Rommel's Barbarossa 1942 (Continued from Manstein in Africa)

[Seraph]

Wouldn't Soviets operational and strategic skill on the offensive be much weaker then OTL as well? They were the first to come up with the operational level of command and fighting.

 

[BlairWitch749]

Wouldn't Soviets operational and strategic skill on the offensive be much weaker then OTL as well? They were the first to come up with the operational level of command and fighting.

Yes there certainly will be an element of that. To give an example Marshal Budenny is commanding one of the fronts ... Stalin doesn't know yet that he is useless. The army other than its experience in Finland which they had a decent amount of time to digest is unblooded and inexperienced, so there will be some mistakes

 

[BlairWitch749]

I am not certain if the Soviets would fare better while being on the offensive than while being in the defensive. If WWII demonstrated one thing, it's that the Germans were the true masters of defense. In OTL they managed to hold off superior forces in almost every theatre of operations for long times. Their defense actually only collapsed, when they were met by vastly superior forces (like during the outbreak from Normandy, the second battle of El Alamein or during Army Group's Center demise in 1944).
One thing that will be different in this ATL will be the air war in the Eastern Front. Without the OTL destruction of the Soviet air force on the first day of Barbarossa, the Germans will havd a tougher time against the Soviets in the air.
On the ither hand they will be facing an inexperienced army, led by mediocre generals (still recovering from the purges), being on the offensive. My gighest doubts concerning the Red Army's abilities have to do with its logistics. I am not convinced, that the Red Army has the logistics capability to pull off such a great offensive without running out of fuel or ammo soon. If the Luftwaffe exploits that weakness by killing supply trains and bombing supply as well as rail depots, the Soviets are screwed.

BTW Whats the state of the Axis allied armies on the Eastern Front? Are they in place yet?

Effectively the axis armies are in place except for the new French expeditionary corps and the equivilent of an axis mixed corps which was dispatched to Gibraltar

Although the next book will go into greater detail I can divulge that Hitler had been worried about Stalin doing a premptive attack and whilst his divisions rotated out for their training missions, they build defensive lines and fortifications along the border

 

[BlairWitch749]

I am not certain if the Soviets would fare better while being on the offensive than while being in the defensive. If WWII demonstrated one thing, it's that the Germans were the true masters of defense. In OTL they managed to hold off superior forces in almost every theatre of operations for long times. Their defense actually only collapsed, when they were met by vastly superior forces (like during the outbreak from Normandy, the second battle of El Alamein or during Army Group's Center demise in 1944).
One thing that will be different in this ATL will be the air war in the Eastern Front. Without the OTL destruction of the Soviet air force on the first day of Barbarossa, the Germans will havd a tougher time against the Soviets in the air.
On the ither hand they will be facing an inexperienced army, led by mediocre generals (still recovering from the purges), being on the offensive. My gighest doubts concerning the Red Army's abilities have to do with its logistics. I am not convinced, that the Red Army has the logistics capability to pull off such a great offensive without running out of fuel or ammo soon. If the Luftwaffe exploits that weakness by killing supply trains and bombing supply as well as rail depots, the Soviets are screwed.

BTW Whats the state of the Axis allied armies on the Eastern Front? Are they in place yet?

Not shooting up aircraft on the ground isn't a big deal. I have read accounts pointing out that the Germans wasted their bombs on a large number of obsolete machines and this gave the Russians a pool of reserve pilots to transfer to the newer models becomming available.

The only thing out of place really is the striking power of the axis airforce which was moving into spain in pretty considerable numbers

 

[Eurofed]

BW, a timing question:

Am I right in understanding that the Soviet attack happens before the scheduled Axis strategic conference that was called about the Canarias ?

If so, this can be the perfect time and place for a general revision of Axis grand strategy in light of recent events: Allied invasion of the Canarias and naval situation in Atlantic after the recent battle, French Axis belligerance, Soviet attack. It seems that Hitler & Co. and their generals shall have a lot to discuss.

And so in book 4, you can gift us with another nifty description of those Axis strategic conferences I have come to enjoy much.

 

[BlairWitch749]

BW, a timing question:

Am I right in understanding that the Soviet attack happens before the scheduled Axis strategic conference that was called about the Canarias ?

If so, this can be the perfect time and place for a general revision of Axis grand strategy in light of recent events: Allied invasion of the Canarias and naval situation in Atlantic after the recent battle, French Axis belligerance, Soviet attack. It seems that Hitler & Co. and their generals shall have a lot to discuss.

And so in book 4, you can gift us with another nifty description of those Axis strategic conferences I have come to enjoy much.

You are correct... this occured just before the ASC meeting to gameplan the canary operation so it seems a lot more will be on their plate. Book 3 will catch up to this point and go past it so the waiting shouldn't be unbearable

 

[MUC]

Why do the Axis need all that air power and a full Corps to take out the Canary Islands?

The islands are isolated by now using both U-Boats and the Axis surface fleet.
The Allied garrisson cannot hope to fight a long battle before running out of ammo. Since there are several islands to defend, it will be difficult for the Allies to concentrate forces quickly in the event of Axis invasion of one of the affected islands (I presume the Axis wont invade all islands at once).

Did the Allies stage any fighters on the Canary Islands and if yes how did they pull it off? From what I can see on the map the Canary Islands are far away from any Allied controlled base, thus fighter aircraft can only be transported there in crates aboard merchant ships and assembled on spot or launched from aircraft carriers on ferry missions to the islands (ala Malta in OTL). Since there are not many Allied carriers available, I presume that the last option is out of the question.

