Rommel's Barbarossa 1942 (Continued from Manstein in Africa)

[phx1138]

...They shall get little to none Land-Lease....

Don't forget the Arctic route. IIRC, most OTL Lend-Lease came in through Murmansk & Arcangel'sk anyhow.

In ref Turkey, Spain, Egypt, Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran, aside oil, do any/all have a capacity, or willingness, to produce trucks &/or armored cars (if not tanks) for the Axis? Even a few thousand wouldn't hurt...

BTW, I agree, Turkey might just join against the SU. She's got long-standing grievances... Except, she's not really a fan of the Nazis.

With the technology-sharing expertise that the Axis is developing, Germany could easily licence its submarine tech to its allies with a good shipbuilding industry. Imagine, a fleet of German-Italo-French-Spanish U-boats rampaging mostly unopposed from Norway to western Africa, to support their surface comrades. I can hear the sobs in the Admiralty.

Actually, just Spanish bases would be a big deal: Bilbao, say? The Canaries? Morocco? Britain had major headaches even without this; adding this, migraines...

no room in the war economy for 4 engine bombers

Nor technical capacity, which IIRC was why von Kesselring opposed them. They look good, but Germany neither needed nor could afford them.

If you need to find a way for the Germans to save some resources, simply kill off the V1 programme. No reason to need a "Vergeltungswaffe" (revenge weapon), now that the Brirish have suffered so many losses.

You mean V-2, I hope. The V-1 had potential tactical applications, too, & cost less than the big bombers, & could actually be built where they couldn't be...

 

[phx1138]

No it is going to be a bit smaller and definently shorter... more like a Panzer 4 on steroids with sloped armor and the pak42 75mm gun

Geez, the interleaved road wheels and front drive sprocket should never have gotten off the drawing board...

... I would instead propose that the tank get a make over and produce the L model. This is the one that would have been made if the Panther had failed or been delaid. It would have the slopped armor on the tank body but would retain a modified Pzkpf IV turret.

On the original chassis, running gear, engine, & transmission? If you can manage the 88, too... I suspect the 88 was too heavy for the chassis, tho; IIRC, the Germans tested & rejected it. The 75mm L/70 will do nicely...

 

[abc123]

your prejudice that Italians are somehow innately and hopelessly inferior in the battlefield. .

No?
In what war did they win?

Oh yes, superpower Ethiopia... Oh shit, they lost first war against Ethiopia...

Albania?

Only 20x smaller state than Italy and about 50x less developed...

Some other? Any?

 

[abc123]

But it wasn't nothing that could not be ironed out by giving the troops adequate equipment and training by using the means you have depicted in this thread, and letting combat experience eliminate the residual dead wood in the officer corps. .

F*** let just replace the whole Italian Army with Wehrmacht, that would certainly improve things...

 

[Jotun]

F*** let just replace the whole Italian Army with Wehrmacht, that would certainly improve things...

Wow, your powers of discussion and rational thoughts really are impressive If you don't have anything constructive to say about Italian troops in battle, but continue spouting the same old bullshit that has been shown to be basically wrong time and again, I strongly suggest a good dose of STFU, available at any drugstore...

 

[abc123]

Wow, your powers of discussion and rational thoughts really are impressive If you don't have anything constructive to say about Italian troops in battle, but continue spouting the same old bullshit that has been shown to be basically wrong time and again, I strongly suggest a good dose of STFU, available at any drugstore...

Fine, I will STFU, but the fact that the Italy has never won any serious war alone stays...

 

[BlairWitch749]

Fine, I will STFU, but the fact that the Italy has never won any serious war alone stays...

they won in ww1... its been discussed in depth that italy suffered from command and equipment weaknesses. there where otl examples of first class italian divisions (after some hand holding from the Germans) being able to hold there own and perform as well as any other division from any country.

this tl expands upon the 3 divisions that where upgraded in otl and has hitler think its a good idea to run with the idea in the entire italian army

 

[abc123]

they won in ww1... its been discussed in depth that italy suffered from command and equipment weaknesses. there where otl examples of first class italian divisions (after some hand holding from the Germans) being able to hold there own and perform as well as any other division from any country.

this tl expands upon the 3 divisions that where upgraded in otl and has hitler think its a good idea to run with the idea in the entire italian army

An excellent timeline dude, respect.
The other two TL-s, also...



