Russia after victory in WW1

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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I do see the great game continuing between Britain and Russia though and I'd imagine proxy conflicts to arise across central Asia.

Doesn't the Anglo-Russian Convention of 1907 satisfy both sides?
IMO they would be too busy with the after-effects of the war to re-start the rivalry in Asia.

Japan is interesting in this scenario, would Tsarist' Russia's policy be different from that of the USSR in regards to China?

Yes, very different.
The USSR supported the new Republic of China.
The Russian Empire was tied to the Japanese Empire in the North-East of the former Qing Empire and would oppose a restoration of the authority of Chinese government in the Russo-Japanese influence zones.
 
Okay let's go through this

What happens to the German Navy? Is it partitioned by the three powers (very likely) or given to Britain (rather unlikely). Or do the Germans get to keep it? In the latter case it effectively goes to Russia as the master of the continent

Yes, the British Empire is effectively helpless- the situation created is this- France cannot stand up to Germany on its own. The only power capable of protecting France from Germany is Russia- her old and faithful ally. The Franco-Russian alliance survives

What about Germany? Obviously the old ally Austria is gone and wasn't much help in any event. Germany can beat France but can't beat Russia (freed of Austria) and certainly not a Franco-Russian assault. Britain can offer no real help to a massive land invasion by France and Russia. Germany will seek to be a partner in a Continental alliance with France and Russia. Russia will accept this with open arms because it gives Russia what it has always dreamed of- the ability to destroy the British Empire for good

The British can't enforce any of the treaty clauses against Germany. They don't in our time and there isn't much they can do to Germany if Russia keeps the land border open

Basically- Germany becomes the junior partner of Russia and the two push France to agree. Not that there's any reason for the French to be reluctant. The British are useless allies and just ten years earlier were looking to Germany to attack (or at least threaten France). No love at all and then there's Fashoda, the Seven Years War, the Napoleonic and Revolutionary Wars ad nausem. Only the fear of Germany got France to look to Britain.

But if the choice is Russia or Britain, France will in this situation chose Russia. Not only is she safe from Germany, but can share in the spoils of the British Empire.

Call it peace at the expense of Britain- the continent paying the British back for every war since Henry the 8th

This is quite correct.

You would have some kind of wings alliance between France and Russia dominating the european continent. That was the strategy revolutionary-napoleonic France tried to implement until it derailed because new tsar Alexander did not want it and wanted war, war and war again against revolutionary France, leading Napoleon to conquer hegemony over most of the continent until he overstretched and lost everything.
The difference being that in your scenario, Russia would be the major power.

The point is that nobody would want such situation where Russia alone is the master of war and peace on the continent. Especially not Britain who may engineer a reversal of alliances, forcing some kind of Locarno compact between France and Germany in order to contain Russia in Europe.
 
Wait, Grand Duke Paul Alexandrovich? Isn't it more likely that Michael would succeed Nicky directly?
Grand Duke Michael was apolitical with a complicated love life that caused scandal. Uncle Nick OTOH was highly political and had many friends in the Duma but was childless. Stone claims that there were intrigues to get Uncle Nick made Tsar which is one reason Tsar Nicholas dismissed him and sent him off to the Caucasian Front.
 
The goals expressed by Russia in September 1914 suggest that Schleswig-Holstein would be returned to Denmark. Also, A-H was supposed to sort of survive as a confederation of Austria, Hungary and Bohemia, with Romanian and south Slavic parts detached to join Romania and Serbia. Apparently there was also an idea to restore the Kingdom of Hanover, not sure if it was supposed to be a part of a federal Germany or a state of its own.

Of course by 1917 at least some of this is bound to change.
 

Deleted member 1487

The goals expressed by Russia in September 1914 suggest that Schleswig-Holstein would be returned to Denmark. Also, A-H was supposed to sort of survive as a confederation of Austria, Hungary and Bohemia, with Romanian and south Slavic parts detached to join Romania and Serbia. Apparently there was also an idea to restore the Kingdom of Hanover, not sure if it was supposed to be a part of a federal Germany or a state of its own.

Of course by 1917 at least some of this is bound to change.
Do you have a source for that? I haven't read about Russian war goals like that before.
 
Grand Duke Michael was apolitical with a complicated love life that caused scandal. Uncle Nick OTOH was highly political and had many friends in the Duma but was childless. Stone claims that there were intrigues to get Uncle Nick made Tsar which is one reason Tsar Nicholas dismissed him and sent him off to the Caucasian Front.
Ah, I see; I still think Mike is more likely to directly succeed Nicky, since the Tsar had issues with his uncle and chose his brother otl, but I see your point.
 
Do you have a source for that? I haven't read about Russian war goals like that before.

Here (JSTOR) is an article about Sazonov's 12 (13) points.

