Roosevelt elected in 1912, how long till America goes to war?

WI Teddy Roosevelt won the Republican nomination and was subsequently elected President in 1912? Assuming a butterfly net for Europe and thus Franz Ferdinand's OTL assassination occurring ITTL, how long does it take until the openly jingoistic TR mobilizes enough support for joining the war? If America enters the war before or during 1916, does it hurt or help TR's chances at reelection?

(Note: this thread is about TR's polices toward the war as president, not about the plausibility of him wining the Republican nomination or presidency in 1912)
 
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Honestly if TR is president he most likely keeps those tendency's under wraps until the Germans do something like the Zimmerman letter and then he'll unleash it. In fact most of the early sparring I see would be with the British over the blockade of Germany which is something I don't see him backing down from.
 
I have my doubts

TR was quite vocal in his support of the Allies so you have to assume he would have had the same sympathies if he were President. He would have found himself in much the same situation as FDR in 1939 with a strong isolationist strain in the populace. With Hiram Johnson as his Vice President there would have been a strong isolationist voice within the Administration. I really question whether he could have gotten a majority to support going to war earlier than actually occurred.
 

Deleted member 1487

I doubt he'd have congressional support until he forces it through on a divided nation after the Lusitania; the US is very divided over it and there is no general national support for the war, German and Irish Americans are not at all happy about it and the GOP pays a stiff price in 1916. The war is fought to the end, probably ending somewhat sooner, but with much worse US losses. Verdun is potentially butterflied ITTL, maybe US marines participate in Gallipoli. It would be very interesting to see if perhaps a US Democratic president wins on anti-war sentiment and negotiates an early end to the war.
 
You're all overlooking the amount of prestige TR enjoyed throughout the capitals--and chancelleries--of Europe. (See, for example, the photo of TR in intimate conversation with Wilhelm II, both on horseback. Or read any of the Morris, Miller, or Brands biographies for further evidence.)

It is not a foregone conclusion that he would have led the US into the conflict. Indeed, with his prestige, he could well have proposed (11th hour?) mediation of the Austro-Serbian crisis--and in so doing might well have wound up with his second Nobel peace prize.

Had he been turned down for mediation, I maintain he would have kept the US out until an apparent casus belli became apparent. The Lusitania might have been enough, but it's a bit flimsy. On the other hand, I doubt that Arthur Zimmermann would have been foolish enough to propose a German-Mexican alliance with TR in the White House. Wilson was an unknown; TR was not. What might have done it was unrestricted submarine warfare infringing on the rights of neutrals: don't forget that Roosevelt wrote a definitive history of the War of 1812, meaning that he was intimately familiar with the maritime rights of neutrals in wartime. And with TR, he could present a case to Congress that America went to war in 1812 to preserve its maritime rights, and should do so again.
 
He won't be able to move public opinion. He will get into political trouble on this issue. He will lose in 1916 to a Democrat, who runs on I will keep us out of war platform.
 
I can see Roosevelt asking Congress for declarations of war against Germany after a number of American ships are sunk. Congress may not act on it though.
 
This is is an interesting idea, Teddy acting as a mediator I mean. It could work short term but long-term the situation in Europe would eventually cause a war unless the nationalistic militarism gripping most of those countries at that time. Personally I doubt that Teddy would be voted out in 1916 if war had already been declared. History shows that the American people don't switch horses during a major crisis (see Lincoln and FDR).
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Very good points...

You're all overlooking the amount of prestige TR enjoyed throughout the capitals--and chancelleries--of Europe. (See, for example, the photo of TR in intimate conversation with Wilhelm II, both on horseback. Or read any of the Morris, Miller, or Brands biographies for further evidence.)

It is not a foregone conclusion that he would have led the US into the conflict. Indeed, with his prestige, he could well have proposed (11th hour?) mediation of the Austro-Serbian crisis--and in so doing might well have wound up with his second Nobel peace prize.

Had he been turned down for mediation, I maintain he would have kept the US out until an apparent casus belli became apparent. The Lusitania might have been enough, but it's a bit flimsy. On the other hand, I doubt that Arthur Zimmermann would have been foolish enough to propose a German-Mexican alliance with TR in the White House. Wilson was an unknown; TR was not. What might have done it was unrestricted submarine warfare infringing on the rights of neutrals: don't forget that Roosevelt wrote a definitive history of the War of 1812, meaning that he was intimately familiar with the maritime rights of neutrals in wartime. And with TR, he could present a case to Congress that America went to war in 1812 to preserve its maritime rights, and should do so again.