On topic, I told ALONE.
F*** army with a few good divisions...

 

[phx1138]

Uh-huh...I can practically see British troop transports running the gauntlet all the way down the European coast, with Axis airpower, surface units and submarines being based and active (read: pounding the crap out of the transports/convoys/whatever) the whole effing way...

Yeh, TTL it would probably look like that, seeing the Axis never make a mistake & the Allies never get anything right. IRL, not so much. Finding convoys is harder than it sounds from the histories, even with air & B-Dienst cracking the convoy cypher. Don't forget, only 7% of ships in convoy were sunk. Recall, too, the TORCH convoy got across completely undetected. TTL, it might be detected enroute, but you can bet there'd be a fight, & it wouldn't all go the Axis way. You might imagine Coral Sea; the U.S. TF commander, unlike Inouye, wouldn't turn back.

I would also expect that the allies would use resources to mine the enterance to the ReD Sea using submarine and or a fast Minelayer.

Good idea, in theory. Do you know how wide the Strait of Hormuz is? (--edit--oops, wrong ocean.) Mining the approaches to Alex, Tobruk, Haifa, & Dakar (for a start) would work. Also, positioning subs at Hormuz, Gib, & the Molucca Strait. TTL, we might see the USN boats sent to Europe deployed there, instead, & actually accomplishing something. We might also see the Oz-based USN boats being more successful, operating in the Indian Ocean, rather than under Japanese air in DEI/SWPA & turning in mostly dry patrols. I'd rather see them pulled back to Pearl to destroy Japan's merchant marine, but I expect the "Germany first" will be even stronger, here. Enough to get Brit warnings & fix the Mk6 exploder problems before September '43, maybe...?

Sea mines of that era were either contact mines (very difficult to use in deeper waters, for obvious reasons)...

They were of moored or floating varieties, don't forget. Bottom-moored contact mines, even in 300m water, wouldn't be useless, & the whole Red Sea (especially the harbor approaches & chokepoints, the vulnerable spots) aren't uniformly that deep.

The closing of the Bab al Mandab would thus be only temporary, I believe.

That's why you renew minefields. And lay new ones. Or, seeing Britain's success fooling the Germans with phony docs, fake ones: charts with marked minefields where there actually aren't any...

... mines with magnetic fuses.

A minor point: they aren't actually fuses, they're exploders... (OK, I'm being picky.)

It would also appear Winston's pipedreams of invading Italy or Yugoslavia will be put paid, thankfully.

Ops across the Pacific & Indian Ocean against Burma, Thailand, Madagascar, Iran, & the Red Sea (via Kenya/Uganda thru the Sudan, or via Ethiopia) look the best options. India, Oz, South Africa, & Kenya can still act as staging bases, & the longer trip length is made up for by the Pacific (still, & likely for the duration) being pretty much a U.S. lake. I don't feature Germany or Japan having the capability to seriously threaten that without ASB-level production increases.

Also, even with american help, it took them two years to gather, train and equip this one division that was sent to Europe... now imagine what will happen when the US has no spare instructors and equipment.

That was also when the situation wasn't nearly so dire as TTL. I daresay Brazil could produce weaps/gear under licence from the U.S. as readily as Italy can... Or Canada. Or Oz.

[When Manstein had discovered that the British had penetrated the German Enigma communication network back in September the Abwer had conducted a brutal self review. What they found was disturbing across the board but one of the most serious revalations was that the British had turned every single agent sent to the home islands under Operation Double Cross. Admiral Canarais planned a retaliatory operation to let the British know what he thought of their games.

And they detect this how, exactly?

And, yet again, more miraculous performances by the Germans & incompetence by the Allies...

...With only 28 destroyers in the Atlantic fleet...

