Rome-Berlin-Nanjing

Well what if instead of Japan joining the axis powers, Germany stayed friendly with China instead, and China signed the Tripartite Pact in place of Japan?

And to make it interesting lets have the war with Japan and China delayed.
 
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Japan would be able to amass more of its own military (IE building and movements) and would likely join the Allies since they're the side fighting China, in the end they'd probably keep Korea, and would create atleast two Chinese puppet-states.

The Cold War would turn out differently to, that is it would probably be three way.

Japan would probably devlop its own nuclear weapon program and become a Nuclear state.


Beyond one decade or so I don't know really, they may go the way of reform, or they may go bat-shit crazy and cause WWIII.
 
You mean Japan wouldn't side with America in the cold war?

Basically, yeah, I mean the only reason they did was because we disarmed them and forced a constitution on them that prevents them from ever truly being able to defend themselves.

If they came out on the winning side, especially with their own sphere of influence and an intact, if not stronger military, their would be no reason to join the US side. They may agree with the US on some things, and would probably be closer to the US than the USSR, but overall their would be no reason for Japan to become an American ally, well unless something went horrible during the war and America saved Japan's ass I guess.
 
Japan definitely would not be a third equal group in the Cold War. It would probably be more like China was, having its own sphere of influence, but not the same sheer power as America or the Soviet Union. I can see it as somewhat independent, but definitely an American ally. Japan and the Soviet Union were never very close, but Japan and the US could be natural friends after a WW2 alliance.
 
China drops the alliance like a hot potato once war breaks out and Chiang realizes Germany can do exactly zip to help him vs Japan, the UK, or the USSR?

Bruce
 
Well what if instead of Japan joining the axis powers, Germany stayed friendly with China instead, and China signed the Tripartite Pact in place of Japan?

And to make it interesting lets have the war with Japan and China delayed.

What are the changes to the KMT's consolidation of power? Does the Xi'an incident still take place, and does German aid somehow lead to a successful campaign against Mao?

Suppose that by 1940 you've got a KMT that's got an ahistorically strong position. They've got a respectable force defending the Manchurian frontier and the coasts. What can they conceivably do?

Grab Mongolia during an ATL Barbarossa? They can't grab Vladivostock, unless they take on Japan first.

Go after the west, seizing Indochina and Burma? It's going to be a long slog, no rapid advances past Hanoi. Zero naval power projection, lines overstretching, and boom. Japan shows up on the scene to lend their old allies the British a helping hand.

If they're feeling pretty damn good, they can take a shot at Japan. Maybe they can take Manchuria. They're going to take a hammering, though.

I can't see any of this really helping the european axis. Best case, they tie up some Russians after they bleed their way through Manchuria. But the Russians were historically tied up there. Allied situation's stronger than OTL.

I'm not sure what a timeline from Japan's perspective would be like in this scenario. If there was no Marco Polo incident, I imagine any oil embargo would be postponed. If they don't join Britain in the war, perhaps a later, less successful attack on the Allies?
 
Honestly, I don't see much option for China outside of fighting Japan. I assume Japan's going to exert the same sort of pressure as it did OTL, and with China still in a state of civil war, there's just not the spare men and equipment to sent to Indochina while still defending against the Japanese onslaught. And with a better supplied Japan, China's pretty much even more fucked.
 
This is a very interesting scenario to think of...It could really kill off China and see it divided...I suppose we could have big German help killing off the communists early as China turns more and more fascist...

Japan definitely would not be a third equal group in the Cold War. It would probably be more like China was, having its own sphere of influence, but not the same sheer power as America or the Soviet Union. I can see it as somewhat independent, but definitely an American ally. Japan and the Soviet Union were never very close, but Japan and the US could be natural friends after a WW2 alliance.

Indeed.
Sort of a anti-China if you will. Nominally capitalist and so with the US but it ends up siding with Russia and against the US on many things.
But...The Soviet presence on the border will make it more anti-Soviets than China was anti-US.
 
This is a very interesting scenario to think of...It could really kill off China and see it divided...I suppose we could have big German help killing off the communists early as China turns more and more fascist...

It really depends on how it goes early on. I personally think China would end up split between the bits that belong to Japan, and Communist China. When the Soviet Union inevitably invades, it'd see to that. The only way I can see China not becoming Communist in this situation is a huge amount of German support, and I just don't think Germany really had enough spare money and materials to send over at the time.
 
Solomaxwell6 said:
Japan definitely would not be a third equal group in the Cold War. It would probably be more like China was, having its own sphere of influence, but not the same sheer power as America or the Soviet Union. I can see it as somewhat independent, but definitely an American ally. Japan and the Soviet Union were never very close, but Japan and the US could be natural friends after a WW2 alliance.

Really depends on events. WW2 would have to be mapped out, but if China doesn't go communist, which is not unreasonable, then all of the anti-imperialist movements are unlikely to be overtly communist either, or atleast the communists would have less influence due to weaker backing. If Japan hasn't invaded half these countries her reputation is likely to be better. Japan can then pick up the slack, that is to say provide a haven and ideal for rebels, as was already happening, much better than the US or the USSR, or atleast it has the potential to do so.

Measuring the Soviet economy is difficult, but in OTL I think the Japanese economy atleast gave it a run for its money if it wasn't infact superior. Give the Japanese nuclear weapons and a moderate army, something which is hardly beyond the realm of possibility, combined with a world-systems type domination over most of south east Asia, then, while they might be weaker in terms of raw military power, they would definately be a third pole. Okay they might not have the ability to mess about in the middle east, which seems to have been the definition of a great power, but influence over a good chunk of Asia isn't exactly nothing. It really depends on what happens to China in the meantime though. There is also the possibility that the Japanese throw it all away due to arrogantly insisting on their superiority and being too overly exploitative and brutal. Then again, its not as if the communists wanted for supporters.

