Royal Navy at Pearl Harbor instead of US. Does Japan still attack?

Though the POD for this scenario is pre 1900, my question is post 1900.

POD - the British take advantage of the US civil war and make Hawaii a UK protectorate, making Pearl a large RN base.

How would this effect Japanese plans for WW2? Do they move up their timetables to coincide with the active war in Europe? Will an attack on Pearl, still happen? I would assume that the British would install more radar stations, and have well trained operators, so would a surprise attack be out of the question?

ric350
 
How would this effect ...... WW2?
What happens to Spanish American war etc..... too many butterfly's IMO.......???

I would assume that the British would install more radar stations, and have well trained operators, so would a surprise attack be out of the question?
What fleet to defend unless its a much richer GB in that case Europe might already have been won?
 
The PoD is so far back butterflies render the plausibility of almost-exactly-OTL-WW2 happening rather low.

Putting that aside, Pearl Harbo(u)r would likely be a rather secondary Royal navy base, certainly wouldn't expect a full Battleline to be based there, and likely given the need for Capital Ships in the Med and Atlantic probably nothing larger than a Cruiser would be based out of there in 1941... That has rather less draw for a large scale attack ala OTL...

Edit: If there is a RN Battlefleet operating out East Singapore is the more likely base of operations, so expect the Japanese to send the Combined Fleet south instead of east...
 
Pearl Harbour strikes me as a prime candidate for inclusion in the ships for bases deal if WWII ever happens.

Hawaii would be a very minor colony, much like Fiji. It's not going to have a major naval base in Pearl, just a home for cruisers.
 
Yeah I’m dismissing the flock of butterflies that puts a RN force at Pearl, but accepting that, would a RN presence there throw a wrench in IJN plans? Or does it make life easier for the IJN as they can focus their full force in the Far East? Of course this could also mean the US Navy would have a much larger force in the Philippines.

ric350
 
IJN will go where the fleet is, which will be Singapore, not Pearl. Or more probably, Alex, Gib and Scapa. In which case we're back to the location of the US fleet.
 
If the British Pacific fleet were at Pearl, the Japanese would attack it at Pearl. If it were (as is obviously more likely) in Singapore, the Japanese would go there. US citizens seem to remember only the Hawaii were attacked on the first day of Japan's expansion of its war beyond China, but actually the Japanese attacked Hong Kong and Malaya on that same day.

If the US fleet, in turn, is not at Pearl, it will be in the Philippines - and the Japanese will attack there, too, realizing a much more effective concentration of forces and probably not letting anything escape their attentions. if the US admirals are halfway as competent as they should be, it will be back in California, beyond Japan's reach.

All that said, the PoD is in the 1860s-70s, so move this to the proper sub-forum.
 
Pearl Harbour strikes me as a prime candidate for inclusion in the ships for bases deal if WWII ever happens.
Or the US Navy is allowed access to Pearl Harbour, with British approval, as part of a free trade deal between the Kingdom of Hawai'i and the US. IIRC most of Hawai'i's sugar exports went to the US and I doubt Britain's holdings in the Pacific region could replace that demand.

It does raise the question of how the US reacts if their base at Pearly Harbour is sub-leased from or next to/nearby a Royal Navy one. The America First types – or even the Japanese themselves, it worked in the USS Panay incident after all – could try to argue that it was all a horrible mistake with the Japan trying to target British units but getting it wrong. That goes out the window come the invasion of the Philippines but it could confuse things for 24 hours or so.
 
All that said, the PoD is in the 1860s-70s, so move this to the proper sub-forum.
But the OP doesn’t want butterflies, he wants to know what the effects would be IOTL WW2 if Hawaii was a British protectorate. Thus the thread should be here, along with nearly all other WW2 threads and concentration of posters who like to discuss WW2
 
WI a British Fleet was re-fuelling in Pearl Harbour the sane day that Japan attacked?
If they sailed from the Panama Canal, there is a slim chance that Japan is un-aware of that many British ships in the Pacific.
 
The Japanese attacked PH because they thought taking out the Arizona would be more long-term crippling than it was. So their target would not have been the RN at PH. Where is the USS Arizona? As stated, the POD goes too far back to assume the level of US logistics in the Pacific.
Or the US Navy is allowed access to Pearl Harbour, with British approval, as part of a free trade deal between the Kingdom of Hawai'i and the US. IIRC most of Hawai'i's sugar exports went to the US and I doubt Britain's holdings in the Pacific region could replace that demand.
The US and Britain are close enough allies that both countries could have ships there, making an OTL attack even less likely.
 
