Russia after victory in WW1

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
  • Start date

Deleted member 1487

What if as a consequence of a better planned 1916 set of offensives the Russians are able to keep the Germans pinned down as they finish off A-H forces in Galicia in conjunction with Romanian entry, forcing them to fall back into Hungary and basically collapsing the CPs by early 1917? So Germany sues for peace after A-H pretty much falls apart and the front is unhinged agreeing to give up A-L in the west, Posen and Polish Upper Silesia in the East (but not the Polish corridor). Galicia goes to Russia too, Hungary and Austria a broken apart, Czecho-Slovakia is created, Romania gets its historical cut of Hungary, Yugoslavia is created, Austria is created as per OTL, Italy gets South Tyrol, Bulgaria is treated as per OTL. Germany has to pay reparations, but less than IOTL. It doesn't lose Schleswig-Holstein or Eupen-Maledy and doesn't sabotage land as it retreats from France. The German navy is heavily restricted, but the army is not, but has to turn over major amounts of weapons.
The Ottomans are reduced to what they hold in 1917, but not picked apart as per OTL.

So in the wake of Russia holding on and being part of victory, Nicholas not being toppled due to the success of 1916, and then being part of the peace deal what happens in terms of the post-war power structure with Russia being victorious? Everyone hasn't taken OTL levels of damage in 1917-18, the US never got involved, the expenses and unsecured loans of 1917-18 are not taken on and Germany isn't as badly treated. They are still occupied and forced to pay reparations, but with France not as badly destroyed its not as much, but the Russians get a cut ITTL. Also Russia holds on to Poland and loses no territory, rather it gains land from the Habsburgs that it needs to find a way to parse.

How do the French, British, and Russians then all react to the CPs being effectively destroyed, Germany being completely isolated and pinned down, with wealth being extracted from it, losing all colonies, and occupied? Does Russia then grow to be the greatest threat to British interests? Do the French and Russian maintain their alliance? Can Russia politically hold together or does it get into trouble as ethnic minorities like the Poles and Ukrainians clash over Galicia and demand autonomy? Does Nicholas allow reform? How long before Germany is rehabilitated and what then?
 
The Ottomans are reduced to what they hold in 1917, but not picked apart as per OTL.
A non-starter. Russia wanted Constantinople, the French had interests in the Leveant and the British would want their cut. In addition, there is an Arab revolt and the Greeks were prepared to make a land grab in Ionia.

Can Russia politically hold together or does it get into trouble as ethnic minorities like the Poles and Ukrainians clash over Galicia and demand autonomy? Does Nicholas allow reform? How long before Germany is rehabilitated and what then?
Without a protector and/or chaos due to a civil war the minorities would think twice about revolting. No reason though why nationalist fever would not increase.
 

Deleted member 1487

A non-starter. Russia wanted Constantinople, the French had interests in the Leveant and the British would want their cut. In addition, there is an Arab revolt and the Greeks were prepared to make a land grab in Ionia.


Without a protector and/or chaos due to a civil war the minorities would think twice about revolting. No reason though why nationalist fever would not increase.
So what do you propose instead for the Ottomans? What happens with Slavic minorities then?
 
What if as a consequence of a better planned 1916 set of offensives the Russians are able to keep the Germans pinned down as they finish off A-H forces in Galicia in conjunction with Romanian entry, forcing them to fall back into Hungary and basically collapsing the CPs by early 1917? So Germany sues for peace after A-H pretty much falls apart and the front is unhinged agreeing to give up A-L in the west, Posen and Polish Upper Silesia in the East (but not the Polish corridor). Galicia goes to Russia too, Hungary and Austria a broken apart, Czecho-Slovakia is created, Romania gets its historical cut of Hungary, Yugoslavia is created, Austria is created as per OTL, Italy gets South Tyrol, Bulgaria is treated as per OTL. Germany has to pay reparations, but less than IOTL. It doesn't lose Schleswig-Holstein or Eupen-Maledy and doesn't sabotage land as it retreats from France. The German navy is heavily restricted, but the army is not, but has to turn over major amounts of weapons.
The Ottomans are reduced to what they hold in 1917, but not picked apart as per OTL.