With Vichy France now entering the war on the Axis side, the Axis don't need to stage their air raids from Spain against the Canary Islands. Morocco was Vichy France controlled during World War II, until the Allies invaded it in OTL during Operation Torch. The Axis air forces can redeploy to Morocco, thus placing the Canary Islands within optimal range of their aircraft (on Google Maps Las Palmas is approximately 200 km from the Moroccan coast). If the Allies do not have fighters in the Canary Islands, the Axis air forces have air supremacy and may use older bombers (even Stukas) to pound the Allies.

The Axis may even demand the surrender of the Allied garrisson after a couple of days of bombing, which may happen, if the Allies don't have any chance or reinforcing and resupplying the garrisson.

Thus the redeployment of Luftwaffe assets to counter the Soviet invasion should happen swiftly.

The Canary Islands invasion was a huge gamble for the Allies and resulted into a fiasco at this crucial point during the war.
IMHO they should have gone for the Azores instead, even if that meant drawing Portugal into the Axis.
"An island chain too far" (like "A bridge too far") may be what ATL historians will call the operation after WWII ends.

 

[BlairWitch749]

Why do the Axis need all that air power and a full Corps to take out the Canary Islands?

The islands are isolated by now using both U-Boats and the Axis surface fleet.
The Allied garrisson cannot hope to fight a long battle before running out of ammo. Since there are several islands to defend, it will be difficult for the Allies to concentrate forces quickly in the event of Axis invasion of one of the affected islands (I presume the Axis wont invade all islands at once).

Did the Allies stage any fighters on the Canary Islands and if yes how did they pull it off? From what I can see on the map the Canary Islands are far away from any Allied controlled base, thus fighter aircraft can only be transported there in crates aboard merchant ships and assembled on spot or launched from aircraft carriers on ferry missions to the islands (ala Malta in OTL). Since there are not many Allied carriers available, I presume that the last option is out of the question.

With Vichy France now entering the war on the Axis side, the Axis don't need to stage their air raids from Spain against the Canary Islands. Morocco was Vichy France controlled during World War II, until the Allies invaded it in OTL during Operation Torch. The Axis air forces can redeploy to Morocco, thus placing the Canary Islands within optimal range of their aircraft (on Google Maps Las Palmas is approximately 200 km from the Moroccan coast). If the Allies do not have fighters in the Canary Islands, the Axis air forces have air supremacy and may use older bombers (even Stukas) to pound the Allies.

The Axis may even demand the surrender of the Allied garrisson after a couple of days of bombing, which may happen, if the Allies don't have any chance or reinforcing and resupplying the garrisson.

Thus the redeployment of Luftwaffe assets to counter the Soviet invasion should happen swiftly.

The Canary Islands invasion was a huge gamble for the Allies and resulted into a fiasco at this crucial point during the war.
IMHO they should have gone for the Azores instead, even if that meant drawing Portugal into the Axis.
"An island chain too far" (like "A bridge too far") may be what ATL historians will call the operation after WWII ends.

Its a mixed corps... a German infantry regiment, the Italian marine division, a German armored regiment and a Spanish infantry division.... they don't heavily outnumber the garison they are going to attack so it isn't out of place and full moon validated the idea of having overwhelming air control before an island invasion

In addition to the 9th infantry division plus specialists troops the British landed two dozen Spitfire MK V edition aircraft which where supporting the B-24's that flew in at night from the UK direct

you are correct in noting that the axis will be able to deploy their airpower very close to the point of attack earily similar to crete from otl

their attempts to reconquer the islands will be picked up in the later stages of book 3

 

[Wyragen-TXRG4P]

The Axis spent its extra year building ships AND preparing for Barbarossa, in equal amounts. Reread the thread, please.

Equal amounts? IOTL, most of the effort went into supporting an active war in the east, which is why the attempts on Egypt was lost.

Not really. Even according to Kennedy's calculations, which underestimate Germany's potential, and certainly do so for TTL's Italy, Spain, and France, the Axis has nearly triple the warmaking potential of the USSR. Manpowerwise, Russia is matched.

The problem is not underestimating German potential (over twice more than Britan and France put together) but overestimating the potential of the other axis powers.
France is barely at 40% of the German potential, haven´t been fully integrated nor uppgraded yet.
Italy is better of but potential is much lower than that of the French.
Spain is lucky to contribute half as much as the Italians, with far more efforts being necessary to fill the qualitative gap with German industry. Per capita, Hungaria and Romania are better of, probably, but demographically doesn´t even reach 50% of Spain and 1/5 of Germany.
Biggest addition is Japan, only one with a population similar to that of Germany and a fanatical one at that, but its land armies are simply poor, having difficulties dealing with even such a puny foe as the chinese "nationalists".
Japanese did not attack IOTL partly because they knew they had been getting behind the Siberian divisions for years.
To really turn the tables and push steadily forward, the Japanese will need proper trucks, artillery, fuel, ammunitions, armored cars, operate enough supplies etc. Thus, uppgrading their production as quickly as possible. A shipement of Panzers or aircrafts is going to be a gain but just a gain.
So no, total warmaking potential is not anywhere near close to 3 times that of the Soviet-Union, not even 3 times that of Germany!

No, but they could be knocked into China levels, stopping to be a worthwhile military adversary and becoming a big insurgency problem.

Moscow is an important city but not as much as Paris for France, London for England or even Berlin for Germany (population difference in that period between Berlin and Moscow was less than 1 millions, not 10).
Leningrad, a city that had less defences available prooved pretty hard to seize, its contribution to the sovietic war effort was neutralised but that didn´t allow any collapse of the front in the region.

As I said in another thread, the amount of anti-Italian prejudice that plagues this board is angering and appalling.