Very good points...

This is the man who won the Nobel Peace Prize for the Treaty of Portsmouth, after all.

Preparedness is undoubtedly a priority for his administration after 1914, but that doesn't mean he'd lead the US to war any earlier; he may even keep the US out of the conflict.

Best,
 
This is is an interesting idea, Teddy acting as a mediator I mean. It could work short term but long-term the situation in Europe would eventually cause a war unless the nationalistic militarism gripping most of those countries at that time. Personally I doubt that Teddy would be voted out in 1916 if war had already been declared. History shows that the American people don't switch horses during a major crisis (see Lincoln and FDR).

I wonder if a League of Nations could be worked out to try and maintain the Concert of Europe, dominated by an increasingly powerful USA...though without WWI the US's rise as a preeminent power might be delayed by a lot.
 
I wonder if a League of Nations could be worked out to try and maintain the Concert of Europe, dominated by an increasingly powerful USA...though without WWI the US's rise as a preeminent power might be delayed by a lot.

That sounds rather plausible. From what I have read Teddy envisioned America's role as something like Britain's in the past, acting to keep any one power from dominating, but on a global stage.
 
A small point, but I can't see TR letting the German Foreign Office send telegrams via the US State Department, the way that Wilson did. This means that something like the Zimmerman Telegram wouldn't be as personally embarrassing to TR as it was to Wilson.

How would TR have reacted to the on-going situation in Mexico ? Would he have intervened more strongly, which would result in the US Army build up starting a little earlier than OTL and so being more prepared for deployment in Europe.

Cheers,
Nigel.
 
WI Teddy Roosevelt won the Republican nomination and was subsequently elected President in 1912? Assuming a butterfly net for Europe and thus Franz Ferdinand's OTL assassination occurring ITTL, how long does it take until the openly jingoistic TR mobilizes enough support for joining the war?

Quite possibly a very long time. There is no evidence that Roosevelt wanted the U.S. to go to war against Germany in 1914; no evidence that he thought Germany was the Bad Guy in 1914.

H. L. Mencken commented on this later. He noted that in 1914, much of the press was practically camped on Roosevelt's doorstep, waiting for him to denounce the Rape of Belgium - but he said nothing for weeks.

Roosevelt admired Germany for its military strength, its efficient authoritarianism, and its forceful actions, and was not then outraged by its actions. By 1916 or so, he'd changed his tune and his "warmongering" was a handicap to the Republicans. But in 1914, he was silent.

If he was President... I don't see that changing his attitude toward Germany. And as President, Roosevelt seems to have avoided sending troops into battle. It would seem that he developed scruples about such bloodshed. The two sentiments would combine to keep him isolationist.

However, it does seem likely that he would also change facing as in OTL, and that he would then propose intervention dird
 
Probably within a year of the wars start. All he'd really have to do is act extremely belligerent to the Germans until they gave him a casual beli.
 
Probably within a year of the wars start. All he'd really have to do is act extremely belligerent to the Germans until they gave him a casual beli.

The Germans won't rise to the bait. They backed off in 1915 and 1916 even before Wilson, so they certainly will before a scarier figure like TR. So it's still 1917 for the DoW, assuming they still go ahead with USW then.
 
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shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Would Teddy go into Mexico rather than Europe after the Zimmerman telegrams?

Given how President Carranza basically told Germany to shove it and his state was recognized by the US to ensure neutrality in the fallout, probably not.

Whilst tension arose, I do not see Roosevelt marching straight into Mexico unless Carranza officially accepted the alliance. Maybe a troop build up along the border to remind him of all the reasons he declined, but I very much doubt the Mexican-American War 2: Electric Boogalo, will be declared.
 

tenthring

Banned
How about this for a timeline. Teddy declares war in 1915 after Lusitania, but he doesn't have a lot of support. Things go OTL in 1915 with the Great Retreat in the East, the failure at Gallipoli, and the fall of Serbia in 1915.

In 1916 America finally send troops to Europe, but the Germans, determined to take an even more defensive stance in 1916 then OTL, manage to hold the line on the western front. American casualties are appalling and Teddy loses the 1916 election. Immediately after Germany proposes peace in Dec 1916 much like OTL but of a different character. Maybe the whole Entente takes them up. Maybe just the Americans do. Either way America is out of the war by early 1917.

The possibility of American help permanently removed the Entente eventually collapses, probably after Russia drops out at the latest.
 
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