So in the wake of Russia holding on and being part of victory, Nicholas not being toppled due to the success of 1916, and then being part of the peace deal what happens in terms of the post-war power structure with Russia being victorious? Everyone hasn't taken OTL levels of damage in 1917-18, the US never got involved, the expenses and unsecured loans of 1917-18 are not taken on and Germany isn't as badly treated. They are still occupied and forced to pay reparations, but with France not as badly destroyed its not as much, but the Russians get a cut ITTL. Also Russia holds on to Poland and loses no territory, rather it gains land from the Habsburgs that it needs to find a way to parse.

How do the French, British, and Russians then all react to the CPs being effectively destroyed, Germany being completely isolated and pinned down, with wealth being extracted from it, losing all colonies, and occupied? Does Russia then grow to be the greatest threat to British interests? Do the French and Russian maintain their alliance? Can Russia politically hold together or does it get into trouble as ethnic minorities like the Poles and Ukrainians clash over Galicia and demand autonomy? Does Nicholas allow reform? How long before Germany is rehabilitated and what then?

I take it this leads to a white victory in any subsequent struggle with the Reds.

In that case I think the Tzar has to reform in order to keep his country intact - certainly in the long run.

With the above I can see the 'peace' generally being better for everyone.

With a softer peace things should be better for post war Germany meaning 'less' chance of extremist groups gaining any power.
 

Deleted member 1487

I take it this leads to a white victory in any subsequent struggle with the Reds.

In that case I think the Tzar has to reform in order to keep his country intact - certainly in the long run.

With the above I can see the 'peace' generally being better for everyone.

With a softer peace things should be better for post war Germany meaning 'less' chance of extremist groups gaining any power.
Would there even be a white-red divide here? Germany quits before Lenin is even able to be moved to Russia. There is no overthrow of the government in late 1916 and no provisional government.

Wouldn't Russia start to feel its oats and come into conflict with the Brits over their cut of the Ottomans, perhaps more military expansion down the road, and start potentially expanding their Black Sea fleet into something threatening in the Mediterranean?
 
Would there even be a white-red divide here? Germany quits before Lenin is even able to be moved to Russia. There is no overthrow of the government in late 1916 and no provisional government.

Wouldn't Russia start to feel its oats and come into conflict with the Brits over their cut of the Ottomans, perhaps more military expansion down the road, and start potentially expanding their Black Sea fleet into something threatening in the Mediterranean?

If they did then I doubt it would be straight away

See what the WNT and other treaties get them first
 
I guess same POD, but potentially different peace deal.
OK, so short version -- Brusilov Offensive is more successful, leading to an Entente victory before a February Revolution can happen; what happens in Russia next?

The first thing I think we need to determine is whether there is still going to be a revolution of some sort or if Nicholas is still going to abdicate at some point. If our goal here is to preserve the Russian monarchy, and potentially the Tsarist autocracy, then the sooner Michael takes over the better.
 

Deleted member 1487

OK, so short version -- Brusilov Offensive is more successful, leading to an Entente victory before a February Revolution can happen; what happens in Russia next?

The first thing I think we need to determine is whether there is still going to be a revolution of some sort or if Nicholas is still going to abdicate at some point. If our goal here is to preserve the Russian monarchy, and potentially the Tsarist autocracy, then the sooner Michael takes over the better.
Well with the victory Nicholas is shored up in terms of legitimacy, so any changes in terms of policy is going to come post-war when the Poles demand Galicia and autonomy, while the Ukrainians demand Galicia and privileges, there is a huge veteran population, destruction of land and property during the war, the need to occupy parts of Germany, a plan to deal with the disabled, political unrest, etc.
 