Italian soldiers fought as bravely and competently as the ones of any other WWII nation, ask Rommel. If they sometimes suffered demoralization, it was the natural effect of having inferior equipment and doctrine. Those problems have been eradicated ITTL. And morale in the army and the public is at an all-time high given the unbroken string of victories.

Not writing that every single Italian soldiers ran like a rabbite but let us repeat it, did the Italians have inferior equipement to the Greeks? Not only did the Greeks stop them but pushed them back into Albania and would have completely won hadn´t Hitler and the the rest of the axis stormed in and saved the day.
Rommel wasn´t the only to have opinions, other have used words such as "theater", "comedy" or "worst than useless". That is why "anti-Italian prejudice" exist.

They could do much better with unrestricted oil availability. For once, Hitler shall deem Baku a relatively unimportant secondary objective instead of the OTL obsession.

His obsession was quiet justified, seizing the region would have deprived the Soviet-Union of much needed oil. Even more justified in this timeline, since there is no sovietic presence in northern Iran and oilfields in western Siberia possibly within the range of bombers based in Iran.

Franco did a rather thorough job of uprooting them. That was the whole point of the Civil War.

They have been routed militarily but a far too large segment of the population remains against fascisme, they would only desert if sent to the front. Attempting to use republican veterans, ah eh...

I meant that with sizable Italian, Spanish, French, Hungarian, Romanian corps at German level of effectiveness, a large part of OTL Barbarossa's militayr burden is lifted off the backs of German troops, which are freed to do more on their own. I was not referring to Middle East, except to say that with it conquered, the Axis only needs to do garrison duty, defend Iran, and open Barbarossa's second front. Italy is able to engage the bulk of its *efficient* army to Barbarossa.

Mussolini sent plenty of forces east, IOTL, one have to consider the number of Italians casualties to the battle of Stalingrad alone. Opening a second in the caucase? Terrain there does not allow for blitzkrieg tactics, an attempted campaign there would result in a bloody stalemath.
Stirling´s book, Marching Through Georgia made a point on the terrain-related difficulties there, enough for one German army to threaten the advance of of the mighty Drakas.

Remember that Stalin has three fronts.

Remember what these fronts are. One a backwater, the other is an open and overused toilet seat beckoning.

Stalin letting American troops in Soviet territory is something I am going to read multiple times before I can believe it.

A half-frozen, unpopulated peninsula?? That is sure going to make him sweat!
IOTL, the Soviet-union was neutral in the US-Japanese war, seized bombers that landed in Siberia, in this case...

My point is that the Soviet war effort could not be better than OTL. They did the very high-end of their possibilities. With the single exception of the extra year, TTL is piling up differences that make the Axis better vs. the Soviets, or make the Soviets worse by killing Land-Lease off.

 

[Eurofed]

France is barely 40%, haven´t been fully integrated nor uppgraded yet.
Italy is better of but potential is much lower than that of the French.

Our 1940s industrial potential was substantially (but not radically, we were about 50%) inferior to French one, sure, but manpower pool was wholly comparable.

Moscow is an important city but not as much as Paris for France, London for England or even Berlin for Germany (population difference in that period between Berlin and Moscow was less than 1 millions, not 10).

The point is that the amount of manpower and industry that the Soviet Union had beyond the Urals was barely sufficient to make it a very big modern Spain, perhaps. They have no hope of fielding an army that could take on Germany, much less whole Axis Europe, with that. Like Nationalist China, they would be forced to rely on supporting insurgency behind Axis lines and launching the occasional guerrilla raid through them.

Rommel wasn´t the only to have opinions, other have used words such as "theater", "comedy" or "worst than useless".

Ok, that's it, I don't see why I should waste my time trying a debate with someone that has such barely-concealed racist prejudices against my people. It obvious that you cherry pick evidence to prop your prejudice that Italians are somehow innately and hopelessly inferior in the battlefield. I generally am far from a nationalist, but your attitude annoys me more than I care to bear.



Welcome to my ignore list.

 

[Eurofed]

You are correct... this occured just before the ASC meeting to gameplan the canary operation so it seems a lot more will be on their plate. Book 3 will catch up to this point and go past it so the waiting shouldn't be unbearable

Cool. I'm eager to read about France's share of the Axis integrated war effort and the plans for a defensive and counterattack Barbarossa.

Its a mixed corps... a German infantry regiment, the Italian marine division, a German armored regiment and a Spanish infantry division.... they don't heavily outnumber the garison they are going to attack so it isn't out of place and full moon validated the idea of having overwhelming air control before an island invasion

In addition to the 9th infantry division plus specialists troops the British landed two dozen Spitfire MK V edition aircraft which where supporting the B-24's that flew in at night from the UK direct

you are correct in noting that the axis will be able to deploy their airpower very close to the point of attack earily similar to crete from otl

their attempts to reconquer the islands will be picked up in the later stages of book 3

Also good. It shall be an interesting battle to read about. Hopefully, just like the Allies learned a trick or two from the meatgrinders, so the Axis picked some good clues from Full Moon.