The US and Britain are close enough allies that both countries could have ships there, making an OTL attack even less likely.
I sure the UK–as the protecting party–would keep a small number of ships in the area both to fulfill their duties and show that they still retained authority plus the odd one or two transiting through, but I'd expect the US presence to be much larger since it was their direct stopping point on the way to the Philippines. It simply isn't as important to the UK.
 
I would imagine that all other things being equal USN battleships, carrier and fleet units might still have deployed there if PH was threatened - in order to have the fleet in relative strike range of the Far East

This is assuming the war gaming of the late 20s and 30s ruled out keeping the US fleet at Manila as it was a really dumb idea

Unless the lack of Pearl Harbor resulted in Manila being beefed up as a major naval base with suitable dry docks etc which might change the OTL planned potential decolonization of PH in 1945?

Also all other things being equal the RN is going to busy fighting the Germans, Italians, Vichi French while covering convoys to Russia - so it is unlikely that the RN will have much in the way of any battle fleet in Pearl Harbor anyway
 
So if the IJN doesn’t have to be sidetracked into a Pearl campaign, will they curb stomp any other forces they encounter in the Far East, long before any counter force can be brought to bear? Also would their attack on the Philippines still trigger a US declaration of war?

ric350
 
So if the IJN doesn’t have to be sidetracked into a Pearl campaign, will they curb stomp any other forces they encounter in the Far East, long before any counter force can be brought to bear? Also would their attack on the Philippines still trigger a US declaration of war?

Yes, and yes.
 
without Hawaii, will the US be looking for colonies in the Pacific as it did in OTL?

Did they? In any case, the answer is, we shouldn't discuss it here. Remember, it's a thread out of its proper sub-forum (because the POD is pre-1900). It's going on here because the OP said he did not want to consider the obvious butterfly effects of a POD back in the 1860s-70s. So everything else has to be the same, with the USA still having control of the Commonwealth of the Philippines (to which independence had been promised for 1944; it was delayed two years by the war).
The USA not getting the Philippines and Guam as a consequence of not getting the Hawaii should be discussed in a separate thread in the pre-1900 sub-forum.
 
I would imagine that all other things being equal USN battleships, carrier and fleet units might still have deployed there if PH was threatened - in order to have the fleet in relative strike range of the Far East

This is assuming the war gaming of the late 20s and 30s ruled out keeping the US fleet at Manila as it was a really dumb idea

Unless the lack of Pearl Harbor resulted in Manila being beefed up as a major naval base with suitable dry docks etc which might change the OTL planned potential decolonization of PH in 1945?

Also all other things being equal the RN is going to busy fighting the Germans, Italians, Vichi French while covering convoys to Russia - so it is unlikely that the RN will have much in the way of any battle fleet in Pearl Harbor anyway

I'm also wondering what the RN would have in Hawaii. I'm assuming Hawaii instead of the Singapore is the main British base in the Pacific. Maybe Singapore is considered too exposed? Too vulnerable to the mighty bombing plane, or even dirigible? :) Is HMS Warspite being repaired at Pearl Harbor instead of Bremerton, WA?

I am assuming the US doesn't have much between the west coast and the Philippines. American Samoa, Guam, Johnston Island, Wake, Midway? Guam was taken by the US fleet that sailed from San Francisco to take the Philippines in 1898. The US might want to take the entire Marianas chain in this ATL, but would the US fleet have enough strength to take all the important islands before the war with Spain is settled? So, in the 1941 of this ATL, the US Pacific Fleet is based in California. There are forward bases on Guam, American Samoa, and we'll count Dutch Harbor, AK. None of those bases on Pacific islands or in Alaska have the infrastructure of OTL Pearl Harbor. While the USN hasn't suffered heavy losses, it doesn't have the bases to project major forces into the western Pacific.

The Japanese still run roughshod over the European and American colonies and forces in the Far East.
 
I'm also wondering what the RN would have in Hawaii. I'm assuming Hawaii instead of the Singapore is the main British base in the Pacific. Maybe Singapore is considered too exposed? Too vulnerable to the mighty bombing plane, or even dirigible? :) Is HMS Warspite being repaired at Pearl Harbor instead of Bremerton, WA?
Sorry, but for Britain Hawaii is in the middle of nowhere. There's no reason for there to be a major naval base in the islands, merely a refuelling station and support for local defence and anti raider forces.
 
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