So what do you propose instead for the Ottomans? What happens with Slavic minorities then?
It might not matter to be honest. In OTL a much more defeated Turkey had the capacity to ignore the peace treaty and give the Entente a punch in the face without repercussions.

Though in TTL you also have the threat of the Russians holding a front open in Armenia (which is definitely a wargoal), they might not be too enthusiastic about supporting their allies in the case of British 'international zone' double dealing.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Your peace arrangement leaves the Germans able to crush France but standing no chance against a Franco-Russian coalition

Basically, your making the Russians the masters of Europe- France will never abandon Germany and Germany will do Russian bidding

With the reparations money (Britain isn't going to be able to collect its share nor enforce the naval clauses), France and Russia rebuild their navies (Russia is aided by not having to defend against the now dissolved Austrians)

By 1920 (assuming the British somehow avoid the Russians getting hold of the Austrian and German navies), the Franco-Russians are able to take out the British and the Japanese.

No matter what, France is never going to abandon Russia in this situation. Britain says good bye to India and Africa, Japan says hello to a Romanov protectorate

The Russians have money pouring into their coffers and the people live very well and support the autocracy
 
Your peace arrangement leaves the Germans able to crush France but standing no chance against a Franco-Russian coalition

Basically, your making the Russians the masters of Europe- France will never abandon Germany and Germany will do Russian bidding

With the reparations money (Britain isn't going to be able to collect its share nor enforce the naval clauses), France and Russia rebuild their navies (Russia is aided by not having to defend against the now dissolved Austrians)

By 1920 (assuming the British somehow avoid the Russians getting hold of the Austrian and German navies), the Franco-Russians are able to take out the British and the Japanese.

No matter what, France is never going to abandon Russia in this situation. Britain says good bye to India and Africa, Japan says hello to a Romanov protectorate

The Russians have money pouring into their coffers and the people live very well and support the autocracy

Hang on a minute - I had to read this through 3 times - you have completely lost me

Why does Russia get hold of Germany's Navy? Surely it goes to Scapa flow as their is no other Jailer than the Royal Navy?

Does it not get split between the Entente? Italy, France, Great Britain and Russia (I am assuming that the US did not jump in?) - Assuming the Germans don't scuttle!

And how does Russia (and to that End France) with no blue water navy to speak of or operational experience suddenly 'take out the British and Japanese - who are in 1920 the Biggest and 3 biggest Navy's on the planet.

And Britain has a wonderfully trained and equipped continental army that it can move anywhere in the world if faced with such an 'unexpected' threat

The British Empire is hardly defenceless!

And how/why is France suddenly seeking to destroy Britain? One would have thought it had enough problems recovering from WW1

Granted Russia now holds the balance of power in Europe - at least for now.
 
Is the Russian railroad network going to be able to distribute food in the winter of 1917-1918? I still see some form of trouble with the Bolsheviks and SR as allies. I am intrigued by the possibility here that Nicholas will be deposed and replaced by his uncle who then acknowledges limits to the Tsar's power (and recognizes Michael as his successor)

Ironically something similar may play out in Germany with Wilhelm being pressured into abdicating with his son reluctantly granting the Reichstag the power to pick its own chancellor.
 
Is the Russian railroad network going to be able to distribute food in the winter of 1917-1918? I still see some form of trouble with the Bolsheviks and SR as allies. I am intrigued by the possibility here that Nicholas will be deposed and replaced by his uncle who then acknowledges limits to the Tsar's power (and recognizes Michael as his successor)
Wait, Grand Duke Paul Alexandrovich? Isn't it more likely that Michael would succeed Nicky directly?
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Hang on a minute - I had to read this through 3 times - you have completely lost me

Why does Russia get hold of Germany's Navy? Surely it goes to Scapa flow as their is no other Jailer than the Royal Navy?

Does it not get split between the Entente? Italy, France, Great Britain and Russia (I am assuming that the US did not jump in?) - Assuming the Germans don't scuttle!