The points dealing with territorial changes in Europe are as follows:

3. Russia will annex the lower course of the Niemen River and the eastern portion of Galicia; it will also annex to the kingdom of Poland eastern Posen, southern Silesia, and the western portion of Galicia;
4. France will regain Alsace-Lorraine, and, if it so desires, a portion of the Prussian Rhineland and of the Palatinate;
5. Belgium will receive a significant territorial increase in the vicinity of Aix-la-Chapelle;
6. Denmark will regain Schleswig-Holstein;
7. The Kingdom of Hanover will be restored;
8. Austria will be divided into a tripartite monarchy, comprised of the empire of Austria, the kingdom of Bohemia, and the Kingdom of Hungary; the Austrian empire will include only its hereditary provinces, the kingdom of Bohemia will be comprised of present-day Bohemia as well as Slovakia, and the Hungarian kingdom will have to reach an understanding with Romania concerning Transylvania;
9. Serbia will annex Bosnia, Herzegovina, Dalmatia, and the northern portion of Albania;
10. Bulgaria will receive from Serbia territorial compensation in Macedonia;
11. Greece will annex the southern portion of Albania, with the exception of Valona, which will fall to Italy;


There seems to be some confusion around them, as apparently these points were not directly composed by Sazonov, but by the French ambassador as a summary of Sazonov's views. So they weren't 100% official but they still make an useful guideline.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Yes lets



If the German Navy is not Partitioned then WW1 does not end!

Why does it have to partitioned or given to Britain? It might very well sell to Kronstadt and surrender to the Russians- after all, the Russians are more of a threat to Berlin than the British

The British Army has a rather powerful and well equipped continental field army in Germany in 1919 OTL- no reason to suspect that the same is not true in this ATL - thats a pretty good indication of what it can and cannot do.

This same army had fought side by side with France for 3+ years

But we're ending the war in 1917 not 1919. Besides, where are the British going to get stationed. France won't want them on the continent. Then France would have to fear an Anglo-German attack. That's really going to get the French in the bears embrace

Lets face it - If Russia becomes the new dominant force in Europe then Britain, France, Italy (and possibly even Turkey/Ottoman Empire?) and likely Japan (Dependng on the Stance of the USA) form a New Entente
Okay this isn't going to work for some rather obvious reasons. The first being Germany is keeping an army in the field. One strong enough to pose a threat to France. So France is going to have to chose between Russia and Britain. If she chooses Britain, the Russians amuse themselves by occupying the Balkans and leaving the Anglo-French to deal with Germany on their own

That didn't work out to well in WWI and with the Russian border open for trade the embargo/blockade is a rather silly exercise

Which everyone can see - so everyone allies with Russia in the hope that they get eaten last?

Nah - not happening

Well, I dunno- everyone lined up with Napoleon rather than being eaten. Besides, Russia is offering to partition the British Empire- that's a tasty snack




No - Germany is defanged - at least in the 20s - France along with Britian and Italy (who have far more in common with each other than with Russia) form the Nucleus of a new Entente - which check mates any Russian influence in Germany.

Really? The Italians debate for years whether they should fight France or Austria. With Austria gone and the Anglo-French being greedy as always, the Italians won't see much need to back the Anglo-French even if by some miracle you get the French to throw their lot in with the British
 
Why does it have to partitioned or given to Britain? It might very well sell to Kronstadt and surrender to the Russians- after all, the Russians are more of a threat to Berlin than the British

Couple things here:

1) Britain carried the lions share of the naval war so they would expect quite a bit of the former High Seas Fleet to go to them at the negotiating table. This really wasn't contested OTL and I can't see any power contesting it here.

2) The Germans were about as likely to sail the High Seas Fleet to Kronstadt as they were to sail it to Cherbourg. They would be loath to deliver it into the hands of their enemies. The sailors themselves are another problem.

3) The officers and enlisted men of the fleet who were already pretty bitter about their limited role in the war OTL are going to be just as likely, if not more, to scuttle their ships to spite the victors. There has to be a very compelling reason to not do so.

But we're ending the war in 1917 not 1919. Besides, where are the British going to get stationed. France won't want them on the continent. Then France would have to fear an Anglo-German attack. That's really going to get the French in the bears embrace

Why on God's green earth would France suddenly be afraid of an Anglo-German attack? Germany has most likely largely been defanged and the British and French colonial spheres of influence are already established. There would be no reason for either side to antagonize each other.

God only knows why France would even think that's a good idea, the didn't OTL.

Well, I dunno- everyone lined up with Napoleon rather than being eaten. Besides, Russia is offering to partition the British Empire- that's a tasty snack

I think that seven coalitions against Napoleon speaks against the idea of Europe lining up with Napoleon rather nicely.

Though I would be thrilled to hear how Russia plans on partitioning the British Empire when her internal problems and poor industry aren't even up to snuff.

even if by some miracle you get the French to throw their lot in with the British

The miracle on the Marne seemed to do it OTL.
 
Russia will be better off, but is still going to have to face a lot of problems even in victory. Nicholas wasn't suited to be ruler for a start. In the peace though, I can see them getting rights to go through the Straits, but Britain and France aren't going to want to want to hand over Constantinople to them and Russia doesn't have the capability to capture it. They'll be getting Poland for sure and a fair portion of Austro-Hungary's domains. In the aftermath though, Russia is going to have to spend time inwardly to decide on what to do with the aftermath.

I suspect that Russia will take some years stabalising its new gains, but political discord isn't going to be too far behind. With the war won, you're going to see people wanting rewards for that, whether through land or greater rights.
I do see the great game continuing between Britain and Russia though and I'd imagine proxy conflicts to arise across central Asia. Japan is interesting in this scenario, would Tsarist' Russia's policy be different from that of the USSR in regards to China?
Lets face it - If Russia becomes the new dominant force in Europe then Britain, France, Italy (and possibly even Turkey/Ottoman Empire?) and likely Japan (Dependng on the Stance of the USA) form a New Entente
An interesting image...
 
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