Russia: a bastion of freedom and democracy

With a little tweaking, the Russian Federation from Decades of Darkness answers this (although the POD is a bit earlier).

Bruce
 
Devil's advocate: if the Azeris can speak Azeri, be Muslim, and enjoy the protection of the law as equal citizens in a liberal democracy, I think that can farely be called a "free society" even if the Azeris have no organ for their independent national destiny. After all, here in Britain, English voters could impose a government on Scotland in the 1950s: I have no issue with that because I'm a unionist, but a lot of my countrymen believe in Scotland as much as the Azeris believe in Azerbaijan.

And as a unionist more generally, and a Russophile, I'm also going to have to say that while the OTL Russian Empire did indeed oppress many nationalities, if it can peacefully transform itself I don't see why it needs to necessarily fall apart. A lot of the nationalists in the 1900s were aiming for cultural autonomy as I said, and anyway 1914 Baku, IIRC, had more Russians in it than Azeris.

What we really need for the Russian Empire to transform itself internally is a major attitude change within the predominately culturally and linguistically Russian, Orthodox political establishment/aristocracy: the ability to see that the smaller nationalities can and will be loyal to the Tsar and the "idea of the Empire" even if they speak their own languages, follow their own laws and customs and practice different religions.

IOTL, in the 19th century the smaller nationalities were seen as suspect, very much capable of betraying the Empire at the drop of a hat if they were allowed any trappings of Nationalism. The Polish, of course, were the poster boys for nationalist trouble, but clearly even loyalty did not stop the threat of Russification. The Grand Duchy of Finland was as loyal to the Tsar as any ordinary Russian province, and by the end of the century the Finns were losing the constitutional rights (they thought the Tsar had promised to safeguard) so fast their heads were spinning.

The main competitors of Russia, France and Britain, were already culturally and linguistically unitary states, and very clearly strong for it.
The foreign examples were very tempting. So, how can we avoid the OTL situation, in which Russification was seen among the political elite as the vehicle for unifying the patchwork of suspect nationalities into a strong, God-fearing Empire under the divinely ordained power of the Tsar? How to make the Russian aristocracy and royalty of 1830 vintage multiculturalists in a few generations, at the same time avoiding the strengthening of Russian (imperial) national chauvinism AND the smaller nationalisms of the minority peoples?

Having more liberal, reforming Tsars is all well and good, but getting to the rank and file of the aristocracy, the intelligentsia and the Church is more than a miscarriage or a nihilist bomb away.
 
What we really need for the Russian Empire to transform itself internally is a major attitude change within the predominately culturally and linguistically Russian, Orthodox political establishment/aristocracy: the ability to see that the smaller nationalities can and will be loyal to the Tsar and the "idea of the Empire" even if they speak their own languages, follow their own laws and customs and practice different religions.

IOTL, in the 19th century the smaller nationalities were seen as suspect, very much capable of betraying the Empire at the drop of a hat if they were allowed any trappings of Nationalism. The Polish, of course, were the poster boys for nationalist trouble, but clearly even loyalty did not stop the threat of Russification. The Grand Duchy of Finland was as loyal to the Tsar as any ordinary Russian province, and by the end of the century the Finns were losing the constitutional rights (they thought the Tsar had promised to safeguard) so fast their heads were spinning.

The main competitors of Russia, France and Britain, were already culturally and linguistically unitary states, and very clearly strong for it.
The foreign examples were very tempting. So, how can we avoid the OTL situation, in which Russification was seen among the political elite as the vehicle for unifying the patchwork of suspect nationalities into a strong, God-fearing Empire under the divinely ordained power of the Tsar? How to make the Russian aristocracy and royalty of 1830 vintage multiculturalists in a few generations, at the same time avoiding the strengthening of Russian (imperial) national chauvinism AND the smaller nationalisms of the minority peoples?

Having more liberal, reforming Tsars is all well and good, but getting to the rank and file of the aristocracy, the intelligentsia and the Church is more than a miscarriage or a nihilist bomb away.

You'd want to go back to the 18th century, really (Catherine the Great was, comparatively speaking, pretty pro-Muslim), although the real Russification, intended as you say to make a culturally unitary nation, was under Alexander III. Nicholas I got the ball rolling, but his policies were basically negative: he attacked "Polish institutions" after 1831 but left the Georgians to themselves. My idea with Alexander Nikolayevich could avoid the worst of it, if everything goes right. Finland, at least, would probably be left alone.

Having Constantine succeed might nip the thing in the bud (he was a Polanophile, but did that extent to general tolerance? I'm not sure), but although the effects would manifest in '25, for that you'd need a PoD earlier in Alexander's life, really.
 
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