 

[BlairWitch749]

It should be noted that Rommel, Kesselring and the OKW shared a low opinion of the Commando Supremo (it would seem this was justified)

In regards to the rank and file and the field divisions the story wasn't the same

Ariette and Trieste after serving with the Africa Corps for many months became excellent field divisions that Rommel felt confident in. They where well handled at Gazalla and the following battles

The Livorno division in Sicily, after being trained by the 15th Panzergrenadier and the Hermann Goering Panzer division performed up to par... Hube issued quite a bit of praise to that formation

It seemed that the Italian field divisions, provided they where experienced and well led could hold their own... albeit they definently needed some hand holding to get started. That failing falls on Hitler and Mussolini for trying wage parallel war as opposed to coalition war. Hitler had an excellent formation used for training purposed called the wacht regiment. This regiment was periodically rotated to the front so that its instructors where always abreast of combat developments. This unit did a tremendous amount of tutoring and instruction for the German Army. That formation or another one like it should have been lent to the Italians for training purposes so that their field divisions could shake themselves out BEFORE being sent into combat

 

[Eurofed]

It should be noted that Rommel, Kesselring and the OKW shared a low opinion of the Commando Supremo (it would seem this was justified)

In regards to the rank and file and the field divisions the story wasn't the same

Ariette and Trieste after serving with the Africa Corps for many months became excellent field divisions that Rommel felt confident in. They where well handled at Gazalla and the following battles

The Livorno division in Sicily, after being trained by the 15th Panzergrenadier and the Hermann Goering Panzer division performed up to par... Hube issued quite a bit of praise to that formation

It seemed that the Italian field divisions, provided they where experienced and well led could hold their own... albeit they definently needed some hand holding to get started. That failing falls on Hitler and Mussolini for trying wage parallel war as opposed to coalition war. Hitler had an excellent formation used for training purposed called the wacht regiment. This regiment was periodically rotated to the front so that its instructors where always abreast of combat developments. This unit did a tremendous amount of tutoring and instruction for the German Army. That formation or another one like it should have been lent to the Italians for training purposes so that their field divisions could shake themselves out BEFORE being sent into combat

This is quite true, and I eagerly subscribe it. No question that OTL WWII Italian army had rather serious equipment, doctrine, and officer quality problems. But it wasn't nothing that could not be ironed out by giving the troops adequate equipment and training by using the means you have depicted in this thread, and letting combat experience eliminate the residual dead wood in the officer corps. What infuriates me is argumenting that even AFTER doing that, Italian soldiers would have remained substantially inferior, because they lacked bravery or military attitude or combat skill, or had some other kind of innate deficiency. This has been strongly implied, and it is a racist prejudice I cannot stand.

 

[BlairWitch749]

This is quite true, and I eagerly subscribe it. No question that OTL WWII Italian army had rather serious equipment, doctrine, and officer quality problems. But it wasn't nothing that could not be ironed out by giving the troops adequate equipment and training by using the means you have depicted in this thread, and letting combat experience eliminate the residual dead wood in the officer corps. What infuriates me is argumenting that even AFTER doing that, Italian soldiers would have remained substantially inferior, because they lacked bravery or military attitude or combat skill, or had some other kind of innate deficiency. This has been strongly implied, and it is a racist prejudice I cannot stand.

I don't think it comes from rascism par say... the Italians where burdened with a poor reputation in WW1 and WW2. Their political establishment and military high command where the chief villans to be blamed for this. Caporetto was easily avoidable but Luigi Cadorna was a souless jackass and aligned his formations in such a way that they couldn't defend themselves. The previous 11 battles of the Izonso whilst incompetent from a command perspective didn't earn the rank and file any charges of cowardice or shame.

The large numbers of troops surrendering or deserting during Caporetto was strangly analagus to the French mutiny of 1917... the soldiers where tired of being slaughtered for no purpose and after years of serving admirably where tired of being treated like crap.

ww2 is much the same boat... Mussolini in his desire to have a new Roman Empire and 8 million bayonets expanded his military far beyond Italy's industrial complex to adequetly kit them out. He also suffered from severe vanity like Hitler himself and refused German help at critical points when it could have made a HUGE difference.

He declined a German air corps and mechanized corps BEFORE operation compass hit him like a ton of bricks. If there where Germans on the line then the British would have been thrown back and the Italians would still have had the cream of their Libyan army to continue the advance. Without the devastating morale hit from operation compass their entire military performance might have played out differently

 

[Eurofed]

Regarding what to do of Hitler, I got an idea. During WWII, there were all kinds of zany schemes to assassinate leaders of both sides. E.g. there was a plot to assassinate Allied leaders during the Tehran Conference. None came to fruition for various reasons, with the exceptions of Yamamoto and Heydrich. What if during some future ASC, an American black ops assassinates the Axis leaders (Hitler, Mussolini, Franco, and Petain) ? It would be a big Allied morale coup, esp. for revenge-minded America, and retaliation for Tiger. At the same time, it would allow a new, perhaps better crop of Axis leaders to come to the fore, and it would a revenge morale boost for the Axis nations. It seems a wild idea, yet in some ways not really more than Tiger.

Of course, it would only be really feasible if the ASC takes place someplace that Allied operatives can have a plausible logistic chance of infiltrating, like France or Spain, and it would require a suitably long and complex preparation. Moreover, in order not to cripple Axis leadership too much, and lose none of the TL stars, the slaughter ought not to involve key generals (ie. no Rommel, Manstein, Brinkmann, or Bastico among the victims).

Such an attack would probably move the Axis new leaders (Goring or a general for Germany, Ciano, Balbo, or a general for Italy, Laval for France, Serrano Suner for Spain) to take some nasty reprisals, just like the Americans did after Tiger. Probably a permanent "Commando Order" denying PoW status to Allied commandoes.

I freely admit I have no idea if the operation is really feasible logistically or not, but it just seems to fit the TL's themes.

 

[phx1138]

Very quickly 38 merchant ships were sunk along with their vital war materials.

No way. Do you have any idea how hard it is to catch & sink 38 ships? Especially for only 3 heavies?

