Russia as the Victim of 9/11

What if Russia was the victim of September 11th Terrorist Attacks instead of the United States? I think the POD would require Dubya not winning the election of 2000. Part of Osama bin-Laden's motivation to perform 9/11 was alleged United States support of Russian "atrocities against Muslims" in Chechnya and more importantly, Osama bin-Laden personally disliked Bush. Russia has no entrance to Afghanistan, unless the Central Asian states open their borders. If they do open their borders and Russia invades Afghanistan, I think we'd see Part Two of 1979; except Russia wouldn't be propping up a communist government. An Invasion of Afghanistan takes away resources from Chechnya.
 
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Well for one thing, it wouldn't be called 9/11 assuming somehow terrorists plotted the attack at the exact same date as OTL. Post-Soviet Russia with its extreme mafia-capitalist economy would definitely perform a more extreme version of what the United States would do. Anti-Islam would be even more prominent in Russia than it is now which is saying something.

In the US, reactionary policies and groups such as the Tea Party may not be come up and we would see the continuation of the 90s.

Canada MAY see Harper out sooner. And get a Liberal sooner too.

The European continent is mixed. Refugees + Terrorist on European soil does not equate too well and may flatter with far-right to centre-right parties such as Front National, NDP, &c.

This is my speculation, feel free to criticise and correct me as much as you please. :)
 
Russia has no entrance to Afghanistan, unless the Central Asian states open their borders. An Invasion of Afghanistan takes away resources from Chechnya.
That might be a good thing, as invading Afghanistan doesn't actually bring any benefit.

It seems odd to say, but the response might actually be pretty subdued despite the huge tragedy. The Chechen war intensifies, an intelligence manhunt for OBL begins, but they aren't going to be invading anybody. 9/11 becomes just yet another on the long list of tragedies, atrocities, and insults carried upon the Russian state by outsiders, as said by Russian state media. The Muslim states of Central Asia might feel a bit of influence and pressure to not offend the Russian Federation in any way in the near future though.

The Russian government rams through the Duma massive funding for the military and intelligence services, likely more than they know what to do with besides siphoning a bit (a lot) off the top. Alternatively a smart Russian government could also use this is catalyst to ram through military reforms and purges virtually unquestioned.

Rapprochement with the west might be possible, but equally likely for the west to shrug and think no skin off my nose. Europe is likely to be sympathetic, but it's hard to understand the scale of the threat if it's not directly in your face.

America still seems likely to invade Iraq in a preemptive war at the urging of the Rumsfeld-Cheney clique, without the diversion of Afghanistan.
 
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How much would the Russians go after the Taliban and Osama? Might they be willing to inflict a lot more civilian casualties to get their targets?
 
I think the POD would require Dubya not winning the election of 2000.

i'm no fan of George W. Bush, but his election is almost certainly irrelevant to Al-Qaeda's decision to conduct the attacks--it would have happened regardless and, frankly, Dubya just had the misfortune of being POTUS at the time
 
Well they'd be "9/11 level attacks", not "9/11"; what targets could AQ hit that would put casualties in the thousands?

Moscow in general. frankly, it'd probably be a "more conventional" terrorist attack in this case: agents going to strategic high-traffic locations throughout the city and, depending on the conditions, conducting different types of attacks--open-air, above-ground sites like Red Square would get bombings while enclosed areas like the Metro would be subjected to chemical weapons much like Aum Shinrikyo's sarin attacks. the only difference i can realistically see to a "typical" terrorist attack are still the use of planes. the Kremlin would probably be one of the specific targets, and maybe St. Basil's for the symbolic value.
 
It seems odd to say, but the response might actually be pretty subdued despite the huge tragedy. The Chechen war intensifies, an intelligence manhunt for OBL begins, but they aren't going to be invading anybody.
If the intelligence are able to trace OBL to Abbottabad, they can do nothing, because Russia shares no border with A-stan or Pakistan. Any incident ironically draws Pakistan closer to the US.
 
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If the intelligence are able to trace OBL to Abbottabad, they can do nothing, because Russia shares no border with A-stan or Pakistan. Any incident ironically draws Pakistan closer to the US.

i wouldn't say Russia would be unable to act if Bin Laden was traced to Pakistan--i mean, the US doesn't share any borders with Iraq, Afghanistan, or Pakistan either unless you count water and that kind of thing never really stopped anyone from invading anyone before. a Geronimo-like strike against Bin Laden would probably play out recognizably similarly to OTL, probably amounting to either a flight south out of Siberia (less likely) or north from the Indian Ocean via the Russian navy if they would be completely unable to enter Pakistan's borders on the ground
 
If the intelligence are able to trace OBL to Abbottabad, they can do nothing, because Russia shares no border with A-stan or Pakistan. Any incident ironically draws Pakistan closer to the US.

Since 1993 Russia has a military base in Tajikistan, so getting to Afganistan is no problem.
 
Would be interesting to see if other bombings, like in Madrid and London still happened. That could trigger a wave of sympathy toward Russia and getting Europe and Russia closer
 
Russia has no entrance to Afghanistan, unless the Central Asian states open their borders.

Would any of the central Asian states be willing to say no to Russia after a 9/11 scale incident? (and would the Russians really accept no anyway?)
 
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