Romanov PLC

That is kind of challenge, as it is not one of these "it almost happened IOTL" scenarious, but still propability is bigger than 0% and time travel or UFO landing is not required for IT to happen. Of course, Romanov PLC is easily doable with late 18th POD (for example Konstantin Pavlovich enforced on the throne) but I'm thinking about earlier times and mid 17th century POD. What is required? Change of personality of Tsar Alexei I and some unfortunate infants living to adulthood.
So the first step is: make Alexei less religious and more supportive for ideas of Ordin-Nashchokin. Afanasy Ordin-Nashchokin regarded Swedes and Ottomans as worse enemies than Poles and for him access to the Baltic was more valuable than unstable Ukraine ruined by decades of war. He also advocated for more moderate peace terms with PLC in Andrusovo, while according to Tsar no Orthodox land should be left for Poles.
Second change: these infants, who would be more fortunate ITTL are Dmitri Alexeevich, oldest son of Alexei (IOTL 1648-1649), and Maria Anna Vasa (1650-1651) daughter of John Casimir.

IOTL Polish delegation at Niemieża, desperate to achieve peace in the East in face of Swedish invasion, promised election to Polish throne to Alexei-that was at the time when PLC was in deep, deep trouble, otherwise such radical proposition would never be made and Orthodox Russian Tsar as King of Poland was hardly something that would be accepted. ITTL at Niemieża suggestion of marriage between Russian tsarevich and Polish królewna would likely appear for the first time and may not be forgotten even if Deluge is over. Polish Vasas were not willing to give up their claims to Swedish throne even when their chances to return to Stockholm were practically non-existing. Thus John Casimir, who has living daughter ITTL, may hope, that alliance with Russia could make it possible for his descendants to return to the throne that is "rightfully" his. Romanov candidature should also get support of Lithuanian nobility (as Grand Duchy of Lithuania, being weaker side in conflicts with Russia, was most interested in keeping peace with eastern neighbour).

So we have these changes:
-John Casimir has surviving daughter, whom he would marry to Alexei Alexeevich (who ITTL has living older brother and is not his father's heir in Russia). So Conde and d'Enghien are not even considered by him as possible successors. There is no Vivente Rege campaign (IOTL Louis XIV paid for it, unlike L14 Alexei has no money for it). So likely no civil war in PLC. After Deluge there is little love for foreigners, but Alexei Alexeevich at least would be familiar with language and customs-Polish language at the time was commonly used at Russian court. And unlike French dukes Tsarevich offers significant political gains. And if said Tsarevich is married to heiress of Jagiellon blood he'd have obvious advantage over other candidates.
-PLC-Russian war after Deluge: if Tsar wants his son to be elected he'd be more willing to make earlier peace with PLC, that is true also for John Casimir-IOTL he hoped, that success in the war with Russia would increase his chances to enforce Vivente Rege, ITTL he would not have such motivation.
-Habsburgs and Ottomans: Ottomans obviously would not be happy (at least Russia and PLC would have common enemy for the next generation), but what about Habsburgs? PLC and Russia conflicted with Ottomans would be Habsburg allies, but if your allies are too strong, it also is not good.
 
The Habsburg would not be too much worried about this Russian PLC as likely it would never be strong enough to seriously undermine them... Sure Austria would never be able to expand there but the strong allies against Ottomans will be enough (plus a Russian PLC would be a great buffer state between Austria and Russia, most likely securing borders and alliances). Alexei and Maria Anna’s son and heir will most likely marrying an Archduchess (as Austria often offered brides for the Kings of Poland) and likely the intermarrying will go on for long time (we will see also some princesses of Poland as Holy Roman Empresses). You know who will be the great loser here? Prussia or better Brandenburg as here is pretty unlikely who the elector will be able to get the elevation of his Duchy as Kingdom and is more likely who he will be forced to give back the Duchy to its overlord the King of Poland
 
Habsburgs were seeking for friendly relations with Moscow since 15th century, IOTL when John Casimir fought against Russia during 1660s their sympathy was on Russian side once it became clear, that John Casimir wants Bourbon duke on Polish throne. But they may be concerned, that Romanovs are getting to strong.

John Casimir was also Duke of Opole and Racibórz. IOTL Queen Marie Louise Gonzaga wanted her niece and her Bourbon husband to inherit Opole after John Casimir, Emperor refused-last thing he would be interested in was strenghtening Bourbon influence in Central Europe, so no surprise. ITTL John Casimir would want his daughter (male line Vasas were meant to held Opole, so with daughter it is not guaranteed that Emperor would agree) to get the Duchy, which may work or not. If Habsburgs agree then Alexei Alexeevich would be duke in HRE.
 