Personally I suspect that the US (and others) wouldn't be happy with Japan attacking China even if China had close links with Berlin. Probably because the British and especially the Americans would be going out of their way to have these links servered in order to apply their own and wouldn't want Japan confusing the issue. In real terms, beyond the limited assistance that occured in OTL before it was cut off, a Sino-German pact would be a fairly pointless arrangement. The mere threat of the US leaving China to Japan would probably be enough to see this alliance severed.
 
Hm the abv for otl axis was Roberto, can anyone think of abbreviation for Rome-Berlin-Nanjing that sounds like a name? The capitals can be in any order. I tried then my brain died when i couldn't think of anything. :eek:
 

Deleted member 9338

Indeed.
Sort of a anti-China if you will. Nominally capitalist and so with the US but it ends up siding with Russia and against the US on many things.
But...The Soviet presence on the border will make it more anti-Soviets than China was anti-US.

I see them as a thrid post war power if they kept their navy strong. Naval airpower would be an efficient way to go after China and aiding in the Free French in taking back IndoChina from the Vichy forces.
 
Whe need a stronger China in the early 1930's. and a different Japan
1917
Japan occupies Germany's China Cessions

1919
US asks Japan to send troops to Russia to help extract the Czech Legion.
In a narrow vote the Diet decides not to send the troops [OTL in a narrow vote - they authorized 7,000, the Generals sent 70,000]
Both the Generals and the US are upset by this Vote.

1920
A low intensity, behind the scene, War is being waged between the Japanese Militants, and the Diet Politicos.

1921
The Japanese Militants' plan to take over the Japanese Government is delayed by the Great Kyoto Earthquake.
However plans like these are very time sensitive, and during the delay, the details are leaked to the Politicos.
The behind the Scene War comes into the open.

In order to keep the knowledge gained during the war -The German War Department begins constrution of a new Submarine Shipyard in Holland.
They also begin looking for a site for Larger Surface ShipYard

1922
As part of the need for funds to rebuild, and part as the conflict with the Militants, the Diet accepts the Washington Naval restrictions and cancels the 8:8 Naval building program.
In a agreement with China, Germany begins construction of a new Shipyard in Shaoxing. The Agreement forbids any kind of Foreign Concession, and guarantees training for Chinese.

1923
Debate begins in Japan on a new Constitution, One of the main areas of Debate are provisions to rein in the Military and establish greater Civilian Control.
It is decided to complete the existing 8:8 hulls as Aircraft carriers. However no new Capital Ships Keels will be laid down.

1924
Out of Work, Former Workers, from Germany's Naval Shipyards, Naval Architects to Plumbers, Electricians, & Steel Workers, begin arriving in China.
While post Versailles Germany Has very little free capital for investments, Pulled by The Germans that remained in China post War, China is one of the Main areas for what little German has.

Reports from the former German Concessions, about Japan's treatment of the remaining German Businesses, and the treatment of the German/Chinese Offspring, begins souring German/Japanese relations.

1925
Under the New Constitution, Japan begins a major attempt to Japanize Korea, and the Pacific territories,
OTL, Japan blow Hot/Cold, on these attempts, Never able to come to a consensus. ITTL Japan has made up It Mind to go all the way with Japanation.

1925 - 1928
Several German Aircraft Manufacturers set up subsidiary Plants in China, Manufactoring German Planes for the International Market.

1929
Krupp Arms begins construction of a Factory in China that will build the Guns for the Ships built in being Shaoxing.

1931
The KMT Government sends troops north into Manchuria, This will begin a Decade long attempt to gain control of the territory from the Warlords.
After several border incidents between Japanese & Chinese troops in the Trans Yalu Mountains, Japan begins a series of Fortifications in the Mountains on both sides of the Yalu.


1934
Alarmed at China's increasing Buildup, The Diet loosens the purse-strings. It begins a Military Build up, Including several new large Carriers, & Cruisers.
ITTL due to the attempts to rein in the Militants, Japan had never built up to the Limit under the WNT. Here they are, including replacing some of the older ships.

German Pilots begin training in China along with the Chinese Army Air Corp.
OTL this training took place in Russia.

1935
Japanese-Chinese relations deteriorate as China take a more militant attitude to Japans historical concessions in Manchuria.
OTL this is the year of the War of the Wall, where Japan forced China to accept a Demilitaried Zone 100 miles south of the Great Wall.
ITTL, There is just more Border Incidents in the Trans Yalu Mountains.
Japan also begins covertly supplying Arms and Ammo to some of the Warlords.

1936
Germany licenses the Production of the Panzer 1 to China and helps construct a Manufacturing Plant.

1937
In response to the Chinese Panzers Japan Licenses the Russian T-26.

1938
Japan begins talks with Britain about renewing the Old Anglo-Japanese Naval Treaty.
China begins manufactoring the Panzer II

1939
Germany invades Poland -WW2 begins

1940
Fall of France.
China joins the Axis, Occupies Vietnam, US Imposes a Embargo on China.
Japan -Britain renew the Naval Treaty.

1941
Germany invades Russia, Chinese Troops Enter Siberia, Britain DoW's China.
China attacks Malaysia, Korea. Invades Indonesia.
 
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