Rudolf Crown Prince of Austria lives

What would have happen if Crown Prince Rudolf doesn't blow his brains out? And his father dies a decade or two earlier?

Well, to have Rudolf survive, we'll need resolutions for the following:

1) His relationships with his wife, Archduchess Stephanie, and his mistress, Marie Vetsera. Perhaps he does persuade the Vatican to grant him an annulment, and gets Franz Josef to go along with it.

2) His other conflicts with his father. I think the portrayal of Rudolf in the 1968 "Mayerling" movie as a royal radical is rather exaggerated, but he did have a rough relationship with the Emperor and maybe in some way that's smoothed over.

3) His health problems. He reportedly had syphilis, among other complaints.

Franz Josef OTL, even with all the tragedies in his personal life and his increasing infirmity, managed to soldier on until 1916. Maybe he's assassinated instead of Elisabeth? And if Rudolf lives, Sissi probably won't go on those endless wanderings that finally placed her on the wrong end of Luigi Luccheni's sharpened file in Geneva that September day in 1898.
 
Well, to have Rudolf survive, we'll need resolutions for the following:

1) His relationships with his wife, Archduchess Stephanie, and his mistress, Marie Vetsera. Perhaps he does persuade the Vatican to grant him an annulment, and gets Franz Josef to go along with it.

2) His other conflicts with his father. I think the portrayal of Rudolf in the 1968 "Mayerling" movie as a royal radical is rather exaggerated, but he did have a rough relationship with the Emperor and maybe in some way that's smoothed over.

3) His health problems. He reportedly had syphilis, among other complaints.

Franz Josef OTL, even with all the tragedies in his personal life and his increasing infirmity, managed to soldier on until 1916. Maybe he's assassinated instead of Elisabeth? And if Rudolf lives, Sissi probably won't go on those endless wanderings that finally placed her on the wrong end of Luigi Luccheni's sharpened file in Geneva that September day in 1898.

I agree with some of this, mostly the health issues and his relationship with his father, but I don't know if you can really resolve the issues with Stephanie and Mary Vetsera. Maybe he just simply never becomes smitten with Mary. We'll never really know what happened at Mayerling, but I'm not inclined to think he was 'in love' with Mary. He was just a desperate and ailing man and she was so taken with him that she agreed to take part in the suicide pact. After all, Rudolf had another mistress, Mizzi Karper, IIRC. She was an actress and he'd asked her to commit suicide with him and she had refused. Even went to the chief of the police about the matter who promptly ignored her.

As for Stephanie.. I don't see Franz Josef ever agreeing to the marriage. Even though he certainly became aware that she would have no more children because Rudolf had given her venereal disease and that the pair had even discussed divorce, he probably isn't going to allow it. He was extremely devout to a point; he had his own unhappy marriage yet had never pursued a divorce. I just can't imagine him allowing it. He was just too old fashioned, see Franz Ferdinand and Chotek for example. The Emperor was also fairly fond of Stephanie, while the Empress was not (she called her an ugly elephant, for instance).

The Empress was also traveling long before Rudolf's death. She had health issues as well, and in the 1850s had been forced to spend periods abroad in Madeira as well as Corfu. Corfu became a regular haunt of the Empress. She hated the Viennese court and all the stifling protocol. She definitely tried to stay away as much as possible.

I think the best resolution is improving Rudolf's health. Have him never catch syphilis. It might also help to improve his issues regarding alcoholism and even morphine addiction. His circumstances were probably part of the reason he acted out, but if you can stabilize him, it'd definitely be for the better. That removes one obstacle. He might be stuck in an unhappy marriage, but at least can continue to father children. One reason might be improving his relationship rather than him divorcing her. After all, if he does so, he's still going to be sickly and have a limited life span. They got along, at least at the beginning... so maintaining some social harmony may be better.

I also agree that Mayerling probably overplayed his attitude... that is a cliché of Rudolf, which is quite well shown in the Crown Prince (a 2006 film that was translated into English in 2010. Definitely worth watching; it's not accurate, but it does follow some important parts and is lovely for the costumes and such) that Rudolf was a liberal who sought to modernize the empire through liberal democracy, federalism, industry, and education. He was definitely liberal, but I don't think he was radical.

If we can make his marriage with Stephanie more harmonious (or maybe give him another wife all together -- there were few choices for Rudolf given he had to marry into reigning Catholic Houses, but certainly another choice that might "fit" better with him... I always pondered the idea of marriage to a Princess of Saxony, or even one of the Infanta's of Spain; as a long shot maybe one of his Tuscan cousins (the Archduchess Louise comes to mind, as she led a life of breaking convention: she'd get along well with him I think) or one of the other many royals of the deposed Italian houses, such as the Bourbons of Parma or the Two Sicilies, or even of the Orléanist line, given that the direct Bourbon line had no issue. These long shots were all pretenders of course, but they were still formally reigning houses and still made good marriages.

From there, things can be worked on with Franz Josef. He was already getting older, perhaps Rudolf can inch himself into being allowed to partake in the government. That might be more feasible if the German liberals don't collapse within Parliament; Rudolf was coming of age during the time of Taaffe and his "Iron Ring" of German Conservatives, Clericals, and Polish and Czech landowners dominated the parliament. He was Prime Minister of Austria for some fourteen years, the longest in Austria-Hungary's history given the great disagreements that often sprung up in Austria's Parliament. If Rudolf can be involved in affairs, at least limitedly, perhaps it'd give him something to live for, so to speak, rather than throwing it away in the brothels.

But when Rudolf comes to the throne... he'd certainly make a break from the policies of his father. He was liberal and some say French oriented. I wonder though, if he might not end up an Austrian Wilhelm II. He certainly had liberal policies, but we're not sure what kind of political acumen he had. I could see him grandstanding ala Wilhelm II and causing all kinds of issue. With Rudolf we might see the empire carry on... but even during his period the empire was seeming somewhat moribund, and in the early twentieth century there was an increase in ethnic strife that paralyzed the Austrian Parliament, with Prime Ministers and the Emperor often ruling through emergency decrees, while there were issues with the Hungarians. Not saying Rudolf can't overcome it, but the empire has serious structural issues that need to be overcome. He has the advantage that at that time other ethnic groups (such as the Czechs) merely wanted increased autonomy, not independence. I can see something like trialism (perhaps Rudolf reviving the ideas of the 1871 patent which would've basically restored the Kingdom of Bohemia to it's borders and allowed the Diet of Bohemia to handle their own affairs with Czech deputies not sitting in Vienna--essentially what the
'67 Ausgeleich had given Hungary) that might be evolved into a more federal system.
 
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