Habsburgs were seeking for friendly relations with Moscow since 15th century, IOTL when John Casimir fought against Russia during 1660s their sympathy was on Russian side once it became clear, that John Casimir wants Bourbon duke on Polish throne. But they may be concerned, that Romanovs are getting to strong.

John Casimir was also Duke of Opole and Racibórz. IOTL Queen Marie Louise Gonzaga wanted her niece and her Bourbon husband to inherit Opole after John Casimir, Emperor refused-last thing he would be interested in was strenghtening Bourbon influence in Central Europe, so no surprise. ITTL John Casimir would want his daughter (male line Vasas were meant to held Opole, so with daughter it is not guaranteed that Emperor would agree) to get the Duchy, which may work or not. If Habsburgs agree then Alexei Alexeevich would be duke in HRE.
They would most likely agree and try to get a match between Alexei’s heir and an Archduchess...
Romanovs will be divided in a Catholic and an Orthodox branch (as the religion is pretty important for both Kingdom) and their getting too strong is a non issue as Archduchess can be married in the Catholic branch who will be a buffer between Russia and Austria. If Russia was able to incorporate PLC in their main kingdom yes Habsburg will be really worried but here not much
 
They would most likely agree and try to get a match between Alexei’s heir and an Archduchess...
Romanovs will be divided in a Catholic and an Orthodox branch (as the religion is pretty important for both Kingdom) and their getting too strong is a non issue as Archduchess can be married in the Catholic branch who will be a buffer between Russia and Austria. If Russia was able to incorporate PLC in their main kingdom yes Habsburg will be really worried but here not much
Actually, a puppet Poland-Lithuania with Upper Silesia, Prussia and Pomerellia under a Romanov-Habsburg family is possible, as long as Russia removes the Ruthenian lands from PLC and keeps it dependent with Austria and Russia.
 
Actually, a puppet Poland-Lithuania with Upper Silesia, Prussia and Pomerellia under a Romanov-Habsburg family is possible, as long as Russia removes the Ruthenian lands from PLC and keeps it dependent with Austria and Russia.
Is pretty difficult who Poland will be able to acquire such strength to free itself from Russian and Austrian overlording (and giving them Opole would be a good move in establishing Austrian/Imperial overlording) specially if most often than not they intermarry with the Russian branch or Austrians (and that would likely creating an indirect intermarrying between Russian and Austria with maybe the two Empresses being sisters or the Polish niece/cousin of the Zar/Emperor married to the other heir/ruler...
 
Is pretty difficult who Poland will be able to acquire such strength to free itself from Russian and Austrian overlording (and giving them Opole would be a good move in establishing Austrian/Imperial overlording) specially if most often than not they intermarry with the Russian branch or Austrians (and that would likely creating an indirect intermarrying between Russian and Austria with maybe the two Empresses being sisters or the Polish niece/cousin of the Zar/Emperor married to the other heir/ruler...
If Poland has Cieszyn, Opole, Prussia and Pomerellia, the Ethnic Polish Provinces but without the Ruthenian Provinces, Poland can be turned into a Austro-Russian puppet similar to IOTL what Stalin did to Poland.
 
If Poland has Cieszyn, Opole, Prussia and Pomerellia, the Ethnic Polish Provinces but without the Ruthenian Provinces, Poland can be turned into a Austro-Russian puppet similar to IOTL what Stalin did to Poland.
PLC is not going to lose Ruthenia due to Tsarevich being elected. Opole was given to Polish Vasas and if Leopold allows, it would be given to Polish Romanovs, not to Poland.
 
PLC is not going to lose Ruthenia due to Tsarevich being elected. Opole was given to Polish Vasas and if Leopold allows, it would be given to Polish Romanovs, not to Poland.
They would allow that to pass to the Polish Romanovs.

That is for a long term not a short term plan, their short term plan would be to make the nobility loyal to both Austria and Russia to make Poland a buffer country and attackdog against Prussia.
 
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They would allow that to pass to the Polish Romanovs.

That is for a long term not a short term plan, their short term plan would be to make the nobility loyal to both Austria and Russia to make Poland a buffer country and attackdog against Prussia.
After Andrusovo Polish-Russian border remained stable for over century, despite fact, that PLC was puppetized by Russia for decades before partitions.
 
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