Rump Roman state in North Africa/Middle East

Tunisia was a breadbasket, have the empire split 3 ways, or have an emperor flee there and take a fair few Romans with and there is a good chance a 3rd empire will take root.
 
Yes, No Muslim Conquest of North Africa. That is the real dividing line. Tunisia would become a Meditarean/Cathoic/European State. Like Algeria and Morocco too.

Egypt would be more complex, but possible as well.
 
Tunisia was a breadbasket, have the empire split 3 ways, or have an emperor flee there and take a fair few Romans with and there is a good chance a 3rd empire will take root.

This really. As long as you can avoid the Vandals crossing into Africa, it could work-the western empire could plausibly lose Italy I imagine. Though, I'm not sure how they would not recover it-N. Africa being a wealthy breadbasket and the eastern empire still probably willing to help out.
 
What really hurt the WRE basically was losing Africa to the Vandals, keep the Vandals out and this is a serious possibility. Actually if Rome managed to keep Africa, Carthage and Mauretania the muslim Arabs would've ultimately been expelled from Aegyptus (With pressure also coming from the ERE).
 
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