And how does Russia (and to that End France) with no blue water navy to speak of or operational experience suddenly 'take out the British and Japanese - who are in 1920 the Biggest and 3 biggest Navy's on the planet.

And Britain has a wonderfully trained and equipped continental army that it can move anywhere in the world if faced with such an 'unexpected' threat

The British Empire is hardly defenceless!

And how/why is France suddenly seeking to destroy Britain? One would have thought it had enough problems recovering from WW1

Granted Russia now holds the balance of power in Europe - at least for now.

Okay let's go through this

What happens to the German Navy? Is it partitioned by the three powers (very likely) or given to Britain (rather unlikely). Or do the Germans get to keep it? In the latter case it effectively goes to Russia as the master of the continent

Yes, the British Empire is effectively helpless- the situation created is this- France cannot stand up to Germany on its own. The only power capable of protecting France from Germany is Russia- her old and faithful ally. The Franco-Russian alliance survives

What about Germany? Obviously the old ally Austria is gone and wasn't much help in any event. Germany can beat France but can't beat Russia (freed of Austria) and certainly not a Franco-Russian assault. Britain can offer no real help to a massive land invasion by France and Russia. Germany will seek to be a partner in a Continental alliance with France and Russia. Russia will accept this with open arms because it gives Russia what it has always dreamed of- the ability to destroy the British Empire for good

The British can't enforce any of the treaty clauses against Germany. They don't in our time and there isn't much they can do to Germany if Russia keeps the land border open

Basically- Germany becomes the junior partner of Russia and the two push France to agree. Not that there's any reason for the French to be reluctant. The British are useless allies and just ten years earlier were looking to Germany to attack (or at least threaten France). No love at all and then there's Fashoda, the Seven Years War, the Napoleonic and Revolutionary Wars ad nausem. Only the fear of Germany got France to look to Britain.

But if the choice is Russia or Britain, France will in this situation chose Russia. Not only is she safe from Germany, but can share in the spoils of the British Empire.

Call it peace at the expense of Britain- the continent paying the British back for every war since Henry the 8th
 
LordKalvert appears to have... Problems with the British shall we say as reflected in virtually every thread on the topic that he enters...

Bias aside. I doubt that the Russians or the French would be particularly interested in going to war with Britain after defeating Germany, the former of which are close (especially with millions of dead Brits buried across France having just fought a war to assist it) and the latter of which will be working to reform itself and has minimal naval capacity in the face of the Royal Navy (even capturing assets of the German fleet). Relations may deteriorate down the line between Russian and Britain, but even then everything Kalvert mentioned is unlikely. Anglo-French relations were generally positive after WWI and France is still going to fear a revanchist Germany regardless of the state of Russia.

I do see the great game continuing between Britain and Russia though and I'd imagine proxy conflicts to arise across central Asia. Japan is interesting in this scenario, would Tsarist' Russia's policy be different from that of the USSR in regards to China?
 
Last edited:
Okay let's go through this

Yes lets

What happens to the German Navy? Is it partitioned by the three powers (very likely) or given to Britain (rather unlikely). Or do the Germans get to keep it? In the latter case it effectively goes to Russia as the master of the continent

If the German Navy is not Partitioned then WW1 does not end!

Yes, the British Empire is effectively helpless- the situation created is this- France cannot stand up to Germany on its own. The only power capable of protecting France from Germany is Russia- her old and faithful ally. The Franco-Russian alliance survives

The British Army has a rather powerful and well equipped continental field army in Germany in 1919 OTL- no reason to suspect that the same is not true in this ATL - thats a pretty good indication of what it can and cannot do.