By my math, that's enough to guarantee around 20000 ships safe passage. (Presuming Blackett's OR boys don't persuade RN to enlarge convoys even more. And presuming USN will bother to listen to Nelles & RCN; IIRC, Andrews wouldn't OTL, & lost merchies because of it.) Those surface raiders can't be everywhere. (Oh, wait, TTL I guess they can...) And the Brits don't need to read Enigma to use traffic analysis & HF/DF to track U-boats & raiders; breaking the callsign cypher (not in Enigma, so don't even suggest it) & using air & sub patrols to monitor sorties works nicely, too. Thus, it's possible to avoid most (not all, but most) hostile contacts. And convoys are much harder to find than you appear to think.

 

[phx1138]

Don't forget that was the us economy with only 90 divisions of troops mobilized whereas here they are going to have 250

I missed this before... Where's the U.S. getting the manpower for that? IIRC, the OTL army (90 divisions?) had the U.S. at the limit of available manpower. (That's without a full mobe of blacks, AFAIK, tho.) Do you mean a larger mobe at the expense of production? That also impacts the choice of weapons & the training program. I mean, would there be BBs in service? They absorb enormous amounts of material (which means manpower to produce), as well as crew & training resources. As the Brits learned OTL, airpower is the easiest to ramp up fast, for material & manpower. Also, as I think I've already said, expect changes in tactics & strategy. I'd expect both RAF & USAAF to be averse to losses, so switching to an aerial mining/canal bombing campaign, rather than bombing cities (& taking huge losses to little/no effect), is highly likely IMO.

 

[phx1138]

How about submarine-launched V2s?

You're kidding, right? V-2s were a) enormous b) dangerous (liquid fuels) & c) horrifically expensive. V-1s, OTOH... Can you say Loon? Or Regulus? BTW, seeing the Axis are getting it all going their way, why can't Radioplane develop a sub- or ship (DD?)-launched flying bomb first? The example of the Hurricat & Messercat is there...

 

[phx1138]

As it concerns the Jews...Himmler (Heydrich is a coin's toss: he was quite ruthless, but more pragmatic than Hitler/Himmler) could be rather easily talked into leaving them alive. Ruthlessly exploited, but alive... it is plausible that someone may talk Hitler into postponing the genocide of the Slavs until after final victory, highlighting how much the war effort would be easier if the resources necessary for genocide are spared and the Ukrainians and co. are used as anti-Soviet auxiliaries.

This is an extremely interesting option. Imagine, if you will, 3 million Jewish expendable troops used to (say) clear minefields, the way the Red Army is said to have used penal battalions. Imagine, also, millions of Sov troops turning around, of Russians willing to fight Communists... I have doubts Hitler would do either one. However...

 

[phx1138]

Japan's resource gaps are being partially filled in...

This requires securing sea lines through the Indian ocean. Best way to accomplish this IMHO: take out Britain. Best way to accomplish that in the near term: Japanese take Singapore and Hong Kong...

Actually, it falters on two chokepoints under severe threat from USN, RN, RNN, & RAN subs: the Molucca Strait & the Luzon Strait. OTL, IJN was incompetent to defend convoys for an extended period, & Germany was no better. I see no reason to believe differently TTL. Except that the Axis has gotten so many unjustified breaks.

The axis have half a dozen carriers in the pipeline although only Aquilla will be comissioned in 1942

That puts the ACS at rather a disadvantage. By the end of '43 OTL (TTL, I'd expect the building program to accelerate) there were five Essexex in commission. And the F4U is a match for the FW190. Moreover, the U.S. can train aircrew without hazard or fuel shortages (if needed, by expansion of Alberta oilfields, replacing Venezuela); German fuel supplies are still threatened by Bomber Command.

With axis naval parity (at least) the Germans would be able to fill in a lot of the gaps in Japan's economy and ease the strain on their logistics

How, exactly? Combined Axis shipbuilding wasn't extensive AFAIK, & Japan was barely replacing losses even in the face of awful Mk14 torpedoes. With greater demand (fighting in SU, greater intensity, higher postulated industrial production), logistic strain is even higher. If U-boats can threaten Britain's survival, it's more than true USN, RN, RNN, & RAN boats can Japan's, & IJN was derisively equipped to cope, unlike RN & RCN (even in mid-'42; by the time victory could be declared OTL, around June '43, there was nobody better). As one Japanese admiral remarked, "We improved our ASW measures, & in response, the Americans increased their sinkings." (No, it wasn't causal... )

Route 3 through the Pacific (in Soviet vessels like in OTL) is also unsafe, if Japan declares war on the USSR. The Soviets don't have the resources to organize convoys, thus the US would have to establish a convoy system, while at the same time fighting the Japanese navy.

