alternatehistory.com

Pretty much all there in the title, but I'll clarify. Suppose Romney pulls off Iowa, comes in a close second to McCain in New Hampshire, wins Michigan and Nevada, pulls within 3% of McCain in South Carolina and then takes Florida giving him the momentum heading into Super Tuesday. From there it's just a waiting game while he wraps up the contest taking the nomination. Let's say he picks Pawlenty for VP to reassure the base of his commitment to conservative positions on culture issues. He goes on to lose to Obama/Biden by a more respectable, but still large, loss in November. Say somewhere between 200 and 220 in the Electoral College.

Okay, he's done.

Now it's 2012. Romney is obviously not going to run again. Pawlenty has the leg up, so I assume he's going to be a top-tier candidate going into the race. But like Edwards in 2008 he's tainted by the loss in the previous cycle. So who's coming out to challenge him for the nomination? Presumably not McCain since he's officially too old to run at this point. Huckabee probably didn't have near his level of success ITTL, so is he going to even be considered top-tier if he decides to enter?

Aside from the "usual suspect" also-rans like Paul, who throws their hat into the ring? Who walks away with the nomination? How might they be looking at this point in 2012?
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