Fearless Leader
Donor
Run Through the Jungle: an Alternate Vietnam War
Part I: The Tet Offensive
Background
1968 was a crucial year for the forces of North Vietnam. For nearly a decade it’s leadership, divided between those following Soviet and Maoist lines of thought had bickered over the course of the ongoing conflict the nation found itself in. Up until 1967 the militant wing of the party, had dominated the decision making process regarding the war in South Vietnam. Yet despite belonging to the Maoist camp, the militants did not follow the successful Maoist strategy of guerrilla warfare and instead preferred to focus on large scale force actions.
Unfortunately for the North Vietnamese, these actions were proving to be incredibly costly and though they were wearing down American morale, they consistently fell short of tactical goals. Many within the North Vietnamese camp were favouring a return to guerrilla warfare and the pursuit of a more peaceful co-existence with South Vietnam rather than the current status quo. However the militants continued to hold sway over the conduct of the war. Things changed however with the sudden death of Ngyugen Chi Thanh, the North Vietnamese General in charge of the Central Office for South Vietnam on March 7th 1967(1). Following Thanh’s death the militant camp soon lost momentum and quickly found itself marginalized and a more moderate course of action was pursued.
The reversion to guerrilla warfare tactics was somewhat of a letdown for the militant wing of the party. Almost as soon as a consensus was reached, prominent militants such as General Tran Van Tra, head of COSVN, and others began to systematically re-establish their control over decisions made in regards to the war. In a matter of months, Tra and his fellow militants managed to regain control of the decisions regarding the conduct of the war. Proclaiming the failure of the reversion to guerrilla warfare tactics, Hung and his allies within the militant camp of the Vietnamese Communist party began to prepare for a winter-spring offensive, based heavily off plans originating from the now deceased General Thanh, to take place in early 1969.
Planning
By the middle of 1968 it had become apparent that despite the upswing in the non-militant wing of the Vietnamese Communist Party, the militants were once again in full control of the prosecution of the war with the United States. They came to the conclusion that the Saigon government and the US occupation were so unpopular, that if successful, an offensive, based off plans from General Thanh, would be enough to give the Communists a sweeping decisive victory.
Though the plan for the now infamous Tet offensive may have originated with General Nguygen Chi Thanh, the actual operation was planned primarily by two men, General Pham Hung, Thanh’s former deputy and The North Vietnamese Defence Minister, Vo Nguygen Giap. Though Giap was a member of the non-militant wing of the Vietnamese Communist Party, and worked “reluctantly, and under duress” he functioned quite well, mostly due to the fact that he was faced with a fait accompli. Since the Politburo had already approved the offensive, all he had to do was make it work. He combined guerrilla operations into what was basically a conventional military offensive and shifted the burden of sparking the popular uprising to the NLF. If it worked, all would be well and good, if it failed it would be a failure only for the Party militants. For the moderates and centrists it offered the prospect of negotiations and a possible end to the American bombing of the North. Only in the eyes of the militants did the offensive become a "go for broke" effort. Others in the Politburo were willing to settle for a much less ambitious "victory."
By October of 1968, the North Vietnamese Communist Party had set the date for the infamous offensive. The offensive would take place during the lunar new year holiday Tet Nyugen Dan, a fact which would lead to it being referred to as the “Tet Offensive” by the American media. The offensive itself would consist of several phases. The first phase would see a series of diversionary attacks launched from Viet Cong bases in Cambodia and Southern Laos to draw American and South Vietnamese attention from the cities. Once the attention of the South Vietnamese and American forces had been attained operations would commence against US military bases and South Vietnamese cities. However the influence of General Giap ensured that attacking American military units was of secondary importance. The primary thrust of this offensive was to shatter the Republic of South Vietnam.
By mid 1968 the logistical preparations for the offensive were already well underway. During late 1967 and the first half of 1968, the militant wing of the Communist party had seen to it that the NLF or Vietcong were given significant amounts of new Soviet military hardware such as the AK-47 assault rifle and the B-40 RPG. These new weapons would give the Viet Cong a distinct qualitative edge over their Republic of Vietnam counterparts.
By January 1968 it was estimated by Allied forces that the North Vietnamese had amassed over 350,000 troops for the upcoming offensive, including 130,000 army regulars and 190,000 Vietcong along with 33,000 support staff. The hammer was poised and ready to strike while the Americans and their allies were about to make the biggest intelligence mistake since Pearl Harbor.
Pearl 2
Few people within the United States military saw what would become known as the “Tet Offensive” coming. 1968 was, by all accounts, a fairly good year for the Americans and their allied forces. General Westmoreland was resolute in his stance that they were winning the war. Indeed during 1968, approval ratings for the incumbent president Lyndon Baines Johnson, actually went up by a small amount. Encouraged by this he sought re-nomination and defeated his main rival Eugene McCarthy in the Democratic Primary by a wide margin.
Johnson’s safe victory in the primary, would not be echoed in the polls in November however. November 1968 saw the Republican Party nominate none other than former Vice President Richard Nixon for a second time. In addition, Alabama Governor George Wallace would run under a Third Party, the American Independent Party and contest the Southern States. Come November 1968 Johnson would only just barely squeak into office, losing the popular vote, but winning on the basis of the Electoral college(2). Far from the mandate he’d received in 1964, Johnson realized he would have to be much more careful in this, his second full term as President of the United States.
By late 1968 however things were beginning to look dire once again in South Vietnam. Allied intelligence was reporting an increasing buildup of North Vietnamese forces. However many of the intelligence faculty in South Vietnam refused to acknowledge the build up of North Vietnamese forces believing an offensive of such magnitude to be beyond that of the communist country. Nevertheless, it was apparent that indeed, the North Vietnamese were going to attack leading General Westmoreland to inform Washington he expected a fairly large offensive. Yet Westmoreland along with everyone else would be astonished at the scope of the offensive.
Throughout the latter half of 1968, the North Vietnamese and their Viet Cong allies had initiated the first phase of their plan. In what would be termed “The Border Battles” various US outposts would be attacked. These battles, though they were tactical defeats for the North Vietnamese, served to accomplish their overall strategic goal. Though Westmoreland had informed Washington that he believed an offensive was in the works, his reports were so optimistic that no one in Washington expected what was going to happen next.
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(1): The POD is that General Nguyen Chi Thanh dies of a heart attack 5 months earlier and is thus unable to present his plans for OTL’s Tet offensive to the Communist High Command. This throws the militant faction into disarray causing a return to guerrilla warfare during late 1967/early 1968. The militant arm promptly recovers however and is able to once again resume control leading to a Tet Offensive in 1969 rather than 1968.
(2):Electoral map forthcoming
So what do you guys think? Realistic? Plausible? Worthwhile?