alternatehistory.com

Turning point:
1808 Fernando VII flees to New Spain after Napoleonic invasion after signing a treaty with UK. Mexico City becomes the centre of the Spanish Empire.
1815 H.R.H. comes back to Spain in order to deal with the liberales. He left his conservative brother, Carlos as regent. Meanwhile he was in the Americas, they have produced a Constitution in 1812. He nullifies it.
1820 Riego's uprising. The Constitution of 1812 comes to effect.
1821 Mexican elites convince Don Carlos to proclaim himself King of México. The Capitancy of Guatemala adheres.
1822 Carlos I of México gaves his people a Charter which guarantees limited representation in the bicameral Cortes to the corporations.
1823 Southernmost province of Costa Rica proclaims her independence and intends to annex to Bolívar's Gran Colombia. Mexican government launches an expedition to keep the province in.
1826 Fearing a Spanish invasion, México launches an expedition on Cuba with UK support.
1827 Havana finally surrenders.
1829 Failed reconquista of Cuba.
1830 Fernando VII accepts to recognize the independence of México if his brother declines his potential claim on the throne of Spain to clear the way to his daughter Isabel. Carlos refuses.
1833 Fernando VII dies. Isabel is proclaimed queen of Spain and her mother Cristina, regent. Carlos's supporters in the Peninsula ("carlistas") rise in arms. Carlos sents a Mexican convoy to fight for his rights and appoints the generals that conduct the war.
1835 Rise of public discontent. Texas proclaims her independence, along with San Salvador. Mexican subjects are tired of heavy burdens of war and increases in debt.
1836 Texian and Salvadoran rebellion repressed. Abdication of Carlos. His first son becomes Carlos II. The new monarch, aware of the internal problems of his country, accepts to negotiate a treaty with María Cristina: Spain recognizes the independence of México and the occupation of Cuba (while preserving the interests of Spanish landowners and merchants) while he abandons his claim (and of his cadet branch) to the throne of Spain. A new Constitution is enacted. Centralisation stays, representation is limited to those that have properties and pay taxes. New political division of the country in uniformed
provinces.

How long can Mexico survive as a monarchy?
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