I think the british would attempt an air attack, suffer a massive defeat when 3/4 of the planes sent are shut down by the very efficient german FLAK, and then the british turn back to wait for reinforcement and try to track the germans but loose them in a storm and the germans, they then decide to go escort the next convoy with most of the ships while the Hermes goes back to port in order to get new planes and airmen, maybe not even going into port but having planes land as far from land as possible before going to the convoy while other british ships are supposed to meet them. Then a german sub detect the convoy and the Kriegsmarine goes toward it, sink most of the warships but many cargo escapes and the german go home due to lack of shells and some damages on capital ships. Then on the way home they fall on the british reinforcements to the convoy and have a battle where the german loose one or two ships but savage the british force

does that look like a possible scenario ?

It does. Except the chances of a sub detecting them are mightily low. And weren't Brinkmann's orders to avoid engaging heavies?

B-24's were being sent the allies at this time and that aircraft featured significant anti ship capability I don't know how many were stationed in New Foundland and other parts of Canada at that time but threat was real enough. The B-26 was also starting to become available and this would have the ability to do serious damage to a naval task force

At the time, there were no B-24s (VLR Liberators) in Newfoundland (not part of Canada til 1949, don't forget.) Nor AFAIK were any B-26s ever stationed in Canada or NF.

The RCAF operated the Bolingbroke ( which was a version of the Blenheim) it also operated the PBY as part of it patrols of the Atlantic. It does not appear that the B-24 was operated by the RCAF units in Canada.

Late in the Atlantic war ('43-4, IIRC), there were a couple of squadrons in NF.

Your operation Tiger, I'm afraid, is making this look ridiculous. (Even though the hell for leather raid on the East Coast does kinda appeal to me.) The level of German-Japanese co-ordination OTL was near zero; even getting a deal to base U-boats in Japanese-controlled territory was problematic, let alone actual joint ops. Also, what Japan wanted wasn't British territory as much as victory in China; attacking the Dutch, Brits, & U.S. if she can get rubber, tin, & oil from Germany (& it wasn't only oil she wanted), she's far less need to attack the DEI & provoke war with Britain/U.S. OTOH, she'd happily have attacked SU in '41, if Hitler hadn't bungled it so badly, & his delaying it into '42 is only going to make it worse when Barbarossa does go off (which won't encourage Japan at all...) If, however, a deal includes technology, which is all Japan really wanted from the Germans anyhow, you might get Japan to agree to attack; it would have to include armor & especially AT guns, 'cause IJA was laughably bad compared to the Sovs.

Graf Zeppelin had finally been completed and was undergoing her trials and final shake downs and equipment fixes. The JU-87R had proven itself unworkable. It's low speed, light payload, fixed landing gear, vulnerability to fighters and AA, had shown it to be an obsolete bird. The new Focke Wolfe 190 series F had shown far more promise. With sturdy wide track landing gear and the ability to carry 3 SC500 bombs or a heavy torpedo it had shown itself to be a superior naval aircraft. It was decided that the Zeppelin airgroup should be exclusively equipped with the FW-190F which would operate in a fighter, bomber, torpedo bomber, and recon role. Due to its unsuitability for wing folding the air group was forced to be reduced in size to 33 aircraft.

Experienced bomber and fighter pilots who had been through programs for Graf Zeppelin since 1939 made up the fleigergruppe Graf Zeppelin. Operation Tiger would be their first true mission. After attacking Norfolk the ship would steam rapidly out of range and link up with Brinkmann's Vulture taskforce with the goal of knocking Britain out of the war by destroying her supply lines from the USA. Not to be outdone or to not contribute to Britain's downfall, Italy would also simultaneously dispatch Vittorio Venito, Zara, Fiume and 5 destroyers via Gibraltar into the Atlantic to interdict the long supply route around cape that was nourishing the struggling British forces of the middle east.

With so little training time, those naval aviators are going to be dead ducks on their first combat hop. They may launch successfully (or not...), but they're extremely likely to hit the ramp on recovery. You'd do better to crew her with IJNAF aviators & aircraft for Tiger.

Kriegsmarine command conference, St. Nazaire France March 1942

If the Japanese are so desperate to attack the Brits, why haven't they attacked Pearl Harbor, yet?

The Japanese destroyer Fubuki would don British colors and flags and attack the Panama canal. (She had over 200 tonnes of explosives in her hull and would ram the lockes and then detonate herself) Special operation forces would disembark during dash and place explosive charges on the pump stations and do as much damage as possible.

Fubuki? Why aren't the Japanese using an old Momo? Or a freighter?

Having these valuable ships in port severely impacted convoy defense as the U-boats of Admiral Donitz operated beyond the range of British land based airpower and sunk ships at a dangerous rate.

Since when? Unless there are German heavies attacking, 'vettes & the rare DD is plenty against U-boats. Not to say there are enough of either.

Help was on the way in the form of escort carriers which the British where building at rapid pace with the first one converted from the German prize Hanover expected to enter service within 3 months.

Since when? AFAIK, RN hadn't even considered CVEs yet. And converting a tanker made far more sense. Or maybe a bulk ore/grain carrier. Either way, the cargo wouldn't be reduced much, & they could operate 3-4 TSR Stringbags, plenty good enough against U-boats.

And, as noted, how does Tiger avoid being detected by PBYs 700nm out? USN doesn't have to engage, just be on alert. 4 USN CVs will handily wipe the floor with anything the Germans can throw at them, 'cause USN has been doing carrier ops for a decade, & Graf Zep & her airwing are so raw they'd make sashimi look overdone.

They surged out of the bay of biscay...A curious British recon aircraft noticed their departure the following morning

One aircraft? When Coastal Command is blanketing the Bay of Biscay with air patrols to detect U-boats?

...meet up with Graf Zeppelin in three days a mere 650 miles from the American coast.

