Run First
- Thread starter Israel
- Start date
Colorado and Washington are shockers for me, but otherwise it lines up with what I thought. Dellums won areas with a lot of blacks, white liberals, yellow dog southerners, and urban unionized workforce (as opposed to places like WV, where the unionized workers are all rural and in mining).
I peg the popular vote as 52% Buckley, 47% Dellums.
1984 U.S. Presidential Election
Here you go. Since Dellums is the first black nominee for President, I increased the turnout by 3 extra points to the actual 1984 vote total
I'm not altogether surprised by Washington (enough Scoop Jackson Democrats in his home state who would be leery of Dellums and possibly even -- because identity politics are a thing in every era -- some Asian American voters embittered by Ariyoshi's loss), though I would expect Dellums to win either (but not necessarily both) of Wisconsin or Louisiana, the former because it was only starting to trend towards what we could describe as Modern Republicanism in the Eighties (Thompson really was a relative moderate in his early years) and Louisiana because generations of Democratic tribalism were still shaking out down there and the African American turnout would be sky-high, so if Dellums made the right local handshakes he could stay viable a la South Carolina which must have gone by an eyelash and will probably accelerate, not decelerate, Republicanization.) As I think of it, Tennessee might go rather than Arkansas -- both Dukakis and even Mondale polled in the low to mid 40%s there and with efforts to mobilize black voters and truly-poor (think War on Poverty Appalachia) white voters (call it "the Dolly Parton factor") plus the cities (Nashville, Memphis, Chattanoooga) you might swing the state more readily than Arkansas.
Thanks guys! And, thanks yourself. It's been a pleasure getting caught up on this again over the holiday break.
Howard Baker is VP, and from TN. This gives a home state boost for Buckley
James Buckley is the first Republican to win a Presidential election without carrying Vermont ITTL
Chapter One Hundred and Fifty Four
(Again, thanks to my good friends for helping me work on the down ballot. The Congressman has come up with an idea for this specific race)
"The race started out with [Jane] Byrne in the lead--polls put her four to six points ahead of Charles Percy. So he decided to launch his campaign a couple months before [James] Buckley started his own. He was experienced, after all--in the Senate, a reputed voice. So his reelection committee invited [Charles] Evers to a rally in Chicago..."
-Richard M Daley, Jr (2009)
"In this election year--a time when passions have been raised--voters should vote with a clear mind, as they always do. And while I do not represent the voters of this state, I've seen Charles Percy fight for the good of the voters of Illinois..."
-Charles Evers (1984)
"And now, in Illinois, we can call the 1984 Senate election for Charles Percy... it seems that he has won the election with only ninety or so votes above one thousand..."
-Dan Rather (1984)
"The race started out with [Jane] Byrne in the lead--polls put her four to six points ahead of Charles Percy. So he decided to launch his campaign a couple months before [James] Buckley started his own. He was experienced, after all--in the Senate, a reputed voice. So his reelection committee invited [Charles] Evers to a rally in Chicago..."
-Richard M Daley, Jr (2009)
"In this election year--a time when passions have been raised--voters should vote with a clear mind, as they always do. And while I do not represent the voters of this state, I've seen Charles Percy fight for the good of the voters of Illinois..."
-Charles Evers (1984)
"And now, in Illinois, we can call the 1984 Senate election for Charles Percy... it seems that he has won the election with only ninety or so votes above one thousand..."
-Dan Rather (1984)
With Dellums as the D standard bearer, Percy would never win the black vote. However, even getting 12-15% of it would make a massive difference (as we saw with Bruce Rauner in 2014). Evers is a respected civil rights hero, so I wouldn't doubt he'd pull some strings