Ron Dellums Runs for President in '76

In March of 1976, there was apparently a lot of dissatisfaction among African-Americans about the candidates running for the Democratic nomination, and a group known Black Caucus Political Assembly, led by Ron Daniels, nominated Ron Dellums for the Presidency. The idea was to provide a party that would deal with African-American issues, which to the Assembly's members were not given the attention they truly deserved.

Ron Dellums declined the nomination; it wasn't that he didn't agree with them, he did. Dellums was wary however of resigning from the Democratic Party (which he said he would be required to do), and at the same time was worried that the Progressive Wing of the Democratic Party would be left leaderless (as he put it). The Assembly accepted his decision, and agreed to meet on May 19th to consider further action. Nothing came of it.

So, for the sake of arguement, lets say that Ron Dellums takes the jump, and agrees to lead the movement in the Presidential Election. How does he do, how might this effect the election, and does the movement have any staying power?
 
If you want to swing the election: it takes just 11,000 black voters in Cleveland defecting to Dellums to swing that state's 25 EV to Ford/Dole. That gives them 266, which is 4 shy of a win and 3 shy of throwing the election to the House. (I am ignoring the "faithless Reagan elector" under the belief that he would not do so an in any actual close election.)

Anyway: the next closest states won OTL by Carter/Mondale are Wisconsin (1.7%; 35,000 votes) and Mississippi (1.9%; 15,000 votes). Either are enough to swing the election, but both present problems.

Wisconsin in 1976 has a relatively small and hyper-segregated African-American population mostly located in Milwaukee. As far as I can tell, that would be on the order of 150,000 total African-Americans living in Wisconsin at the time; that might not translate into 35,000 votes even if Dellums wins ~90% of registered African-American voters.

On the other hand, you'll easily find 15,000 defectors in Mississippi -- but will Dellums even get on the ballot there?

After those two states you're talking about needing a shift of over 2% in the remaining states, and I don't see Dellums pulling that high.

Also: none of this includes the possibility (likelihood?) that Dellums could draw liberal Republican voters away from Ford-Dole in Oregon (which went for Ford by 0.2%), Maine (0.8%), and California (1.8%).

The closest scenario I can come up with is that OH (25), WI (11) and MS (7) flip to the Republicans, and then Oregon (9) and Maine (4) shift to the Democrats, giving you 270 for Carter/Mondale and 268 for Ford/Dole. I can't come up with a realistic 269-269 tie.
 
Dellums was openly Socialist, and I assume his campaign would be as well, so I am not sure how appealing he would be to Liberal Republicans. :p

Organization would be key, and many figures in/from the Civil Rights movement would be the ones on the forefront at least initially, or future figures such as Jesse Jackson. Considering Eugene McCarthy's success getting on various ballots as an Independent, with little support behind him, it would stand to reason that Dellums would get on the ballot, especially in states with high percentages of African-American voters.

The biggest factor that must be addressed however is how the Democratic Party, or Carter in this case assuming he still ends up the inevitable nominee, reacts to the split. Poll's will likely inflate Dellums's numbers, a combination of Progressive Democrats and African-Americans now choosing to back Dellums rather than Carter, who they see as Conservative. In an effort to win them back, rather than working towards a nominee he is "compatible with", he goes with the candidate pushed by the media, Frank Church. I am actually unsure as to how Church being on the ticket might effect the election (a Carter Presidency aside).

I actually can't properly interpret the potential result, given I am on the fence. I think the advantage would be towards Ford, given you have Dellums drawing away support from Carter's Left; at the same time though, I think having Church on the ticket would stem the flow of the bleeding for Carter, and potentially allow him to perform better in the election as a whole. So I see it as going either way.

Though I still wonder if this (Lets call it the "African Americans Alliance" Party) would have any real staying power, even with Dellums leadership.


Edit:
I mean, I can potentially see this, if Church doesn't help:

genusmap.php


Or this, if Church does help:

genusmap.php
 
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Dellums will hurt Carter, but he'll probably hurt Eugene McCarthy more than anything, given that Carter will probably tap Church. If Ohio and Mississippi flip to Ford, and Idaho flips to Carter, you get a nice 269-269 tie. I do think Church would have a decent chance to flip Oregon and Washington (California was also very close, but Dellums is from there). Of course, there's always the chance that the Dellums candidacy takes some McGovernik stain off the Democrats, and Carter does better among white voters, too.
 
Dellums will hurt Carter, but he'll probably hurt Eugene McCarthy more than anything, given that Carter will probably tap Church. If Ohio and Mississippi flip to Ford, and Idaho flips to Carter, you get a nice 269-269 tie. I do think Church would have a decent chance to flip Oregon and Washington (California was also very close, but Dellums is from there). Of course, there's always the chance that the Dellums candidacy takes some McGovernik stain off the Democrats, and Carter does better among white voters, too.
That's what leaves me on the fence; Dellums has as much potential to help Carter as he is to hurt him.


Edit: Also Plumber, Map as you laid it out.

genusmap.php

 
Of course, there's always the chance that the Dellums candidacy takes some McGovernik stain off the Democrats, and Carter does better among white voters, too.

That's a distinct possibility. In 1948, Wallace's candidacy helped Truman among centrist and conservative voters by establishing him as anti-Communist; the Dixiecrat rebellion helped him among liberal voters by establishing him as a civil rights champion. It helps to have the right enemies.

However, in 1976, Carter was already being challenged from the left by McCarthy, so I'm not sure that's a real possibility.

Also, it seems fair to assume that OTL, McCarthy drew off nearly all of the non-black leftist vote that Dellums would have appealed to, so it's unlikely Dellums would have done much other than black votes.
 
That's a distinct possibility. In 1948, Wallace's candidacy helped Truman among centrist and conservative voters by establishing him as anti-Communist; the Dixiecrat rebellion helped him among liberal voters by establishing him as a civil rights champion. It helps to have the right enemies.

However, in 1976, Carter was already being challenged from the left by McCarthy, so I'm not sure that's a real possibility.

Also, it seems fair to assume that OTL, McCarthy drew off nearly all of the non-black leftist vote that Dellums would have appealed to, so it's unlikely Dellums would have done much other than black votes.
I agree, but it wouldn't take very many votes switching to the Socialist Dellums to seriously hurt an increasingly libertarian McCarthy.

Had Carter maintained his 33-point lead post-Convention, he would have won every state. Given the amazing state of the Ford campaign, I view somewhere around Reagan's '84 58% as a best-case scenario for Carter, though the bottom map is probably a more realistic Eisenhower-sized landslide.

1976Carter58%.png

Aside from Ford's Great Plains-Rocky Mountain core and Carter's Appalachian-Deep Southern core, the whole map is up for grabs between Carter and Ford, which is fun.

1976Carter58%.png
 
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