a tactical role, not just against shore defenses, but against communication nodes. Considering the production pace of Manhattan (IOTL there were only 53 physics packages in existence at the end of 1948) it would be summer of 1947, at the earliest, that any landing could be contemplated, assuming a rather modest four weapons per divisional frontage simply to force a crack in the defensive fortifications.and 6-10 against transport nodes.

The Reich gets the Bomb? Piss on the fire and call in the dogs. The concentration of shipping is so great that a few underwater detonations would gut the landing force and its game over.

Basically Germany and the Atlantic Wall would be too powerful for the WAllies to attempt an invasion of France for several YEARS at least (if they still desired to do so after defeating Japan). The Reich would be able to station up to a million blooded troops or more in Western Europe due to no longer having to fight the Red Army.

D-Day IOTL took over a year of preparation and stockpiling while Germany and its military was broken due to years of intense warfare in the East and strategic bombing.

Imagine how many times more difficult and bloody it will be with a Germany in control of the continent and all the resources/time to complete the Atlantic Wall and move a far larger and better equipped armed force to France than existed IOTL. I doubt the Allies would even think about attempting an amphibious landing under these circumstances.

Also when you say the USSR was defeated what do you mean?

Does the Reich occupy it up to the Urals like planned or what?
 
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I agree that D-day as we know it would not happen as we know it. A big part of the scenario is just how much did Russia give up, how much does Germany and its minions have to deploy to contain the gains, and at what point did the surrender happen?
 

jahenders

Banned
Hello!☺

What would the Allies/German preparations be for D-Day if Soviet Union had been defeated in let's say 1943, obtained their resources etc.

Would it be significantly more difficult for the Allies to land in Europe now seeing as Germany will be able to focus entirely on it? What forces could they pull from the Eastern Front?

Or will it just have the same outcome as it did in 1944?.

It depends on when in '43 and on the how that defeat went down. That is, if it was a near-run thing and German forces there were largely battered in the process, it'll make less difference in the West than if Russia suddenly and completely capitulates.

In any case, if we assume that Germany defeats Russia in '43, they'll still have a lot of mopping up to do, probably into '44. They'll also need quite a few troops to occupy Russia and prevent uprisings. However, a significant number of Germans assets are certainly freed up.

The question is where they go. Some of them will definitely go West, providing stronger beach garrisons, better reserve forces, and (especially) more airpower. However, it's likely that Germany will use some of those forces elsewhere, perhaps moving into Iran, Iraq, etc. in hopes of seizing more oil and threatening either India or Egypt.

They'll get some resources out of Russia (especially oil), but not nearly as much as hoped. Conquerors can rarely develop resources as well as the nations they conquered, at least not at first. For instance, Japan never got nearly the resources they envisioned out of China, SE Asia, etc.

The allies will definitely face a tougher foe leading up to D-Day, with more German airpower and considerably more resilience to allied bombing. Resistance on D-Day, and thereafer, will be tougher as well. All told, the allies will still win, but the push into, and across France, will be bloodier and slower. Further, the W allies will have to go all the way through Germany and possibly farther East, depending on how the German forces in Poland and Russia respond to the fall of Berlin.
 
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/the-anglo-american-nazi-war.211950/

Also the OP was discussed thoroughly in this thread:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...de-peace-if-stalin-dropped-out-of-ww2.399353/

CalBear sums it up pretty well:



Basically Germany and the Atlantic Wall would be too powerful for the WAllies to attempt an invasion of France for several YEARS at least (if they still desired to do so after defeating Japan). The Reich would be able to station up to a million blooded troops or more in Western Europe due to no longer having to fight the Red Army.

D-Day IOTL took over a year of preparation and stockpiling while Germany and its military was broken due to years of intense warfare in the East and strategic bombing.

Imagine how many times more difficult and bloody it will be with a Germany in control of the continent and all the resources/time to complete the Atlantic Wall and move a far larger and better equipped armed force to France than existed IOTL. I doubt the Allies would even think about attempting an amphibious landing under these circumstances.

Also when you say the USSR was defeated what do you mean?

Does the Reich occupy it up to the Urals like planned or what?

Sorry forgot to make it abit more clearer, I don't know really, wouldn't they collapse if they lost too much ground? And yeah upto the Urals.
 
Sorry forgot to make it abit more clearer, I don't know really, wouldn't they collapse if they lost too much ground? And yeah upto the Urals.

Russia and Stalin lost a LOT of ground in 1941 and did not give up. They would not just give up in 1943 without some major happening.
 

