Romney 2008 - who runs in 2012?

Let's say Mitt Romney somehow got the Republican nomination in 2008 and lost to Obama (probably by a larger margin than McCain did OTL). In that scenario, what might the 2012 GOP primary be like?
 
Let's say Mitt Romney somehow got the Republican nomination in 2008 and lost to Obama (probably by a larger margin than McCain did OTL). In that scenario, what might the 2012 GOP primary be like?

Would John McCain not try for 2012 if he lost out in 2008?

Most likely candidate in my eyes would be former U.S. Senator, Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.

Although maybe Piyush "Bobby" Jindal, would se 2012 a better year to run then 2016.
 
Would John McCain not try for 2012 if he lost out in 2008?

McCain could go for it, but he'd have two primary defeats under his belt and his more moderate stances wouldn't play well with a GOP that would probably be crying out for a True Conservative after the "liberal" Romney got stomped. I don't think he'd get very far.
 
McCain could go for it, but he'd have two primary defeats under his belt and his more moderate stances wouldn't play well with a GOP that would probably be crying out for a True Conservative after the "liberal" Romney got stomped. I don't think he'd get very far.

Well the best True Conservatives in 2012 would be Mike Huckabee or Rick Perry.
 
Pawlenty or Huntsman might do better.

Maybe Jeb or Mitch Daniels enters the field.

It could be a good year for Jindal. Maybe Trump could be the nominee 4 years early if there are too many candidates and no clear frontrunner.

Romney's VP pick would have a good chance. I think that might be Pawlenty.
 
Pawlenty or Huntsman might do better.

Maybe Jeb or Mitch Daniels enters the field.

It could be a good year for Jindal. Maybe Trump could be the nominee 4 years early if there are too many candidates and no clear frontrunner.

Romney's VP pick would have a good chance. I think that might be Pawlenty.

If Pawlenty goes for it, I could see a Pawlenty v. Huckabee/Gingrich/whoever race in the end. He would wind up being tainted by association with a nominee that went down in flames four years earlier and whoever the right-wing challenger is would have a good chance of beating him.
 

ben0628

Banned
If Mitt Romney doesn't try to run again in 2012, John Huntsman would be guaranteed to win Utah and Nevada (heavy Mormon populations in both states) and Romney would probably endorse him over the other candidates. (John isn't Mormon, but because Romney was, he would have been unable to win his own state had he campaigned that far.
 
(John isn't Mormon, but because Romney was, he would have been unable to win his own state had he campaigned that far.
Wait, Jon Huntsman is not Mormon?

I agree with a lot of what has already been said. John McCain is not likely to return. By 2012 he'll be age 76, and Ronald Reagan is one of the only Republicans that will ever successfully pull off running for a third time. Bobby Jindal and a lot of the candidates that bowed out because of Mitt Romney, such as Chris Christie (inexperience might hurt him), Mike Huckabee, and maybe even Jeb Bush will jump into this alternate race (Bush and Jindal will be contenders for the Establishment support, but I suspect Bush fatigue might weigh Bush down and he'd best stay out). Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, and Tim Pawlenty are stronger in this timeline, and Pawlenty will be another contender for Establishment support, along with Huntsman. Rick Santorum might perform worse because of all these establishment candidates becoming the anti-front runner candidate. If Isabella Santorum is hospitalized as OTL, the only thing that will keep him in is if he wins Illinois, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. So you're line up in for ATL 2012 will be: Jindal as a new establishment Christian Conservative, Bush and Christie splitting the establishment moderate vote, Huckabee and Santorum splitting the Christian conservative vote, and Pawlenty, Gingrich, Ron Paul, Huntsman, Perry, Michele Bachmann, and Herman Cain all the same as OTL. I wonder what ATL 2016 will look like. 2012's nominee and Huckabee won't be returning. George Pataki, Lindsey Graham, Scott Walker, Jim Gilmore, Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul, Ben Carson, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz will jump in as OTL. Bush, Jindal, Perry, Santorum, and Christie will be running campaigns for the second time. If Donald Trump still enters as OTL, I suppose my speculation for ATL 2016 would have been a waste.
 
