Redbeard
Banned
This is a really good point! When did the Long Lance torpedo become available because that was another huge weapon advantage.
Japan would take Hong Kong, GB couldn't prevent that from happening. But without the bases in French Indo-china Japan would have base/logistic issues of their own. I don't see how they could project enough power to take Kra Isthmus and eventually Singapore. Singapore is the key for Japan. They have to take that base away from the British in order to succeed.
I think the LL was in widespread service from the late 1930s, but I'll also claim that its utility often is exaggerated. It made its main impression under special circumstances (ie. relatively confined waters) and against an enemy that still was behind in night fighting. The LL had a large warhead, which of course is handy when you hit, but the usual 21 in torpedo usually was enough, and I'll claim that the very long range of the LL (20 km vs 10 km of "normal" torpedoes) was of very limited use. Yes, I know there were examples of LLs hitting after a 10 km + run (and allies not knowing where that came from), but the chance of hitting with a torpedo fired from even 10 km distance is so remote that it is very unlikely to be decisive. Where LLs or any other torpedo can be decisive is if launched in great numbers at close range - ie. sneaking up in low visibility - but sneaking up on the RN in 1940 or later will be quite a job. In 1940 not so much because of rader, but teh RN had given priority to low visibility fighting since Jutland, and after radar became really useful from late40/early 1941 (like Matapan) it would be even harder. From late 1941 and certainly early 1942 the FAA was both equipped and trained in radarguided night attack.
I agree that in anything like OTL the British couldn't prevent Hong Kong from falling, that is probably also why the British plans spoke about an initial "reconquest phase".
For each day the British Empire is left uncommitted the risk of Hong Kong being reinforced is rising though, and i could imagine that would be the "drop in the cup" convincing the Japanese that an attack is "now or never!".
In OTL they did not attack in 1939, and until september 1939 it is still as OTL - ie no initiation of plans to attack. I think I mentioned November 1939 as the European PoD (Hitler stroking in his apple pie), but if that is the time they realise they have to attack, I guess we will be well into 1940 before the actual attack can be carried out - and what have the British done in the meantime?
I think the British planned on needing 70 days from a decision on reinforcing the Far East and until it arrived. In the worst case Japanese scenario they arrive at Hong Kong just after British reinforcements have arrived and making the whole initial affair very costly and risky. Most likely they realise this though and strike with whatever can be gathered quickly, in 1939 the British military presence in Hong Kong was only symbolic.
The Japanese problem is however, that having taken Hong Kong will not exactly have the British feel like they have their head in the mouth of a very big cat. I know Churchill is unlikely as PM in this ATL, but I could imagine any PM saying: "A Lion does not reason with a rat pissing on its paw!"