I do appreciate the speculation guys but we are not talking about a situation the POD being 1796 but 1782 so a little different.
Let me set the stage a little, Since I am looking for this in respect to the situation of my TL. France has gone through a revolution several counter coups and has basically settled on a COnstitutional Monarchy with a Minor Louis XVII as king and Lafayette, Napoleon, and Talleyrand being his guardians/regents (his brother's uncles launched coups and were guillotined, his nephews are under benevolent house arrest). Meanwhile seeing France in a weakened state Austria and Spain support these coups and get defeated (Spain is intriguing in America as well, but check the TL for the that, No Spoilers
). So as of 1800 France has turned back both Spain and Austria and is currently rebuilding and overcoming a decade of war. In that situation, with Paul I as emperor (why would he still be assassinated with a POD 14 years previous?) would it be likely for these two powers to ally and stick it to the Austrians? Is this in the interest of Regency France?
If you have questions regarding the TL please ask or by all means read it (it is quite good if I do say so
). Thanks for the comments