Well within range of detection by PBYs... I smell Midway coming.

...about 800 miles off shore. After running low on fuel the American's departed breathing a sigh of relief after a dangerous game of blind man's bluff.

How did they get there so fast? Teleportation? And run out of fuel despite being expert at refuelling at sea (which the Germans AFAIK were not)?

...the St. Lawerence Seaway and sabotage it ...

Dr. Who is a Nazi? The Seaway wouldn't even be started for over a decade...

Whilst the eastern seaboard experienced the horrors of war, the 6 fast carriers of the 1st Japanese carrier fleet approached Pear Harbor. Compelled to wait a couple of hours behind their the German comrades due to the time zone differences they sent out their first powerful wave of level bombers, dive bombers and fighters just before dawn. Sketchy information started to reach the Pacific fleet about a German carrier attack on Norfolk and general alert 1 was ordered. Unfortunately the fleet was unbuttoned due to a pending inspection and many soldiers had been given leave following an intense training regiment. AA ammunition was still being distributed and critical hatches where still being closed when over 100 aircraft came to the harbor.

Japanese Zero fighters made straffing runs against the Pearl Harbor airfields quickly dispatching large numbers of American fighters on the ground. Level and dive bombers made passes at battleship row and the carrier docks. USS Arizona and Nevada where sunk by bombs and torpedoes. California and Pennsylvania where severely damaged along with Honolulu and San Francisco. The main strength of the strike was directed at the carrier Enterprise which sat at her moorings. Her hull withstood 4 bombs which started fires, but a lurking Japanese minisubmarine but a pair of torpedoes in her side that forced her to settle in the harbor mud. A second wave further damaged the battleships and hit several more cruisers but in turn lost heavily to AA fire. Admiral Nagumo decided against a third raid that was to be aimed at the machine shops, dry docks and fuel transfer station fearing that he had allready lost too many pilots and that he would be spotted and destroyed

This is ASB convenient. How does Nagumo avoid stumbling into an exercise in progress? Why is most of the Fleet in harbor? Why is Enterprise? Shouldn't she be exercising? Or ferrying F2As to Wake, or something? Why doesn't Ward detect that minisub & Rochefort connect it to the "rumor" of German CVs? Better still, why doesn't Kimmel raise his alert level off the "war warning" DC (probably) sent him within the last 24hr?

...I-19 which had been shadowing USS Saratoga near Wake Island ...

You do realize, don't you, subs are vastly slower than carriers? And, after being forced to dive, extremely easy to evade while running at high speed?

The Yorktown battlegroup spotted Graf Zeppelin but again all they could do was tell the British that the Germans where at sea.

Wrong. They could keep contact & continue to report. Which means, when Graf Zep starts launching towards Norfolk, Yorktown launches in defense of the homeland & fight's on. And GZ is junk in a matter of minutes.

 

[chris N]

phx1138 Bravo for pointing out the problems with this scenario.

 

[BlairWitch749]

No way. Do you have any idea how hard it is to catch & sink 38 ships? Especially for only 3 heavies?

It does. Except the chances of a sub detecting them are mightily low. And weren't Brinkmann's orders to avoid engaging heavies?

At the time, there were no B-24s (VLR Liberators) in Newfoundland (not part of Canada til 1949, don't forget.) Nor AFAIK were any B-26s ever stationed in Canada or NF.

Late in the Atlantic war ('43-4, IIRC), there were a couple of squadrons in NF.

Your operation Tiger, I'm afraid, is making this look ridiculous. (Even though the hell for leather raid on the East Coast does kinda appeal to me.) The level of German-Japanese co-ordination OTL was near zero; even getting a deal to base U-boats in Japanese-controlled territory was problematic, let alone actual joint ops. Also, what Japan wanted wasn't British territory as much as victory in China; attacking the Dutch, Brits, & U.S. if she can get rubber, tin, & oil from Germany (& it wasn't only oil she wanted), she's far less need to attack the DEI & provoke war with Britain/U.S. OTOH, she'd happily have attacked SU in '41, if Hitler hadn't bungled it so badly, & his delaying it into '42 is only going to make it worse when Barbarossa does go off (which won't encourage Japan at all...) If, however, a deal includes technology, which is all Japan really wanted from the Germans anyhow, you might get Japan to agree to attack; it would have to include armor & especially AT guns, 'cause IJA was laughably bad compared to the Sovs.

With so little training time, those naval aviators are going to be dead ducks on their first combat hop. They may launch successfully (or not...), but they're extremely likely to hit the ramp on recovery. You'd do better to crew her with IJNAF aviators & aircraft for Tiger.


If the Japanese are so desperate to attack the Brits, why haven't they attacked Pearl Harbor, yet?

Fubuki? Why aren't the Japanese using an old Momo? Or a freighter?

Since when? Unless there are German heavies attacking, 'vettes & the rare DD is plenty against U-boats. Not to say there are enough of either.

Since when? AFAIK, RN hadn't even considered CVEs yet. And converting a tanker made far more sense. Or maybe a bulk ore/grain carrier. Either way, the cargo wouldn't be reduced much, & they could operate 3-4 TSR Stringbags, plenty good enough against U-boats.

And, as noted, how does Tiger avoid being detected by PBYs 700nm out? USN doesn't have to engage, just be on alert. 4 USN CVs will handily wipe the floor with anything the Germans can throw at them, 'cause USN has been doing carrier ops for a decade, & Graf Zep & her airwing are so raw they'd make sashimi look overdone.


One aircraft? When Coastal Command is blanketing the Bay of Biscay with air patrols to detect U-boats?


