Royal Navy as predicted in March 1939...

Redbeard

Banned
This is a really good point! When did the Long Lance torpedo become available because that was another huge weapon advantage.



Japan would take Hong Kong, GB couldn't prevent that from happening. But without the bases in French Indo-china Japan would have base/logistic issues of their own. I don't see how they could project enough power to take Kra Isthmus and eventually Singapore. Singapore is the key for Japan. They have to take that base away from the British in order to succeed.

I think the LL was in widespread service from the late 1930s, but I'll also claim that its utility often is exaggerated. It made its main impression under special circumstances (ie. relatively confined waters) and against an enemy that still was behind in night fighting. The LL had a large warhead, which of course is handy when you hit, but the usual 21 in torpedo usually was enough, and I'll claim that the very long range of the LL (20 km vs 10 km of "normal" torpedoes) was of very limited use. Yes, I know there were examples of LLs hitting after a 10 km + run (and allies not knowing where that came from), but the chance of hitting with a torpedo fired from even 10 km distance is so remote that it is very unlikely to be decisive. Where LLs or any other torpedo can be decisive is if launched in great numbers at close range - ie. sneaking up in low visibility - but sneaking up on the RN in 1940 or later will be quite a job. In 1940 not so much because of rader, but teh RN had given priority to low visibility fighting since Jutland, and after radar became really useful from late40/early 1941 (like Matapan) it would be even harder. From late 1941 and certainly early 1942 the FAA was both equipped and trained in radarguided night attack.

I agree that in anything like OTL the British couldn't prevent Hong Kong from falling, that is probably also why the British plans spoke about an initial "reconquest phase".

For each day the British Empire is left uncommitted the risk of Hong Kong being reinforced is rising though, and i could imagine that would be the "drop in the cup" convincing the Japanese that an attack is "now or never!".

In OTL they did not attack in 1939, and until september 1939 it is still as OTL - ie no initiation of plans to attack. I think I mentioned November 1939 as the European PoD (Hitler stroking in his apple pie), but if that is the time they realise they have to attack, I guess we will be well into 1940 before the actual attack can be carried out - and what have the British done in the meantime?

I think the British planned on needing 70 days from a decision on reinforcing the Far East and until it arrived. In the worst case Japanese scenario they arrive at Hong Kong just after British reinforcements have arrived and making the whole initial affair very costly and risky. Most likely they realise this though and strike with whatever can be gathered quickly, in 1939 the British military presence in Hong Kong was only symbolic.

The Japanese problem is however, that having taken Hong Kong will not exactly have the British feel like they have their head in the mouth of a very big cat. I know Churchill is unlikely as PM in this ATL, but I could imagine any PM saying: "A Lion does not reason with a rat pissing on its paw!" ;)
 

Redbeard

Banned
Without FIC and Philippines it gets very interesting for the IJN to go south to fight off Brunei, Formosa or Hainan is a long way away fight a decisive battle and then cover an invasion v the RN coming from Singapore....

I would indeed be tempting as Brunei had the oil fields, but it is still operating deep down the South China Seas - ie with your head stuck in the Lions mouth and a French Eagle scratching your bum - not to mention the US Grizzly on PI considering what he feels like (Sorry couldn't resist - but please don't get any more images in your mind... :rolleyes:)

But it would of course feed IJN fantasies about the decisive battle, but this time it is not the enemy fleet that advance into increasingly distant and hostile waters to be worn down before the final battle - it is the IJN performing that role. And even if you succeed in taking Brunei, it will be quite a challenge holding it and have it produce oil - and get it back to Japan.

But OK if it is your last chance it is your last chance and they would not be the first or last to act according to silly plans.

It would require considerably longer time to prepare than a coup like operation vs. Hong Kong - probably not earlier than spring 1940 if initiated in late 1939. But assuming that US will declare war once Japan attacks Hong Kong that will give USA time to reinforce the PI. How long did an intact US Pacific Fleet need to send substantial reinforcements to the PI?

Having done a PH first would be very handy, but I doubt that is anywhere near plausible. Even if we assume they get the ideas without OTL Taranto they will need time to develop and train - I guess we are in second half of 1940 at least (and with less/no modern planes and less CVs) - and both the Europeans and Americans can't be expected to be passive in the extra months needed for this operation.

It really sucks to be Japanese Empire.
 
a coup like operation vs. Hong Kong
But what is the point of this? Invading HK gains the Japanese almost nothing as they have bases nearby in China proper so I cant see why they would strike at HK first rather than just mop it up as they strike south?
 

Redbeard

Banned
But what is the point of this? Invading HK gains the Japanese almost nothing as they have bases nearby in China proper so I cant see why they would strike at HK first rather than just mop it up as they strike south?
I really don't know if there is much point in anything the Japanese can do, but it should be about taking the biggest loot you can get before the Europeans have the time to reinforce, and "hope" you with that hostage can negotiate a lift of the embargo. And if that doesn't work then hope the Europeans will come racing up from the South China Sea into your brilliant (but slightly complicated) trap - you did it before at Tushima! But it indeed is one of those plans relying very much on the enemy to do exactly as planned - hardly a good start...
 

Redbeard

Banned
But what is the point of this? Invading HK gains the Japanese almost nothing as they have bases nearby in China proper so I cant see why they would strike at HK first rather than just mop it up as they strike south?
A second thought - perhaps Brunei would be the better place to strike first. I take Brunei would also be very lightly defended by 1939/40 and now you have the oilfields and can say: "You too will not get oil from here, but if we can agree on making Brunei a demiltarised zone and we are guaranteed a certain amount of oil each year, then we leave again, we will even patch up the bullet holes we made..."

I'm not sure 1940 Japanese diplomacy would be that eloquent though :cool:
 
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