Not "have to". Did. OTL Sara, for instance, was torpedoed on convoy duty. And the fact is, OTL, Allied convoys were more/less immune to IJN attack; commerce raiding wasn't part of IJN doctrine. (If it had been, Hawaii could've been starved out in a matter of weeks.) U-boats will have a hell of a time in PTO; the distances defy belief, & Type IXs (forget Type VIIs, they shouldn't get out of the North Atlantic, they're so small) are too short-legged. If you plan to operate milch cau boats (milch caue? or cauen?) in PTO, recall Allied HF/DF & traffic analysis could very well detect, locate, & destroy them during rdv. Nor is JN-25 completely secure. Nor will Enigma remain so forever.

King had prudently sent Yorktown and Wasp away from the upcomming battle... they had lost nearly half their aircraft and where stuck with nearly a dozen British orphans.

And there were no F4Fs & brand new TBFs (or old TBDs & SBDs) anywhere in CONUS why, exactly? Oh, and while I can't name a replacement offhand (tho Fletcher & Halsey do come to mind...), why is CinCUS himself commanding this force?

The forces met again in darkness with final control of the atlantic at stake or so they thought. Tirpitz fired star shells that turned night into day and Brinkmann was stunned by what he saw. King's surpise was devastating... using complete radio silence his new battleship Alabama and the H.M.S. Repulse had linked up with him well after darkness. The weather had favored them and until this moment the Germans had been unaware of their presence.

The 14 remaining Fock-Wolfe pilots had very little night experience. However Brinkmann had detailed two of his destroyers to keep launching star shells to aid their observation. King was taken by surprise by this move and his AA guns took time to respond. All 14 craft went after Howe which was manuevering wildly to avoid them. Howe accidently rammed one of her escorting destroyers in the darkness and confusion slicing her in half. AA guns accounted for 5 of her attackers and one midjudged his approach and crashed into Howe's fighting mast sending flaming debris onto the deck below. The other 8 survived to launch their torpedoes, with fantastic handeling Howe twisted and turned her way out of all of their course except the last one which bored into her bow. The hit was at an akward angle and started secondary fires... within only 3 minutes her bow ripped clear of the rest of the ship letting thousands of gallons of sea water into her engineering spaces. Graf Zeppelin and Bauridel turned on their running lights as they left the area at 26 knots and took in the tired and shaken surivors of their flock.

Of course. Another excuse for a wank. USN couldn't possibly have listened to the Brits, who offered the chance to attack Brinkmann's heavies at night with Stringbags, which would be able to achieve considerable surprise, with relatively small hazard to AA at night (compared to daylight). But no... Yet the Germans, with enormously less experience in CV ops (dare I say none at night?) & a/c totally unsuited to night ops, freely launch on a suicide mission.

King ... gave his all and went down with his ship

Not being Japanese or a suicidal idiot (AFAIK), he does this why, exactly? (Given he's not actually at his desk in DC, where he belongs.)

BTW, after your tora hit Norfolk, I'd expect a lot of building programs to've been accelerated, so Essex should already be in the water by now. (That's only a couple of months ahead of schedule.) I also think the likes of Empire McAlpine (sp?) would've been turned into a CVE, oh, going on a year ago, given the Mideast situation... U-boats should find attacking convoys a fair bit hotter.

 

[Monty Burns]

Actually, it falters on two chokepoints under severe threat from USN, RN, RNN, & RAN subs: the Molucca Strait & the Luzon Strait. OTL, IJN was incompetent to defend convoys for an extended period, & Germany was no better. I see no reason to believe differently TTL.

As I said in my post you cited, best way to get convoys through from Europe to Japan or vice versa is TAKE Britain OUT. In this case, you do not have to defend your convoys. And given the defeats Britain suffered, loosing Hong Kong and Singapore may have been sufficient for that task. However, if I remember correctly, I proposed this BEFORE the Axis attacked the US. With the US in, Britain wouldn't accept an armistice.