Well within range of detection by PBYs... I smell Midway coming.

How did they get there so fast? Teleportation? And run out of fuel despite being expert at refuelling at sea (which the Germans AFAIK were not)?

Dr. Who is a Nazi? The Seaway wouldn't even be started for over a decade...

This is ASB convenient. How does Nagumo avoid stumbling into an exercise in progress? Why is most of the Fleet in harbor? Why is Enterprise? Shouldn't she be exercising? Or ferrying F2As to Wake, or something? Why doesn't Ward detect that minisub & Rochefort connect it to the "rumor" of German CVs? Better still, why doesn't Kimmel raise his alert level off the "war warning" DC (probably) sent him within the last 24hr?

You do realize, don't you, subs are vastly slower than carriers? And, after being forced to dive, extremely easy to evade while running at high speed?

Wrong. They could keep contact & continue to report. Which means, when Graf Zep starts launching towards Norfolk, Yorktown launches in defense of the homeland & fight's on. And GZ is junk in a matter of minutes.

1. 38 ships is nothing, when they encounter a convoy with 50 plus ships and get the element of surprise
2. depending on which battle it was Brinkmann's orders where not the same on all sorties
3. we discussed that there where no b24s or b26s in canada during the war... however with a serious surface threat, it isn't unreasonable to transfer a few squadrons worth to increase the lethality and range of patrols from canadian bases not asb at all
4. the entire concept of this story is an increased integration and cooperation amongst the axis... I am well aware of the otl issues, essentially your disagreement is about the entire pod of this story and something we would need to agree to disagree with
5. 35 pilots in otl went through an extensive training program to get certified for graf zeppelin (with 900+ simulated landings with arrestor wires)... this is without her actually being brought up to working condition. during her trials and fitting out, these pilots and others could continue their training until they where profiecent. the fw-190 f with its rugged landing gear would be forgiving for a novice pilot (which they wouldn't be anyway because the gz pilots from otl ended up being used in other battles and achieving a lot of combat experience


other points

yorktown detected her at the END of a neutrality patrol and broke contact. the germans didn't break the neutrality line in daylight so even if spotted by aircraft outside this zone, they would lose her at night, allowing gz to steam within strike range and launch her flock

without barbarossa to this point, the germans had sufficient air resources to cover the fleet in the bay with single engine fighters and twin engined fighters to at least keep larger british formations away

japanese subs sank carriers in the war so one of them damaging saratoga is well within the realm

 

[phx1138]

1. 38 ships is nothing, when they encounter a convoy with 50 plus ships and get the element of surprise

Wrong. Sinking a merchant, or any ship, with guns takes time. It's not "one shot, one kill" even with 11-15" guns.

...a convoy with 50 plus ships ...

These were mightily rare in '41 AFAIK. Blackett's OR hadn't persuaded RN larger convoys were actually better protected yet.

2. depending on which battle it was Brinkmann's orders where not the same on all sorties

I perhaps should have clarified: it's the same 38 ship sinking sortie, where there was strong escort & his orders were "avoid".

...however with a serious surface threat, it isn't unreasonable to transfer a few squadrons worth to increase the lethality and range of patrols from canadian bases not asb at all

Perhaps. I'm wondering how you pry them from the hands of Harris.

4. the entire concept of this story is an increased integration and cooperation amongst the axis...

Understood. With Italy, I think you're entirely in bounds. The degree of change to bring Japan this close is extraordinary, & AFAI can tell, unexplained; a bit of oil doesn't get it, IMO.

...with 900+ simulated landings with arrestor wires... this is without her actually being brought up to working condition. during her trials and fitting out...

This is extremely different from actual operational traps. It takes a long time to get good at it with the ship at speed with the deck rolling & pitching like a cork & looking no bigger than a postage stamp. Inexperienced naval aviators, even with MLS, frequently hit the ramp; in the '40s, with only Paddles to guide them, & expect Graf Zep to be able to recover a third of her birds, if lucky.

yorktown detected her at the END of a neutrality patrol and broke contact. the germans didn't break the neutrality line in daylight so even if spotted by aircraft outside this zone, they would lose her at night, allowing gz to steam within strike range and launch her flock

Given the state of affairs, with FDR's strong support for the Brits (& IIRC, an already express "Shoot on sight" order for U-boats), I flat don't believe Yorktown would break off. I'd expect the task force to close & maintain visual contact, & force Brinkmann to decide, "Am I going to press ahead & risk an incident, or turn back?" Even if only as a decoy move. So does the U.S. TF maintain contact? I'd say yes. Even if not, the loss of time leaves Nagumo alone. And his ability to catch the Pacific Fleet napping is still a miracle, IMO.

japanese subs sank carriers in the war so one of them damaging saratoga is well within the realm

Sank, yes. So did U.S. subs. (Shinano comes to mind.) "Shadowed", no. Most sinkings were blind luck; for a sub, pursuing a task force making 25kt, escorted by numerous destroyers, is not only unlikely (good luck keeping up), it's stupid (those cans, let alone aircraft, even if nobody shoots {& an "accident" where the I-boat just disappears isn't impossible}, will force you down & the CV gets away).

[Fubuki] traveled to the Atlantic with Ruyjo and refueled en route to her destination.

Which leaves Ruyjo floundering somewhere in mid-Atlantic with no fuel...since IJN were even more incompetent at underway refuelling than your Germans seem to be (and I'm far from convinced the Germans could even do it OTL; IJN was terrible at it). Even refuelling in German-controlled Alex, she'd probably never get home again.