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2008 Election

Romney could probably carry CO and NV in '08 because of Mormon voters. (I forgot to adjust for NV, so Obama actually wins 26 states and Romney wins 24).
 
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Romney could probably carry CO and NV in '08 because of Mormon voters. (I forgot to adjust for NV, so Obama actually wins 26 states and Romney wins 24).

Why? He didn't carry either of them in 2012 and that was a much better year for the GOP than 2008. The "out-of-touch rich guy who likes to fire people" label is going to stick to him even harder than IOTL 2012 in the aftermath of the financial crisis. It will sink him.

No, I think Romney '08 loses badly. 400+ electoral votes for Obama badly.
 

ben0628

Banned
Wait, Jon Huntsman is not Mormon?


No, wait I was wrong. He is Mormon. I swore I read somewhere the he was the only one of two elected governors of Utah that wasn't Mormon. My bad.
 
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Why? He didn't carry either of them in 2012 and that was a much better year for the GOP than 2008. The "out-of-touch rich guy who likes to fire people" label is going to stick to him even harder than IOTL 2012 in the aftermath of the financial crisis. It will sink him.

No, I think Romney '08 loses badly. 400+ electoral votes for Obama badly.
Except it can't be assumed that Romney will be the corporatist capitalist vulture that he was IOTL 2012. He was considered a better candidate than McCain because of his knowledge in economics and out of the other five major candidates IOTL 2008 he was perceived as the most conservative naturally. Romney became the 'out-of-touch rich guy' when he had to drift right to compete with conservatives such as Perry and Santorum; in 2008 he could be the conservative-leaning moderate that he originally was. McCain was easily associated with the unpopular Bush administration and thats part of the reason why he lost. I see now where I went wrong with NV but Romney is extremely popular in CO so it will be a battleground between Obama and Romney. With moderate Republicans running (Romney being the most conservative GOP candidate of 2008), I dont see the GOP losing as badly (a cushioned fall).
 
Except it can't be assumed that Romney will be the corporatist capitalist vulture that he was IOTL 2012. He was considered a better candidate than McCain because of his knowledge in economics and out of the other five major candidates IOTL 2008 he was perceived as the most conservative naturally. Romney became the 'out-of-touch rich guy' when he had to drift right to compete with conservatives such as Perry and Santorum; in 2008 he could be the conservative-leaning moderate that he originally was. McCain was easily associated with the unpopular Bush administration and thats part of the reason why he lost. I see now where I went wrong with NV but Romney is extremely popular in CO so it will be a battleground between Obama and Romney. With moderate Republicans running (Romney being the most conservative GOP candidate of 2008), I dont see the GOP losing as badly (a cushioned fall).

But keep in mind, his record at Bain Capital is still going to be an open goal for any even slightly competent Democratic campaign and Romney himself will still be as piss-poor a communicator as ever. The "he made his pile by buying out companies and firing everyone" line is, if anything, going to resonate even more in the midst of the recession and Romney will probably struggle to respond just like IOTL 2012.

And you're just presuming that Romney would be able to stick to the centre at his leisure. By default he'll struggle with sections of the GOP base, particularly social conservatives. I'd give him good odds of swinging sharply to the right to keep the base on-side and just embarrassing himself in the process.
 
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Romney could probably carry CO and NV in '08 because of Mormon voters. (I forgot to adjust for NV, so Obama actually wins 26 states and Romney wins 24).

He didn't get those in 12, a more favorable election, so Id think not. I don't think there are a lot of mormans that voted in 08 for Obama anyway.
 
Romney losing even worse than McCain might well discredit the "Compassionate Conservative" wing of the GOP, at least in the immediate, and could pave the way for a right-wing candidate. Huckabee, Santorum, the like.
 
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