Wendigo

Banned
Russia and Stalin lost a LOT of ground in 1941 and did not give up. They would not just give up in 1943 without some major happening.
Stalin could die or Stalingrad could fall leading to massive purges and a civil war (AANW).
 

Deleted member 1487

How plausible do you think that scenario is?
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/no-kalinin-diversion-during-operation-taifun.376135/

Apparently von Bock was not a fan of the operation, but got talked into it by a subordinate, so is not that hard for him to say no and send 3rd Panzer Army straight at Moscow instead of Kalinin, leaving 9th army to hold the flank. It is plausible that it could happen that way and given the lack of reserves behind the Soviet 16th army, the better quality highway than the road the Kalinin via Rzhev, and the level of air support given the 3rd Panzer in October I don't see why they couldn't break through the weak 16th army and make it to Moscow during the Moscow Panic around October 16th. If Stalin opts to stay he could get killed in the fighting or if not he flees during a swift evacuation to Kubyishev, which undermines Soviet command at a critical moment (the reason he stayed IOTL). Something like half of Moscow was prepared to flee if the Germans made it to the city, so it would collapse Soviet logistics and force any coordinated counterattack back by months.
 

Deleted member 1487

What's your response to the OP?
Hello!☺

What would the Allies/German preparations be for D-Day if Soviet Union had been defeated in let's say 1943, obtained their resources etc.

Would it be significantly more difficult for the Allies to land in Europe now seeing as Germany will be able to focus entirely on it? What forces could they pull from the Eastern Front?

Or will it just have the same outcome as it did in 1944?.
1943 is too late for that to happen with any hope of changing anything, so things would have to change as early as Barbarossa for the Germans to get access to Soviet resources by 1943. It would effectively mean taking Moscow in 1941, probably killing Stalin, and touching off a power struggle to replace him while the state unravels, leaving the Soviet military effectively a set a warlords controlling local fiefdoms by 1942, which the Germans systematically sweep up so they get access to Ukrainian resources in 1942 after repairs, same with the bauxite from Tikhvin, and being able to ship oil via the Black Sea to Romania from Maykop and perhaps Grozny in 1943 after repairs, but Baku is bombed by the British from Iran and perhaps the Caucasus turns into an active front as the Wallies fight to control Caucasian resources and get in range of bombing Maykop.
Rump Russia probably falls into starvation in 1942-43 and LL is cut, so the US and UK military has more equipment for the equivalent of 60 divisions from 1942-45. They also have a lot more shipping and naval assets without having to supply the USSR. Given the collapse of the USSR the Wallies focus on the Mediterranean and strategic bombing to wear down the Germans before perhaps invading in 1945. I doubt D-day would happen in 1944 ITTL. By 1945 even with Hitler demobilizing 50 divisions from the East for industry and move manpower to the Luftwaffe the Luftwaffe would be beaten and German critical industries broken. French infrastructure would also be shattered as would German, so getting even the best German armored divisions and all the possible FLAK assets to the landing zones in France would probably not work that well. A beachhead would be hemmed in for a while, but strategic bombing would make any 'Atlantic Wall' a forelorne hope, Germany cities and rail would still be shattered and even if industry were moved East (and production disrupted) or underground the bombing of rail and mining of the Rhein and Danube would collapse German infrastructure as per OTL in 1945. It would be a lot more costly and the war might go into 1946, but bombing of rail and use of airpower on a scale unseen even IOTL WW2, plus a larger US army and use of nukes in Europe would defeat the Germans probably in 1946, though lingering elements of the Nazis holdouts in the East might force operations even into 1947 in Ukraine.
 
Wiking's post makes sense. A POD in 1943 seems just too late for drop out unless something major happened.
 

Wendigo

Banned
Wiking's post makes sense. A POD in 1943 seems just too late for drop out unless something major happened.
The OP doesn't specify but we should for the sake of argument assume that "something major happened" so we can continue discussion about what the Allies would do if the USSR was knocked out of the war and occupied to the Urals.
 
Ok, if Russia drops out/surrenders, just how much do they give up? Does Japan try to grab territory if the Soviet armies in the East are pulled away? How much resistance might still be ongoing in the newly captured territory? This could be factors with how many men and planes could be shifted to the West.
 

Wendigo

Banned
Ok, if Russia drops out/surrenders, just how much do they give up? Does Japan try to grab territory if the Soviet armies in the East are pulled away? How much resistance might still be ongoing in the newly captured territory? This could be factors with how many men and planes could be shifted to the West.
OP only specified that Germany now owns everything up to the Urals.
 
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