Nevertheless, with the Suez channel in Axis hands we'd at least see the Axis disturbing Allied transport in the Indian ocean to a much greater scale than IOTL.

 

[phx1138]

As I said in my post you cited, best way to get convoys through from Europe to Japan or vice versa is TAKE Britain OUT. In this case, you do not have to defend your convoys. And given the defeats Britain suffered, loosing Hong Kong and Singapore may have been sufficient for that task. However, if I remember correctly, I proposed this BEFORE the Axis attacked the US. With the US in, Britain wouldn't accept an armistice.

Nevertheless, with the Suez channel in Axis hands we'd at least see the Axis disturbing Allied transport in the Indian ocean to a much greater scale than IOTL.

Uhh...how does taking out Britain negate the impact of USN, RNN, &/or RAN boats? The geography remains the issue. Where do you presume the convoys are going? South of Argentina? Or the short way, across the Indian Ocean & thru the Molucca & Luzon Straits, & the USN/RAN/RNN gauntlet? BTW, if they are routed via Drake Passage, expect the U.S. to put heavy pressure on Argentina & Chile for bases. Fiji, Samoa, New Caledonia, & NZ were already blocking the short route from South America to Japan, & a more easterly route is almost as dangerous, especially since it crosses major Allied convoy routes to NZ, Oz, Hawaii, & Midway...& TTL, probably Vladivostok, too.

 

[phx1138]

All true, and all the more reason why Soviet Russia is screwed ITTL, even if they got one more year of preparation. I would only add that Route 2 and 3 may well not exist in practice. This better prepared Japan could well conquer Vladivostok, thus closing the Pacific route for good. As it concerns Route 2, with the Axis in Iran, and Iran in the Axis, the Allies are only left the land route through Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Quite long and logistically poor.

In practice, Soviet Russia is going to get little to none Land-Lease. With a fully integrated and larger Axis, a well-prepared three-fronts Barbarossa, and no Land Lease... good luck Ivan. You shall need bucketfuls of it.

I really think the threat is exaggerated. Yes, the losses on the Arctic route are liable to be high, perhaps prohibitive. (OTOH, it might prod RN/USN/RCN into early adopting a tanker conversion CVE, which took a lot longer OTL.) The mooted IJN threat to the PTO route is nil, as noted. And IJA's threat to the Red Army, Pz4 or no Pz4, is small IMO; IJA doctrine against armor was incompetent (worse than British doctrine against panzern, hard as that is to believe), & I have no reason to think IJA tank operation doctrine is any better. So Red Army, with better armor & the best AT guns in Asia, shoot the IJA tanks to pieces, in part using lessons learned from the Germans in Europe. Which makes taking Vladivostok extraordinarily unlikely IMO. Or do Red Army officers not communicate across their own country TTL? To their own comrades? Too inconvenient for this wank?

Or are IJA officers miraculously stripped of over a decade's worth of doctrine & training by a week at von Manstein's ASB Magic Training School? Does the same apply to IJN, too? A few days in the overawing presence of Brinkmann, & IJN officers drop their obsession with maneuverable fighters for FW190s & their decades of doctrine & training, all centered on Mahanian "decisive battle", & adopt guerre de course? Of course, IJN ASW mystically gets transformed, too, right? So now it's better than RN/RCN was at the height of the Battle of the Atlantic. And acceptance, & installation, of technology (radar, maybe even sonar) IJN SOs don't even understand is now magically happening, too, right?

Y'know, the basic premise here is a really good one. I like it a lot. It's just, changes like these are huge, & to get changes so big needs equally big influences or a POD much farther back. Too bad. It's getting more & more ridiculous all the time.

 

[Expat]

Why is there even a debate on this thread? The most recent thread is here:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=151626&highlight=mare+nostrum

 

[phx1138]

As I said in my post you cited, best way to get convoys through from Europe to Japan or vice versa is TAKE Britain OUT. In this case, you do not have to defend your convoys. And given the defeats Britain suffered, loosing Hong Kong and Singapore may have been sufficient for that task. However, if I remember correctly, I proposed this BEFORE the Axis attacked the US. With the US in, Britain wouldn't accept an armistice.