This same army had fought side by side with France for 3+ years

Lets face it - If Russia becomes the new dominant force in Europe then Britain, France, Italy (and possibly even Turkey/Ottoman Empire?) and likely Japan (Dependng on the Stance of the USA) form a New Entente


What about Germany? Obviously the old ally Austria is gone and wasn't much help in any event. Germany can beat France but can't beat Russia (freed of Austria) and certainly not a Franco-Russian assault. Britain can offer no real help to a massive land invasion by France and Russia. Germany will seek to be a partner in a Continental alliance with France and Russia. Russia will accept this with open arms because it gives Russia what it has always dreamed of- the ability to destroy the British Empire for good

Which everyone can see - so everyone allies with Russia in the hope that they get eaten last?

Nah - not happening

The British can't enforce any of the treaty clauses against Germany. They don't in our time and there isn't much they can do to Germany if Russia keeps the land border open

Again there is a British Field force in Germany - on the ground with its allies whome it has fought shoulder to shoulder with for 3 years.

Basically- Germany becomes the junior partner of Russia and the two push France to agree. Not that there's any reason for the French to be reluctant. The British are useless allies and just ten years earlier were looking to Germany to attack (or at least threaten France). No love at all and then there's Fashoda, the Seven Years War, the Napoleonic and Revolutionary Wars ad nausem. Only the fear of Germany got France to look to Britain.

No - Germany is defanged - at least in the 20s - France along with Britian and Italy (who have far more in common with each other than with Russia) form the Nucleus of a new Entente - which check mates any Russian influence in Germany.

But if the choice is Russia or Britain, France will in this situation chose Russia. Not only is she safe from Germany, but can share in the spoils of the British Empire.

Again only if she wants to get eaten last - which she doesn't so goes with the Alliance she can trust

Call it peace at the expense of Britain- the continent paying the British back for every war since Henry the 8th

No lets just call it peace at the expense of Germany and the AH empire and probably Turkey - and are you seriously placing the blame for every pre 1900 war in Europe for 400 years on Britain?

It all becomes very clear......
 
Russia will be better off, but is still going to have to face a lot of problems even in victory. Nicholas wasn't suited to be ruler for a start. In the peace though, I can see them getting rights to go through the Straits, but Britain and France aren't going to want to want to hand over Constantinople to them and Russia doesn't have the capability to capture it. They'll be getting Poland for sure and a fair portion of Austro-Hungary's domains. In the aftermath though, Russia is going to have to spend time inwardly to decide on what to do with the aftermath.

I suspect that Russia will take some years stabalising its new gains, but political discord isn't going to be too far behind. With the war won, you're going to see people wanting rewards for that, whether through land or greater rights.
 
What's keeping the Germans from scuttling their fleet like OTL?

No difference from OTL - so it probably still happens as per OTL

LordKalvert appears to have... Problems with the British shall we say as reflected in virtually every thread on the topic that he enters...

Apparently according to him the British are responsable for 400 years of Conflict in Europe and now its payback time :rolleyes:


Bias aside. I doubt that the Russians or the French would be particularly interested in going to war with Britain after defeating Germany, the former of which are close (especially with millions of dead Brits buried across France having just fought a war to assist it) and the latter of which will be working to reform itself and has minimal naval capacity in the face of the Royal Navy (even capturing assets of the German fleet). Relations may deteriorate down the line between Russian and Britain, but even then everything Kalvert mentioned is unlikely. Anglo-French relations were generally positive after WWI and France is still going to fear a revanchist Germany regardless of the state of Russia.

If the fleet gets partitioned then Russia gets no more than a quarter of the 16 Battleships and Battle Cruisers, 8 Cruisers and 50 Destroyers that were destined to be handed over as part of the Armistice - assuming that they are not scuttled!

And yes Britain had been a French Ally for decades I dont see that changing.

I do see the great game continuing between Britain and Russia though and I'd imagine proxy conflicts to arise across central Asia. Japan is interesting in this scenario, would Tsarist' Russia's policy be different from that of the USSR in regards to China?

If the great game continued I see no reason why Tsarist Russia would not do the same with regards to China

This could result in the Anglo - Japanese relations being retained at 1919 levels even in the face of US demands at the WNT (given a reduced US invovlement in WW1)?
 
Top