... and despite existing powerful defenses at pearl they got caught with their pants down (pearl had more than 75 fighters, radar and two divisions of troops along with a divisions worth of AA guns and fleet AA guns and they still got slaughtered)

Which proves nothing. In fact, AUS expected an attack at the CZ as more likely than at Pearl, so they'd be better prepared. And IIRC, they were better equipped & organized to detect something like this, so Fubuki (which I still maintain should be an old Momo, not a nearly brand-new ship; Campbelltown wasn't a Fletcher) would be detected & told to turn back or be fired on. Even in peacetime, armed forces are authorized for self-defense, & a ship that looks determined to ram can be stopped with fire if needed.

...as all axis forces adopt the FW-190...

And you're going to have IJAAF/IJNAF overturn over a decade of inclination & toward & selection of more maneuverable types over faster ones how, exactly?

They had 90 minutes between when ward sunk a japanese sub at the outer pearl harbor bouey to when the first wave struck and didn't do anything...

Actually, it was over four hours from first contact by Ward. The Pearl Harbor duty officer didn't pass word to Kimmel. (I've heard the DO was, in fact, asleep...)

It would seem to me that the Japanese aircraft carrier would have been spotted in the Indian Ocean by the British. Thus the British and the Americans would have known that something was up. Also I recall you having Hitler tell tha Japanese that their codes had been broken. Well the fact that the codes would have suddenly changed would also have sent alarm bells going all over the intelligence community. The US would have been in a much higher state of alert.

I missed this before. How did the Germans know Japan's codes were broken by the U.S.? Don't tell me Automedon; the Japanese didn't believe it when they were told OTL. I do find it fairly likely the Allies would suspect something was up. The Brits have also had about 4mo to break the new Enigma, so the "blackout" TTL may be overstated; don't forget how "chatty" Luftwaffe was... And the Japanese already had changed JN-25 in December '41. I see no reason Japan would switch to an entirely new cypher system, rather than simply change the JN-25 or Purple codebook (as OTL 12/41 & 6/42 for JN-25). That being so, it's likely the U.S. will have read enough to reveal the approach to Pearl. Also, Hypo was reading the callsign cypher, IIRC, so Ryujo's movements could be monitored without air patrol.

Yorktown whilst not suffering any damage had expended all of her fighters and had a mere 36 aircraft left at her disposal...

So USN is now stripping NASs of every available TBF, TBD, F4F, & F2A to re-equip her...?

Wasp had gotten her fires under control and there was no damage to her powerplant or watertight integrity, however her flight deck was riddled and she would require months in the dry dock.

Not if Yorktown's experience at Midway is any indication: 3 days, with only fight deck & elevator damage. Which, by my count, leaves Lady Lex in PTO & Hornet (& possibly Ranger, better suited to convoy escort or a/c ferry duty) in ATO unaccounted for or untouched. And, let's see, Essex should be entering service any day now...

Argus was the least lucky, damage control procedures for carrier vs carrier battles just hadn't been adopted yet.

Umm...damage control is damage control. Unless I'm very mistaken.

Firefighting equipment was unable to cope with such intense and growing damage...

This would not be true, IMO; of all navies, RN has probably the most experience dealing with fire aboard ships, even carriers.

Sommerville was also acutely aware that carrier strikes at night (the sun had set as the damage was evaluated) where unproven and dangerous.

In fact, RN was probably best equipped of any navy for night CV battle, given Stringbags, & nobody, including the IJN, had effective night defenses. More to the point, IJN AA was derisively bad, even compared to the pretty lousy standard of the era; the effectiveness of shipboard AA is very exaggerated (even allowing for retraining; it was also a matter of sheer number of guns).

In short, Somerville should be looking for night CV action against the retreating enemy. And King & Pound should be talking within days about outfitting U.S. CVs with Swordfish (even building them in U.S., Canada, Oz, NZ, SAfr, & India...), & joint training in night CV ops.

An unrelated question: did the increased co-operation between Germany & Italy, & the increased success of the Axis in the Med, change the U.S. response? Did FDR, for instance, offer more DDs on the DDs for Bases deal? Did he add subs? Did he persuade Congress to increase shipbuilding rates for Fletchers (or, maybe more probably, Gleaveses)? For Tambors? Did USN accelerate the F4U? Did AAF accelerate the P-38? Does that put P-38s @Pearl when Nagumo arrives? Or F4Us in the training pipeline when Norfok is hit? Or more fleet boats in Hawaii & Manila? And does a U.S. Customs official copy the maru code TTL, not knowing ONI had already broken it, as he did OTL? I suggest TTL he doesn't. Breaks shouldn't all favor the Axis...

... mendez munez was sunk by torpedoes the others you mentioned including admiral hipper are damaged and require some months in the dry dock

St Nazaire? Does Campbelltown get there first? (No, I'll bet...)

plus autistic Japan.

Ah, yes, the notoriously incompetent IJA leadership. And Japan's 19th Century engineering capacity. Even if she's licence-producing FW190s & MkB42s, how's she going to deliver them? IJN convoy escort doctrine is a joke. Japanese capability to replace shipping losses is laughable. And that's without fixing the Mk14. Or Nimitz's questionable deployments. Fix those, Japan implodes much sooner than OTL. Call the ASBs.

 

[phx1138]

FDR wanted America to be caught with it's pants down.

What's the politest way I can tell you how completely full of sh*t that is? FDR'd been trying for a year to provoke Hitler, or Congress, to declare war. He wanted to aid the Brits. War with Japan does not do that. He knew it. Winston knew it. In fact, Winston himself said, "Let's not have more war" (i.e., with Japan). He wanted the U.S. to do everything possible to intimidate Japan so she wouldn't attack. If she did, he knew resources now available for Britain would instead go to U.S. armed forces, and they did.