Nevertheless, with the Suez channel in Axis hands we'd at least see the Axis disturbing Allied transport in the Indian ocean to a much greater scale than IOTL.

Uhh...how does taking out Britain negate the impact of USN, RNN, &/or RAN boats? The geography remains the issue. Where do you presume the convoys are going? South of Argentina? Or the short way, across the Indian Ocean & thru the Molucca & Luzon Straits, & the USN/RAN/RNN gauntlet? (BTW, if they are routed via Drake Passage, expect the U.S. to put heavy pressure on Argentina & Chile for bases. Fiji, Samoa, New Caledonia, & NZ were already blocking the short route from South America to Japan, & a more easterly route is almost as dangerous, especially since it crosses major Allied convoy routes to NZ, Oz, Hawaii, & Midway...& TTL, probably Vladivostok, too.

 

[Monty Burns]

Uhh...how does taking out Britain negate the impact of USN, RNN, &/or RAN boats?

Simple: As I said before, I proposed this BEFORE the Axis attacked the US. I doubt that the USN would intercept Axis convoys in the Indian ocean without a war going on.

Second, I doubt that Australia or any British Dominion would continue the war with Britain out. Considering the RNN, again, with Britain out, why should they fight on? In Europe, the Netherlands are occupied by the Nazis, the Dutch Netherlands sooner or later occupied by the Japanese, who should they fight with? What bases have they left in the Indian ocean? Do they have a realistic chance to fight the combined fleets of all Axis nations? No.

There was a time where the Axis controled all of continental Europe, and the only enemies left were Britain (RN), its Dominions (RAN) and various "free Europeans" (RNN). Of these, Britain is the major player. Taking Britain out at that point in time would have ended the war and thus allowed for free passage through the Indian ocean. The attack on the US guaranteed that the war goes on and hence RN, RAN and RNN staying in and US Navy joining.

 

[phx1138]

Simple: As I said before, I proposed this BEFORE the Axis attacked the US. I doubt that the USN would intercept Axis convoys in the Indian ocean without a war going on.

Second, I doubt that Australia or any British Dominion would continue the war with Britain out. Considering the RNN, again, with Britain out, why should they fight on? In Europe, the Netherlands are occupied by the Nazis, the Dutch Netherlands sooner or later occupied by the Japanese, who should they fight with? What bases have they left in the Indian ocean? Do they have a realistic chance to fight the combined fleets of all Axis nations? No.

There was a time where the Axis controled all of continental Europe, and the only enemies left were Britain (RN), its Dominions (RAN) and various "free Europeans" (RNN). Of these, Britain is the major player. Taking Britain out at that point in time would have ended the war and thus allowed for free passage through the Indian ocean. The attack on the US guaranteed that the war goes on and hence RN, RAN and RNN staying in and US Navy joining.

It appears we were talking past each other. For me, the issue was the impact on convoys with Japan & U.S. (& others) at war. I do agree, RN might stop if Britain were knocked out. Or HMG might withdraw & fight on. (I'm less sure the Commonwealth would follow her into a peace deal. Would Oz, after being attacked by Japan? I have my doubts. Canada was such a weak sister, it's impossible to know.) Bases? How does Oz grab you? Fiji? Samoa? Hawaii?

Moscow is an important city but not as much as Paris for France, London for England or even Berlin for Germany (population difference in that period between Berlin and Moscow was less than 1 millions, not 10).

It isn't population that's at issue, it's the amount of industry around the city, & the number of road/rail links that run through there. That's why OKH wanted to take it.

To weigh in on the Italian Army issue, IMO their equipment was the worst in the world at the time. And their SOs were exceeded only by IJA in being terrible. Given reasonably competent leadership, training, & equipment, I have no doubt Italians could've fought as effectively as just about anybody. (I give the Germans the edge over everybody else thanks to better training & doctrine, not due to any "national character". History & ops research bears it out: they had about a 20% edge, even in '45.)

And with that, thank you all very much for listening.